Inflation is broadening, and new cost shocks are taking hold. A half-point rise in December could spare the Fed a more painful tightening in 2027.

Yield Scribe

Federal Reserve

Foreign Investors Are Rotating Into India, Not Falling in Love With It

AI rotation and cheaper oil have brought foreign buyers back. Whether they stay will depend on earnings, rupee stability and the price they pay.

Krishnadevan V

Why are Festering Fiscal Follies so Faint in the Furore?

Fiscal follies fuel public fury, yet debt and deficits barely enter the debate as voters demand more spending and bond markets seek restraint.

Michael Debabrata Patra

Making AI Equitable Requires Markets and Governments to Share the Gains

AI's capital demands risk crowding out public spending, while automation shifts income from labour to capital. Equitable growth requires market discipline and fair taxation.

Sanjay Mansabdar

The Honey Trap Is the Headline. The Chip Pipeline, the Story

A Silicon Valley entrepreneur, a mysterious executive, an affair and allegations of spying make for a spicy tale. The real story is in a loophole

Nilanjan Banik

Negotiating Midterm Anxieties

Can the US midterm shift ease India’s strained ties with Washington, or will the Modi government’s fortunes depend more on the coming state elections, especially Uttar Pradesh?

Rajesh Ramachandran

America's 2032 Social Security Cliff Could Carry Wider Costs for India

The US retirement trust fund runs dry in 2032. How Washington closes the gap will reach India through IT exports, remittances and capital flows.

Sagari Gupta

Columnists

Vivek Kaul

Vivek Kaul is a writer and an economic commentator.

Michael Debabrata Patra

Michael Patra is an economist and former RBI Deputy Governor.

Duvvuri Subbarao

Dr Subbarao is a former governor of RBI

Arvind Mayaram

Arvind Mayaram, former Finance Secretary, is Chairman of the Institute of Development Studies, Jaipur.

Ashima Goyal

Dr Ashima Goyal is an Economist, Ex MPC Member.

Ajay Srivastava

Ajay Srivastava is the founder of the Global Trade Research Initiative.

Abheek Barua

Abheek Barua is the former Chief Economist of HDFC Bank. He teaches at Ashoka University.

Vijay Chauhan

Vijay Singh Chauhan, a former IRS official, is a Senior Visiting Fellow at ICPP, Ashoka University

R. Gurumurthy

Gurumurthy is an ex-central banker who handled markets, and later, financial stability for RBI.

Gaura Sen Gupta

Gaura is Chief Economist at IDFC First Bank.

Sharmila Kantha

Sharmila Kantha is an industrial policy specialist and author.

Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain (Retd)

Lt Gen Hasnain is Governor, Bihar, and Former Commander of Chinar Corps.

Dhananjay Sinha

Dhananjay, a D-School alum, is CEO and Co-Head of Equities at Systematix Group.

Sharmila Chavaly

Ex-civil servant Chavaly held key Railways, Finance roles; specialises in infra & PPPs

Srinath Sridharan

Srinath is an author, corporate advisor, and independent director on corporate boards.

Amitabh Tiwari

Amitabh Tiwari tracks politics with a strategic eye

Vivek Kaul

Vivek Kaul is a writer and an economic commentator.

Michael Debabrata Patra

Michael Patra is an economist and former RBI Deputy Governor.

Basis Shorts

November 13 See All

November Keeps Gilt Traders on Their Toes as Yield Swings Hit Four-Year High

India’s Russian Oil Tab Hits a Record in October

Vodafone Idea Flags the Most Suspected Spam Lines

Banking Inflows Cool in Sep, but Remain Key to BoP Surplus

Forex Reserves Rebound by $2.49 Billion, Still $66 Billion Below Peak

November 12 See All

Gilts Take CPI in Stride, But Are Not Out of the Woods Yet

Tamil Nadu Stays on Top of Inflation Chart

The Curry Trio Is Giving Inflation a Kick

CPI Crossing 6% Raises Odds of Another RBI Rate Hike

Coca-Cola, Carlsberg IPOs Offer the Same IPO Flavour

The Bureau

India's Merchandise Trade Deficit Hits One-Year High in October

India's Forex Reserves Rise $2.49 Billion to $719.55 Billion

Gradual RBI Tightening Likely Despite October CPI Breaching 6% Ceiling

SBI Research cuts December rate hike call to 25 bps from 50 bps; sees 50% chance of lower terminal rate

India October CPI Inflation Crosses 6% as Food Prices Accelerate

Cabinet Raises Rabi Fertiliser Subsidy Outlay by 64% to 623.7 Billion Rupees

BofA Raises India July-September GDP Growth Estimate to 7.7% From 7.2%

India's Energy Transition: The Hard Part is Yet to Come

Three Lines of Defence in Cooperative Banks: Orchestra Sans Instruments

Cooperative banks test the model where it is weakest: thin control functions, elected boards and depositors who cannot read the warning signs until a crisis.

Rabi N. Mishra

Komal Gupta

India’s Gold Hub Ambition Needs More Than Its Vast Gold Holdings Alone

India's vast gold reserves and import appetite have not translated into pricing power. Policy reform, market infrastructure and trust are essential to changing that

G. Chandrashekhar

Rural Energy Must Deliver More Than Connections

Rural energy policy must focus on productive uses, reliable supply and local institutions to turn electricity access into economic opportunity

Sarada Prasanna Das

Geopolitics

When to Fight, When to Talk, And When to Stop

From Haji Pir to Sri Lanka, India’s military experience shows what political leaders need from military advice when they choose to escalate, adapt, negotiate or stop.

Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain (Retd)

Masterclass with Michael Patra

Why the RBI Cannot Leave the Rupee to Market Forces

Why does the RBI intervene at all? Despite being the world’s fifth-largest reserve holder, its gross foreign liabilities exceed its reserves quite substantially, by over 10% of GDP. And then there is this growth angle too

Michael Debabrata Patra

India’s Poverty Success Story Needs a Second Look

Falling poverty estimates sit uneasily with weak real incomes and welfare dependence, raising questions about the durability of India’s gains.

Dhananjay Sinha

Gold’s Shine Fades, but its Foundations Hold

Gold has lost more than a quarter from its peak, but ETF and central bank buying supports recovery in 2027. The Fed and oil will shape its timing.

Yield Scribe

AI, Oil and Why Dalal Street Has Little Reason to Relax

An AI crash could send money fleeing US stocks. Investors betting it will land on Dalal Street may be in for an expensive surprise.

Vivek Kaul

Stress Testing Banks Before the Next Crisis

Are the country’s risk measurement systems and emergency funding arrangements ready for the next financial crisis?

Rahul Ghosh

Why the US Treasury’s Quarterly Refunding is Becoming a Market Event

Why the US Treasury’s Quarterly Refunding is becoming a market event.

V Thiagarajan

The Satellite Internet Conundrum for India

The real debate is who needs it, who owns it, who controls it? The Musk-Ambani standoff is a distracting and misleading binary.

Minari Shah

Delhi’s Air Pollution: The Real Reform Lies Beyond Emergency Measures

Can Delhi escape its annual pollution crisis by transforming waste management, construction and road cleaning into engines of lasting reform, rather than relying on emergency curbs?

Arvind Mayaram

Beyond the Blue Wave: India's Long Game with America

Democrats’ win has changed the political theatre in Washington. It has not changed the forces beneath it. India's response should be realistic, not sentimental; patient and anchored to its own national interest.

Ashok K. Kantha

A Seat at the RBI’s Table Must Not Become a Market Advantage

The RBI’s new markets committee needs clear rules on conflicts and confidentiality to prevent privileged access from becoming a commercial advantage.

R. Gurumurthy

When the Founder Becomes a National Security Question

The Nvidia episode tests whether Corporate Boards can question powerful founders, when private conduct intersects with tests of morality including national security. Nvidia is at the centre of a technological transformation intended to extend human capability. Yet its present challenge requires judgement that no machine can supply

Srinath Sridharan

Your Cloud Is Within the Taxman’s Reach

Tax searches can now reach beyond office premises into cloud accounts, email and banking portals, raising urgent questions about privacy, legal privilege and how businesses should prepare.

Manuj Sabharwal

Geopolitics

The Iran War Is Far From Over

The unresolved battle for Hormuz threatens prolonged conflict, global economic disruption and mounting costs for India.

Srinath Sridharan

Anand Venkatanarayanan

Record SIPs Won't Guarantee Record Profits for AMCs

October’s withdrawals absorbed half of equity fund collections, while fees and expansion costs could pressure the earnings picture.

Krishnadevan V

Week in Numbers: Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

High-frequency indicators painted a mixed picture, with year-on-year growth moderating on a high base even as underlying economic activity remained resilient.

Datametricx

When the Festive Glow Meets the Economy's Hard Realities

Diwali's brilliance masks India's economic contradictions: soaring debt, elusive FDI, and the RBI's dance with inflation.

Phynix

BSP: Spoiler or Kingmaker in UP

With just 9% of the vote and no Lok Sabha seats, Mayawati’s BSP may seem politically diminished. But could its leftover votes still determine who wins Uttar Pradesh in 2027?

Amitabh Tiwari

Your IPO Money May Never Reach the Company

An IPO can raise billions without the company receiving a rupee. Investors need clearer labels showing exactly who gets their subscription money

Ganga Narayan Rath

Chirayu Sharma

A Business Deserves Patience but Does Its Valuation

When earnings forecasts fall but valuation multiples hold, investors must ask what supports the premium and how new forecasts shape target prices.

Krishnadevan V

America's Verdict and West Asia's Uncertain Reset

Trump’s electoral setback may strengthen the case for restraint, but does it rule out another US attack on Iran? Explore the political calculations, regional risks and implications for India.

Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain (Retd)

The Risk in India’s Credit Boom Lies in What It Funds

Loan growth outpacing nominal GDP growth is not a problem in itself. The concern lies in the composition of the loan growth.

Deepa Vasudevan

When the Leader Can't Be the Loser

A defeat can change the power map without changing the leader’s story. But, is protecting the leader’s image more important than understanding what voters were trying to say?

Kirti Tarang Pande

Three Lines of Defence: Does the Model Still Defend or Even Hold?

From Satyam to YES Bank, the controls existed on paper. What failed was the flow of truth between the business, risk, audit and the board.

Rabi N. Mishra

Komal Gupta

Trump’s Defeat Leaves Markets Exposed to Another Oil Shock

A weakened president may yet seek a military victory before Congress changes hands, exposing investors to dearer oil and a fresh inflation shock.

Yield Scribe

The Trouble With India’s Growing Household Debt

Can rising household debt sustain India’s consumption growth when incomes are struggling to keep pace, or are borrowers approaching the limits of what they can afford?

Vivek Kaul

A Far More Restrained Rupee Facing a Volatile Global Outlook

US midterm elections gave global markets the fillip they needed, with crude prices easing and inflation outlook turning more benign. Even as the rupee rose, its challenges are unlikely to ease as fundamentals remain unchanged

Gaura Sen Gupta

Why Are Indian Protesters Targeting the Electoral Commission?

Millions have been excluded from electoral rolls with the special intensive revision, and as the Election Commission of India refuses accountability, its credibility is at stake.

Shashi Tharoor

Opinion

A Public Asset Cannot Be Run Like a Private Landlord

The (Navi) Mumbai airport dispute raises a larger question about the limits of private power over essential infrastructure and the state’s responsibility to protect public interest.

Srinath Sridharan

The Great Bond Market Reversal: Is the Yield Rally Sustainable or a Temporary Relief?

Political developments and hope of de-escalation in the Iran conflict triggered the reversal, but crude oil prices, a stable rupee and moderating and domestic inflation will determine its sustainability

Venkatakrishnan Srinivasan

Waiting Out Oil Could Cost the RBI More

As oil costs spread into wider price revisions, monetary policy may become more effective. Waiting could raise the eventual cost of action

B Sharathbabu

Monetary Policy: Communicating the Future

As central banks rethink forward guidance, clarity about how policy will respond may matter more than promises about where rates are headed.

Michael Debabrata Patra

The Tech Brotherhood Wants Sovereignty

After centuries of nation-states, a new form of sovereignty is asserting itself. The small fraternity that controls the major digital platforms has already proven capable of even more intrusive and insidious forms of control than most states can muster.

Katharina Pistor

A Debtors’ Club for a Fragmented World

The newly created Borrowers’ Platform aims to facilitate knowledge-sharing and capacity-building among debtor countries, while amplifying their voices in global financial circles.

Ishac Diwan

Banking Reform: Can Another Committee See Beyond Regulatory Silos?

India's banking reform challenge goes beyond creating bigger banks. The new committee must confront regulatory silos, institutional autonomy and systemic risks

R. Gurumurthy

Dollar Debt Loses Its Edge as Borrowers Head Home

Higher dollar rates and hedging costs are driving borrowers home, leaving Indian banks and bond investors to shoulder more of the funding burden.

Yield Scribe

What India Should Do Now That US Congress Has Changed Hands

While trade and immigration are India’s most pressing concerns, engaging with various committees, subcommittees, and caucuses will help the country build meaningful relations with the US

Anand Rajagopal

Anjana Leena Sathy

IDBI Bank Sale: Why Price and Value Matter More Than the Market

The IDBI Bank sale has drawn questions over its price and process. A fair assessment must distinguish market price from long-term value and consider the incentives behind the deal.

Sanjay Mansabdar

Tomorrow’s Prices, Today’s Spending: The Role of Expectations

Hall and Woodford’s work shows why inflation expectations matter. For India, monetary policy must address not only interest rates, but also household behaviour and supply-side pressures.

K. S Sujit

India Retains Just One Dollar in Four of the FDI It Attracts

India attracted $54.9 billion in FDI in five months but retained only $13.8 billion. The gap matters as portfolio money exits and oil pressures the current account

Sagari Gupta

Is AI in Inflation? Should Central Banks Care?

Global economies are quantifying AI’s effect on inflation, and whether the current inflationary phase will give way to productivity gains.

Michael Debabrata Patra

The Test Ahead for Warsh’s Quieter Fed

Less forward guidance may give the Fed greater flexibility, while shifting markets’ search for policy signals to other voices.

V Thiagarajan

RBI’s Forex Curbs Ease Hedging Pressure on Rupee

Curbs on forward contracts have reduced hedging demand for dollars, but a lasting turn in rupee sentiment will require stronger inflows.

Sameer Narang

How SP+ Beat BJP+ in UP in 2024, and What It Means for 2027

SP+’s 2024 Lok Sabha gains came from a broader social coalition and a sharp shift in Dalit votes. Can it hold that coalition together in the 2027 Uttar Pradesh election?

Amitabh Tiwari

Basis Life

The Importance of Being A R Rahman

He changed the sound of Indian film music. But perhaps his greater achievement was changing how a song could tell its story.

Minari Shah

Why India Needs a Rate Defence of Its External Sector

Higher rates can support rupee returns, moderate import demand, and conserve reserves as oil costs and capital outflows strain external finances

Anil Katia

Briefing

India’s Banking Reforms Must Look Beyond Bigger Banks

The new banking reforms committee must align scale, competition and risk management with India’s aspirations for a developed economy.

K. Srinivasa Rao

A Divided Washington May Offer Markets Little Relief

Democrats’ gains could restrain Trump in Congress, while fiscal battles and renewed conflict with Iran threaten another shock to risk assets

Yield Scribe

Midterm Losses May Push Trump to Seek a Quick India Trade Deal

With foreign policy leverage failing against Russia, China, and Iran, Trump needs a quick win.

Ajay Srivastava

The Fairness Question Behind India’s Dollar-Based Tax Proposal

India's equity tax review must weigh dollar-based gains for foreign investors against revenue costs, added complexity and simpler policy options

Krishnadevan V

Opinion

IRDAI Must Approach Commission Cuts With Nuance

Uniform commission caps could lower distribution costs, but risk weakening the agents and channels needed to reach India's uninsured households.

Manoj Arora

The AI Haves and Have-nots, and the Question of Governability

It is already becoming evident that AI could create a new class divide: between countries, within countries and within the workforce. Worryingly, governments seem ill-prepared to deal with its consequences

R. Sridharan

Nepal’s Disasters Expose a Missing Link in Infrastructure Finance

Nepal’s reconstruction challenge raises a bigger question: can infrastructure finance prevent the next loss, rather than simply paying to rebuild after disaster strikes?

Arvind Mayaram

India’s Exports Show Resilience in April-September, but Concerns Remain

Sectors that have not recovered from geopolitical shocks need to be revived, and policies to support them put in place. Also, India needs to look beyond traditional trade partners and tap new markets

Sharmila Kantha

Learning To Live Sustainably: A Lesson From A Jaipur School

A Jaipur school’s engagement with the UN Sustainable Development Goals offers a lesson in sustainability, showing how education, local action and institutional responsibility can shape a more sustainable future.

Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain (Retd)

Rising Reserves Need a Closer Reading

India’s headline reserves rose as estimated net usable reserves fell, making forward commitments central to assessing the intervention cushion.

V Thiagarajan

Can Indian IT Find its Next Growth Engine Before AI Changes the Rules?

Indian IT stocks have rallied, but AI threatens the old growth model. Firms must turn expertise into revenue before automation erodes the future.

Indra Chourasia

The Long Road to a Woman's Workplace

Free bus rides may save women money, but can they unlock better jobs? The hidden costs of commuting, caregiving and unequal mobility reveal a bigger barrier.

Nishat Anjum

Telangana’s Rising Tax Revenues Must Pay a Dividend to Its Cities

Stronger tax collections give the state room to fix Hyderabad’s infrastructure. Whether it uses that fiscal space well is another matter

Alok Kumar Mishra

Opinion

The Business Question Behind Gandhi’s Appeal to India Inc.

Gandhi’s appeal raises wider questions about corporate autonomy, competition and the institutions that sustain private enterprise.

Rajesh Mahapatra

Opinion

Why Corporate India Chooses Silence Over Political Confrontation

Corporate India’s silence is neither surrender nor complicity. Political discretion protects shareholder interests, while dissent finds quieter institutional channels.

Rakesh Khar

Market Vigilantes and Central Bank Mandates

Currency pressure strengthens the case for separating government debt management from the RBI’s monetary policy and regulatory roles.

Sanjay Mansabdar

Week in Numbers: Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

Industrial growth moderated to a four-month low in September but remained high by historical standards.

Datametricx

The Quiet Signals That Matter in a World That Never Stops Talking

In a world that never stops talking, the real signals are easy to miss. From climate and currency pressures to AI and state power, resilience is the quiet strength we need.

Phynix

India’s Next Reform Must Limit the State’s Discretion

Macroeconomic resilience creates room for reform. Confidence requires clear rules, independent choices and equal protection.

Basis View

RBI’s FX Strategy: Mounting Costs of Rupee Defence Amid a False Calm

The RBI has calmed the spot rupee, but surging forward premia, thinner liquidity and a growing forward book show the rising cost of engineering currency stability.

Madhavi Arora

What the MLC Polls Tell Us, and What They Mean for 2027

A verdict of the state polls they are not, but parties need to read the writing on the wall as they head to state elections next year

Amitabh Tiwari

Basis Life

Sarci-Sense: Previous Gen Cringed & Saved, NextGen Chats & Spends; We Pay

Previous generations saved because they had little; the NextGen spends because it wants more and for identity. Between them, have we failed to teach NextGen “enough” and self-sufficiency?

Srinath Sridharan

Basis Life

Are Chocolate Rocks the New-Age Soanpapdi?

How did a simple Diwali tradition become an elaborate ritual of taste, presentation and expectation—and what happens when the gift takes on a life of its own?

Kalyani Srinath

Tough Battle Ahead for BJP in Uttar Pradesh

The BJP’s performance in UP’s legislative council polls raises questions about middle-class support and the political significance of the Opposition’s gains.

Rajesh Ramachandran

Can Bond Vigilantes Prevent the Next Debt Crisis?

With interest rates on government debt having gone from near zero to much higher levels in recent years, rising short- and long-term bond yields have cast doubt on the sustainability of some debts and led many to wonder if a crisis might be looming. While some countries are more protected than others, none is immune.

Nouriel Roubini

FPIs Using Mauritius Face a Harder Tax Calculation in India

Funds investing through Mauritius face closer scrutiny of their treaty claims, making predictable tax treatment more important to their next Indian allocation.

Sangeeta Jain

Krishnadevan V

Is Washington Trying to Inflate Away Its Debt?

Tariffs, fiscal expansion, low real rates and pressure on the Fed raise a provocative question: is inflation becoming part of Washington’s answer to its debt burden?

Sanjay Mansabdar

The Risk of One Shock Too Many

Successive shocks have eroded household, corporate and fiscal buffers, raising the risk that the next disruption could trigger far greater economic and financial stress.

Rahul Ghosh

The Rupee in the Age of Digital Dollarisation

India must address the domestic weaknesses undermining its currency while building guardrails against a new source of dollar dependence: digital money.

Arvind Mayaram

Masterclass with Michael Patra

The Forces That Set Exchange Rates and the Regimes of the Rupee

Michael Patra explains the underlying principles of exchange rates, how they shape the economy, and how the rupee has undergone regime shifts.

Michael Debabrata Patra

The Anchor of Memory: Why October 27 Must Remain the Bedrock of India’s National Security Consciousness

Peace Must Not Erase Memory: It is a reminder of the sacrifice, resistance and choices that shaped India’s security in J&K.

Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain (Retd)