Rising oil prices, higher global yields and persistent uncertainty are narrowing the RBI’s room to hold rates, despite excess domestic liquidity.
Deepa Vasudevan
Istock.com
The Fed’s first rate increase since 2023 confirms Kevin Warsh’s hawkish start, but his retreat from forward guidance leaves markets to price the next move from data.
Dhananjay Sinha
The White House/ Wikimedia Commons
Trump changed the Fed chairman hoping for cheaper money. At the first big test, his new chairman raised rates instead: a reminder that presidents can change the occupant of the Fed, but not the arithmetic of inflation.
R. Gurumurthy
US Fed
Inflation at a 20-month high has pushed economists to bring forward tightening calls, with crude, food prices and firmer core inflation narrowing the RBI’s room to wait.
Richard Fargose
Poonam Gupta/LinkedIn
India’s inflation is climbing as wholesale pressures, costly crude and surplus liquidity strengthen the case for RBI to rethink its 5.25% repo rate.
Rising bond yields flag doubts about fiscal discipline, inflation risks and competition for capital. India is not immune to the global repricing.
Michael Debabrata Patra
istock.com
Micron’s AI-driven scarcity has created extraordinary profits. But as workers, rivals and governments seek a share, the real question is how long those rents can last.
Micron
India and China are bound by trade, divided by suspicion and shaped by history. As Modi and Xi test a fragile reset, can coexistence beat confrontation?
Phynix
PIB
Your weekly rundown of significant judicial rulings and legal battles influencing policy, companies, regulation, and governance
BasisPoint Insight
FSSAI
Political alignment affects not only fiscal transfers and economic outcomes, but also security. In an existing civil conflict, electing an aligned representative can reduce, rather than intensify, violence.
Amitrajeet A. Batabyal*
India’s banking supervision has focused heavily on procedural compliance. The next step should be stronger enforcement of risk governance, capital and controls.
Rahul Ghosh
Wladyslaw/ Via Wikicommon
Payrolls weakened the labour-market case for caution. This week’s CPI will decide whether Warsh’s Jackson Hole standard turns into a hike.
India’s 7.8% GDP growth has reignited debate over data, jobs and investment. The real question is whether headline growth is translating into better lives.
McKay Savage/Via Wikicommons
India’s speculative boom may be shifting from options to leveraged small-cap investing, raising deeper questions about jobs, financialisation and the real economy.
Sanjay Mansabdar
Giving banks a controlled exit option could turn poorly subscribed term VRRRs into a more effective instrument for absorbing surplus liquidity.
India’s financial data are extensive, but policy can still miss the economy beneath the aggregates when trade credit, payment behaviour and import distortions remain invisible.
BL Chandak
iStock.com/triloks
Jackson Hole made the case for greater Fed discretion. The price is a less visible reaction function and more uncertainty for markets.
BasisPoint Groupthink
Via WikiCommons
Two cases – Spicejet and Skoda Auto Volkswagen. Different forums, different disputes and different reasons as to why, but the courts reset years of litigation, taking the cases back to the starting line. A rehearing adds cost and effort for the judicial system, commercial enterprises and all other parties involved, but the question is how this can be avoided.
Shruti Mahajan
Vivek Kaul is a writer and an economic commentator.
Michael Patra is an economist and former RBI Deputy Governor.
Dr Subbarao is a former governor of RBI
Arvind Mayaram, former Finance Secretary, is Chairman of the Institute of Development Studies, Jaipur.
Dr Ashima Goyal is an Economist, Ex MPC Member.
Ajay Srivastava is the founder of the Global Trade Research Initiative.
Abheek is an Independent Economist and the Former Chief Economist at HDFC Bank.
Vijay Singh Chauhan, a former IRS official, is a Senior Visiting Fellow at ICPP, Ashoka University
Gurumurthy is an ex-central banker who handled markets, and later, financial stability for RBI.
Gaura is Chief Economist at IDFC First Bank.
Sharmila Kantha is an industrial policy specialist and author.
Lt Gen Hasnain is Governor, Bihar, and Former Commander of Chinar Corps.
Dhananjay, a D-School alum, is CEO and Co-Head of Equities at Systematix Group.
Ex-civil servant Chavaly held key Railways, Finance roles; specialises in infra & PPPs
Srinath is an author, corporate advisor, and independent director on corporate boards.
Amitabh Tiwari tracks politics with a strategic eye