Rebasing Reality: Will 2022–23 GDP Expose the K-Curve?

India’s new GDP base year may correct long-standing distortions. But if survey data are fully integrated, growth could be marked lower, validating what markets already sense.

Dhananjay Sinha

iStock.com

New GDP Series May Recast Growth, Deficit Math

The new GDP series could alter fiscal deficit calculations and shape expectations from monetary policy.

BasisPoint Groupthink

Tata Group’s Steady Hand Looks Less Settled

A delayed decision on N Chandrasekaran’s third term shows how Tata’s owners are redrawing the limits of professional power at Bombay House.

Krishnadevan V

Glitch at NSDL Bares Cracks in India’s Market Machinery

NSDL’s settlement glitch exposed vulnerabilities in India’s market infrastructure, testing SEBI’s BCP norms and the resilience of core depository systems.

Indra Chourasia

When Risk Frameworks Fail: The ₹5.9-Billion Reality Check

The IDFC First Bank fraud exposes how formal controls collapse under pressure, revealing the dangerous gap between risk frameworks and institutional reality.

Anupam Sonal

What Will the Fed's "Warsh Era" Bring?

The next Federal Reserve chair will inherit an institution that, by any historical measure, is deeply fractured internally and lacks credibility externally. By strengthening the Fed’s analytical framework and establishing a "balance-sheet theory," Kevin Warsh can oversee the institution's return to excellence.

Mohamed A. El-Erian

Mis-selling’s Structural Problem. But, What Next?

The Finance Minister’s warning on mis-selling signals overdue consumer concern. Durable reform will require possible FSDC involvement, incentives, supervision and culture across financial regulators to change and harmonise synergies together.

Srinath Sridharan

Columnists

Michael Debabrata Patra

Michael Patra is an economist and former RBI Deputy Governor.

TK Arun

Arun is a seasoned writer on economic and policy matters.

Abheek Barua

Abheek is an Independent Economist and the Former Chief Economist at HDFC Bank.

Ajay Srivastava

Ajay Srivastava is the founder of the Global Trade Research Initiative.

Vijay Chauhan

Vijay Singh Chauhan, a former IRS official, is a Senior Visiting Fellow at ICPP, Ashoka University

Dhananjay Sinha

Dhananjay, a D-School alum, is CEO and Co-Head of Equities at Systematix Group.

Kirti Tarang Pande

Kriti is a psychologist specialising in mental health, org behaviour, and brand strategy

Srinath Sridharan

Srinath is an author, corporate advisor, and independent director on corporate boards.

Sharmila Chavaly

Ex-civil servant Chavaly held key Railways, Finance roles; specialises in infra & PPPs

Nilanjan Banik

Nilanjan Banik, Professor at Mahindra University, specialises in trade and development economics.

Sachin Malhotra

Sachin was till recently an MD with Standard Chartered Bank.

Rajesh Mahapatra

Rajesh Mahapatra is the former Editor of The Press Trust of India

Krishnadevan V

Krishnadevan is Editorial Director at BasisPoint Insight.

Dev Chandrasekhar

Chandra advises companies on big-picture narratives on strategy and markets.

Kalyan Ram

Kalyan Ram co-founded Cogencis. He now leads BasisPoint Insight.

R. Gurumurthy

Gurumurthy is an ex-central banker who handled markets, and later, financial stability for RBI.

Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain (Retd)

Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain is a former Commander of India’s Kashmir Corps.

Arvind Mayaram

Arvind Mayaram, former Finance Secretary, is Chairman of the Institute of Development Studies, Jaipur.

The Bureau

Stablecoins Are Raising New Risks for Emerging Markets

FTA Revival and Uranium Deal Could Define Carney’s Visit: GTRI

Asian Stocks Rally as AI Optimism Drives Risk On Mood

Tata Sons Board Defers Chairman Chandrasekaran’s Reappointment: Economic Times

US Slaps 126% Duty on Indian Solar Exports, Subsidised Parts From China Under Lens

DGFT Restores Duty Reversal Rates for Some Sectors, GTRI Suggests More Relief

Trump Raises Temporary Global Tariffs To 15%

Duvvuri Subbarao on India’s Growth, Inflation Targeting and Centre–State Faultlines

Learning to Shoot: I Tried to Fly Before I Could Walk

Floating: A Double-Edged Sword

Floating exchange rates were meant to absorb shocks. This essay shows how, in emerging economies, they have often magnified crises instead.

Michael Debabrata Patra

Why India’s Municipal Bonds Need Founding Rigour, Climate Reset

Budget incentives revive municipal bonds, but without restoring 2017 rigour and adding climate safeguards, cities risk fragile debt growth.

Sharmila Chavaly

Why India’s Working Capital Is Still Stuck on Paper

BL Chandak

India’s Truck Boom Is Really an Old Fleet Replacement Story

Krishnadevan V

Toward a South Asian Common Market: A Strategic Imperative

Arvind Mayaram

Listing, Legacy and Leverage at Tata Sons

R. Gurumurthy

Banking on Perfection in an Imperfect World

Indian bank stocks trade at premium multiples, but slowing incomes, retail credit risks and margin normalisation may test that confidence soon.

R. Gurumurthy

How AI and Real-Time Banking Are Turning Operational Risk Systemic Today

In a real-time, AI-driven financial system, operational risk is no longer peripheral. It is fast becoming a co-pillar of systemic stability.

Anupam Sonal

Geopolitics

Christians vs. America's Taliban

With both the Holocaust denier Nick Fuentes and more genteel post-liberal commentators calling for their own religious views to be imposed on others, traditional conservatives and Christians must speak up

Michael R. Strain

India’s Liquidity Surplus Masks a Structural Shortage?

India’s liquidity looks ample on paper, but thin reserve buffers and weak deposit elasticity reveal a deeper structural strain.

Kalyan Ram

India Is Quietly Becoming the World’s Valuation Magnet

India’s markets now price local arms above global parents. LG, Hyundai show valuation inversion, capital migration and a new listing gravity.

Chandrika Soyantar

MPC Review

RBI Minutes Show Neutral Is No Longer Tactical

Neutral is no longer a pause before easing. February’s minutes recast it as a strategy, with April’s data reset pivotal.

BasisPoint Groupthink

Geopolitics, RBI Seen Anchoring Dollar/Rupee at 90–91 by March-End: Poll

The rupee is seen ending March near 90.40, with RBI intervention and weak FDI flows limiting appreciation despite seasonal support.

Richard Fargose

Week in Numbers: Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

India’s private sector growth accelerated in February, even as a widening trade deficit, rising unemployment, and renewed FDI outflows highlighted underlying pressures.

Datametricx

Trump, Game Theory, and the Collapse of Credible Threats

Repeated reversals and institutional checks have eroded the credibility of Trump’s threats, turning shock strategy into predictable volatility.

R. Gurumurthy

Two Speeches, One Lie, and an Uncomfortable Reality

Rubio soothed Europe with familiar stories. Carney stripped them away. Two speeches, one anxious West, and what the gap means for India.

Phynix

India’s Global AI Vision Needs Reform at Home

Calls for democratised AI ring hollow unless India fixes data access rules, procurement bias, and compute policy to empower start-ups and domestic innovation

Meghna Bal

Opinion

Why India Must Stay the Course on US Trade Deal

The US ruling trims presidential power, not trade risk. India’s answer lies in deeper competitiveness, not reclaiming lost protection.

TK Arun

Opinion

India Must Reassess US Trade Deal After Tariff Ruling

Sweeping tariffs are harder to impose now. Legal options exist, but they are slower, more limited, and vulnerable to legal challenge.

Ajay Srivastava

Munich 2026 and The Limits of Strategic Comfort

Munich 2026 signals erosion of the US-led order as Europe seeks autonomy and India leverages strategic resilience in an era of competitive multipolarity.

Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain (Retd)

The End of a Lie

Mark Carney’s Davos speech declares the rules-based order a comforting fiction, urging nations to abandon complacency and confront a harsher era of power politics.

Antara Haldar

Briefing

RBI’s New FX Framework Signals Controlled Integration

India’s new FX framework deepens global integration, but reinforces capital, reporting and exposure guardrails.

V Thiagarajan

Why Exchange Rate Stability Matters More Than Ever for India

As alarmist calls on the rupee clash with the IMF’s own labels, this piece asks why exchange rates matter, and why stability cannot be left to markets alone.

Michael Debabrata Patra

Artificial Intelligence: Why the Biggest Revolution May Be Surprisingly Ordinary

Amid monumental hype, new research suggests AI is evolving like earlier technologies, making governance, not panic, the real priority.

Amitrajeet A. Batabyal*

Financing the Global South's Infrastructure Boom

Across the Global South, one of the biggest challenges is not just to build more infrastructure, but to build it right. Without institutional capacity and financial depth, the increasingly popular public-private-partnership model can backfire, creating a vicious spiral of debt, delays, and disillusionment.

Rakesh Mohan and Divya Srinivasan

West Bengal 2026: Mamata Banerjee Faces Her Toughest Political Battle

For the first time since 2011, Mamata Banerjee is going into an Assembly election without the cushion of certainty.

Amitabh Tiwari

Artificial Intelligence, Human Error, and Why Accountability Still Matters

AI dazzles, markets swing and elites stumble, yet accountability still anchors civilisation in an age of noise and overreach.

R. Gurumurthy

Tax Relief for Investors but a New Compliance Puzzle for Companies

India’s Finance Bill 2026 restores capital gains taxation on share buybacks while adding a promoter levy, raising fresh compliance and litigation risks.

Sangeeta Jain

India’s Trade Pact With Europe Offers Promise, Not Quick Gains

The India–EU FTA offers scale and promise, but strict standards, climate rules and structural gaps mean gains will be gradual, uneven and hard-earned.

G. Chandrashekhar

AI and the Global South's Next Leap Forward

The next phase of the clean-energy revolution will be led not by those who build more solar panels, but by those who modernize their grids, markets, and institutions accordingly. In fact, AI-ready grids will be as crucial to the Global South’s development as traditional infrastructure like roads and ports.

Nandan Nilekani and Ashish Khanna

Beyond the Summit: Why the Government Must Put Money Where Its Mouth Is

AI sovereignty is not about apps or agents. It rests on GPUs, high-bandwidth memory, chip fabrication, political will, and the capital to fund long-term risk.

TK Arun

Reskilling Alone Won’t Save Us From the AI Shock

Reskilling helps, but the real test lies in building sovereign compute, research depth, and new institutional responses to AI-led change.

Srinath Sridharan

Anand Venkatanarayanan

Transition Credibility, Not Climate Targets, Wins Capital

Arvind Mayaram

January Jobless Rate Ticks Up, Women Hit Harder

Akshi Chawla

Can Public Spending Finally Crowd In Private Capex?

Sharmila Kantha

RBI Wants M&A Deals Funded by Cash Flow, Not Pledged Shares

Krishnadevan V

Beyond the Hype: What AI Means for Your Career

As AI tools grow more powerful, fears are mounting that they could disrupt India’s IT-led growth and threaten white-collar jobs. The real question is whether humans and AI will compete or collaborate, and whether India can turn disruption into opportunity.

Nilanjan Banik

Will Total Return Swaps Rescue India’s Corporate Bond Market?

RBI’s TRS framework promises synthetic liquidity in corporate bonds, but without deeper cash markets, derivatives may amplify fragility, not depth.

R. Gurumurthy

Bond Market Mood Turns as Inflation Reset Cools Yields

Lower January core CPI numbers in the new series, reduced gross borrowing, and softer global yields pause the selloff, though heavy supply keeps the bears around.

Yield Scribe

Geopolitics

Rubio’s Gospel - Let’s Carve Up the Global South

At Munich, Rubio sketched a new Western century rooted in Christian civilisational pride and economic sovereignty. This is bound to unsettle post-colonial nations.

Rajesh Ramachandran

Those Who Most Need to Understand AI Don't Get It

While anyone familiar with past technological hype cycles can see that today's predominantly young technologists are overly optimistic about AI's potential benefits, mainstream economists seem to suffer from tunnel vision of a different sort. If recent history is any guide, that should worry us all.

Charles Ferguson

India’s Next Growth Phase Needs Regulatory Courage

With banks strong and inflation anchored, India’s risk is not fragility but comfort. Governing success will demand pre-emptive discipline.

Anupam Sonal

Why India’s AI Challenge Is About Power, Not Just Productivity

India’s unique opportunity to transition from back-office IT servicing to AI-building offers a promising pathway to global trade leadership in a services-driven economy.

Ninupta Srinath

The City That Breaks You, and the Rage That Fizzles Out by Sunday

A parapet falls, a life ends, and the math never adds up. Yet we navigate a city where negligence is just the cost of doing business.

Phynix

Indian IT’s AI Reckoning Is Painful but Not Terminal

NIFTY IT has fallen 25%, erasing ₹9 trillion. As AI disrupts billing models, is this capitulation or the start of a deeper reinvention?

Dhananjay Sinha

SaaSocalypse Fears Put Indian IT into an AI Reckoning

IT stocks clawed back from steep morning losses, yet the selloff says investors are repricing the model as AI turns from tailwind to threat.

Krishnadevan V

Geopolitics

Bangladesh’s Verdict Opens Door to Reset with India

BNP’s sweeping win weakens Jamaat-e-Islami and offers Delhi a cautious chance to rebuild ties after a strained interim phase.

Saibal Dasgupta

Geopolitics

Bangladesh After the Verdict: Normalisation, Borders and Strategic Patience

Bangladesh’s verdict brought clarity, not closure. Stability now hinges on inclusive politics, secure borders, minority protection and patient India engagement.

Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain (Retd)

SBI The Elephant That Compounds When Banking is Boring

Sticky deposits and steady leadership let SBI grow quietly. The real moat is trust, not flash or quarterly theatrics.

Mint Owl

SBI’s Reset Took Years. Markets Took Longer.

India’s largest lender repaired its balance sheet and rebuilt profitability well before investors were willing to re-rate the stock.

Richard Fargose

Do Strikes Still Speak to Power?

Strikes were once the clearest grammar of dissent, the sharpest interruption in the flow of authority. In an age of fractured workforces and distracted democracies, the strike remains potent, but only if we understand what it is truly meant to do.

Srinath Sridharan

The Hidden Risks of Simplifying US Bank Supervision

he Federal Reserve has recently begun to overhaul its approach to bank oversight, raising the bar for enforcement and leaning more heavily on data-driven tools. These changes could impede regulators’ ability to identify emerging risks at a time when the US financial system faces hidden losses and structural weaknesses.

Amit Seru

Kerala 2026: When History Favours Congress, But Politics Doesn’t

Anti-incumbency and arithmetic favour the UDF, yet infighting and drift threaten to undo it. Kerala’s 2026 election may hinge less on mood than on discipline.

Amitabh Tiwari

Rising Imports and Costly Supply Chains Squeeze India’s Apple Economy

India’s apple economy is at a crossroads. Imports, now equal to roughly one-fifth of domestic production, will likely expand further.

Ajay Srivastava

Opinion

Is the AI Panic Artificial?

Markets are pricing in mass job destruction, but history suggests AI will disrupt selectively, not obliterate whole sectors overnight.

TK Arun

India’s Consumption Boom Is Passing HUL By

Hindustan Unilever’s restructuring exposes execution strain as margins compress, core profits stall, and headline growth masks deeper operational weakness.

Krishnadevan V

Risk-Based Deposit Insurance Framework Could Reshape Bank Behaviour

New risk-based deposit insurance regime will end blanket protection, reward disciplined lenders, and make weak banks bear the cost of their own failures.

K. Srinivasa Rao

Bond Market-Making Needs Capital, Not Just Mandates

India wants market makers to revive corporate bond trading. Even gilts never got meaningful liquidity from mandates. Without risk capital, market-making will remain rhetoric.

R. Gurumurthy

Used Car Marketplace CarTrade Now Earns More Than India’s Carmakers

Used-car platforms like CarTrade quietly out-earn manufacturers by turning messy second-hand car markets into high-margin data, lending, and transaction infrastructure.

Krishnadevan V

Interview

Baptism by Fire and Beyond

From Lehman to taper tantrums, D. Subbarao reflects on crisis, credibility and the limits of central banking.

BasisPoint Insight

Wheat Under Heat: Rising Temperatures Raise Harvest Concerns

Rising temperatures in key northern states could impact wheat yields just as harvest nears, posing risks to supply, prices, and procurement efforts amid fragile reserves.

G. Chandrashekhar

Budget 2026

Are Indian Cities Finally Being Taken Seriously?

The Budget signals a shift in urban policy, focusing on fiscal transfers, metro-scale planning, and stronger municipal capacity over headline-grabbing schemes.

Shilpashree Venkatesh

Budget 2026

We Don’t Need No Data-Centre Coddling

Data-centre tax holidays represent oodles of government cash to favoured Indian businesses for little public benefit

TK Arun

India–US Trade Deal: Pragmatic Statecraft, Not Diplomatic Surrender

India’s US trade deal looks asymmetric on paper, but macro constraints, capital dependence and geopolitics made acceptance rational statecraft, not surrender.

R. Gurumurthy

Trump's Trade Truce Won't Restore the US-India Relationship

While the interim trade deal may ease tensions, trust – the essential currency of any strategic partnership – is unlikely to be restored any time soon.

Brahma Chellaney

MPC Review

Baby Steps, Festina Lente, and RBI’s June Policy Misstep

RBI once prized gradualism. A slower easing path may have aligned markets and transmission better than June’s big-bang move.

Kalyan Ram

TCS as Default AI Partner Could Reshape the Entire Tata Group

How TCS becoming the Tata Group’s default AI partner, amid AI-driven market shocks and heavy dividend dependence, could reshape strategy, sourcing, and governance.

Krishnadevan V

Mahindra Pursues Toyota-Inspired Consolidation to Unlock Manufacturing Scale

The ₹150 billion unified production strategy replaces dispersed facilities to compete through operational leverage, platform adaptability, and asset efficiency

Dev Chandrasekhar

SC Verdict on Tiger Global: A Case of Substance Over Form

D. V. Ramana

Bangladesh at Risk: Elections, Radicalism, and India’s Strategic Nerve

Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain (Retd)

Are SEBI’s Equity Derivatives Rules Restraining Risk or Reshaping the Future

Indra Chourasia

Inside India’s New CPI Series: Basket Revision and Methodology

Rajesh Kumar*

Washington Extracts Its Pound of Flesh from Dhaka

In exchange for a narrow and conditional promise of zero-duty access for garments made with US fibres, Bangladesh has agreed to open its market widely to the US.

Ajay Srivastava

MPC Review

Monetary Policy, Liquidity, and the Road Hereafter

Despite ample liquidity and 125-bps easing, monetary transmission stayed uneven. Bonds reflected supply fears, policy uncertainty, and muted demand.

Shubhada Rao, Vivek Kumar, and Yuvika Singhal

Budget 2026

The Governance Shift in India’s Buyback Tax

How new rates split the monolithic shareholder block into control and portfolio shareholders, reshaping corporate governance

Chandrika Soyantar

Why Indians Know More About Crypto Than Corporate Bonds

SEBI finds Indians recognise cryptocurrency over bonds. Why participation beats predictability in markets and what behavioural finance reveals about risk.

Krishnadevan V

Insurance

Who Gets to Decide What Healthcare You Deserve?

As insurers push clinical protocols and hospitals resist rigid pathways, India faces a deeper struggle over who defines medical necessity in a financialised healthcare system.

R. Gurumurthy