An effort to understand current monetary policy actions as the RBI navigates the impossible trinity of inflation, growth and external stability.
Arvind Chari
istock.com
Growth gets preventive care; inflation must first materialise, spread and bring witnesses. The June minutes preserve the case for rate cuts while making hikes clear a far higher bar.
Kalyan Ram
linkedin.com/Poonam Gupta
Daily insights on the decisions, signals and risks shaping central-bank policy across the world’s major economies.
BasisPoint Insight
iStock.com
The new Chair’s hawkish debut was less about an imminent rate rise than restoring discipline, credibility and uncertainty to US monetary policy.
BasisPoint Groupthink
US Fed
Federal Reserve
The Fed left rates at 3.50-3.75%, but higher dots, hotter inflation forecasts and the removal of forward guidance pushed markets to price renewed hike risk.
It would be easy—and a mistake—to blame the US Federal Reserve’s many blunders on corrupt bureaucrats or imagined conspiracies. The truth of the matter is that the central bank relies on an outdated regional map and lagging indicators that no longer tell the whole story, while battling macroeconomic blazes that politicians stoke.
Todd G. Buchholz
Via WikiCommons
Kevin Warsh could reshape Fed communication, inflation signals, balance-sheet policy and employment goals, marking a decisive break from the Powell era.
V Thiagarajan
The White House
Oil shocks always warrant vigilance, but this time around India’s external buffers, services export strength, and improved policy framework make 1991 analogies more distracting than useful.
RBI’s FCNR swap may echo 2013, but Basel rules, dollar-funding stress and forward liabilities make this a harder trade.
Wladyslaw/ Via Wikicommon
A Japanese bestseller, an RBI dilemma and an AI bubble all point to the same uncomfortable question: when does buying time stop being a strategy?
Phynix
Daily insights on the decisions, signals and risks shaping central-bank policy across the world's major economies.
SEBI wants capital, information and liquidity to move faster. The next market shock will reveal whether speed comes at a cost.
Krishnadevan V
Via Wikicommons
Europe’s AI law shows why India may be right to build oversight capacity before rushing into a full statute.
Pranav Rai
The market thinks lower circuits protect investors. Rajesh Exports shows they can also prevent investors from selling.
India’s central bank has secured breathing room amid mounting external pressures. Whether that respite endures now depends on reforms beyond Mint Street.
Srinath Sridharan
Anand Venkatanarayanan
Michael Patra is an economist and former RBI Deputy Governor.
Abheek is an Independent Economist and the Former Chief Economist at HDFC Bank.
Ajay Srivastava is the founder of the Global Trade Research Initiative.
Vijay Singh Chauhan, a former IRS official, is a Senior Visiting Fellow at ICPP, Ashoka University
Dhananjay, a D-School alum, is CEO and Co-Head of Equities at Systematix Group.
Kriti is a psychologist specialising in mental health, org behaviour, and brand strategy
Srinath is an author, corporate advisor, and independent director on corporate boards.
Ex-civil servant Chavaly held key Railways, Finance roles; specialises in infra & PPPs
Nilanjan Banik, Professor at Mahindra University, specialises in trade and development economics.
Rahul Ghosh is a banking and risk expert.
Rajesh Mahapatra is the former Editor of The Press Trust of India
Krishnadevan is Editorial Director at BasisPoint Insight.
Chandra advises companies on big-picture narratives on strategy and markets.
Kalyan Ram co-founded Cogencis. He now leads BasisPoint Insight.
Gurumurthy is an ex-central banker who handled markets, and later, financial stability for RBI.
Arvind Mayaram, former Finance Secretary, is Chairman of the Institute of Development Studies, Jaipur.