Opinion

RBI is Forward-Looking About Growth, Not Inflation

Growth gets preventive care; inflation must first materialise, spread and bring witnesses. The June minutes preserve the case for rate cuts while making hikes clear a far higher bar.

Kalyan Ram

linkedin.com/Poonam Gupta

Can the Rupee Go Global Without Leaving Home?

India wants a more international rupee, yet remains cautious about letting it circulate abroad. Can a global currency stay at home?

R. Gurumurthy

The Real NSE IPO Already Happened, The Listing Is Just Theatre

NSE’s “upcoming” IPO looks like a big debut, yet the hard work of going public is already done and the listing mostly rearranges the cap table.

Krishnadevan V

After the Unicorn Rush, India's Start-ups Face a Reality Check

The first decade was about scale and valuation. The next will determine whether India's start-ups can build businesses that endure.

Rakesh Khar

Weak Monsoon Threat Raises Prospect of Wider Policy Intervention

A deficient monsoon poses risks to kharif output and food inflation, potentially requiring policymakers to deploy a mix of trade, fiscal, administrative and monetary measures.

G. Chandrashekhar

Iran’s Victory Resets West Asia, Diminishes Israel, Offers India Opportunities

The Anglo-American Empire’s Iran setback should prompt the BJP-led ruling establishment to rethink its reflexive support for Israel. India must view West Asia with new power possibilities.

Rajesh Ramachandran

Why Cement's Next Battle Won't Be About Capacity

India's cement industry is entering a fifth act where networks, logistics, carbon efficiency and calcined clay may define value.

Chandrika Soyantar

Columnists

Michael Debabrata Patra

Michael Patra is an economist and former RBI Deputy Governor.

Abheek Barua

Abheek is an Independent Economist and the Former Chief Economist at HDFC Bank.

Ajay Srivastava

Ajay Srivastava is the founder of the Global Trade Research Initiative.

Vijay Chauhan

Vijay Singh Chauhan, a former IRS official, is a Senior Visiting Fellow at ICPP, Ashoka University

Dhananjay Sinha

Dhananjay, a D-School alum, is CEO and Co-Head of Equities at Systematix Group.

Kirti Tarang Pande

Kriti is a psychologist specialising in mental health, org behaviour, and brand strategy

Srinath Sridharan

Srinath is an author, corporate advisor, and independent director on corporate boards.

Sharmila Chavaly

Ex-civil servant Chavaly held key Railways, Finance roles; specialises in infra & PPPs

Nilanjan Banik

Nilanjan Banik, Professor at Mahindra University, specialises in trade and development economics.

Rahul Ghosh

Rahul Ghosh is a banking and risk expert.

Rajesh Mahapatra

Rajesh Mahapatra is the former Editor of The Press Trust of India

Krishnadevan V

Krishnadevan is Editorial Director at BasisPoint Insight.

Dev Chandrasekhar

Chandra advises companies on big-picture narratives on strategy and markets.

Kalyan Ram

Kalyan Ram co-founded Cogencis. He now leads BasisPoint Insight.

R. Gurumurthy

Gurumurthy is an ex-central banker who handled markets, and later, financial stability for RBI.

Arvind Mayaram

Arvind Mayaram, former Finance Secretary, is Chairman of the Institute of Development Studies, Jaipur.

The Bureau

Equities Snap Five-Day Rally as IT Stocks Slump; Rupee Posts Best Gains in 11 Weeks

How Tariff Policies Are Undermining Value-Added Manufacturing

Risk-On Mood Holds as Hormuz Reopens, Though Geopolitical Risks Linger

Fed Holds Rates, but Warsh Debut Delivers Hawkish Reset

US-Iran Interim Accord Takes Effect, Hormuz Prioritised

Silver Imports Plunge After Duty Hike and Import Restrictions: GTRI

Gold Imports Remain Strong Despite Sharp Duty Hike: GTRI

The Central Banking Desk: BoJ Hits 1% As Fed Gets Oil Reprieve

Flawed Design, Poor Planning Make Extreme Heat Conditions Worse For Indian Cities

Learning to Shoot: I Tried to Fly Before I Could Walk

BasisPoint Groupthink

Warsh’s Fed has Put Inflation Credibility Ahead of Market Comfort

The new Chair’s hawkish debut was less about an imminent rate rise than restoring discipline, credibility and uncertainty to US monetary policy.

BasisPoint Groupthink

Trump’s Iran Deal: This Is What Cutting Losses Looks Like

The agreement is neither victory nor surrender. It is Washington’s recognition that a costly war had stopped serving American interests and that even Israel cannot dictate the limits of US strategy.

BasisPoint Groupthink

The Central Banking Desk: Warsh’s Fed Puts Hikes Back on the Table

Daily insights on the decisions, signals and risks shaping central-bank policy across the world’s major economies.

BasisPoint Insight

Masterclass with Michael Patra

Central Banking 101: The Rise and Fall of Monetary Policy Regimes

From the collapse of Bretton Woods to the rise and fall of monetary targeting, central banks kept reinventing policy anchors.

Michael Debabrata Patra

Telegram Ban: No Neat Answer To A NEET Failure

Telegram did not create examination leaks, and blocking it cannot substitute for root-cause analysis, effective accountability and institutional reform.

Srinath Sridharan

Producer Price Index to Sharpen India’s Inflation, GDP Data

India’s shift from WPI to PPI will sharpen inflation data, improve GDP deflation and align official statistics more closely with global norms.

Gaura Sen Gupta

India Should Discourage Excessive Investments in Equities

As money pours into equities, foreign investors cash out at lofty valuations, raising pressure on the rupee and creating wider economic risks.

Vivek Kaul

When the Strongest Move Is Not to Move

As inflation risks collide with softer growth, the RBI's hold reflects a harder test of monetary policy: knowing when not to overreact.

Sparsh Chhabra

The US-Iran Agreement Is a First Step

The US-Iran agreement has calmed markets. But can it withstand the political and economic challenges ahead?

Mohamed A. El-Erian

From Prudential Sufficiency to System Stewardship

Basel III made banks safer, but today's risks lie across markets, technology and networks. Regulators are shifting towards system stewardship.

Anupam Sonal

India’s Balance of Payments: Time for a New Paradigm

Foreign capital solved yesterday's problem. It may now be standing in the way of tomorrow's growth.

Jayanth R. Varma

What Did The Green Revolution in India Do To Farm Size-Productivity Relationship?

Small and very large farms are highly productive, while medium-sized ones are the least. The Green Revolution aided the use of high-yielding varieties, and steepened the gradient of technology adoption, enhancing productivity and resulting in a U-shaped pattern.

Amitrajeet A. Batabyal*

India's Diagnostics Boom Is Becoming a Consumer Subscription Story

The market thinks diagnostics companies sell tests. The underlying mechanism rewards companies that turn occasional patients into recurring consumers.

Krishnadevan V

When Vedanta Meets Wall Street’s Trillion-Dollar Valuations

Trillion-dollar valuations have turned markets metaphysical. Vedanta may explain price, value, and belief better than spreadsheets.

R. Gurumurthy

Credit Surge Tests Banks’ Liquidity Defences and ALM Discipline

Rapid credit expansion is outpacing deposit growth, forcing banks to rethink liquidity management and build more durable ALM strategies.

K. Srinivasa Rao

Could Indonesia’s Sovereign Fund Show India a Better Way?

Indonesia’s Dananatara offers lessons in managing state assets. India may need a more unified model to unlock value and fund growth.

Abheek Barua

The Warsh Reset and Four Ways the Fed Could Change

Kevin Warsh could reshape Fed communication, inflation signals, balance-sheet policy and employment goals, marking a decisive break from the Powell era.

V Thiagarajan

India’s Sovereign AI Push Gets a Tailwind from Sarvam’s Round

Sarvam’s $234 million raise makes it a unicorn but exposes a tougher question: can India really fund sovereign AI at the scale that now counts?

Krishnadevan V

Two Chairs, One Question in Banking Governance

Separate roles do not guarantee better governance. Banking oversight ultimately depends on independent judgement, competence and the willingness to challenge.

R. Gurumurthy

India’s PLI Push Needs an Exit Test

India’s PLI schemes show strong output gains, but without exit criteria, temporary support risks becoming permanent industrial policy by default.

Sagari Gupta

When Strategic Partnership Becomes Strategic Dependence

As Washington grows more transactional and the world becomes more fragmented, India may need to reassess how much strategic autonomy it truly possesses.

Anand Venkatanarayanan

When States Compete, Can Economics Trump Politics?

As states battle for capital, Niti Aayog faces a crucial test: can economics trump politics in India's growth story?

Rakesh Khar

Netanyahu Wanted This War; He’s Getting Trump’s Peace

The Israeli prime minister now faces the likelihood that the regime he swore to destroy will outlast him.

Bobby Ghosh

Corporate India Rushes to Lock in Lower Borrowing Costs

Corporate India shifts from survival borrowing to opportunistic borrowing as bond yields retreat.

Venkatakrishnan Srinivasan

State Bonds Start Pricing Fiscal Discipline

As states rely more on markets, investors are beginning to reward stronger balance sheets and penalise fiscal slippage.

Sujit Kumar*

RBI’s FCNR Swap Faces a Basel Reality Check

RBI’s FCNR swap may echo 2013, but Basel rules, dollar-funding stress and forward liabilities make this a harder trade.

V Thiagarajan

The Luxury of Patience in an Impatient World

A Japanese bestseller, an RBI dilemma and an AI bubble all point to the same uncomfortable question: when does buying time stop being a strategy?

Phynix

Week in Numbers: Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

The latest retail inflation and current account deficit data were positive surprises despite the war in West Asia.

Datametricx

Geopolitics

Can Military Superiority Still Deliver Political Success?

From Vietnam to Ukraine and Gaza, modern wars reveal a hard truth: battlefield success is no longer a reliable path to desired political outcomes.

Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain (Retd)

Why This Rupee Episode Is Different

The rupee’s decline is the mildest in decades. The bigger challenge is converting temporary inflows into lasting external stability.

Sameer Narang

The One Word That Explains SEBI's Entire Reform Agenda

SEBI wants capital, information and liquidity to move faster. The next market shock will reveal whether speed comes at a cost.

Krishnadevan V

Beyond Minimum Wages: Karnataka and India's Search for a New Growth Compact

It is important for India to look at other measures such as lower transaction costs, faster business approvals and a more predictable regulatory environment to strengthen workers, without weakening competitiveness.

Arvind Mayaram

Will Better District-Level Data Help Address Regional Inequalities?

One region can skew the data for the entire state and hence sub-regional calculation of GDP is expected to improve evidence-based, decentralised policymaking and targeted interventions across India’s approximately 800 administrative units.

Sharmila Kantha

Opinion

The Unravelling of the Trinamool

Electoral defeat, internal revolt and Bengal's shifting political landscape have left Mamata Banerjee confronting the gravest crisis of her career.

Rajesh Ramachandran

Should India Create More Cooperative Banks, or Better Banks?

As the RBI considers issuing new cooperative bank licences after a 22-year pause, the real question is whether India needs more banks at all or better banks.

Alpana Killawala

RBI Can Cushion the Rupee, But West Asia Still Holds the Trigger

The rupee may avoid a slide towards 100 for now, but RBI measures cannot fully offset oil shocks, war risk and India’s external deficit.

Richard Fargose

World’s Biggest AI Rulebook Is Already Being Rewritten

Europe’s AI law shows why India may be right to build oversight capacity before rushing into a full statute.

Pranav Rai

CJP — Does It Carry Enough Sting in the Tail?

Can CJP move from recognition to trust, from Jantar Mantar to the ballot box, and from Instagram to organisation?

Amitabh Tiwari

What SpaceX's IPO Tells Us About the AI Bubble

Bubbles are hard to spot in real time, but a rush of big-ticket share sales has often been one warning sign investors ignore.

Vivek Kaul

Over-The-Top Justice on OTT Courtroom Drama

As courtroom dramas dominate OTT platforms, are viewers being shown the law—or merely a dramatized illusion of it? When entertainment simplifies complex legal realities, what impact does it have on society's understanding of justice, crime and accountability?

Ninupta Srinath

Tracking Periods Is Easier Than Treating Women's Pain

Menstrual health is often framed through hygiene and awareness, while pain, diagnosis and access to care receive far less attention.

Ketaki Thakur

When Investor Protection Prevents Investors From Selling

The market thinks lower circuits protect investors. Rajesh Exports shows they can also prevent investors from selling.

Krishnadevan V

RBI Has Bought Time, Reforms Must Do the Rest

India’s central bank has secured breathing room amid mounting external pressures. Whether that respite endures now depends on reforms beyond Mint Street.

Srinath Sridharan

Anand Venkatanarayanan

Google's Invisible Keywords Spell Visible Trouble, Court Limits Safe-Harbour Defence

In the Hindware suit, the Delhi High Court held Google liable for trademark infringement for selling and allowing use of Hindware’s trademark as a keyword even if it was invisible to users.

Shruti Mahajan

Why India’s Pakistan Policy Needs a Serious Review

The case is not for a reset, but for sober management of a fraught relationship

Ashok K. Kantha

Learning to Live with Impossible Trinity

An effort to understand current monetary policy actions as the RBI navigates the impossible trinity of inflation, growth and external stability.

Arvind Chari

Monetary Policy's New Catch-22

With consumer inflation appearing repressed despite mounting price pressures, the RBI's decision to prioritise capital inflows over rate hikes carries growing risks.

Rupa Rege Nitsure

Opinion

Capital Measures Buy Time, Credibility Wins Capital

India's latest capital-flow measures can buy time and attract dollars, but history suggests that credibility, not financial engineering, determines if such bridges hold.

V Thiagarajan

SpaceX Is the New East India Company

Although SpaceX is not about to rule over foreign subjects, as the chartered companies founded in the early modern era did, it, too, is operating beyond the reach of any sovereign. And like its predecessors, it has already accumulated immense powers that governments will struggle to reclaim.

Alessio Terzi and Stefano Marcuzzi

Can RBI's Capital Flow Push Offset Global Yield Pressures?

The RBI has opened the door wider for foreign capital. Whether investors step in will depend less on policy changes and more on where global yields head next.

Yashveer Singh

Has The Market Overpriced India's Rate Risk?

Markets may have mistaken a funding and BoP problem for an interest-rate problem. RBI's latest measures could ease pressure on OIS, yields and the rupee.

Yield Scribe

Seventeen Years After Satyam, Who Audits The Auditors?

Auditors are paid by companies they examine, but trusted by investors and lenders. Cases like Rajesh Exports raise questions about who they truly serve.

Krishnadevan V

Why Oil Price Spike May Trigger Supply Wave

Today’s oil shortage could keep prices volatile near term, but sustained high prices may spur new supply and alternative routes.

Anuj Agarwal

A Tale of Two Forces: Navigating India's Exogenous and Endogenous Factors

While India cannot do much for external factors, it is time the government takes a strong look at what reforms it can bring in to stabilise the economy and lead the next phase of growth.

Nilanjan Banik

From Oil Shocks to Supply Chain Shocks, India Must Rethink Resilience

India has largely overcome the vulnerabilities of 1991. The next external shock may arrive through supply chains, technology and trade networks.

Shilpashree Venkatesh

Karnataka Minimum Wage Hike: Good for Workers, Worrisome for Enterprises

The state government has notified a 60% hike in minimum wages in the state. What it must now do is support organisations to be able to afford it.

Sharmila Kantha

Indonesia’s Resource Nationalism: Is India Ready with a Plan?

Indonesia’s push towards resource nationalism could reshape global commodity trade. With India reliant on Indonesian palm oil, coal, and nickel, is New Delhi prepared to secure supplies and manage emerging risks?

G. Chandrashekhar

Behind the Suzlon 2.0 Vision Is the Outline of an InvIT

The wind major has rebuilt itself into four businesses and pledged to quadruple both its annual sales and the fleet it services by 2031. Its most valuable promise is a swelling base of annuity assets, the kind of cashflow that tends to end up packaged and listed.

Dev Chandrasekhar

Opinion

FX Measures Could Attract Up to $75 Billion of Debt Inflows

FCNR deposits, ECB incentives and foreign investment reforms could help offset persistent equity outflows and strengthen India's external position.

Yield Scribe

Ten-Year Yield May Drift To 7.25-7.50% By March

The RBI’s rupee-support package should give gilts near-term respite, but inflation, fiscal risks and the expected turn in the policy cycle could push up yields.

Shubhada Rao, Vivek Kumar, and Yuvika Singhal

Cockroaches, Central Banks and the Business of Trust

A protest movement found its mascot, the RBI found some breathing room, and corporate India carried on as usual.

Phynix

When Good News Turns Bad for Markets

A strong US jobs report rattled markets, exposing the tension between resilient growth, stubborn inflation, elevated rates and stretched AI valuations.

Dhananjay Sinha

Beyond Signing FTAs: What India's Trade Strategy Needs Next

India is poised to operationalise multiple FTAs. But with low rates and industrial policy misaligned with trade objectives, agreements alone may not be enough.

Rochelle Prakash

Deep Pal

The Limits of Military Technology?

Weapons evolve, battlefields change, technology advances. Yet wars are still decided by human endurance, conviction and will.

Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain (Retd)

Monetary Policy

FX Firewall Buys the RBI Time

The rupee no longer needs rescuing through rates, but inflation may still require 50-75 bps of tightening in the months ahead.

Shailendra Jhingan

India's Growth Puzzle Is Really About Capability

India's growth challenge may lie less in capital or demand and more in whether the economy is building capabilities to compete, innovate, and move up the value chain.

Arvind Mayaram

Monetary Policy

RBI’s Capital Inflow Bet Buys Time, Not a Solution

The RBI has chosen capital-account tools over interest rates to tackle external pressures. The strategy may ease near-term stress, but deeper vulnerabilities remain.

Dhananjay Sinha

Monetary Policy

Dollars Now, Rates Later

RBI's June policy separated tools and timing: BoP stress got an immediate response, while inflation must clear a higher threshold before rates move.

Kalyan Ram

Week in Numbers: Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

The Indian economy grew faster than expected in January-March, even as the RBI cut its 2026-27 growth forecast by 30 bps to 6.6%.

Datametricx

Monetary Policy

RBI's Dollar Toolkit May Be Too Small for the Problem

The latest measures may attract incremental inflows at the margin. They are unlikely to generate the scale of capital needed to materially ease external-sector pressures.

V Thiagarajan

Monetary Policy

The MPC’s Most Overdue Cut

Friday’s MPC may leave the repo untouched, but markets want Malhotra to trim Goldilocks, resilience, robustness, nimbleness, and other overworked clichés.

BasisPoint Insight

Monetary Policy

The Rupee Does Not Need a Speaking Role in Monetary Policy

The June review will be scrutinised for clues on how the MPC views rupee weakness, as an inflation risk or as a monetary policy consideration.

BasisPoint Groupthink

Geopolitics

The US and India Have Become Regional Rivals

While the US views India as a counterweight to China in Asia, it balks at the idea of Indian regional dominance, preferring a pluralistic order. The Trump administration has gone further by pursuing close ties with Pakistan, apparently hoping that the US and India can remain global partners.

Brahma Chellaney

Monetary Policy

Using Monetary Policy’s Degrees of Freedom

Calls for rate hikes to support the rupee overlook the flexibility built into India’s inflation-targeting framework and the RBI’s wider toolkit.

Ashima Goyal

Cockroaches May Be Videshi, But The Rot Is Desi

This is the inflection point before a steep decline in the bell curve of the people’s trust in the government. If it cannot even conduct annual exams diligently, how can it make people’s lives better?

Rajesh Ramachandran

What is More Desirable from a Central Bank – Surplus or Strength?

Markets cheered the RBI's record surplus transfer. The bigger debate is whether strength, not surplus, should be a central bank's priority.

Alpana Killawala

Monetary Policy

External Stress Needs a Monetary Anchor

Persistent BoP stress may need pre-emptive rate hikes before currency weakness hardens inflation expectations.

Dhiraj Nim

India’s Fiscal Architecture Cannot Manage Two Demographic Futures

As southern India ages and the north remains demographically young, NFHS-6 shows up the limits of a fiscal architecture designed for convergence.

Sagari Gupta

Monetary Policy

Every RBI Word, Said and Unsaid, Will Matter This Week

Markets expect no surprise on rates. Their attention will instead be fixed on the signals, nuances and omissions that reveal how the RBI views inflation, growth and uncertainty.

Srinath Sridharan

Rememberance

Keynes Was Doing Buffett Before Buffett Was Born

Not on Wall Street. On Trinity Street, Cambridge, UK — a generation before Buffett and Munger, forty years before behavioural finance had a name.

Chandrika Soyantar

Masterclass with Michael Patra

Central Banking 101: RBI and the Safeguarding of Confidence

Michael Patra traces the evolution of the RBI and its role in safeguarding trust, stability and confidence in India’s financial system in his NIBM lecture. This is part two of the Masterclass series.

Michael Debabrata Patra

When ESOPs Create Debt Before They Create Wealth

How SEBI's ESOP pledge ruling affects designated employees, insider-trading risk and the growing debt trap inside India's startup economy.

Krishnadevan V

Monetary Policy

Malhotra's “Whatever It Takes” Moment

Capital outflows, balance of payments pressures, and slowing deposit growth may require coordinated RBI-government action to attract dollars and funding.

Yield Scribe

How a Wartime Rent Freeze Became Mumbai's Strange Inheritance

What began as a wartime safeguard for tenants evolved into something few anticipated: inherited access to some of Mumbai's most valuable addresses.

Aadya Tyagi

Unilever's India Party Meets Reliance's Guest List

Unilever is betting heavily on India through HUL. Can premiumisation, distribution strength and brand acquisitions justify its valuation?

Krishnadevan V

Monetary Policy

The RBI's June Dilemma: Credibility Without the Hike

The macro backdrop has deteriorated materially since April. But the case for a June rate hike is weaker than the market noise suggests.

Radhika Piplani

Monetary Policy

Risk-Reward Trade-Off Favours a Hawkish Hold by RBI MPC

RBI may hold rates, but rupee pressure, crude risks and Taylor-rule arithmetic argue for a more hawkish policy tone.

Abhishek Upadhyay

Monetary Policy

Will RBI Bite the Bullet or Kick the Can Down the Road, Again?

As inflation risks mount and the rupee weakens, questions grow over whether the RBI delayed policy action despite warning signals.

Abhiman Das

Smita Roy Trivedi

India's Problem Is Not the Storm; It is the Lull Before

External shocks will come and go. The real test of an economy is whether its institutions, productivity and competitiveness are strong enough to withstand them.

R. Gurumurthy

BasisPoint Groupthink

India May Need an Outside-In Economic Reset

As the global economy changes shape, India may benefit from an independent economic rethink led by a credible outsider with institutional gravitas.

Kalyan Ram

Bank Indonesia Has Chosen Currency Defence Over Comfort

The rupiah’s slide left Bank Indonesia with shrinking room for patience. The 50-bp hike is as much about credibility as inflation.

BasisPoint Groupthink

Opinion

Is India’s Energy Shock the Same as the Pandemic Shock?

The RBI appears willing to look through the oil shock, but inflation risks are structurally different from the COVID-era disruptions that justified prolonged accommodation.

Kalyan Ram

Health Cess Promise Lost in Fiscal Accounting

CAG findings show that more than half the health cess collected over seven years was not transferred to the designated fund.

D. V. Ramana

El Nino May Lower Harvest; But Won’t Compromise Food Security

The southwest monsoon may be deficient, but significant procurement in the past has ensured that India has adequate supply of foodgrain for her population.so

G. Chandrashekhar

Geopolitics

Why There Will be No Single Model of Future War?

Future wars may not follow one template as Ukraine, Gaza and Gulf tensions show theatre-specific conflicts shaped by geography, technology, politics and national resilience today.

Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain (Retd)

Anil Ambani Insolvency, One-Time Spectrum Charge Against Telcos & More

Your weekly rundown of significant judicial rulings and legal battles influencing policy, companies, regulation, and governance

BasisPoint Insight