Why are Central Banks Taking Guard Again?

Inflation is not roaring, but it is stirring again—and for rate-setters, the lesson from 2022 is stark: act early, or risk being forced into harsher tightening later with credibility on the line.

Michael Debabrata Patra

US Fed

Genset Maker Turns Data Centre Uptime Paranoia Into Predictable Payouts

Cummins India rides the data centre boom, yet the real rerating case lies in recurring maintenance cash flows, not in the next capex spike.

Krishnadevan V

The Deposit Squeeze Is Exposing Banks’ Balance Sheet Blind Spots

As deposits trail credit growth, banks need a sharper balance sheet strategy to manage risk and keep growth sustainable as customer habits shift.

K. Srinivasa Rao

From NYAY to AI: How Jobless Growth Is Forcing Universal Basic Income Back on the Table

Artificial intelligence is reshaping India's job market just as welfare politics becomes increasingly entrenched, bringing Universal Basic Income, once dismissed as politically unviable, back into the spotlight.

Rakesh Khar

When Precision Technology Becomes The Weapon of The Weak

Stronger powers dominated traditional battlefields by outspending weaker opponents. But that no longer holds true with precision technology as even a relatively inexpensive armed drone can outsmart sophisticated defence systems costing millions.

Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain (Retd)

India's Fiscal Stress Predated the West Asia Shock

India's rupee and bonds weakened before the US-Iran crisis, signalling investor concern over debt, state deficits and RBI support, not oil alone.

Dr Apoorva Javadekar

How Modi Has Remade India

Over the last 12 years, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has overseen dizzying progress in economic modernization and state capacity-building, as well as dismaying setbacks on institutional independence and minority inclusion. This record offers important insights into how India will navigate the 21st century.

Shashi Tharoor

Columnists

Michael Debabrata Patra

Michael Patra is an economist and former RBI Deputy Governor.

Abheek Barua

Abheek is an Independent Economist and the Former Chief Economist at HDFC Bank.

Ajay Srivastava

Ajay Srivastava is the founder of the Global Trade Research Initiative.

Vijay Chauhan

Vijay Singh Chauhan, a former IRS official, is a Senior Visiting Fellow at ICPP, Ashoka University

Dhananjay Sinha

Dhananjay, a D-School alum, is CEO and Co-Head of Equities at Systematix Group.

Kirti Tarang Pande

Kriti is a psychologist specialising in mental health, org behaviour, and brand strategy

Srinath Sridharan

Srinath is an author, corporate advisor, and independent director on corporate boards.

Sharmila Chavaly

Ex-civil servant Chavaly held key Railways, Finance roles; specialises in infra & PPPs

Nilanjan Banik

Nilanjan Banik, Professor at Mahindra University, specialises in trade and development economics.

Rahul Ghosh

Rahul Ghosh is a banking and risk expert.

Rajesh Mahapatra

Rajesh Mahapatra is the former Editor of The Press Trust of India

Krishnadevan V

Krishnadevan is Editorial Director at BasisPoint Insight.

Dev Chandrasekhar

Chandra advises companies on big-picture narratives on strategy and markets.

Kalyan Ram

Kalyan Ram co-founded Cogencis. He now leads BasisPoint Insight.

R. Gurumurthy

Gurumurthy is an ex-central banker who handled markets, and later, financial stability for RBI.

Arvind Mayaram

Arvind Mayaram, former Finance Secretary, is Chairman of the Institute of Development Studies, Jaipur.

Vivek Kaul

Vivek Kaul is a writer and an economic commentator.

The Bureau

Equities Rise; Rupee Slides Before Fed Remarks

Risk appetite mixed as AI rally offsets lingering Middle East tensions

Kotak Mahindra Bank to Acquire Deutsche Bank's India Retail, Wealth Businesses

HDFC Bank Names Former Finance Secretary & CEC Rajiv Kumar as Part-Time Chairman

Fed Hike Case Moves to Payrolls Week

Equities Retreat; Bond Yields Extend Decline

India Quality-Control Reform May Ease BIS Delays, but Add Discretion - GTRI

India Anti-Dumping Probe on Transformer Steel May Raise Grid Costs - GTRI

Flawed Design, Poor Planning Make Extreme Heat Conditions Worse For Indian Cities

The Foster Mother of Lodhi Garden

Shyam Sundar Sharma

BasisPoint Groupthink

Opinion

RBI is Forward-Looking About Growth, Not Inflation

Growth gets preventive care; inflation must first materialise, spread and bring witnesses. The June minutes preserve the case for rate cuts while making hikes clear a far higher bar.

Kalyan Ram

Meeting China’s Militarisation of AI

China’s military AI push could reshape border, maritime and nuclear stability. India needs speed, scale and a sovereign defence-AI stack—at once.

Prakash Nanda

Travel well, Mr Greenspan

Daily insights on the decisions, signals and risks shaping central bank policy across the world’s major economies.

BasisPoint Insight

What the RBI’s Annual Report Reveals Beyond the Record Surplus

The RBI’s record surplus transfer grabbed headlines, but a careful reading of its Accounts in conjunction with the rest of its Annual Report reveals deeper shifts in income, risk provisioning, and balance-sheet management.

Michael Debabrata Patra

Masterclass with Michael Patra

Central Banking 101: When Monetary Anchors Collapse

As monetary targeting broke down globally, central banks were pushed again into uncertainty and regime change.

Michael Debabrata Patra

Worrying Signals from Inflation Data

CPI remains below 4%, but producer prices, wholesale inflation, and a delayed monsoon point to mounting pipeline pressures that could test the RBI's wait-and-watch strategy.

Deepa Vasudevan

Dark Patterns, Customer Trust and the Future of Conduct Regulation

RBI's latest conduct rules now move beyond disclosure to target dark patterns that erode customer choice, trust and market discipline in finance.

Anupam Sonal

Rupee Nears Another Goldilocks Phase as External Risks Recede

Falling crude prices, stronger capital inflows and RBI measures are easing pressure on the rupee, setting the stage for a more stable USD/INR outlook.

Gaura Sen Gupta

India’s Export Story Is Written by its States

India’s export map is not just a trade-policy outcome. It reflects where production capacity, industrial clusters and supplier ecosystems have actually accumulated.

Sagari Gupta

From Documentation to Diagnosis - Bank Supervision’s Clinical Turn

The Supervisory Questions should be Different – For the Outcomes to be Forward-Looking

Rabi N. Mishra

Between Certainty and Chaos Lies the Business of Being Human

As policymakers, businesses and markets navigate an increasingly fragmented world, every difficult choice becomes a lesson in trust, resilience and uncertainty.

Phynix

Opinion

India and Europe Are Courting Again, but Still Misreading the Signals

Whether in India or Europe, the fear is real. The gap between fear and action is where diplomacy dies.

Kirti Tarang Pande

Your Dopamine Order Is Out for Delivery

A Korean website where imaginary meals never arrive reveals a deeper truth: anticipation, not consumption, has become the modern economy's currency.

R. Gurumurthy

Week in Numbers: Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

High-frequency indicators pointed to a significant slowdown in growth in May. However, with the ceasefire between the US and Iran holding and energy prices easing, growth is likely to improve in the coming months.

Datametricx

Five Reasons Why Modi Should Attend Khamenei’s Funeral

When Modi visits Tehran, it would be an assertion of India’s standing in the world, still fighting forces of Anglo-American imperialism in the neighbourhood.

Rajesh Ramachandran

Basis Life

In God We Trust; Everyone Else Gets Audited

What happens after a donation slips into a hundi says less about God than it does about the species that invented both prayer and locks.

Krishnadevan V

Jio’s Interest Burden Is High, Yet Its Funding Pattern Is Comfortingly Normal

Jio Platforms’ funding mix of deferred payments, leases and capitalised interest mirrors how airports, roads and other capital-intensive projects get built.

Krishnadevan V

The RBI has Delayed Tightening Without Abandoning it

Falling crude has eased pressure for rate hikes, but inflation risks persist, giving the RBI more time without changing its eventual policy path.

Nishat Anjum

Richard Fargose

Alan Greenspan (1926–2026): The Godfather of the Modern Bubble

Greenspan gave markets the Greenspan put: an invisible Fed safety net that soothed every sell-off, until the bubbles got too big to ignore.

Vivek Kaul

Did British Rule Leave Indian Women Better Off in the Long Run?

A new study argues that British colonial institutions left a lasting legacy for women in India, improving employment, autonomy, and social outcomes.

Amitrajeet A. Batabyal*

When Too Many Board Seats Become a Corporate Governance Problem

Board limits mean little if directors can accumulate endless advisory roles. Good governance depends on engagement, not the number of prestigious names.

R. Gurumurthy

India’s Anomalous of Rural Wage Bounty

Rural wages jumped 17%, but the surge is a sampling artefact. Wage growth is the weakest in four years, even as reverse migration and El Niño threaten a further squeeze.

Dhananjay Sinha

The Contradiction at the Heart of ITC’s FMCG Strategy

ITC is betting that fragmented health and wellness niches can share its infrastructure and scale. The real test is FMCG’s share of profits.

Krishnadevan V

Central-Bank Balance Sheets: Ballast or Buoyancy?

A central bank’s balance sheet is more than an accounting record. Its structure shapes growth, credibility, capital flows and policy power.

V Thiagarajan

The Warsh Fed Less Talk, More Price Stability

Kevin Warsh's first Fed meeting signals a shift towards price stability, supply-side economics and fewer policy signals for markets.

Anuj Agarwal

Beyond the Taj

India’s tourism challenge runs deeper than infrastructure. Without safety, sustainability and trust, even its best-equipped destinations will struggle.

Sharmila Chavaly

India Won the Solar Race. Now Comes the Silicon Challenge

India has become a solar installation powerhouse. The tougher challenge now is building the cells and wafers behind those panels before dependence on China becomes a strategic liability.

Keshav Thakur

The Maestro, Warsh and the Dangerous Illusion of Forward Guidance

As Kevin Warsh questions forward guidance, Alan Greenspan’s legacy revives a central banking truth: credibility comes from honesty about uncertainty.

R. Gurumurthy

Can the Manchester Model Save Britain?

Following a decades-long effort to lay the foundations for economic dynamism, Greater Manchester has become the UK’s fastest-growing region. While the Manchester model cannot be precisely replicated at the national level, it does carry important lessons for outgoing Prime Minister Keir Starmer's likely successor.

Diane Coyle

Why Euroclearability Should Be India’s Next Bond-Market Reform

Tax reform has removed a major barrier to greater foreign participation in Indian government bonds. A carefully designed international settlement link should now be the next step.

Yield Scribe

RBI’s Capital Flows Strategy Faces Risks in a Rising Rate World

By relying on capital inflows and intervention instead of rate hikes, the RBI may be postponing inflation and currency pressures rather than resolving them.

Smita Roy Trivedi

Abhiman Das

The Right to Gravy and Entitlement 

This legal case could establish what has been secretly coveted, but publicly decried—entitlement.

Krishnadevan V

Warsh and Greenspan: The Maestro’s Playbook for the AI Age

Kevin Warsh’s emerging doctrine carries two unmistakable echoes of Alan Greenspan: data-driven discretion over forward guidance, and faith in productivity as a brake on inflation.

V Thiagarajan

Weak Monsoon has an Inflation Bias

Rainfall deficits push food prices up more sharply than rainfall surpluses bring them down

Shubhada Rao, Vivek Kumar, and Yuvika Singhal

India Needs a Tax-Led Push to Revive Private Sector R&D

India's R&D ambitions need more than grants. Restoring tax incentives may be the fastest way to lift private-sector innovation.

Sharmila Kantha

India’s Russian Oil Bet Faces a New Geopolitical Stress Test

India saved billions by buying discounted Russian crude. The G7's latest sanctions raise a harder question: has that bargain created a new vulnerability?

Sagari Gupta

The Coming Shakeout In India’s Wealth Management Platforms

India’s new wealth boutiques are learning that high-net-worth relationships are not quite as portable as their models implied

Krishnadevan V

Opinion

India-US BTA: Negotiating in the Shadow of a Collapsing Bargain

Trade agreements should create durable commercial gains for both sides. They should not function as protection payments against future unilateral actions.

Ajay Srivastava

Week in Numbers: Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

India’s WPI inflation and merchandise trade deficit remained elevated in May as the conflict in West Asia pushed up energy prices. Both are likely to ease if the ceasefire between the US and Iran holds and energy prices remain contained.

Datametricx

Why Markets, Policymakers And Businesses Need Humility

From the RBI's growth bias to AI funding, federalism and the monsoon, this week's stories show why certainty is often the most dangerous assumption.

Phynix

TCS is Best Primed for India Big IT’s Next Sovereign-AI Move

TCS has the infra, partners and people for AI—but lacks a proprietary foundation model, a single flagship AI platform, and a clearly articulated high‑risk capital bet.

Dev Chandrasekhar

Weak Monsoon Threat Raises Prospect of Wider Policy Intervention

A deficient monsoon poses risks to kharif output and food inflation, potentially requiring policymakers to deploy a mix of trade, fiscal, administrative and monetary measures.

G. Chandrashekhar

Why RBI must move from Prudential Oversight to Stewardship

As finance becomes more digital and interconnected, RBI's next challenge is not compliance but building a system-wide model of regulatory stewardship.

Anupam Sonal

Portugal Were Held by a Failure of Service, Not Their Captain

Portugal’s 1-1 draw exposed a lack of service, not a fading captain. Ronaldo was starved of chances while an elite midfield played safe all game.

Aarav Aher

Can the Rupee Go Global Without Leaving Home?

India wants a more international rupee, yet remains cautious about letting it circulate abroad. Can a global currency stay at home?

R. Gurumurthy

The Real NSE IPO Already Happened, The Listing Is Just Theatre

NSE’s “upcoming” IPO looks like a big debut, yet the hard work of going public is already done and the listing mostly rearranges the cap table.

Krishnadevan V

Telegram Ban: No Neat Answer To A NEET Failure

Telegram did not create examination leaks, and blocking it cannot substitute for root-cause analysis, effective accountability and institutional reform.

Srinath Sridharan

Producer Price Index to Sharpen India’s Inflation, GDP Data

India’s shift from WPI to PPI will sharpen inflation data, improve GDP deflation and align official statistics more closely with global norms.

Gaura Sen Gupta

India Should Discourage Excessive Investments in Equities

As money pours into equities, foreign investors cash out at lofty valuations, raising pressure on the rupee and creating wider economic risks.

Vivek Kaul

Opinion

Iran’s Victory Resets West Asia, Diminishes Israel, Offers India Opportunities

The Anglo-American Empire’s Iran setback should prompt the BJP-led ruling establishment to rethink its reflexive support for Israel. India must view West Asia with new power possibilities.

Rajesh Ramachandran

Why Cement's Next Battle Won't Be About Capacity

India's cement industry is entering a fifth act where networks, logistics, carbon efficiency and calcined clay may define value.

Chandrika Soyantar

When the Strongest Move Is Not to Move

As inflation risks collide with softer growth, the RBI's hold reflects a harder test of monetary policy: knowing when not to overreact.

Sparsh Chhabra

The US-Iran Agreement Is a First Step

The US-Iran agreement has calmed markets. But can it withstand the political and economic challenges ahead?

Mohamed A. El-Erian

From Prudential Sufficiency to System Stewardship

Basel III made banks safer, but today's risks lie across markets, technology and networks. Regulators are shifting towards system stewardship.

Anupam Sonal

After the Unicorn Rush, India's Start-ups Face a Reality Check

The first decade was about scale and valuation. The next will determine whether India's start-ups can build businesses that endure.

Rakesh Khar

India’s Balance of Payments: Time for a New Paradigm

Foreign capital solved yesterday's problem. It may now be standing in the way of tomorrow's growth.

Jayanth R. Varma

What Did The Green Revolution in India Do To Farm Size-Productivity Relationship?

Small and very large farms are highly productive, while medium-sized ones are the least. The Green Revolution aided the use of high-yielding varieties, and steepened the gradient of technology adoption, enhancing productivity and resulting in a U-shaped pattern.

Amitrajeet A. Batabyal*

India's Diagnostics Boom Is Becoming a Consumer Subscription Story

The market thinks diagnostics companies sell tests. The underlying mechanism rewards companies that turn occasional patients into recurring consumers.

Krishnadevan V

When Vedanta Meets Wall Street’s Trillion-Dollar Valuations

Trillion-dollar valuations have turned markets metaphysical. Vedanta may explain price, value, and belief better than spreadsheets.

R. Gurumurthy

Credit Surge Tests Banks’ Liquidity Defences and ALM Discipline

Rapid credit expansion is outpacing deposit growth, forcing banks to rethink liquidity management and build more durable ALM strategies.

K. Srinivasa Rao

Could Indonesia’s Sovereign Fund Show India a Better Way?

Indonesia’s Dananatara offers lessons in managing state assets. India may need a more unified model to unlock value and fund growth.

Abheek Barua

The Warsh Reset and Four Ways the Fed Could Change

Kevin Warsh could reshape Fed communication, inflation signals, balance-sheet policy and employment goals, marking a decisive break from the Powell era.

V Thiagarajan

India’s Sovereign AI Push Gets a Tailwind from Sarvam’s Round

Sarvam’s $234 million raise makes it a unicorn but exposes a tougher question: can India really fund sovereign AI at the scale that now counts?

Krishnadevan V

Two Chairs, One Question in Banking Governance

Separate roles do not guarantee better governance. Banking oversight ultimately depends on independent judgement, competence and the willingness to challenge.

R. Gurumurthy

India’s PLI Push Needs an Exit Test

India’s PLI schemes show strong output gains, but without exit criteria, temporary support risks becoming permanent industrial policy by default.

Sagari Gupta

When Strategic Partnership Becomes Strategic Dependence

As Washington grows more transactional and the world becomes more fragmented, India may need to reassess how much strategic autonomy it truly possesses.

Anand Venkatanarayanan

When States Compete, Can Economics Trump Politics?

As states battle for capital, Niti Aayog faces a crucial test: can economics trump politics in India's growth story?

Rakesh Khar

Netanyahu Wanted This War; He’s Getting Trump’s Peace

The Israeli prime minister now faces the likelihood that the regime he swore to destroy will outlast him.

Bobby Ghosh

Corporate India Rushes to Lock in Lower Borrowing Costs

Corporate India shifts from survival borrowing to opportunistic borrowing as bond yields retreat.

Venkatakrishnan Srinivasan

State Bonds Start Pricing Fiscal Discipline

As states rely more on markets, investors are beginning to reward stronger balance sheets and penalise fiscal slippage.

Sujit Kumar*

RBI’s FCNR Swap Faces a Basel Reality Check

RBI’s FCNR swap may echo 2013, but Basel rules, dollar-funding stress and forward liabilities make this a harder trade.

V Thiagarajan

The Luxury of Patience in an Impatient World

A Japanese bestseller, an RBI dilemma and an AI bubble all point to the same uncomfortable question: when does buying time stop being a strategy?

Phynix

Week in Numbers: Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

The latest retail inflation and current account deficit data were positive surprises despite the war in West Asia.

Datametricx

Geopolitics

Can Military Superiority Still Deliver Political Success?

From Vietnam to Ukraine and Gaza, modern wars reveal a hard truth: battlefield success is no longer a reliable path to desired political outcomes.

Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain (Retd)

Why This Rupee Episode Is Different

The rupee’s decline is the mildest in decades. The bigger challenge is converting temporary inflows into lasting external stability.

Sameer Narang

The One Word That Explains SEBI's Entire Reform Agenda

SEBI wants capital, information and liquidity to move faster. The next market shock will reveal whether speed comes at a cost.

Krishnadevan V

Beyond Minimum Wages: Karnataka and India's Search for a New Growth Compact

It is important for India to look at other measures such as lower transaction costs, faster business approvals and a more predictable regulatory environment to strengthen workers, without weakening competitiveness.

Arvind Mayaram

Will Better District-Level Data Help Address Regional Inequalities?

One region can skew the data for the entire state and hence sub-regional calculation of GDP is expected to improve evidence-based, decentralised policymaking and targeted interventions across India’s approximately 800 administrative units.

Sharmila Kantha

Opinion

The Unravelling of the Trinamool

Electoral defeat, internal revolt and Bengal's shifting political landscape have left Mamata Banerjee confronting the gravest crisis of her career.

Rajesh Ramachandran

Should India Create More Cooperative Banks, or Better Banks?

As the RBI considers issuing new cooperative bank licences after a 22-year pause, the real question is whether India needs more banks at all or better banks.

Alpana Killawala

RBI Can Cushion the Rupee, But West Asia Still Holds the Trigger

The rupee may avoid a slide towards 100 for now, but RBI measures cannot fully offset oil shocks, war risk and India’s external deficit.

Richard Fargose

World’s Biggest AI Rulebook Is Already Being Rewritten

Europe’s AI law shows why India may be right to build oversight capacity before rushing into a full statute.

Pranav Rai

CJP — Does It Carry Enough Sting in the Tail?

Can CJP move from recognition to trust, from Jantar Mantar to the ballot box, and from Instagram to organisation?

Amitabh Tiwari

What SpaceX's IPO Tells Us About the AI Bubble

Bubbles are hard to spot in real time, but a rush of big-ticket share sales has often been one warning sign investors ignore.

Vivek Kaul

Over-The-Top Justice on OTT Courtroom Drama

As courtroom dramas dominate OTT platforms, are viewers being shown the law—or merely a dramatized illusion of it? When entertainment simplifies complex legal realities, what impact does it have on society's understanding of justice, crime and accountability?

Ninupta Srinath

Tracking Periods Is Easier Than Treating Women's Pain

Menstrual health is often framed through hygiene and awareness, while pain, diagnosis and access to care receive far less attention.

Ketaki Thakur

When Investor Protection Prevents Investors From Selling

The market thinks lower circuits protect investors. Rajesh Exports shows they can also prevent investors from selling.

Krishnadevan V

RBI Has Bought Time, Reforms Must Do the Rest

India’s central bank has secured breathing room amid mounting external pressures. Whether that respite endures now depends on reforms beyond Mint Street.

Srinath Sridharan

Anand Venkatanarayanan

Google's Invisible Keywords Spell Visible Trouble, Court Limits Safe-Harbour Defence

In the Hindware suit, the Delhi High Court held Google liable for trademark infringement for selling and allowing use of Hindware’s trademark as a keyword even if it was invisible to users.

Shruti Mahajan

Geopolitics

Why India’s Pakistan Policy Needs a Serious Review

The case is not for a reset, but for sober management of a fraught relationship

Ashok K. Kantha

Learning to Live with Impossible Trinity

An effort to understand current monetary policy actions as the RBI navigates the impossible trinity of inflation, growth and external stability.

Arvind Chari

Monetary Policy's New Catch-22

With consumer inflation appearing repressed despite mounting price pressures, the RBI's decision to prioritise capital inflows over rate hikes carries growing risks.

Rupa Rege Nitsure

Opinion

Capital Measures Buy Time, Credibility Wins Capital

India's latest capital-flow measures can buy time and attract dollars, but history suggests that credibility, not financial engineering, determines if such bridges hold.

V Thiagarajan

SpaceX Is the New East India Company

Although SpaceX is not about to rule over foreign subjects, as the chartered companies founded in the early modern era did, it, too, is operating beyond the reach of any sovereign. And like its predecessors, it has already accumulated immense powers that governments will struggle to reclaim.

Alessio Terzi and Stefano Marcuzzi

Basis Life

Sarci-Sense: The Problem With Joined Hands

From politics to business and family life, photographs of unity often outlive the relationships they celebrate. Nothing ages faster than togetherness captured for the camera and mistaken for permanence.

Srinath Sridharan

₹370 Biryani and a Million Boys Who Don't Know What Enthusiastic Consent Sounds Like

₹370 biryani gets a man cancelled. And there are a million other boys who still don't know what enthusiastic consent sounds like.

Kirti Tarang Pande

Basis Life

The Last Lesson of Adulthood

We spend our lives learning how to hold on. The final lesson may be learning something totally different.

Kalyani Srinath

Court Unquote

Nirav Modi, SEBI-Anil Ambai-Reliance Infra, Dignity and Rights for Animals & More

Your weekly rundown of significant judicial rulings and legal battles influencing policy, companies, regulation, and governance

BasisPoint Insight