BasisPoint Groupthink

Groupthink is the House View of BasisPoint’s in-house columnists.

RBI’s Malhotra May Be Preparing the Ground for Calibrated Rate Action

Focus on second-round effects and expectations hints at shallow, signalling-led rate hikes.

April 21, 2026 at 7:47 AM IST

RBI

RBI Reframes Signals from Capital Flows

RBI messaging is split between cyclical optimism and structural detachment, reframing the way markets interpret FPI outflows amid stronger FDI and steady fundamentals.

BasisPoint Groupthink

April 14, 2026 at 8:12 AM IST

Risk Signals, Not Reassurance from RBI’s GDP, CPI Projections

Monetary Policy

RBI’s latest projections acknowledge a harder macro trade-off, with external shocks reviving inflation risks and forcing policy into a more conditional, risk-managed stance.

BasisPoint Groupthink

April 8, 2026 at 10:43 AM IST

iStock.com

War Breaks the Policy Cycle

Monetary Policy

The April MPC ends the disinflation-led easing phase, pushing the RBI into a supply-shock regime where inflation risks rise even as growth weakens.

BasisPoint Groupthink

April 8, 2026 at 9:02 AM IST

linkedin.com/Poonam Gupta

RBI Faces a Real Interrogation as Markets Probe Its Playbook

Monetary Policy

In a multi-shock setting, the question is no longer about reassurance, but whether the reaction function holds

BasisPoint Groupthink

April 6, 2026 at 6:30 AM IST

Stop Calling It a Favour

Fuel price stability is not a favour from the state. It is paid for by taxpayers and balance sheets, and presenting it otherwise distorts accountability.

BasisPoint Groupthink

March 27, 2026 at 7:11 AM IST

iStock.com

Shock Rules, Not Shock Responses

Lagarde’s three principles recast shock response as risk management. For the RBI, the task shifts to containing spillovers, not just inflation.

BasisPoint Groupthink

March 26, 2026 at 5:13 AM IST

Via WikiCommons

When Policy Space Shrinks, Balance Sheets Must Do More

As war-driven geopolitical shocks tighten India’s macro constraints, two under-discussed proposals on RBI reserves and dollar liquidity offer alternative stabilisation paths worth debating.

BasisPoint Groupthink

March 24, 2026 at 12:45 PM IST

When Neutrality Becomes Silence

Geopolitics

As wars increasingly become theatres for technological display, rising powers such as India may need to move beyond strategic autonomy and articulate the principles that should still govern the use of force.

BasisPoint Groupthink

March 7, 2026 at 12:31 PM IST

iStock.com

New GDP Series May Recast Growth, Deficit Math

The new GDP series could alter fiscal deficit calculations and shape expectations from monetary policy.

BasisPoint Groupthink

February 26, 2026 at 3:38 PM IST

iStock.com

RBI Minutes Show Neutral Is No Longer Tactical

MPC Review

Neutral is no longer a pause before easing. February’s minutes recast it as a strategy, with April’s data reset pivotal.

BasisPoint Groupthink

February 22, 2026 at 11:24 AM IST

Poonam Gupta/LinkedIn

India–US Trade Deal, the EU Trigger and the Limits of Celebration

The India–US trade deal offers tariff relief, not a clear win. India has conceded ground, gained breathing space, and must now wait for the fine print to determine the balance.

BasisPoint Groupthink

February 3, 2026 at 4:24 AM IST

White House

RBI’s Rate Cut Shows Rupee is No Obstacle to Easing

Monetary Policy

The MPC cut rates despite the rupee’s wobble, signalling what policy has long implied. The currency is simply not a factor in the RBI’s rate calculus.

BasisPoint Groupthink

December 5, 2025 at 2:12 PM IST

Goodbye Inflation, See You in Next Cycle

Monetary Policy

The RBI’s rate cut reflects the end of an inflation cycle that began in 2022 and collapsed spectacularly in 2025.

BasisPoint Groupthink

December 5, 2025 at 8:00 AM IST

RBI Cuts Rates, Reading Softness Beneath the 8.2% Shine

Monetary Policy

RBI cut rates despite 8.2% growth, signalling it sees early softening beneath the headline and is using rare disinflation space to steady momentum and cool yields.

BasisPoint Groupthink

December 5, 2025 at 5:17 AM IST

RBI Tweets

Rupee Dilemma: The Case for Strategic Silence

RBI’s reticence, even as the rupee slips past 90, has unsettled markets. But sometimes, saying more only compounds the problem.

BasisPoint Groupthink

December 4, 2025 at 4:30 AM IST

The Quarter When Nominal Growth Became the Real Signal

India’s latest GDP numbers reveal strong real activity but muted income generation. The narrow real–nominal gap reframes the entire growth narrative.

BasisPoint Groupthink

November 29, 2025 at 6:26 AM IST

Finance Ministry

Fiscal Calm Masks Fragile Math Built on Windfalls and Deflators

India may meet its 4.4% deficit goal this year, but only through one-off gains and statistical cushions that leave its fiscal base exposed.

BasisPoint Groupthink

November 13, 2025 at 12:36 PM IST

Finance Ministry

Indian Refiners Lose the Russian Cushion

Washington’s sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil threaten to upend India’s cost advantage in crude oil imports.

BasisPoint Groupthink

October 24, 2025 at 12:09 PM IST

iStock.com

MPC’s New Voice Speaks the Old Grammar of Caution

Monetary Policy

Indranil Bhattacharyya’s debut echoes the RBI’s old grammar of caution—clear in logic, yet padded with the rhetorical crutches it didn’t need.

BasisPoint Groupthink

October 17, 2025 at 1:19 PM IST

The Bureau

Equities Hit Six-Week Highs as Banks Rally; US-Iran Talk Hopes Lift Sentiment

RBI Flags Second-Round Inflation Risks from West Asia Conflict

Hormuz Open for Commercial Shipping as Trump, Iran Signal Détente

EU to Widen CBAM Tax Net to 180 More Products

Govt Keeps Delimitation Framework Open, Proposes Raising Lok Sabha Strength to 850

Services Export May Overtake Merchandise in 2026-27, Fingers Crossed on AI

India’s FY26 Trade Gap Widens as Import Momentum Outpaces Patchy Export Gains

IMD Sees Below-Normal Monsoon Rains for 2026; Rainfall Likely at 92% of Average

Deficient Monsoon, Iran War: A Double Shock to India’s Rural Economy

Learning to Shoot: I Tried to Fly Before I Could Walk