Monetary Policy

MPC’s New Voice Speaks the Old Grammar of Caution

Indranil Bhattacharyya’s debut echoes the RBI’s old grammar of caution—clear in logic, yet padded with the rhetorical crutches it didn’t need.

BasisPoint Groupthink

October 17, 2025 at 1:19 PM IST

India’s Innovation Gap Widens: GII 2025 Highlights Urgent Need for R&D Investment

The Global Innovation Index 2025 spotlights persistent gaps in India’s innovation ecosystem that reiterate the imperative for greater incentives for businesses to engage in R&D.

Sharmila Kantha

October 16, 2025 at 7:43 AM IST

iStock.com

Riding Giants: How India May Catch the Next Big FDI Swell

Trump’s tariffs may unleash a new FDI swell, with reforms, startups and geopolitics aligning as India readies to ride the next big wave.

Michael Debabrata Patra

October 15, 2025 at 3:34 AM IST

iStock.com

India’s Growth Outlook Stays Resilient as IMF Flags Fragile Global Recovery

India leads among major economies as global momentum weakens amid tariff and trade uncertainty

BasisPoint Insight

October 14, 2025 at 3:05 PM IST

iStock.com

Opinion

Is Strategic Disinvestment the Next Frontier in Economic Reform?

Following the GST 2.0, the government should aggressively pursue strategic divestment in PSUs to strengthen its finances and enhance shareholder value.

Nilanjan Banik

October 14, 2025 at 3:11 AM IST

iStock.com

How Women Empowerment and Net Zero Will Redefine Indian Aviation by 2047

When women influence policymaking, investment often flows into sectors that improve accessibility and social equity

Hemachandra Padhan

October 13, 2025 at 5:43 AM IST

iStock.com

The Case for IMF Gold Sales

The IMF’s gold reserves are worth over $350 billion – more than Chile’s GDP. Selling just 10% of these holdings would generate enough funds to offset this year’s foreign-aid cuts.

Tim Hirschel-Burns and Marina Zucker-Marques

October 10, 2025 at 5:33 AM IST

iStock.com

Optical Illusion in Public Capex

The public investment surge this year appears impressive, but much of its strength comes from accounting adjustments and base effects rather than new capital creation

Madhavi Arora

October 9, 2025 at 6:48 AM IST

iStcoks/mgstudyo

As Growth Decouples From Employment, the Fed Faces a Trilemma

Absent an astute and judicious response, the Fed could see challenges to all three elements of its (explicit and implicit) objectives: inflation control, maximum employment, and financial stability.

Mohamed A. El-Erian

October 6, 2025 at 3:53 PM IST

Federal Reserve

Week in Numbers – Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

Not withstanding the government’s confidence, the fiscal situation appears under pressure due to income tax cuts in the Budget and GST rationalisation.

Datametricx

October 6, 2025 at 11:56 AM IST

iStock.com

India’s Growth Story Meets Its Consumption Wall

Tax breaks lift demand for now, but slowing income, weak investment, and US tariffs threaten to sap India’s growth momentum.

Shilpashree Venkatesh

October 4, 2025 at 12:54 PM IST

iStock.com

Fifteen Years After Pittsburgh, the Global Economy Is Still Out of Balance

Advanced economies evade discipline, BRICS build alternatives, and the IMF remains trapped between surveillance and sovereignty

Arvind Mayaram

October 2, 2025 at 6:08 AM IST

iStock.com

Monetary Policy

RBI’s Insulated Optimism Jars with Ground Reality

The central bank’s upbeat narrative of resilience overlooks stagnant earnings, weak credit demand, and intensifying global risks.

Dhananjay Sinha

October 1, 2025 at 11:39 AM IST

iStock.com

Monetary Policy

Is the Hunt for a Terminal Repo Rate a Distraction?

Markets may be too eager to bottom-fish for a terminal repo rate. In today’s fluid context, flexibility could matter more than fixation.

Kalyan Ram

October 1, 2025 at 9:34 AM IST

iStock.com

Monetary Policy

RBI Reopens Rate Door, December Cut Alive

RBI held repo at 5.5%, stance neutral. Malhotra kept powder dry, with inflation benign and growth risks making December a live meeting.

BasisPoint Insight

October 1, 2025 at 5:16 AM IST

Screengrab from a RBI Press Conference

Monetary Policy

RBI Must Cut Rates Now, Not Wait Until December

With inflation collapsing, growth momentum set to fade, and the rupee a shock absorber, the RBI must cut rates in October, not wait till December.

Madhavi Arora

September 30, 2025 at 5:17 AM IST

Screengrab from a RBI Press Conference

Monetary Policy

Benign Inflation, External Risks Keep Rate-Cut Debate Open, But for December

The Reserve Bank of India is expected to hold the repo rate at 5.50% on Wednesday, with inflation undershooting forecasts and US tariffs clouding growth prospects. Analysts see a dovish pause, while keeping the option of another rate cut later this year.

BasisPoint Insight

September 30, 2025 at 4:13 AM IST

Screengrab of RBI press conference

Labubu Syndrome: Anatomy of a Plush Pandemic

A pointy-eared gremlin-rabbit now rules wallets and timelines. Labubu is today’s tulip, yesterday’s Beanie Baby, and last year’s NFT—cute, scarce, and overpriced.

R. Gurumurthy

September 27, 2025 at 5:11 AM IST

Via WikiCommons

Not Just Make in India, Chips Need to be Made by India

Without owning semiconductor IP, India risks dependence. Building and backing its own chips is the real test.

TK Arun

September 24, 2025 at 6:46 AM IST

iStock.com

Monetary Policy

India’s Wage Malaise Leaves RBI Little Room to Hide

With inflation subdued and nominal growth slipping, structural reforms and monetary easing must work together. The October policy is a test of intent.

Yield Scribe

September 23, 2025 at 6:42 AM IST

iStock.com

H-1B Visa Clampdown Puts Spotlight on India’s Innovation Deficit

As the US clamps down on H-1B visas, India must look beyond brain drain debates and build R&D strength, skills, and domestic innovation to absorb its tech talent.

Sharmila Kantha

September 22, 2025 at 3:07 PM IST

iStock.com

Plaza Accord at 40: A Time Capsule of Macroeconomic Diplomacy

Forty years after the Plaza Accord tamed an overvalued dollar, can Washington still bend currencies to its will in a multipolar, fast-moving financial world?

R. Gurumurthy

September 22, 2025 at 1:44 PM IST

iStock.com

Visa Shock Nudges India’s IT Towards a Stickier Offshore Model

The steep H-1B fee for new visas is a jolt, yet it may ultimately tilt India’s tech exports toward deeper offshoring and GCC scale, with manageable macro drift.

Madhavi Arora

September 22, 2025 at 8:42 AM IST

iStock.com/Kandarp Gupta

Retail Inflation Could Briefly Touch Zero in October

GST cuts and a favourable base effect may push India’s retail inflation near zero in October, posing a fresh test for the RBI’s rate calculus.

Datametricx

September 18, 2025 at 8:11 AM IST

IStock/RealPictures

Why Indian Banks Need Risk-Based Capital Charge Mechanism

The three largest banks worldwide, excluding China, consume significantly lower levels of capital than India’s three largest banks.*

Rahul Ghosh

September 18, 2025 at 6:12 AM IST

Fed Risks Losing Independence Under Powell’s Double Error

Powell’s legacy may be defined by delays on both inflation and growth, leaving the Fed exposed to political pressures and erosion of autonomy.

Yield Scribe

September 17, 2025 at 4:29 AM IST

White House

India’s Households Signal Fragile Revival, Rural Tilt

Disinflation and policy support have created space, but without robust income growth the festive-season boost may fall short.

Dhananjay Sinha

September 16, 2025 at 7:53 AM IST

iStock.com

BRICS - Building Brick by Brick

BRICS is building financial muscle with $5.1 trillion reserves and 90% local trade settlements, yet tariffs and weak coordination test its resolve.

Babuji K

September 16, 2025 at 5:52 AM IST

Week in Numbers – Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

With retail inflation trending below projections, GST rate cuts, potential Fed easing, and US tariffs weighing on India’s growth, the window for an RBI rate cut in December may be opening.

Datametricx

September 15, 2025 at 4:27 AM IST

iStock.com

Trump’s Queen of Hearts Tariffs

Trump’s tariffs may sting, but India channels Ali’s art—floating lightly and stinging sharply when the timing is right.

Michael Debabrata Patra

September 15, 2025 at 3:21 AM IST

Via WikiCommons

Can India's Consumption Engine Outrun Trump's Trade Shock?

India is betting that tax relief will keep consumption strong even as tariffs squeeze exports. But policy follow-through may be the key.

Alok Kumar Mishra

Iti Vyas

September 11, 2025 at 8:39 AM IST

IStock/RealPictures

Basis Life

Condescension Toward Gen Z is an Unmanaged Risk — Ask Nepal

Gen Z toppled a government with a hashtag. The real risk for India’s leaders and investors is still mispricing their power.

Kirti Tarang Pande

September 10, 2025 at 9:06 AM IST

Via WikiCommons

Fitch Lifts India’s 2025–26 Growth Forecast to 6.9% on Resilient Domestic Demand

Fitch has raised India’s 2025–26 growth forecast to 6.9%, citing resilient domestic demand and strong services momentum. While trade tensions with the United States pose risks, household spending and policy support are expected to anchor growth.

BasisPoint Insight

September 10, 2025 at 6:11 AM IST

iStcoks/mgstudyo

Trying to be a “Good Economist” in the Times of US Tariffs

Can tariffs be judged only by their visible impact? Bastiat’s wisdom suggests otherwise: true economists look beyond first effects to hidden costs, shifts, and long-term risks.

Vijay Chauhan

September 8, 2025 at 7:20 AM IST

White House/Via WikiCommons

GST Overhaul Seen Adding 0.7-0.8% to GDP this Year

BasisPoint Insight

September 5, 2025 at 11:07 AM IST

GST 2.0 Shifts India’s Growth Strategy from Highways to Homes

India’s tax overhaul tilts growth strategy back towards households, but the bet on demand revival must not crowd out investment.

Madhavi Arora

September 4, 2025 at 3:13 PM IST

iStocks/triloks

India Hopes GST Rate Cuts Might Have Just Triggered Its Biggest Consumer Boom

India's GST overhaul delivers massive stimulus at ₹480 billion cost, hoping to bolster consumption.

Krishnadevan V

September 4, 2025 at 2:03 PM IST

iStock.com

GST Reset Seeks Equity and Growth Amid Fiscal Knot

India’s GST overhaul shifts the burden from households to luxury and sin goods, but revenue losses raise questions over fiscal sustainability.

Dhananjay Sinha

September 4, 2025 at 3:26 AM IST

Finance Ministry

Eggheads, Not Cheerleaders

When institutional heads slip into boosterism, they stop being referees and start misleading the very investors they are meant to protect.

BasisPoint Groupthink

September 2, 2025 at 2:21 PM IST

iStock.com

Week in Numbers – Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

India’s GDP growth in April-June surprises sharply on the upside, even as downside risks emerge from Trump’s punitive tariffs on India.

Datametricx

September 1, 2025 at 9:11 AM IST

iStcoks/mgstudyo

Nominal Weakness Tells the Real Story for RBI

Headline GDP growth flatters to deceive. Weak nominal expansion and tariff shocks mean the RBI must maintain an easing bias.

BasisPoint Insight

September 1, 2025 at 7:12 AM IST

iStock.com

The Global Economy Shrugged

Global growth has defied Trump’s sweeping tariffs, with households, firms, and markets adapting swiftly, leaving economists puzzled by the resilience.

Michael Debabrata Patra

September 1, 2025 at 5:35 AM IST

White House/Via WikiCommons

India’s Economy Expands 7.8% in June Quarter, Highest in Five Quarters

India’s GDP grew 7.8% in April–June, the fastest in five quarters and above forecasts of 6.7–6.9%. Growth was led by services and investment, while mining and utilities remained weak.

BasisPoint Insight

August 29, 2025 at 12:07 PM IST

iStock.com

The Morning Edge

US GDP Growth Revised Higher to 3.3% in Q2; Fed Rate Cut Debate Intensifies

Here’s your quick read to start the day: a chatty, no-fuss look at overnight moves, the big story, what’s on the docket, and the tickers you need to watch.

Richard Fargose

August 29, 2025 at 1:20 AM IST

US Federal Reserve

India's Climate-Finance Gap Is Smaller Than It Seems

Although much of the climate debate, both globally and in India, has focused on the costs of the energy transition, study shows that India’s climate-finance needs are relatively modest.

Rakesh Mohan and Janak Raj

August 28, 2025 at 4:28 PM IST

iStock.com/ipopba

India’s April–June Real GDP Growth Seen 6.7–6.9%, But Nominal may Drag

Strong government spending and services buoyed activity, but weak industry and lower nominal growth pose risks ahead.

BasisPoint Insight

August 28, 2025 at 12:44 PM IST

iStcoks/mgstudyo

Which Sectors Will US Tariffs Hit Most and How to Brace for it

GTRI examines the scale and distribution of the impact across sectors, the potential GDP implications, and the strategic responses required.

Ajay Srivastava

August 26, 2025 at 4:17 PM IST

iStock.com/MAGNIFIER

Fitch Affirms India Rating Days After S&P Upgrade, Points to Tariff Risks

BasisPoint Insight

August 25, 2025 at 8:56 AM IST

Tariffs, Stimulus and Stalled Earnings Weigh on India’s Markets

India’s markets face a rough ride as tariff wars collide with weak demand, policy trade-offs and fragile corporate performance.

Dhananjay Sinha

August 25, 2025 at 3:31 AM IST

Amey Bane/iStockphoto.com

Does Climate Change Matter for Monetary Policy Decisions?

Climate shocks are reshaping inflation, growth, and financial stability. For the RBI, integrating climate risks into monetary policy is no longer optional.

Hemachandra Padhan

August 24, 2025 at 8:44 AM IST

iStock.com

GST Reboot Risks Fiscal Strain More Than it Promises Growth

India’s proposed GST rejig is being billed as a Diwali bonanza. The risk is that it leaves state finances stretched without delivering a real consumption boost.

N. Srinivasa Rao

August 23, 2025 at 6:59 AM IST

iStock.com

Getting credit flow where it matters most

India’s lenders look flush and NBFCs are growing, yet without private capital stepping up, the credit engine risks running idle.

Sujit Kumar

August 22, 2025 at 7:06 AM IST

iStock.com

Can India escape the middle-income trap?

India’s growth story is robust, yet escaping the middle-income trap will hinge on reforms, productivity gains and jobs for a swelling workforce.

Barendra Kumar Bhoi

Hemachandra Padhan

August 22, 2025 at 5:44 AM IST

iStock.com/Balaji Srinivasan

A Stock-Market Crash Foretold

Why are US stocks soaring even as debt balloons, tariffs bite, and foreign investors lose faith in America’s fiscal credibility? Is Wall Street in denial, or bracing for the next big crash?

Desmond Lachman

August 21, 2025 at 12:58 PM IST

Damien VERRIER/iStock.com

RBI’s October Call Hinges on Transmission, Tariffs and a Swing Voter

August MPC minutes show caution but not closure. With Ranjan wavering, the RBI keeps cuts alive while waiting on data, tariffs, and transmission.

BasisPoint Groupthink

August 20, 2025 at 2:42 PM IST

Poonam Gupta

Growth Without Jobs, Wealth Without Equity: India Needs a Bold Course Correction

India’s economy is expanding, yet jobs are scarce and inequality deepens. Without a bold reset, growth risks leaving too many behind.

Arvind Mayaram

August 20, 2025 at 4:26 AM IST

iStock.com

Adam Smith at 250

Nearly 250 years after Smith introduced the concept of specialisation, it remains a key feature of our economies. But it has also changed profoundly.

Michael Spence

August 18, 2025 at 4:54 PM IST

Via WikiCommons

GST Reset Faces Revenue and State Test

The Centre’s bold push for a two-slab GST by Diwali promises relief for households and MSMEs, but consensus with states and revenue arithmetic will be the real test.

Najib Shah

August 17, 2025 at 6:17 AM IST

iStock.com

GST Rate Cuts Can Lift Demand, But Fiscal Balancing Will Be Key

Cutting GST rates on essentials could spark a broader demand revival than past schemes, but fiscal space and state consensus will decide success.

Dhananjay Sinha

August 15, 2025 at 8:08 AM IST

istock.com/natbits

India Paid a Growth Price to Win a Ratings Prize

India’s fiscal discipline won a ratings upgrade and lowered capital costs. Now it must use that space to shield growth from global headwinds.

Kalyan Ram

August 14, 2025 at 3:20 PM IST

Finance Ministry

Govt’s Fiscal Discipline Pays Off as S&P Upgrades India’s Rating

Rating agency says Trump’s tariffs pose limited risk given India’s consumption-driven growth; reduced Russian crude imports unlikely to impact fiscal health.

BasisPoint Insight

August 14, 2025 at 10:09 AM IST

iStcoks/mgstudyo

India’s Banks Need a New Business Model Before Liquidity Risks Bite Harder

Deposit growth is slowing, liquidity risks are rising, and RBI rules are shifting. India’s banks must rewire their business models before the next shock.

K. Srinivasa Rao

August 14, 2025 at 7:30 AM IST

iStock.com/lakshmiprasad S

When a Rate Cut Feels Like a Hike and the Yield Curve Loses its Public Good Role

A 50-bps June cut has turned into a de facto hike as yields climb, eroding monetary transmission and adding to India’s fiscal costs.

Yield Scribe

August 11, 2025 at 2:11 AM IST

iStock.com

RBI Pauses, Rightly, But October May Cut Through Uncertainty

RBI holds repo with a neutral stance, but October policy could pivot if growth slows or tariffs bite.

N. Srinivasa Rao

August 7, 2025 at 12:39 PM IST

India’s 1991 Moment, Phase Two: Trade Turbulence a Wake-Up Call

Trump’s tariff shock is no 1991 crisis, but it could be the trigger for deeper reforms in labour, land, and governance that India can no longer defer.

Kalyan Ram

August 7, 2025 at 9:36 AM IST

Istock.com

Interview

PM Adviser Sanyal Bats for Process Reforms, Plays Down Trump’s Jibes

Sanjeev Sanyal says India’s growth is intact, urges process reforms, and calls TCS layoffs part of healthy tech churn.

Krishnadevan V

August 7, 2025 at 7:20 AM IST

Monetary Policy

RBI’s Growth Hopes Mask Limits of Policy Easing

The RBI’s optimism on growth belies structural weaknesses and hints that the impact of front-loaded rate cuts may already be waning.

Dhananjay Sinha

August 6, 2025 at 2:14 PM IST

Poonam Gupta

Monetary Policy

RBI’s Inflation Vigil Misses Trade Storm Clouds

The central bank’s hawkish turn on core inflation ignores looming growth risks from Trump tariffs and slowing domestic demand.

BasisPoint Groupthink

August 6, 2025 at 7:39 AM IST

Central Banking

Why History Keeps Rhyming: The Return of Light-Touch Regulation

Almost two decades after the 2008 crisis, calls to ease financial regulation grow louder, risking return to the same policy mistakes that once shook the global system.

Rabi N. Mishra

August 5, 2025 at 9:04 AM IST

erhui1979/Istock.com

Monetary Policy

RBI Unlikely to Cut Repo Rate as Focus Turns to Credit Transmission

With inflation cooling and liquidity ample, RBI is set to hold rates and wait for credit transmission before fresh policy moves.

K. Srinivasa Rao

August 4, 2025 at 3:44 AM IST

Exorbitant Privilege: Why the Dollar Still Reigns Despite Headwinds

The US dollar faces political and policy headwinds, but no true rival threatens its dominance. At least, not yet.

Michael Debabrata Patra

August 1, 2025 at 6:17 AM IST

baona/iStock.com

Goods Tariffs are Manageable, But Services are India’s Real Risk

Trump’s goods tariffs will sting, but India’s real vulnerability lies in services – the sector that powers jobs, consumption and growth.

Chokkalingam G

August 1, 2025 at 4:22 AM IST

iStock.com/MAGNIFIER

India Must Turn Trump’s Tariff Blow into a Push for Manufacturing Reform

Trump’s new tariffs sting India’s exports, but the bigger fix lies at home in boosting manufacturing competitiveness and easing structural bottlenecks.

Nilanjan Banik

July 31, 2025 at 8:16 AM IST

iStock.com

FOMC Holds Rates Steady in Historic Split Amid Pressure from Trump

BasisPoint Insight

July 31, 2025 at 2:11 AM IST

Federal Reserve

Foreign Money Cold on India’s Insurance Gamble

Government plans to sell stakes in state insurers face tepid global interest, with high taxes, fraud and mistrust clouding a $280 billion market.

Alpana Killawala

July 28, 2025 at 11:44 AM IST

IRDAI

India’s Chemical Industry Must Stop Settling for Low-Hanging Fruit

India’s $220 billion chemicals needs to aim higher, toward global value chains, innovation, and skilled jobs.

Ishtiyaque Ahmed

July 21, 2025 at 2:45 AM IST

Istock.com

India’s Recovery Plan Is Missing Its Fiscal Half

While the RBI has acted to support growth, the Finance Ministry’s virtual silence since the Budget leaves policy looking oddly one-handed.

Dhananjay Sinha

Kalyan Ram

July 20, 2025 at 6:52 AM IST

Demystifying China’s Manufacturing Success

China’s 1979 joint venture policy spurred tech upgrades, enabling advanced manufacturing and robust supply chains that now underpin its industrial dominance.

Zhang Jun

July 17, 2025 at 11:29 AM IST

iStok.com/LewisTsePuiLung

Tariffs and Earnings Slowdown Threaten India’s Market Rally

Relief rally is losing steam as Trump tariffs, slowing profits, and weak policy space cast a shadow over India’s market valuations.

Dhananjay Sinha

July 15, 2025 at 2:42 AM IST

iStock.com/ sreeyashlohiya

Fiscal Puritanism Is India’s Bet On Sovereign Strength

India’s quiet fiscal restraint is more than prudence. It is a strategic choice to secure cheaper capital, improve ratings, and achieve long-term growth.

BasisPoint Groupthink

July 11, 2025 at 4:35 AM IST

RBI

Big Deficits, Bigger Delusions: Tax Cuts, Tanks, And The Vanishing Monetary Theory Mirage

As the West runs record deficits without a guiding theory, fiscal rules are becoming optional. Is this the era of spending without meaning?

R. Gurumurthy

July 8, 2025 at 4:02 AM IST

White House/Via WikiCommons

Monetary Transmission Is Both Alive And Dead Like Schrödinger’s Cat

Liquidity is plentiful, rates are low, yet credit growth is muted. Monetary transmission in India remains a paradox that defies easy solutions.

Yield Scribe

July 7, 2025 at 5:13 AM IST

iStock.com

Trump Has Wrecked The US Economy

By cracking down on dissent and deploying the US military domestically, Trump is following the autocrat’s playbook. He must be stopped before the damage becomes irreversible.

Laura Tyson and Lenny Mendonca

July 4, 2025 at 4:24 AM IST

Gage Skidmore/CC

India Faces Stronger External Headwinds As Global Risks Intensify

As the world economy cools and risks multiply, India’s growth story depends on reviving investment, supporting credit, and building resilience.

BasisPoint Insight

July 3, 2025 at 12:19 PM IST

Pavel Muravev/iStock.com

Digest

The Morning Edge: US, China Strike Rare Earths Deal as Economic Growth Falters Under Tariff Strain

A newsletter designed to prepare you for the day, offering a concise summary of overnight developments and key events ahead that could influence your workday.

Richard Fargose

June 27, 2025 at 1:27 AM IST

Interview

Tata Or Batata? Nilesh Shah Lays Out India’s Market Mindmap

From HFT to FDI, inflation myths to rupee truth, Nilesh Shah maps India’s market future—in metaphors only he can mint.

BasisPoint Insight

June 26, 2025 at 4:29 AM IST

AI Generated

RBI’s Financial Conditions Index Deserves Market Attention

The central bank’s new daily FCI gives a sharper read of monetary conditions and may soon shape policy, signalling more than repo rates alone.

BasisPoint Insight

June 26, 2025 at 2:07 AM IST

Anurag Vijay/CC

Zen to Zeal: Japan Deals With The World's Most Polite Fiscal Emergency

How the land of negative rates, disappearing buyers, and cheerful handouts is quietly rewriting the rules of fiscal and sovereign debt management.

R. Gurumurthy

June 25, 2025 at 8:38 AM IST

iStocks/tawatchaiprakobkit

Is India’s Demographic Dividend Turning Into A Liability?

India’s demographic edge could become an economic burden without urgent policy coherence, private sector trust, and focus on real job creation.

Sanjay Mansabdar

June 21, 2025 at 5:39 AM IST

Mubarakansari/Via Wikicommons

MPC Minutes Reveal Wobbly Logic Behind the Stance Shift

The June MPC minutes show a committee leaning hard into caution, but its reasoning for abandoning the accommodative stance reveals some puzzling dissonance.

BasisPoint Groupthink

June 21, 2025 at 4:23 AM IST

Poonam Gupta

Israel-Iran Conflict

India And The Gulf Crisis: Navigating Rising Risks

As Iran-Israel tensions rise, India braces for oil shocks. A $10 crude spike may widen the CAD by $15 billion.

Nilanjan Banik

June 19, 2025 at 11:40 AM IST

Pavel Muravev/iStock.com

Fed Holds Rates, Flags Caution on Tariff-Led Inflation

BasisPoint Insight

June 19, 2025 at 1:59 AM IST

Why The Current Demand Recovery Rings Hollow

Rural wage gains and urban spending suggest recovery, but weak incomes, falling agri prices, and policy drag limit real momentum.

Dhananjay Sinha

June 18, 2025 at 6:24 AM IST

iStock.com/Debjit Chakraborty

Is India’s Current Monetary Policy Easing Cycle Over?

The MPC reverted to a neutral monetary policy stance in June, but a high real policy rate suggests that further easing is warranted to support growth amid subdued inflation and negative output gaps.

Barendra Kumar Bhoi

June 14, 2025 at 12:43 PM IST

Poonam Gupta

Lower Fuel Prices Matter More Than Rate Cuts In Boosting Vehicle Sales

BasisPoint Insight

June 13, 2025 at 8:08 AM IST

The Monsoon’s Early Promise Is Not Yet A Policy Comfort

Monsoon’s early onset lifted hopes for growth and inflation, but its pause may call for policy caution as rainfall deficits widen.

BasisPoint Groupthink

June 10, 2025 at 9:43 AM IST

iStock.com

A Vote Apart, Why Monetary Policy Needs Dissent

Dissent in the RBI’s rate-setting committee is not defiance. It is foresight. As policy turns bold, a lone voice may be asking the right questions.

Sujit Kumar and Rajendra Paramanik*

June 9, 2025 at 12:33 PM IST

iStock.com

RBI’s Abrupt Policy Shift Risks Undermining Its Own Credibility

Markets do not fear rate cuts or hikes. They fear a central bank that shifts stance and floods the system with liquidity before the economy is ready.

Kalyan Ram

June 6, 2025 at 3:09 PM IST

Screengrab from RBI Press Conference

Monetary Policy

RBI Frontloads Hyper Accommodation

The RBI’s frontloaded stimulus lifts markets, but its ability to revive growth is constrained by weak income, tepid investment, and global drag.

Dhananjay Sinha

June 6, 2025 at 10:38 AM IST

iStock.com

Monetary Policy

RBI Surprises With 50 bps Rate Cut, But Signals Long Pause Ahead

The Monetary Policy Committee’s decision to shift its stance to neutral from accommodative signals that the door to further cuts remains open but the threshold to cut again has risen.

BasisPoint Insight

June 6, 2025 at 4:46 AM IST

Interview

India’s Fiscal Fault Lines Risk Derailing Viksit Bharat Vision: Subbarao

The former RBI Governor warns that weak state finances, freebies, and Centre–state rifts could upend India’s journey to becoming a truly developed economy.

Kalyan Ram

June 6, 2025 at 3:30 AM IST

Interview

Dollar Needs A Hedge As Global Reset Underway, Says ICICI Bank's Prasanna

The dollar is no longer sacrosanct, says B. Prasanna, who also sees 50 bps rate cuts, stable rupee, and mid-cap opportunities ahead.

BasisPoint Insight

June 5, 2025 at 8:26 AM IST

GST Surge Doesn’t Mean India’s Growth Is Real

Robust tax collections are masking a more fragile consumption economy. The strength in GST collections reflects pro-cyclical fiscal tightening and an elevated tax burden on households, rather than productivity gains or higher income.

Dhananjay Sinha

June 3, 2025 at 7:46 AM IST

Monetary Policy In A Schrödinger’s Economy

RBI must tread carefully in a Schrödinger’s economy, where outcomes stay indeterminate until observed, demanding reactive policy moves.

Vivek Kumar

June 2, 2025 at 6:41 AM IST

GDP — What’s In, What’s Not, And A Defence Of Its Quiet Builders

GDP is often misunderstood, misused, and maligned. But its utility depends as much on how we understand and read it as on our appreciation of it as a mirror, not a mirage.

Michael Debabrata Patra

June 2, 2025 at 4:31 AM IST

iStock.com

India’s GDP Numbers Look Good—Too Good To Trust

The January–March data is stronger than expected, but deeper fault lines remain in consumption, private investment, and household incomes.

Dhananjay Sinha

June 1, 2025 at 12:58 PM IST

McKay Savage/Via Wikicommons

India’s Growth Pops, But RBI Still Has Reasons To Cut Rates

A 7.4% GDP print in January–March 2025 flatters India’s outlook. With consumption weak and real rates high, RBI can still ease to lift growth.

Yield Scribe

June 1, 2025 at 5:59 AM IST

Interview

Rangarajan Says India Must Not Dilute 3% Fiscal Deficit Cap

Rangarajan warns against replacing India’s 3% deficit anchor, saying it risks crowding out private investment and raising interest rates.

Kalyan Ram

May 30, 2025 at 4:40 PM IST

India’s January–March GDP Growth Beats Estimates At 7.4%, 2024-25 At 6.5%

BasisPoint Insight

May 30, 2025 at 11:37 AM IST

India’s Growth Anchored In Reform, Stability Amid Global Shocks: RBI Report

BasisPoint Insight

May 29, 2025 at 7:06 AM IST

India’s Economic Rise And The Need To Make It Human-Centric

Sustained prosperity will depend on investing in people, institutions, and collaborative governance.

Srinath Sridharan

May 28, 2025 at 9:40 AM IST

istock.com/natbits

Offscript Weekly: Skies That Roar, Stories That Soothe

A week of wild weather, economic milestones, global rollercoasters, AI avatars in boardrooms – anchored by a quiet and bright Heart Lamp from Karnataka.

Ranjana Chauhan

May 27, 2025 at 1:13 PM IST

iStock.com

Buffer Reboot

Higher RBI Dividend Payout Now Comes With Stricter Framework

RBI’s recalibration of its risk buffer signals a shift from rigid rules to responsive resilience—putting prudence ahead of payouts in a world of rising uncertainty.

Dhananjay Sinha

May 25, 2025 at 4:11 AM IST

Apple, Trump, And The Real Cost Of Making Things

Trump’s push to bring Apple’s factories home challenges India’s China+1 dream. But productivity, not wages, may be the real battleground.

Abheek Barua

May 21, 2025 at 6:22 AM IST

iStock.com

India Better Positioned Amid Global Trade Turbulence, Says Moody’s

India’s strong domestic economy and services sector help cushion it against US tariffs and global trade shocks.

BasisPoint Insight

May 21, 2025 at 4:01 AM IST

iStock.com/MAGNIFIER

RBI Need Not Rush To 5% As Liquidity Does The Heavy-Lifting

The RBI has uncoupled its stance from liquidity. That may make aggressive rate cuts less likely, even if monetary conditions stay easy.

BasisPoint Groupthink

May 19, 2025 at 5:56 AM IST

RBI Tweets

Soft CPI Anchors Rate Cut Hopes, Narrows Path To 5.00% Terminal

April’s disinflation surprise resets the debate around where the rate cycle ends and how soon it gets there

Richard Fargose

May 14, 2025 at 2:03 PM IST

Anurag Vijay/CC

Uncertainty, Not Inventory, Is Hurting The American Economy

There is more than just excessive imports behind the American economy's contraction in January–March. And it may be a portent.

TK Arun

May 6, 2025 at 7:40 AM IST

Becker1999/ Via Wiki Commons

SBI Research Pushes For 50-BPS Jumbo Rate Cuts To Boost Transmission

The benign inflation outlook, coupled with a moderate growth forecast, has created what the bank describes as a “Goldilocks period” for rate cuts.

BasisPoint Insight

May 5, 2025 at 12:29 PM IST

Anurag Vijay/CC

Private Capex Is Faltering, And Global Fragmentation May Be To Blame

India’s first forward-looking capex survey shows a sharp fall in 2025-26 plans, exposing demand worries and rising global trade uncertainty.

Dhananjay Sinha

April 30, 2025 at 5:26 AM IST

iStock.com/Technical Bhadresh

Is the RBI’s Liquidity Blitz a Signal of Deeper Economic Strain?

An outsized bond purchase plan and aggressive liquidity support hint at a more serious undercurrent: faltering money supply, weak credit momentum, and growth worries.

BasisPoint Groupthink

April 28, 2025 at 4:15 PM IST

Collaborative Federalism: Moving Beyond Symbolism

India’s vision of federalism is leaving citizens to navigate fractured education systems, crumbling cities, and neglected public services. True collaborative federalism must prioritise tangible outcomes and not symbolic gestures or political leverage.

Srinath Sridharan

April 28, 2025 at 3:57 AM IST

Vyacheslav Argenberg/ Via WikiCommons

Hedging the New Uncertainty

In today’s world, investors cannot rely only on level-one hedges. They need to consider what level of protection they need for level-two and level-three scenarios.

Dambisa Moyo

April 24, 2025 at 5:44 PM IST

iStock.com

RBI Can Undertake Unprecedented Interest Rate Easing – If It Wants To

With the convenient definitions of real rate and potential growth, the RBI can justify deeper rate cuts than anyone currently expects.

Basis Pundit

April 21, 2025 at 8:51 AM IST

Moody’s Analytics Slashes India’s 2025 Growth Outlook by 30 Bps Amid External Headwinds

BasisPoint Insight

April 10, 2025 at 1:13 PM IST

RBI’s Quiet Confidence Lets Markets Set The Rupee’s Course

As global currencies wobble under tariff pressures, the RBI is betting on India’s fundamentals to anchor the rupee—and avoiding panic interventions.

Richard Fargose

April 9, 2025 at 4:35 PM IST

Monetary Policy

RBI’s Optimism Hinges On Questionable Insular Assumptions

Despite warning of trade risks, the central bank proceeds as if India’s economy exists in a vacuum

Dhananjay Sinha

April 9, 2025 at 1:54 PM IST

Monetary Policy

RBI’s Optimism On Growth Belies Tariff Undercurrent

The central bank’s inflation optimism is justified, but its 2025–26 growth forecast feels increasingly out of touch with trade war disruptions.

BasisPoint Groupthink

April 9, 2025 at 9:28 AM IST

Monetary Policy

RBI Goes All In On Dovishness, Outdoes Most Dovish Of Pundits

The central bank has done everything the market hoped—and more. What matters now is how far ahead the market decides to run.

BasisPoint Groupthink

April 9, 2025 at 5:46 AM IST

RBI

Monetary Policy

RBI Steps Up Easing Cycle with Another 25 bps Rate Cut, Stance Accommodative

RBI's move reflects the MPC’s view that inflation risks have moderated and that there is a need to address domestic growth amid global uncertainties.

BasisPoint Insight

April 9, 2025 at 5:04 AM IST

RBI Tweets

Monetary Policy

RBI Seen Cutting Repo Rate By 25 Bps As Easing Cycle Gains Momentum

Most analysts anticipate a cumulative repo rate reduction of at least 75 bps by March 2026 if inflation remains within the target band.

BasisPoint Insight

April 7, 2025 at 11:45 AM IST

RBI

Monetary Policy

RBI Should Be The Front Soldier After Trump Trade Shock

A seismic tariff shock from the US on April 9 could hijack India’s economic prospects. While this requires a strategic government intervention for risk mitigation, the RBI must be the front soldier to safeguard growth.

Vivek Kumar

April 6, 2025 at 7:59 AM IST

India’s GDP and inflation set to fall after US tariff shock

BasisPoint Insight

April 4, 2025 at 3:39 AM IST

Gravity-defying GDP flouting the gravitating curve spread?

There is something amiss here; either the GDP numbers are out of whack, or the yield curve has lost its predictive mojo!

Dhananjay Sinha

April 1, 2025 at 5:21 AM IST

India’s Consumption Comeback Story Is Built On Shaky Ground

Official GDP data suggests a surge in household demand. A closer look at wage trends and sentiment reveals that the rebound may be mostly a mirage.

Dhananjay Sinha

March 28, 2025 at 6:16 AM IST

Tentative Cut Likely Again; RBI May Prioritise Liquidity, Transmission

The RBI may cut rates again in April, but the focus will be on liquidity infusion and stronger pressure on banks to transmit cumulative cuts effectively.

BasisPoint Groupthink

March 20, 2025 at 6:59 AM IST

RBI

Signs Of A US Recession

A recession implies two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, which means that the US could enter one in the second or third quarter of 2025.

Dambisa Moyo

March 14, 2025 at 4:16 PM IST

Gage Skidmore/CC

India’s Policy Shift, Capex Push Power Growth Recovery, Says Morgan Stanley

India’s recovery gains traction as capex surges, monetary easing kicks in, and services exports stay strong. Policy shifts will shape the next phase.

BasisPoint Insight

March 14, 2025 at 5:25 AM IST

iStock.com/lakshmiprasad S

Explainer

Why Is The Indian Finance Minister Hinting At A GST Reduction Now?

India's GST rethink comes amid economic headwinds. Will a tax cut be enough to counter slowing demand and US tariffs? A deeper look.

Alok Kumar Mishra

March 11, 2025 at 6:13 AM IST

Opinion

MPC Must Abandon Neutrality To Reignite Growth Before It’s Too Late

With weakening growth and easing inflation, the RBI must abandon caution to spur investments and the economy.

BasisPoint Groupthink

March 6, 2025 at 6:17 AM IST

RBI Tweets

Behind India’s Third Quarter GDP Glow Lies A Widening Data Credibility Gap

India’s GDP revisions bank on robust consumption, but weak corporate sales, output & imports expose a widening data disconnect.

Dhananjay Sinha

March 3, 2025 at 7:26 AM IST

iStock.com/:Radiokukka

Interview

India’s Growth Story Is Missing Its Most Crucial Engine, Says Pronab Sen

India’s ambition to become a high-income economy by 2047 will require a decisive shift in economic policy to unlock sustained, accelerated GDP growth of 8% or more.

Rajesh Mahapatra

March 2, 2025 at 12:32 PM IST

India’s Missing Demand Engine Needs Urgent Policy Action To Revive Growth

India’s private consumption remains weak despite growth; targeted fiscal support and income boosts needed to revive household demand.

Alok Kumar Mishra

March 1, 2025 at 4:11 AM IST

iStock/PRABHASROY

India’s 2024-25 Growth Seen At 6.5% After Revised 9.2% In 2023-24

Public spending drives India’s 6.2% GDP growth in third quarter; private capex, consumption remain weak.

BasisPoint Insight

February 28, 2025 at 1:57 PM IST

India GDP Data To Show Rebound, But Can Growth Sustain?

GDP growth is expected to have bounced back to 6.3%, but a reliance on government spending raises questions about the recovery’s durability.

BasisPoint Insight

February 27, 2025 at 9:56 AM IST

Is RBI Navigating With An Outmoded Compass?

Persistent inflation, structural economic shifts, and misaligned policy rates suggest the RBI’s outdated framework risks deepening India’s imbalances.

Dhananjay Sinha

February 20, 2025 at 6:10 AM IST

The Bureau

Oil Surge Rekindles Inflation Worries; Investors Await Trump–Xi Diplomacy

India’s Processed Potato Exports Surge as Asia’s Snack Demand Booms

When Infrastructure Kills the Vibe, Ambition Turns Up the Volume

Green crackers, Sahara-SEBI, Digital Arrest, Asian Paints, and more

CoinDCX Raises Again — Is India’s Crypto Winter Finally Thawing?

India’s Exports to US Fall 20% in September as Trump Tariffs Bite: GTRI

MPC Keeps Powder Dry as Rate-Cut Debate Heats Up

Mission Pulses: Does It Pack The Protein Punch India Needs?

Jallikattu: Tamil Nadu’s Ancient Bull-Taming Tradition