I am beginning to suspect that I am approaching the Indian equity market incorrectly. For years I believed investing required some combination of valuation, earnings, interest rates, liquidity, global flows and perhaps a little common sense. 

How naïve.

The Economist has now informed me that financial astrology is a serious business in India. I had thought astrology was for marriage, children and choosing an auspicious time to buy a house. 

Apparently it also works for the Nifty.

Soon after, astrologers began advising their followers through social media posts that a crash was imminent and that investors should sell everything and remain in cash. I was tempted. But then a public-policy expert announced that India was close to returning to its 8% growth trajectory, so I hesitated.

Then another expert explained that foreign investors would return to India once the AI bubble burst in America. I relaxed. Apparently my portfolio was not falling because anything was wrong with India. It was merely waiting patiently for America to have a nervous breakdown.

Then came television. A managing editor, having observed that the market was refusing to rally despite an impressive parade of good news, discovered the existence of a foreign lobby against India. 

At last, a complete explanation.

GDP is good, inflation is manageable, reforms are happening, and Corporate India is resilient. But the market refuses to cooperate. Obviously, foreigners are responsible. This is comforting. It means there is no need to examine prices.

Then came monetary policy. The central bank, with admirable patience, explained what its policy stance means in the Indian context, presumably because the word “stance” has acquired different meanings in different parts of the world. It also spoke of a calibrated approach.

I found this particularly reassuring. Whatever happens, one can say afterwards that it was calibrated. If the market rises, it worked. If the market falls, it was calibrated. The adjective does a remarkable amount of work.

Then the Governor suggested that markets could sometimes be irrational. Perhaps the market was not listening. This was followed by the rupee breaching ₹100 to the dollar in the one-year forward market. I stared at the screen and wondered whether the market had received a copy of the policy statement. 

Apparently not.

I have therefore reached an important conclusion. The Indian market does not suffer from a shortage of explanations, but an excess of them. Everyone has a theory. The investor has losses.

So I have decided to simplify my investment strategy. I will sit in cash, not because an astrologer told me to, but because, after listening to everyone else, I have finally run out of things to believe. Perhaps that is the real meaning of a calibrated approach.

Note - This piece is not investment advice, and instead is a satirical piece.