India may meet its 4.4% deficit goal this year, but only through one-off gains and statistical cushions that leave its fiscal base exposed.
BasisPoint Groupthink
Finance Ministry
Growth is strong, inflation steady, markets booming. So were the doom forecasts off the mark—or did US policy quietly adjust just enough to dodge a slowdown?
Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg
White House/Via WikiCommons
AI’s boom mirrors the dot-com era; but this time the costs are higher, the hardware depreciates faster, and the risks sit deep in the financial system. Will the payoff come in time?
Carl Benedikt Frey
akinbostanci/Istock.com
India’s strong hiring wave masks a deeper worry: output per worker has stalled, wages are barely rising, and most new jobs sit in low-value sectors. Growth is expanding, but without the productivity lift needed for true transformation.
Rajesh Kumar*
iStock.com
Is Ankara’s current posture towards New Delhi driven by ideological projection or geopolitical calculation—or both?
Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain (Retd)
Via WikiCommons
Foreign universities entering India can transform the country from a major exporter of students into a competitive global education hub.
Sharmila Kantha
Under Trump’s watch, his MAGA movement has served as a conduit for some of the ugliest forces in politics to make a run at the mainstream.
Michael R. Strain
White House
National unemployment was unchanged at 5.2% in October, LFPR barely moved, and urban women and young workers continued to face the toughest tests in the job market.
Akshi Chawla
Globally, India’s exports declined by 11.8%. Overall, India saw growth in just five markets and declines in fifteen, reflecting a patchy and fragile export landscape.
Ajay Srivastava
The elections weren't lost because Congress underperformed—that was expected. They were lost because the RJD failed spectacularly to perform its core function: winning seats.
Amitabh Tiwari
Repeated delays in releasing Kharif production estimates are stoking needless speculation, weakening market confidence and undermining policy credibility.
G. Chandrashekhar
When a late-night meal reminds you that progress comes less from perfect plans and more from showing up with warmth and making room for others.
Phynix
Trump administration officials have justified this reversal by casting Pakistan as a valuable partner in efforts to contain Iran and rein in terrorist groups that could threaten US interests in the region.
Brahma Chellaney
White House Via WikiCommons
Bihar’s defeat has shattered the MGB and shaken the INDIA bloc, exposing leadership rifts, alliance cracks and deep uncertainty about the opposition’s future.
Given the falling costs of renewable energy, the G20’s EMEs will need only $121 billion in climate finance for power generation – the amount over and above the investment required in a business-as-usual scenario – between 2024 and 2030.
Rakesh Mohan and Janak Raj
Retail inflation fell to a record low in October, but a December rate cut still hangs in the balance.
Datametricx
As corporate India scales up renewables at unprecedented speed, the country is positioning itself for a new era of sustainable global trade.
Nilanjan Banik
RIL website
India’s gem and jewellery industry faces US tariff setbacks but finds new hope through the UK trade deal, expanding markets, and domestic growth.
Michael Debabrata Patra
The true test of progress is whether prosperity reaches not just balance sheets but everyday life of everyone.
Srinath Sridharan
Kirti Tarang Pande
iStcoks/mgstudyo
Michael Patra is an economist and former RBI Deputy Governor.
Arun is a seasoned writer on economic and policy matters.
Abheek is an Independent Economist and the Former Chief Economist at HDFC Bank.
Ajay Srivastava is the founder of the Global Trade Research Initiative.
Vijay, trade expert & ex-IRS officer, works with Deloitte India and Ashoka University’s ICPP.
Dhananjay, a D-School alum, is CEO and Co-Head of Equities at Systematix Group.
Kriti is a psychologist specialising in mental health, org behaviour, and brand strategy
Srinath is an author, corporate advisor, and independent director on corporate boards.
Ex-civil servant Chavaly held key Railways, Finance roles; specialises in infra & PPPs
Nilanjan Banik, Professor at Mahindra University, specialises in trade and development economics.
Sachin was till recently an MD with Standard Chartered Bank.
Rajesh Mahapatra is the former Editor of The Press Trust of India
Krishnadevan is Consulting Editor at BasisPoint Insight.
Chandra advises companies on big-picture narratives on strategy and markets.
Kalyan Ram co-founded Cogencis. He now leads BasisPoint Insight.
Gurumurthy is an ex-central banker who handled markets, and later, financial stability for RBI.
Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain is a former Commander of India’s Kashmir Corps.