R. Gurumurthy

R. Gurumurthy

Gurumurthy, ex-central banker and a Wharton alum, managed the rupee and forex reserves, government debt and played a key role in drafting India's Financial Stability Reports.

India's Problem Is Not the Storm; It is the Lull Before

External shocks will come and go. The real test of an economy is whether its institutions, productivity and competitiveness are strong enough to withstand them.

R. Gurumurthy

May 29, 2026 at 4:15 AM IST

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The Trishanku Bonds: Suspended Between Debt and Equity

AT1 bonds were meant to spare taxpayers by making investors absorb bank losses, but in crises they often become the selective sacrifice layer.

R. Gurumurthy

May 25, 2026 at 6:19 AM IST

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The RBI’s Overnight Triumph and India’s Term Market Problem

RBI may have largely stabilised overnight rates, but fragmented term funding markets continue to weaken monetary transmission across India’s broader financial system.

R. Gurumurthy

May 18, 2026 at 3:53 AM IST

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Japan’s 1973 Oil Shock Austerity Holds an Uncomfortable Lesson for India

Japan reengineered its economy with the 1973 austerity. But India is simultaneously a consumption story, a welfare state, and an aspirational society. Can austerity coexist with electoral welfare schemes?

R. Gurumurthy

May 13, 2026 at 7:20 AM IST

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Powell, Power, and the Cost of Credibility

Jerome Powell’s restraint under sustained political pressure shows that central banking credibility is shaped as much by conduct as by policy.

R. Gurumurthy

April 30, 2026 at 10:26 AM IST

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White House

India’s Market Rally Masks Rupee Stress and a Deeper Policy Drift

Opinion

Equity exuberance is obscuring currency weakness and rising external risks, as policy complacency risks amplifying shocks in an already fragile global setting.

R. Gurumurthy

April 29, 2026 at 6:16 AM IST

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RBI’s Crowded Messaging Risks Diluting Policy Signal

Bundled announcements blur the RBI’s policy signal. A separate financial stability policy and a tighter, single-voice format could restore clarity.

R. Gurumurthy

April 13, 2026 at 4:46 AM IST

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Term Money, Vague Intent

Monetary Policy

RBI’s move to open the term money market widens access, but its effectiveness will depend on design and regulatory clarity aligning with its objectives.

R. Gurumurthy

April 10, 2026 at 3:27 AM IST

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Accounting By Asterisk

Banks seek to defer MTM losses as yields rise, but masking volatility risks weakening discipline and blurring the line between transparency and regulatory convenience.

R. Gurumurthy

April 6, 2026 at 1:41 PM IST

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From Invisible Hand to Iron Fist: When Populism Rewires Capitalism

Populism is reshaping capitalism, expanding state power while weakening institutions. As markets grow politicised, the balance between democracy, governance, and economic freedom faces a critical test.

R. Gurumurthy

April 2, 2026 at 5:21 AM IST

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Managing the Rupee, Constraining the Market

RBI’s move can be seen as a necessary check on speculative bank positions, yet it may also narrow intermediation capacity and make rupee adjustment more abrupt.

R. Gurumurthy

March 30, 2026 at 8:33 AM IST

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When Gold ETFs Stop Being Gold

Gold ETFs promise price efficiency, but persistent gaps between NAV and market price reveal structural limits in India’s market, where weak arbitrage and retail flows distort pricing.

R. Gurumurthy

March 25, 2026 at 3:00 PM IST

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When Prices Don’t Adjust, the Currency Does

When yields and prices are restrained, the currency absorbs the shock. India’s adjustment is happening, just not where it is acknowledged.

R. Gurumurthy

March 23, 2026 at 8:11 AM IST

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Why Using RBI’s Contingency Reserves Is No Longer Heresy

Given current conditions, there is scope for using contingency reserves, doing away with capital gains, and reducing the size of government borrowing to send signals to external capital waiting to see countries with stability and growth.

R. Gurumurthy

March 18, 2026 at 12:23 PM IST

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The Comfort of Stability, The Cost of Silence

India’s bond market looks stable, but heavy RBI support and captive demand may be weakening price signals, distorting risk, and dulling its role as the system’s benchmark.

R. Gurumurthy

March 17, 2026 at 10:30 AM IST

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Why India Still Resists Short Selling

India’s caution toward short selling reflects its history and market structure, yet limiting it may weaken liquidity, price discovery, and capital market depth.

R. Gurumurthy

March 12, 2026 at 2:35 AM IST

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When AI’s Loyalties Are Tested: Data Sovereignty, Geopolitics and Energy Intensity

As AI systems power finance, defence and public infrastructure, questions of data control, energy supply and national jurisdiction are turning artificial intelligence into strategic infrastructure.

R. Gurumurthy

March 10, 2026 at 1:03 PM IST

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American Mania and the Drift Toward Strategic Hubris

A culture wired for competition and expansion may explain why American power often slides from confident leadership into strategic overreach.

R. Gurumurthy

March 7, 2026 at 3:02 PM IST

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Gold in Equity Funds Risks Expanding India’s Import Burden

Allowing equity mutual funds to invest in gold may aid diversification, yet in an import-dependent economy, it could quietly expand demand and pressure the external balance.

R. Gurumurthy

March 4, 2026 at 11:22 AM IST

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Listing, Legacy and Leverage at Tata Sons

An RBI rule has turned a chairmanship extension into a deeper contest over control, stewardship and the future architecture of India’s most influential conglomerate.

R. Gurumurthy

February 25, 2026 at 11:36 AM IST

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The Bureau

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