Geopolitics

India and the Changing Geometry of Great-Power Relations

India’s strategic autonomy is being tested as the US, China and Russia pursue overlapping interests, forcing New Delhi to balance partnerships without losing room to manoeuvre.

Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain (Retd)

GIFT City’s Regulatory Paradox

Can GIFT City become truly global without rethinking how it regulates? Its next leap may depend less on new permissions and more on removing unnecessary regulatory friction.

R. Gurumurthy

Surviving the Global Energy Squeeze: Why India Must Keep Its Guard Up

India has managed to avoid a fuel shock so far with calibrated actions. A pivot to cleaner energy going forward not only makes sense, but also reduces vulnerabilities.

Rakesh Khar

Can India shape the next commodity super-cycle?

Commodity super-cycles last decades and the previous one was driven by China. Is the world ready for another round, and can India lead structural long-term shifts in global demand?

G. Chandrashekhar

The Fight For The Dalit Vote in Uttar Pradesh

Six months to polls, and political parties are wooing the electorate, one community at a time

Amitabh Tiwari

India’s Copper Capacity Has Been Built on an Imported Foundation

India is adding copper smelting capacity, but heavy dependence on imported raw material is exposing a huge gap between building furnaces and securing the copper concentrate needed to keep them running.

Atul Prakash

The Chairman and the Boulder

Noel Tata’s inherited burdens evoke Sisyphus, but corporate leadership demands a result, not endless effort, as Tata Sons’ listing test turns into an open boardroom fight.

The Independent Director

Columnists

Vivek Kaul

Vivek Kaul is a writer and an economic commentator.

Michael Debabrata Patra

Michael Patra is an economist and former RBI Deputy Governor.

Duvvuri Subbarao

Dr Subbarao is a former governor of RBI

Arvind Mayaram

Arvind Mayaram, former Finance Secretary, is Chairman of the Institute of Development Studies, Jaipur.

Ashima Goyal

Dr Ashima Goyal is an Economist, Ex MPC Member.

Ajay Srivastava

Ajay Srivastava is the founder of the Global Trade Research Initiative.

Abheek Barua

Abheek is an Independent Economist and the Former Chief Economist at HDFC Bank.

Vijay Chauhan

Vijay Singh Chauhan, a former IRS official, is a Senior Visiting Fellow at ICPP, Ashoka University

R. Gurumurthy

Gurumurthy is an ex-central banker who handled markets, and later, financial stability for RBI.

Gaura Sen Gupta

Gaura is Chief Economist at IDFC First Bank.

Sharmila Kantha

Sharmila Kantha is an industrial policy specialist and author.

Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain (Retd)

Lt Gen Hasnain is Governor, Bihar, and Former Commander of Chinar Corps.

Dhananjay Sinha

Dhananjay, a D-School alum, is CEO and Co-Head of Equities at Systematix Group.

Sharmila Chavaly

Ex-civil servant Chavaly held key Railways, Finance roles; specialises in infra & PPPs

Srinath Sridharan

Srinath is an author, corporate advisor, and independent director on corporate boards.

Amitabh Tiwari

Amitabh Tiwari tracks politics with a strategic eye

Vivek Kaul

Vivek Kaul is a writer and an economic commentator.

Michael Debabrata Patra

Michael Patra is an economist and former RBI Deputy Governor.

The Bureau

Indian Equities Fall as IT Stocks Weigh; Rupee Gains, Bond Yields Ease

Tata Mistrust: Bombay House Boardroom Battle Heats Up

CREA’s Claim of Indian Fuel Exports to Russia via Egypt Needs Scrutiny

US FOMC Raises Fed Rates by 25 bps, Warsh Flags Persistent Inflation Risks

India’s Gilt Market Faces Pressure on Every Front, Curve Seen Bear-Flattening

India’s Finance Ministry Rejects External-Pressure Claim on UPI MDR

August CPI Turns October RBI Meeting Into a Live Rate-Hike Call

India Govt Allows 0.4% MDR on UPI Merchant Payments Above ₹2,000

India’s GDP Data Puzzle: Pronab Sen on Deflators, Revisions and Trust

In Search of the Lesser Florican

Maneet Pal Singh

After the Swap Window: Managing What the Rupee Rescue Has Left Behind

Record reserves have not lifted the rupee, and the RBI's FCNR(B) window has left a liquidity surplus and a repayment schedule to be managed. Emergency windows should run on rules fixed before they open.

Arvind Mayaram

BasisPoint Groupthink

GDP - Gross Denominator Politics

A numerator from one GDP series met a denominator from another. Television called it an exposé; social media turned it into 2.6% growth.

BasisPoint Insight

The GDP Debate India Should Welcome and Sustain

The argument over India’s growth numbers is healthy because it has shifted attention from identity politics to jobs, investment and policy.

BasisPoint Groupthink

Much Sho-Sha About Fufa

In the national family quarrel, the host wants applause, the critics want humble pie, and the taxpayer would rather somebody produce the accounts.

BasisPoint Insight

Why Are Bond Yields Unyielding?

Rising bond yields flag doubts about fiscal discipline, inflation risks and competition for capital. India is not immune to the global repricing.

Michael Debabrata Patra

RBI’s Room to Stay on Hold Narrows as Domestic, Global Risks Converge

Inflation is broadening, growth is holding up and global rates are moving higher. The RBI can still wait, but the cost of waiting is becoming harder to ignore.

Nishat Anjum

Gold Loans – The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

Gold loans are booming, but rising borrowing and falling real incomes suggest the surge may also reflect financial stress among Indian households

Vivek Kaul

Week in Numbers: Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

Inflation continued to rise even as growth in automobile sales showed signs of moderating after months of robust growth following GST rate cuts.

Datametricx

RBI’s IPO Push Forces a Boardroom Test for Tata’s Trust Model

The RBI’s decision on Tata Sons’ listing tests how India’s storied conglomerate balances trusteeship, board power, minority rights and regulation.

Krishnadevan V

Court Unquote

The Tata Group saga, RERA, Ranbaxy, UPI Merchant Discount Rate and More

Your weekly rundown of significant judicial rulings and legal battles influencing policy, companies, regulation, and governance

BasisPoint Insight

Are Interest Rates in India Too Low?

Indian bond yields may be running below levels implied by growth and inflation, fuelling leverage, asset-price excesses, capital outflows and pressure on the rupee.

Sanjay Mansabdar

When Regulators Might Be Right but the Timing Might Still be Wrong

Regulatory certainty is not only about what the rule says but also about when the rule is applied and timing of policy changes

R. Gurumurthy

When Fighting Cyber Fraud Freezes the Money of Innocent Indians

India tracks cyber-fraud losses and frozen accounts, but not the legitimate money immobilised by enforcement. That missing metric matters for households, MSMEs and growth.

Sagari Gupta

ASUSE Data: Tiny Units Are Being Left Out of Credit Coverage

Despite wider bank access and MUDRA lending, India’s smallest enterprises remain starved of adequate credit, limiting productivity, scale and their ability to create jobs.

Sharmila Kantha

RBI Wants a Listing, Noel Wants the Tata Ethos — Both Are Possible

Rather than get into an ugly and long-drawn-out fight, Tata Trusts and Tata Sons should look to international examples to comply with regulatory requirements while keeping the group’s ethos anchored.

R. Sridharan

The Retailer We Don’t See

The dark store is now part of our lives but out of our sight. India’s ten-minute delivery story has now become a food-safety story at scale. Can we solve it?

Minari Shah

India's Fast Breeder Moment: A Threshold, Not a Destination

India’s PFBR has reached criticality, but delays in the fuel cycle revive Anil Kakodkar’s case for using thorium in PHWRs rather than waiting for Stage 3.

Sharmila Chavaly

Geopolitics

India-China Détente and Blumenthal’s Sanctions

India’s pushback against US sanctions over Russian oil comes as New Delhi and Beijing seek to turn a fragile thaw into a broader reset in ties. The development points to a more assertive Indian foreign policy.

Rajesh Ramachandran

Replacing Powell with Warsh Didn't Work, At Least Not Yet

R. Gurumurthy

NSE IPO Tests the Price of Market Dominance

Indra Chourasia

How Much of RBI’s Rate Cuts Actually Reached Borrowers and Savers?

Abhishek Dey

The Conference Boom Needs a Measure Beyond Footfall

Srinath Sridharan

UPI MDR: Who Benefits, and What Govt FAQ Doesn’t Answer

UPI’s MDR creates new revenue streams for banks and apps, but questions remain over governance, merchant bargaining power and fraud-victim protection

Anil Katia

Ganga Narayan Rath

India’s Trade Shift: From Protection to Global Competitiveness by 2047

India’s trade challenge is shifting from protection to competitiveness, with services, manufacturing, trade facilitation and global value chains central to its next phase

Rajeev Verma

Opinion

RBI Must Begin Rate Hike Cycle as Inflation Accelerates

India’s inflation is climbing as wholesale pressures, costly crude and surplus liquidity strengthen the case for RBI to rethink its 5.25% repo rate.

Dhananjay Sinha

Tata Sons Has a Cargill Option but RBI Has Changed the Rules

RBI has closed the deregistration route. Can the Cargill-Mosaic model help Shapoorji Pallonji unlock liquidity before or alongside a Tata Sons listing?

Chandrika Soyantar

Warsh Starts With a Hike, but Keeps the Fed’s Next Move Open

The Fed’s first rate increase since 2023 confirms Kevin Warsh’s hawkish start, but his retreat from forward guidance leaves markets to price the next move from data.

Dhananjay Sinha

RBI's Approach to Restructuring Revolving Credit and What It Means for NBFC Balance Sheets

RBI’s proposed ban on revolving credit may curb ever-greening, but without a tenor floor or transition period, it could create new ALM and MSME risks.

Babuji K

India’s Food grain Procurement Policy Deserves Review

On the one hand, farmers hesitate to grow oilseeds, millets and pulses as they are not assured of procurement. On the other, India imports huge amounts of pulses and vegetable oils. To break this cycle, the government needs to look beyond rice and wheat for procurement.

G. Chandrashekhar

How GST Data Is Helping Solve India’s MSME Credit Problem

GST is doing more than simplifying taxation: its digital trail is helping lenders assess MSMEs, widen formal credit and rethink traditional balance-sheet lending.

Rudra Sensarma

Fraudsters Do Not Need Better AI Than Us

The real fraud advantage lies in incentive, speed and adaptation. India’s digital defences must learn to see the whole fraud stack before criminals learn to defeat it.

Srinath Sridharan

Anand Venkatanarayanan

Week in Numbers: Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

Growth in automobiles and tractors slowed sharply but remained positive in August. The big question is whether growth will remain positive amid an unfavourable base effect following the GST rate cuts.

Datametricx

Video

VW-JSW’s India Wager: Cakewalk or Tough Road Ahead?

Rakesh Khar

Geopolitics

Why India Still Needs BRICS?

India’s place in BRICS is about strategic autonomy: shaping the group from within, balancing China and preserving room to work with the US, Russia and Global South.

Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain (Retd)

Micron: When Scarcity Creates Rent, and Everyone Wants a Share

Micron’s AI-driven scarcity has created extraordinary profits. But as workers, rivals and governments seek a share, the real question is how long those rents can last.

R. Gurumurthy

Why ALM, Not Just NIM, Matters for the Future of Bank Profitability

NIM is the only visible outcome of a bank’s ALM strategy. As lending rates evolve, transparent pricing and risk management will shape sustainable margins.

K. Srinivasa Rao

AI Will Kill Humanity Only if We Allow It To

Human extinction isn’t inevitable. AI isn’t a comet that can wipe out Earth in an instant. Human agency can prevail if we choose to exercise it.

R. Sridharan

Relinquishing the Wheel: Why Volkswagen’s JSW Gamble Faces a Brutal Reality Check

Volkswagen’s JSW deal offers scale, local heft and an EV route into India. But history shows that ownership changes alone rarely crack the country’s brutal auto market.

Rakesh Khar

Mumbai’s Monsoon Test Must Measure Recovery, Not Just Flood Control

Mumbai measures rainfall and infrastructure performance, but a fuller test of resilience must capture lost livelihoods, disrupted commutes and the pace of economic recovery.

Sujit Kumar*

India's Next Growth Story May Have Already Begun

India’s rising bank credit and improving productivity may be laying the foundations for a longer growth cycle, echoing the early take-off phases of East Asia.

Rahul Ghosh

The Himalayas Need an Accord Beyond Geopolitics, and the Alpine Convention Can Show the Way

A dedicated Himalayan Convention, even if not legally binding like the Alpine Convention, needs to be decoupled from geopolitical rivalries because avalanches and floods do not respect boundary lines.

Prakash Nanda

When the Sidelines Mattered More Than the Summit

BRICS showed the limits of collective action, but dialogue and bilateral meetings offered scope for progress despite members’ distinct interests.

Rajesh Mahapatra

HUL Has the Map of India but Rivals Are Finding the Consumers

A gas cylinder, a water tap and a smartphone are central to Hindustan Unilever’s next growth pitch. Yet the same shifts reshaping Indian consumption are making the market harder for an old giant to own.

Krishnadevan V

Oil, Yields and Uncertainty: A Triple Whammy for Monetary Policy

Rising oil prices, higher global yields and persistent uncertainty are narrowing the RBI’s room to hold rates, despite excess domestic liquidity.

Deepa Vasudevan

BasisPoint Groupthink

Nine-Tailed Diplomacy: Can India and China Learn to Coexist at Last?

India and China are bound by trade, divided by suspicion and shaped by history. As Modi and Xi test a fragile reset, can coexistence beat confrontation?

Phynix

The GDP Debate

India Rising

India’s GDP Numbers Reveal a Growth Upshift, Not a Statistical Mirage

Investment is accelerating, and demand is resilient. Revised data challenge claims that the RBI sacrificed economic growth in its inflation fight.

Michael Debabrata Patra

The Invisible Asset: What India's GDP Row Is Really About

India’s GDP row exposes a deeper trust deficit. Restoring credibility requires transparent methods, consistent surveys and accountable revisions.

Arvind Mayaram

Roti, Kapada, Makaan And The Credit Card

For later millennials and Generation Z, concepts of saving and debt have evolved differently from the past. Instant gratification, technology-enabled access to debt, and immediate availability of goods and services are now the driving factors instead of saving and even asset building.

Abhiman Das

Smita Roy Trivedi

714 Days and Counting – The Stock Market Isn’t Cooperating With the Bachcha Party

The Sensex has stayed below its September 2024 peak for 714 days, offering investors a lesson in market cycles, valuations, risk and patience.

Vivek Kaul

India’s Carmakers Are Preparing for a Messy Fuel Future

India’s car market is splitting across CNG, hybrids, EVs and petrol. The winners may be carmakers that can offer several answers without turning their balance sheets into a costly mess.

Krishnadevan V

Success of BRICS Summit Hinges on India-China Reset

Trade imbalances, market access and economic cooperation will test whether a Modi-Xi thaw can turn BRICS ambition into actionable outcomes.

Rajesh Mahapatra

What a Modi-Xi Meeting Should Focus on Now

A Modi-Xi meeting can reset economic ties if both sides prioritise predictable investment, market access and practical technology cooperation.

Deep Pal

Basis Life

The Serious Business of Being Funny

R. Gurumurthy

The Customer Is King, Just Don't Ask Him for Anything.

Kalyani Srinath

Sarci Sense: Why Do We Photograph Food Before Eating It?

Srinath Sridharan

Why Intelligent People Keep Moving Toward Outcomes They Know Are Dangerous

Kirti Tarang Pande

Essay

Tradition of Mutual Learning Between India & China, and Why It Still Matters

India and China’s long history of exchange offers a template for rebuilding trust today through deeper knowledge, predictable ties and practical economic cooperation.

Rakesh Kumar

Xie Zhibin

India's China Problem: A Trade Relationship Too Big to Ignore, Too Lopsided to Accept

As trade volumes continue to set new records, this is a relation best understood as economically necessary in the near term, strategically uncomfortable in the long term, and only slowly being rebalanced through a combination of diplomacy, domestic investment, and diversification.

Nilanjan Banik

Geopolitics

Twenty-Five Years After 9/11: Is the Age of Global Terrorism Over?

Terrorism has lost territory but not its ecosystems, as weak states, new technologies and dispersed networks keep the threat alive.

Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain (Retd)

India’s Industrial Future Cannot Be Rented

India is scaling factories, but dependence on value-chain can leave ambition exposed to geopolitical leverage. True industrial power requires owning the capabilities beneath manufacturing scale.

Srinath Sridharan

Trump Wants Lower Rates, but US Borrowing and Inflation Stand in the Way

Trump wants rate cuts; the Treasury wants lower yields. Heavy borrowing and persistent inflation are pulling US policy in the opposite direction.

Sanjay Mansabdar

BRICS Supplies 42% of India’s Imports, but Buys Only 22% of Its Exports

BRICS is becoming an increasingly important source of machinery, industrial inputs, energy and commodities, but it is not absorbing a comparable share of Indian exports.

Ajay Srivastava

Does Alignment of Elected Representatives with State Governments Affect Security?

Political alignment affects not only fiscal transfers and economic outcomes, but also security. In an existing civil conflict, electing an aligned representative can reduce, rather than intensify, violence.

Amitrajeet A. Batabyal*

SEBI Needs a Stronger Framework for Measuring Regulatory Performance

SEBI’s next test is not more regulation, but better accountability. India needs clear performance metrics, independent review and outcome-led supervision.

Indra Chourasia

When Banking Rules Aren’t Enough, India Needs Risk Enforcement

India’s banking supervision has focused heavily on procedural compliance. The next step should be stronger enforcement of risk governance, capital and controls.

Rahul Ghosh

Interview

India’s New GDP Series Is a Black Box Without the Underlying Data

Former chief statistician Pronab Sen says double deflation is sound in principle, but transparency over price data and base-year revisions is essential to restore trust.

Rajesh Mahapatra

Beyond GDP Perception: How Administrative Data Is Reshaping Trade Facilitation Policy

Administrative data is giving policymakers a clearer view of what works in trade facilitation, where delays persist and what needs to change.

Vijay Chauhan

India’s Deep-Sea Fishing Ambitions Face Global Challenges

India is looking to expand deep-sea fishing to tap its vast marine resources. However, subsidy rules, sustainability concerns and export concentration pose challenges to that ambition.

Badri Narayanan Gopalakrishnan

Himanshu Jaiswal

Varun Beverages Is Betting Alcohol Can Do What Pepsi Cannot

The company is entering alcohol after out-earning listed liquor rivals. The move is less about margins than escaping PepsiCo’s bottling ceiling.

Krishnadevan V

Indonesia Biodiesel Policy Unlikely to Hurt India

Indonesia is going full speed ahead with its B60 blending programme. While that might hit Indian imports of palm oil in the short term, the changing import basket and newer suppliers ensure imports will not suffer in the long term.

G. Chandrashekhar

Geopolitics

What Makes a Nation Difficult to Coerce?

From Kargil to hybrid warfare, national resilience is the ability to absorb shocks, recover quickly and retain the freedom to act when deterrence fails.

Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain (Retd)

India Has The Dollars, The Real Test is Whether it Can Earn Enough

India’s reserves offer a strong buffer, but lasting external strength will depend on its ability to earn foreign exchange, not merely

K. S Sujit

Nandini M

The Fight for UP's Jatland: The RLD Factor and SP's Bid for a Dalit-Muslim Bloc

From SP chief Akhilesh Yadav's "chavanni to rupaiyya" remark to RLD chief Jayant Chaudhary's "G for ganna, J for Jat" retort, former allies are battling for political space in UP's western Jatland ahead of the 2027 Assembly election.

Amitabh Tiwari