V Thiagarajan

Venkat Thiagarajan is a currency market veteran.

The NEET Paradox and India’s Fragile Demographic Dividend

India’s vast youth population was expected to drive growth. Rising youth disengagement now threatens productivity, investment and stability.

V Thiagarajan

June 2, 2026 at 5:41 AM IST

istock.com

Rupee Near 100: When Currency Weakness Reflects a Trust Deficit

Opinion

The rupee’s slide reflects fading confidence in India’s monetary credibility, fiscal discipline and the RBI’s ability to anchor investor trust.

V Thiagarajan

May 21, 2026 at 3:14 AM IST

iStock.com

The Two-Year Yield Is Starting to Challenge the Fed

The two-year Treasury yield is beginning to price a world where the next Fed move may no longer be a cut.

V Thiagarajan

May 18, 2026 at 5:54 AM IST

Federal Reserve

Borrowed Dollars Won’t Fix India’s External Pressures

Briefing

RBI risks confusing reserve accumulation with resilience as quasi-sovereign FX mobilisation threatens to create future liabilities instead of lasting stability.

V Thiagarajan

May 7, 2026 at 12:48 PM IST

Istock.com

When Institutions Choose Rhetoric Over Reality, Markets Keep Score

History shows that confidence narratives cannot mask fragility. When rhetoric diverges from reality, markets punish with lost trust and slower recovery.

V Thiagarajan

May 4, 2026 at 5:27 AM IST

iStock.com

RBI’s Offshore FX Mandate Risks Turning Transparency Into Tension

India’s push to monitor offshore rupee trades may improve visibility but also risk regulatory friction, investor unease, and unintended capital-flow consequences.

V Thiagarajan

April 30, 2026 at 3:36 AM IST

Capital Turns Selective, Credibility Becomes Policy

As global capital grows more selective, India must prioritise policy credibility, predictability, and coordination to sustain inflows.

V Thiagarajan

April 24, 2026 at 5:45 AM IST

Why a Weaker Rupee Doesn’t Always Mean Stronger Growth

Exchange rate depreciation is often read as an engine of growth. For India, import dependence and balance sheet vulnerabilities tell a different story.

V Thiagarajan

April 14, 2026 at 2:22 PM IST

iStock.com

RBI Snaps Onshore–Offshore Rupee Link to Curb FX Arbitrage

Curbs on NDFs and rebooking may steady the rupee in the near term, but risk widening onshore-offshore gaps and unsettling foreign investors

V Thiagarajan

April 2, 2026 at 2:09 AM IST

More Reserves Won’t Buy Stability Without Credibility

Rising FX reserves have not guaranteed currency stability. Markets respond more to central bank credibility, signalling and policy clarity than to sheer reserve size.

V Thiagarajan

March 24, 2026 at 7:02 AM IST

iStock.com

Reading Gold Right Means Reading Oil Too

Gold’s rally is not a simple safe-haven story. The gold–oil ratio suggests markets may be misreading risk, inflation and what comes next.

V Thiagarajan

March 23, 2026 at 1:21 PM IST

iStock.com

Beyond the Hype: Why AI May Not Deliver as Advertised

Briefing

AI is being priced as destiny. History suggests technological revolutions travel a slower, more uneven path than markets assume.

V Thiagarajan

March 4, 2026 at 2:26 PM IST

iStock.com

RBI’s New FX Framework Signals Controlled Integration

Briefing

India’s new FX framework deepens global integration, but reinforces capital, reporting and exposure guardrails.

V Thiagarajan

February 21, 2026 at 6:51 AM IST

The Imperatives of a Warsh Fed

Briefing

Kevin Warsh’s Fed would not rewrite doctrine but would enforce imperatives: restore rate primacy, shrink the balance sheet, and let markets price risk again.

V Thiagarajan

February 5, 2026 at 2:48 AM IST

Future to be Authored, Not Avoided by Probabilistic Pessimism

Briefing

By assigning high odds to global disorder, the Economic Survey risked framing uncertainty as paralysis. Public policy must govern the future, not hedge it.

V Thiagarajan

January 31, 2026 at 3:57 PM IST

The Turkey Illusion

The illusion of rupee stability in 2024 hid rising risks, as intervention suppressed price signals until volatility returned with force

V Thiagarajan

January 27, 2026 at 4:36 AM IST

Why the RBI Uses Buy-Sell FX Swaps and What They Really Mean

Briefing

RBI’s buy-sell FX swaps are read as rupee signals. They are not. An explainer on why swaps manage liquidity and hedging, not the exchange rate.

V Thiagarajan

January 14, 2026 at 4:24 AM IST

Back to the Future – The Tokyo Drift

A look at Japan and China shows how familiar policy instincts can trap economies in slow-growth loops, even when policymakers believe they know better.

V Thiagarajan

December 6, 2025 at 7:06 AM IST

iStock.com

A Nervous Rupee Meets an Uncomfortable Silence

The rupee’s slide toward 90 underscores a central truth: currencies are not just reflections of fundamentals. They are also mirrors of policy signalling, global crosswinds, biases, and narratives.

V Thiagarajan

December 3, 2025 at 2:42 AM IST

iStock.com

India’s Exchange Rate Regime Faces a Moment of Truth

Briefing

With the rupee trading like a caged bird and IMF reclassification looming, India faces a reckoning on what its exchange rate regime really is.

V Thiagarajan

November 26, 2025 at 3:22 AM IST

The Bureau

Geopolitical Risks Weigh on Equities as Oil Remains Elevated

SEBI Finds Rajesh Exports misstated ₹15 trillion in sales over 5 years

US Alleges India, Others of Forced Labour, Proposes New 12.5% Tariffs

RBI Expected to Hold Rates, Focus Turns to Inflation and the Rupee

India-Oman FTA: Securing a Gulf Gateway Outside Hormuz

RBI Surplus Leaves Thin Fiscal Buffer, But May Ease Liquidity, QuantEco Says

RBI Forward Book Shows ₹434 Billion Valuation Loss As Rupee Pressure Bites

India Cuts Monsoon Rain Forecast to 90%

Flawed Design, Poor Planning Make Extreme Heat Conditions Worse For Indian Cities

Learning to Shoot: I Tried to Fly Before I Could Walk