MPC Meeting

Case for a Hawkish 25-bps Hike

A timely rate hike will allow the RBI to avoid bigger hikes that are disorderly and hurt growth, with 3–4 hikes needed to achieve neutral monetary policy settings.

Abhishek Upadhyay

The Climate Action Paradox: Why Catastrophe Has Not Produced Transformation

Wars, pandemics and financial crises have forced sweeping change. Why has climate catastrophe struggled to do the same—and what would it take to break the pattern?

Arvind Mayaram

Indian Diplomacy in Crisis Mode

India’s strategic autonomy is under growing strain as Washington’s renewed engagement with Pakistan, pressure over Russian oil and the deepening US-China rivalry complicate its choices.

Rajesh Ramachandran

Normal Bond Yields, Abnormal Debt

Bond yields may be returning to old levels, but far higher debt burdens give governments powerful reasons to keep real returns suppressed.

Sanjay Mansabdar

India’s Stocks Need More Than a Tax Cut

Lower taxes can improve investors’ returns, but cannot fix weak earnings or create the stocks large foreign funds need.

Krishnadevan V

Stocks Slide, but the Government’s Tax Take Keeps Rising

Seven weeks of losses revive calls to rethink STT and capital gains tax, exposing the strain in India’s equity tax bargain.

Ujval Nanavati

What Household Surveys Reveal About India’s Growth Disconnect

RBI consumer surveys suggest the gap between reported growth and household experience is being driven less by inflation than by concerns over jobs and economic conditions.

Deepa Vasudevan

Columnists

Vivek Kaul

Vivek Kaul is a writer and an economic commentator.

Michael Debabrata Patra

Michael Patra is an economist and former RBI Deputy Governor.

Duvvuri Subbarao

Dr Subbarao is a former governor of RBI

Arvind Mayaram

Arvind Mayaram, former Finance Secretary, is Chairman of the Institute of Development Studies, Jaipur.

Ashima Goyal

Dr Ashima Goyal is an Economist, Ex MPC Member.

Ajay Srivastava

Ajay Srivastava is the founder of the Global Trade Research Initiative.

Abheek Barua

Abheek is an Independent Economist and the Former Chief Economist at HDFC Bank.

Vijay Chauhan

Vijay Singh Chauhan, a former IRS official, is a Senior Visiting Fellow at ICPP, Ashoka University

R. Gurumurthy

Gurumurthy is an ex-central banker who handled markets, and later, financial stability for RBI.

Gaura Sen Gupta

Gaura is Chief Economist at IDFC First Bank.

Sharmila Kantha

Sharmila Kantha is an industrial policy specialist and author.

Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain (Retd)

Lt Gen Hasnain is Governor, Bihar, and Former Commander of Chinar Corps.

Dhananjay Sinha

Dhananjay, a D-School alum, is CEO and Co-Head of Equities at Systematix Group.

Sharmila Chavaly

Ex-civil servant Chavaly held key Railways, Finance roles; specialises in infra & PPPs

Srinath Sridharan

Srinath is an author, corporate advisor, and independent director on corporate boards.

Amitabh Tiwari

Amitabh Tiwari tracks politics with a strategic eye

Vivek Kaul

Vivek Kaul is a writer and an economic commentator.

Michael Debabrata Patra

Michael Patra is an economist and former RBI Deputy Governor.

The Bureau

RBI MPC’s October Hike May be Easy Call; Size of Rate Cycle is Bigger Debate

Gilts Look Beyond Expected RBI Hike to Liquidity Action, Policy Guidance

Finance Ministry Flags Inflation Pressures

Benchmark 10-year gilt yield seen steady at 7.15% Oct-end; RBI October rate hike priced in

September Rush Keeps First-Half Corporate Bond Issuance Near Last Year’s Level

Week in Numbers: Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

Was the Import Duty Cut for Vegetable Oils Really Needed?

El Nino to Reduce Kharif Production for 2026-27, Rabi Crops Also Under Stress

GDP, Geoeconomics & The China Conundrum?

In Search of the Lesser Florican

Maneet Pal Singh

BasisPoint Groupthink

What Is the RBI Hiking For?

RBI looks set to hike. The real question is whether it is catching up with markets or committing to a sustained fight to restore inflation to 4%.

BasisPoint Groupthink

The GDP Debate India Should Welcome and Sustain

The argument over India’s growth numbers is healthy because it has shifted attention from identity politics to jobs, investment and policy.

BasisPoint Groupthink

Much Sho-Sha About Fufa

In the national family quarrel, the host wants applause, the critics want humble pie, and the taxpayer would rather somebody produce the accounts.

BasisPoint Insight

Two Tales of Trade Turnarounds

India’s export revival has produced two unlikely reversals: refined petroleum flowing to Russia and Gujarat Hilsa finding its way to Bangladesh.

Michael Debabrata Patra

Masterclass with Michael Patra

The Pipes: Monetary Policy Transmission

Setting the repo rate is only the start. Michael Patra explains how monetary policy reaches the economy, and what gets lost along the way.

Michael Debabrata Patra

Tata Sons Tests the Limits of Shareholder Control

A disputed chairman’s appointment has exposed a harder question than who gets the job. Can Tata Sons’ rules settle a consequential decision when its board and majority shareholder disagree?

Krishnadevan V

When Regulators Become a Source of the Uncertainty they Seek to Reduce

Regulators must act against genuine risk, but frequent rule changes can unsettle markets. Credibility rests on restraint as much as intervention.

R. Gurumurthy

Opinion

IRDAI, Insurance Companies and the Hunt for New Bakras

IRDAI wants to curb front-loaded commissions and mis-selling, but entrenched distribution incentives may simply shift rather than disappear under the new rules.

Vivek Kaul

The Cost That Falls Either Way: How India Should Deploy Its Liquidity Surplus

India’s FCNR-driven liquidity surplus leaves the RBI deciding where sterilisation costs should fall, even as banks face growing incentives to move excess reserves into credit.

Anil Katia

Bond Markets Enter the MPC With More Than the Next Rate Hike at Stake

Carry losses, divergent rate expectations and supply pressures leave bond investors weighing more than the next repo move ahead of the MPC.

Yield Scribe

Audit the FTAs

An FTA gives away tariff revenue and policy space in return for market access, investment and exports. India should publish the balance sheet of every such bargain, measure what it delivered and learn from it before negotiating the next one.

Srinath Sridharan

Arjun Raghavendra M.

The Twin Liquidity Deficits and India’s Equity Market

India’s secondary market is under stress as investors are choosing short-term gains in IPOs over long-term investments in listed stocks.

Chokkalingam G

Let NSE (and BSE) Self-List with the Right Framework

SEBI is right about the potential conflict of interest, but the answer should be to regulate it rather than eliminate it.

R. Sridharan

India Inc’s Next Red Flag May Not Be Debt, It May Be Unpaid Invoices

Receivables that outpace sales can expose the cash demands behind rapid growth, well before rising debt attracts investors’ attention.

Ritesh Kumar Singh

India’s Credit Boom Needs a Stronger Link to Investment and Employment

India’s credit surge needs to translate into productive assets and lasting jobs, not merely larger loan books and higher collateral values.

Kalluru Siva Reddy

Chinmay Joshi

The SIR Conundrum and the Controversy Over Differences Among Election Commissioners

India's Election Commission finds itself in the most serious credibility crisis of its history, and this time the trouble isn't coming from outside the institution — it's coming from within.

Amitabh Tiwari

India’s GDP Data Puzzle: Pronab Sen on Deflators, Revisions and Trust

Rajesh Mahapatra

1 in 7 People + $1 Trillion Lost: João Santos on EU-India Skills & Economic Resilience

Kirti Tarang Pande

Iran War Shadow: Livelihood Under Pressure in Post-MGREGA Rural India?

Rajesh Mahapatra

Duvvuri Subbarao on India’s Growth, Inflation Targeting and Centre–State Faultlines

Manoj Rane

Why Corporate India Should Look Beyond the Headline GDP Numbers

Rising input costs, shrinking margins, and weak investment suggest corporate value addition is lagging behind India’s headline GDP and GVA growth.

Dhananjay Sinha

IRDAI Must Finally Put Some Bite Behind Its Rules

After years of mis-selling and claims grievances, IRDAI is tightening distribution rules. But will lower commissions curb bad incentives, or simply push them elsewhere?

Srinath Sridharan

AI and the Fiscal Blind Spot

AI may ease fiscal pressures, but sovereign debt markets must weigh the promise of higher revenues against the costs of labour-market disruption.

V Thiagarajan

TRAI Directive Could Expose Telecom’s Pricing Trick

The telecom sector regulator wants to let customers refuse mobile data they do not use. For telecom investors, the test is whether operators can offer that choice without weakening the value of a basic connection.

Krishnadevan V

The Opposing Forces Reshaping Global Finance

Financial technology is accelerating global integration, while geopolitical tensions are driving fragmentation. How will these opposing forces reshape finance over the next five years?

Mohamed A. El-Erian

Regulating for the Public Good

The RBI, SEBI and IRDAI share a public purpose. Their recent interventions show why preparation and communication matter as much as intent.

Babuji K

A Tale of Two (Debt) Burdens

India and the US have both built up unsustainable debt. In India, the cost of the debt is the issue, while in the US the problem is that of the size of the debt.

Sanjay Mansabdar

Lies, Election Lies, and Trump's Statisticians

An obviously amateurish brief published by the US Census Bureau should raise alarms for all businesses, investors, and others who rely on official government statistics. By recklessly undermining trust in what should be an apolitical public service, Donald Trump is jeopardizing a critical pillar of American prosperity.

Michael R. Strain

Where Trade, Capital and Technology Meet Their Most Friction Points

Trade, debt, monetary policy, energy, manufacturing and technology reveal the pressures reshaping India's economy.

Phynix

The Independent Director Indian Cooperative Banks Have Long Been Missing

Cooperative banks need more than professional expertise. Independent judgement must improve oversight without displacing elected representatives

Rabi N. Mishra

Komal Gupta

Court Unquote

SAP-Nayara, SEBI-Adani, PILs Against Poll Panel, ASGs for Southern States & More

Your weekly rundown of significant judicial rulings and legal battles influencing policy, companies, regulation, and governance

BasisPoint Insight

A Century of Excellence and a Rather Eventful Two Decades: Notes From Inside the Tata Group

A deadpan field guide to corporate feelings, by an ex-employee who reads the news between thriller and drama series.

Ashutosh Tyagi

NSE’s Muted Debut Tests the Strength of India’s IPO Boom

NSE’s subdued listing, rising OFS share and weaker IPO pops show a primary market still breaking records, even as investors grow more selective and retail risks mount.

Ganga Narayan Rath

Chirayu Sharma

Why FIIs Will Continue to Be Naraaz Fufajis

Earning decent returns at home, and without the risks that come with investing in India, FIIs have little reason to make up with us.

Vivek Kaul

The Myth of Safe Haven

Gold is supposed to protect us when the world becomes dangerous. So why is it falling precisely when war, inflation and geopolitical risk are rising? The word “safe” hides a question the mind would rather not ask: safe from what?

Kirti Tarang Pande

How Do Employers Screen Recent Graduates in India?

The availability of information about human capital is not enough to ensure employers actually use it while making hiring decisions.

Amitrajeet A. Batabyal*

Distorted Price Signals: Tariffs, Interest Rates, and Global Inflation in 2026

In a world governed by signals, goverments are increasingly walking the tightrope between achieving policy objectives and the side-effects of their actions

Nilanjan Banik

Airtel Needs More Than a ₹50 Upgrade to Defend Its Premium

Airtel’s premium valuation rests on sustained ARPU growth, profitable broadband expansion and credible returns beyond its core telecom business.

Krishnadevan V

India’s Push for Manufacturing Medical Devices Moves From Crisis Management To Technology Development

India has built manufacturing capacity since COVID-19, but import dependence in high-end devices shows that technology sovereignty remains unfinished.

Sagar Desai

Basis Life

What Was Really Being Given?

Behind a box with a red bow, there’s a whole lot going on.

Kalyani Srinath

Basis Life

I Miss You, ELBS And Mir: When Affordable Knowledge Meant Great Books

ELBS and Mir gave generations of Indian students access to world-class textbooks at prices they could afford. Their quiet gift deserves to be remembered.

Shubhranshu

Basis Life

Bengaluru Meets Its Newest Driver: Artificial Intelligence

The city that gave India its tech revolution is now preparing to find out whether artificial intelligence can survive its traffic

R. Gurumurthy

After the Swap Window: Managing What the Rupee Rescue Has Left Behind

Record reserves have not lifted the rupee, and the RBI's FCNR(B) window has left a liquidity surplus and a repayment schedule to be managed. Emergency windows should run on rules fixed before they open.

Arvind Mayaram

Tokenisation Can Fix Bond Plumbing. It Cannot Create Liquidity

SEBI's Demat 2.0 pilot can modernise how corporate bonds settle, but deeper markets will depend on broader participation, price discovery and risk-taking capital.

Amit Sinha

GIFT City’s Regulatory Paradox

Can GIFT City become truly global without rethinking how it regulates? Its next leap may depend less on new permissions and more on removing unnecessary regulatory friction.

R. Gurumurthy

Geopolitics

India and the Changing Geometry of Great-Power Relations

India’s strategic autonomy is being tested as the US, China and Russia pursue overlapping interests, forcing New Delhi to balance partnerships without losing room to manoeuvre.

Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain (Retd)

Make in India at a Crossroads: Eleven Years On, Does the Policy Need a Rethink?

It is time to re-evaluate the scheme, sharpening the parts that deliver, redesigning or retiring the parts that don't, and setting sector-specific benchmarks where progress can be tracked transparently.

Ganga Narayan Rath and Chirayu Sharma

Why Are Bond Yields Unyielding?

Rising bond yields flag doubts about fiscal discipline, inflation risks and competition for capital. India is not immune to the global repricing.

Michael Debabrata Patra

RBI’s Room to Stay on Hold Narrows as Domestic, Global Risks Converge

Inflation is broadening, growth is holding up and global rates are moving higher. The RBI can still wait, but the cost of waiting is becoming harder to ignore.

Nishat Anjum

The Chairman and the Boulder

Noel Tata’s inherited burdens evoke Sisyphus, but corporate leadership demands a result, not endless effort, as Tata Sons’ listing test turns into an open boardroom fight.

The Independent Director

India’s Copper Capacity Has Been Built on an Imported Foundation

India is adding copper smelting capacity, but heavy dependence on imported raw material is exposing a huge gap between building furnaces and securing the copper concentrate needed to keep them running.

Atul Prakash

The Fight For The Dalit Vote in Uttar Pradesh

Six months to polls, and political parties are wooing the electorate, one community at a time

Amitabh Tiwari

Gold Loans – The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

Gold loans are booming, but rising borrowing and falling real incomes suggest the surge may also reflect financial stress among Indian households

Vivek Kaul

Week in Numbers: Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

Inflation continued to rise even as growth in automobile sales showed signs of moderating after months of robust growth following GST rate cuts.

Datametricx

RBI’s IPO Push Forces a Boardroom Test for Tata’s Trust Model

The RBI’s decision on Tata Sons’ listing tests how India’s storied conglomerate balances trusteeship, board power, minority rights and regulation.

Krishnadevan V

Court Unquote

The Tata Group saga, RERA, Ranbaxy, UPI Merchant Discount Rate and More

Your weekly rundown of significant judicial rulings and legal battles influencing policy, companies, regulation, and governance

BasisPoint Insight

Are Interest Rates in India Too Low?

Indian bond yields may be running below levels implied by growth and inflation, fuelling leverage, asset-price excesses, capital outflows and pressure on the rupee.

Sanjay Mansabdar

When Regulators Might Be Right but the Timing Might Still be Wrong

Regulatory certainty is not only about what the rule says but also about when the rule is applied and timing of policy changes

R. Gurumurthy

When Fighting Cyber Fraud Freezes the Money of Innocent Indians

India tracks cyber-fraud losses and frozen accounts, but not the legitimate money immobilised by enforcement. That missing metric matters for households, MSMEs and growth.

Sagari Gupta

Can India shape the next commodity super-cycle?

Commodity super-cycles last decades and the previous one was driven by China. Is the world ready for another round, and can India lead structural long-term shifts in global demand?

G. Chandrashekhar

ASUSE Data: Tiny Units Are Being Left Out of Credit Coverage

Despite wider bank access and MUDRA lending, India’s smallest enterprises remain starved of adequate credit, limiting productivity, scale and their ability to create jobs.

Sharmila Kantha

RBI Wants a Listing, Noel Wants the Tata Ethos — Both Are Possible

Rather than get into an ugly and long-drawn-out fight, Tata Trusts and Tata Sons should look to international examples to comply with regulatory requirements while keeping the group’s ethos anchored.

R. Sridharan

Surviving the Global Energy Squeeze: Why India Must Keep Its Guard Up

India has managed to avoid a fuel shock so far with calibrated actions. A pivot to cleaner energy going forward not only makes sense, but also reduces vulnerabilities.

Rakesh Khar

The Retailer We Don’t See

The dark store is now part of our lives but out of our sight. India’s ten-minute delivery story has now become a food-safety story at scale. Can we solve it?

Minari Shah

India's Fast Breeder Moment: A Threshold, Not a Destination

India’s PFBR has reached criticality, but delays in the fuel cycle revive Anil Kakodkar’s case for using thorium in PHWRs rather than waiting for Stage 3.

Sharmila Chavaly

Geopolitics

India-China Détente and Blumenthal’s Sanctions

India’s pushback against US sanctions over Russian oil comes as New Delhi and Beijing seek to turn a fragile thaw into a broader reset in ties. The development points to a more assertive Indian foreign policy.

Rajesh Ramachandran

Replacing Powell with Warsh Didn't Work, At Least Not Yet

R. Gurumurthy

NSE IPO Tests the Price of Market Dominance

Indra Chourasia

How Much of RBI’s Rate Cuts Actually Reached Borrowers and Savers?

Abhishek Dey

The Conference Boom Needs a Measure Beyond Footfall

Srinath Sridharan

UPI MDR: Who Benefits, and What Govt FAQ Doesn’t Answer

UPI’s MDR creates new revenue streams for banks and apps, but questions remain over governance, merchant bargaining power and fraud-victim protection

Anil Katia

Ganga Narayan Rath

India’s Trade Shift: From Protection to Global Competitiveness by 2047

India’s trade challenge is shifting from protection to competitiveness, with services, manufacturing, trade facilitation and global value chains central to its next phase

Rajeev Verma

Opinion

RBI Must Begin Rate Hike Cycle as Inflation Accelerates

India’s inflation is climbing as wholesale pressures, costly crude and surplus liquidity strengthen the case for RBI to rethink its 5.25% repo rate.

Dhananjay Sinha

Tata Sons Has a Cargill Option but RBI Has Changed the Rules

RBI has closed the deregistration route. Can the Cargill-Mosaic model help Shapoorji Pallonji unlock liquidity before or alongside a Tata Sons listing?

Chandrika Soyantar

Warsh Starts With a Hike, but Keeps the Fed’s Next Move Open

The Fed’s first rate increase since 2023 confirms Kevin Warsh’s hawkish start, but his retreat from forward guidance leaves markets to price the next move from data.

Dhananjay Sinha

RBI's Approach to Restructuring Revolving Credit and What It Means for NBFC Balance Sheets

RBI’s proposed ban on revolving credit may curb ever-greening, but without a tenor floor or transition period, it could create new ALM and MSME risks.

Babuji K

India’s Food grain Procurement Policy Deserves Review

On the one hand, farmers hesitate to grow oilseeds, millets and pulses as they are not assured of procurement. On the other, India imports huge amounts of pulses and vegetable oils. To break this cycle, the government needs to look beyond rice and wheat for procurement.

G. Chandrashekhar

How GST Data Is Helping Solve India’s MSME Credit Problem

GST is doing more than simplifying taxation: its digital trail is helping lenders assess MSMEs, widen formal credit and rethink traditional balance-sheet lending.

Rudra Sensarma

Fraudsters Do Not Need Better AI Than Us

The real fraud advantage lies in incentive, speed and adaptation. India’s digital defences must learn to see the whole fraud stack before criminals learn to defeat it.

Srinath Sridharan

Anand Venkatanarayanan

Week in Numbers: Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

Growth in automobiles and tractors slowed sharply but remained positive in August. The big question is whether growth will remain positive amid an unfavourable base effect following the GST rate cuts.

Datametricx

Video

VW-JSW’s India Wager: Cakewalk or Tough Road Ahead?

Rakesh Khar

Geopolitics

Why India Still Needs BRICS?

India’s place in BRICS is about strategic autonomy: shaping the group from within, balancing China and preserving room to work with the US, Russia and Global South.

Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain (Retd)

Micron: When Scarcity Creates Rent, and Everyone Wants a Share

Micron’s AI-driven scarcity has created extraordinary profits. But as workers, rivals and governments seek a share, the real question is how long those rents can last.

R. Gurumurthy

Why ALM, Not Just NIM, Matters for the Future of Bank Profitability

NIM is the only visible outcome of a bank’s ALM strategy. As lending rates evolve, transparent pricing and risk management will shape sustainable margins.

K. Srinivasa Rao

AI Will Kill Humanity Only if We Allow It To

Human extinction isn’t inevitable. AI isn’t a comet that can wipe out Earth in an instant. Human agency can prevail if we choose to exercise it.

R. Sridharan

Relinquishing the Wheel: Why Volkswagen’s JSW Gamble Faces a Brutal Reality Check

Volkswagen’s JSW deal offers scale, local heft and an EV route into India. But history shows that ownership changes alone rarely crack the country’s brutal auto market.

Rakesh Khar

BasisPoint Groupthink

Nine-Tailed Diplomacy: Can India and China Learn to Coexist at Last?

India and China are bound by trade, divided by suspicion and shaped by history. As Modi and Xi test a fragile reset, can coexistence beat confrontation?

Phynix

For later millennials and Generation Z, concepts of saving and debt have evolved differently from the past. Instant gratification, technology-enabled access to debt, and immediate availability of goods and services are now the driving factors instead of saving and even asset building.

Abhiman Das

Smita Roy Trivedi