The yen’s weakest level since 1986, a larger-than-expected trade deficit and a renewed threat of decisive FX action put Japan at the centre of the overnight policy debate.
BasisPoint Insight
iStock.com
The RBI can pause in August, but resilient growth, uneven rainfall and tight banking liquidity are preparing the ground for rate hikes.
Dipanwita Mazumdar
istock.com
Markets have largely priced in a pause at the August MPC meeting. The more consequential question is what comes after — and what it would take to get there.
Radhika Piplani
India's economy hums with activity, yet something feels missing. Perhaps our dysfunction is a different kind of structure, waiting to be understood rather than fixed.
Phynix
The August policy need not deliver a hike. It should deliver recognition that India should not meet a harder monetary world with an easing bias left ajar.
BasisPoint Groupthink
Oil volatility, rupee pressure and uncertain inflation leave the RBI little room as it balances price stability, liquidity and growth.
Madhavankutty G
Istock.com
With AI having become the frontline of an intense global competition for economic and geopolitical power, speed is rewarded, scale is celebrated, and market dominance is prized above all else. Under such conditions, we risk forgetting the most important question: Whom is this intelligence ultimately meant to serve?
Kailash Satyarthi
A 9–3 hold, three votes for a hike and a sharply steeper Treasury curve leave September live even as Warsh refuses to pre-commit.
Federal Reserve
Warsh wants investors to trade the data rather than the Fed. The post-meeting yield curve exposed the cost of asking markets to price policy without a visible reaction function.
Kalyan Ram
US Fed
The data favour a hold, but markets cannot rule out a credibility-building rate increase and the financial instability that could follow.
Yield Scribe
MAS pre-empts energy inflation with a surprise tightening, while Perry Warjiyo’s abrupt exit turns central-bank independence into a market risk.
Bank Indonesia
A generation dismissed as entitled took to the streets and made a government buckle. But will replacing one minister repair a system where trust has been steadily eroded?
X/CJP
From the Urjit Patel committee to the first MPC, Michael Patra traces how India designed, legislated, and launched flexible inflation targeting.
Michael Debabrata Patra
Via WikiCommons
India's record capex spending raises an uncomfortable question: is it building public wealth or merely accumulating debt? The government lacks the accounting to answer.
Sagari Gupta
Domestic measures can bolster the rupee temporarily, but costly global funding and attractive US assets remain the deeper sources of pressure.
Dhiraj Nim
What happens when institutions designed to serve people stop keeping their promises? Two protests reveal a pattern running through every system.
Pelph Hoters/ Via Wikicommons
The rupee’s slide may reflect more than oil and a stronger dollar; it could also suit the RBI’s risk calculus while the FCNR window remains open.
Inflation is up-trending, oil is volatile, and geopolitics keeps flaring up. And still, growth refuses to buckle. Here's why standing still may be RBI MPC's smartest move yet.
Aastha Gudwani
Michael Patra is an economist and former RBI Deputy Governor.
Abheek is an Independent Economist and the Former Chief Economist at HDFC Bank.
Ajay Srivastava is the founder of the Global Trade Research Initiative.
Vijay Singh Chauhan, a former IRS official, is a Senior Visiting Fellow at ICPP, Ashoka University
Dhananjay, a D-School alum, is CEO and Co-Head of Equities at Systematix Group.
Kriti is a psychologist specialising in mental health, org behaviour, and brand strategy
Srinath is an author, corporate advisor, and independent director on corporate boards.
Ex-civil servant Chavaly held key Railways, Finance roles; specialises in infra & PPPs
Nilanjan Banik, Professor at Mahindra University, specialises in trade and development economics.
Rahul Ghosh is a banking and risk expert.
Rajesh Mahapatra is the former Editor of The Press Trust of India
Krishnadevan is Editorial Director at BasisPoint Insight.
Chandra advises companies on big-picture narratives on strategy and markets.
Kalyan Ram co-founded Cogencis. He now leads BasisPoint Insight.
Gurumurthy is an ex-central banker who handled markets, and later, financial stability for RBI.
Arvind Mayaram, former Finance Secretary, is Chairman of the Institute of Development Studies, Jaipur.
Vivek Kaul is a writer and an economic commentator.