BasisPoint Groupthink

Groupthink is the House View of BasisPoint’s in-house columnists.

The Market Is Pricing the RBI, Not Inflation

June CPI rose, yet rate-hike calls faded. The market is pricing the RBI’s growth bias—not inflation—and echoing the central bank back to itself.

July 15, 2026 at 5:30 AM IST

istock.com

Mind the New Numbers

India is changing how it measures growth and prices. Bond and currency markets should pay attention

BasisPoint Groupthink

July 13, 2026 at 6:44 AM IST

istock.com

No Victory Lap on a Smouldering Truce

Fresh US strikes on Iran show that the ceasefire is at best an interval in a wider conflict; India must stay alert, not relieved.

BasisPoint Groupthink

July 8, 2026 at 6:56 AM IST

istock.com

Malhotra’s Message to Markets: No Case Yet for Rate Hikes

RBI is declining to act before inflation becomes visible, broad-based and persistent. It doesn’t want markets to brace for a tightening cycle yet.

BasisPoint Groupthink

June 24, 2026 at 1:33 PM IST

Trump’s Iran Deal: This Is What Cutting Losses Looks Like

The agreement is neither victory nor surrender. It is Washington’s recognition that a costly war had stopped serving American interests and that even Israel cannot dictate the limits of US strategy.

BasisPoint Groupthink

June 19, 2026 at 8:57 AM IST

Warsh’s Fed has Put Inflation Credibility Ahead of Market Comfort

The new Chair’s hawkish debut was less about an imminent rate rise than restoring discipline, credibility and uncertainty to US monetary policy.

BasisPoint Groupthink

June 18, 2026 at 3:56 AM IST

US Fed

Not Every Oil Shock or Sharp Currency Move is 1991

Oil shocks always warrant vigilance, but this time around India’s external buffers, services export strength, and improved policy framework make 1991 analogies more distracting than useful.

BasisPoint Groupthink

June 16, 2026 at 2:27 AM IST

iStock.com

RBI Cannot Afford to Look Through This Shock

The RBI's own forecasts suggest it cannot ignore energy and food shocks. Rising core inflation may require rates to move back towards 6%.

BasisPoint Groupthink

June 8, 2026 at 6:05 AM IST

iStock.com

RBI Defends the Framework, Not the Rupee

Monetary Policy

The RBI chose capital-flow measures over rate action, reinforcing the principle that inflation and growth, not the exchange rate, remain monetary policy's primary mandate.

BasisPoint Groupthink

June 5, 2026 at 6:08 AM IST

istock.com

The Rupee Does Not Need a Speaking Role in Monetary Policy

Monetary Policy

The June review will be scrutinised for clues on how the MPC views rupee weakness, as an inflation risk or as a monetary policy consideration.

BasisPoint Groupthink

June 4, 2026 at 1:26 PM IST

Istock.com

Bank Indonesia Has Chosen Currency Defence Over Comfort

The rupiah’s slide left Bank Indonesia with shrinking room for patience. The 50-bp hike is as much about credibility as inflation.

BasisPoint Groupthink

May 20, 2026 at 12:49 PM IST

Istock.com

Above and Beyond Duty

Current macroeconomic stress may mute criticism over the disproportionate increase in cess relative to customs duty in the latest hike in import taxes on gold and silver.

BasisPoint Groupthink

May 13, 2026 at 9:27 AM IST

stock/Andy

Congress Finds an Opening as Rivals Fade, but Time is Running Out

Congress faces a narrower but clearer path as rivals fade, but without vision and organisational reset, the opening may yet strengthen the BJP’s dominance.

BasisPoint Groupthink

May 5, 2026 at 8:28 AM IST

inc.in/

RBI Leans on FDI, Trade Deals as Rupee Tests Record Lows

As the rupee weakens and portfolio flows turn volatile, the RBI is doubling down on FDI and trade deals to anchor India’s external financing.

BasisPoint Groupthink

May 2, 2026 at 6:03 AM IST

iStock.com

Economic Review Flags Supply Risks as India Faces a Harder Inflation Test

The latest economic review signals resilience, but supply disruptions may soon test growth, inflation, and policy tools in ways that demand management cannot offset.

BasisPoint Groupthink

April 30, 2026 at 6:12 AM IST

Istock.com

RBI’s Currency Curbs Leave Markets Nursing More Than Losses

Forced FX unwinds have imposed losses, but the deeper impact is behavioural. Markets may turn cautious amid concerns about risk, liquidity, and RBI initiatives.

BasisPoint Groupthink

April 27, 2026 at 3:28 AM IST

When Neat Policy Theory Meets a Messier Reality

MPC Minutes

The RBI’s April minutes show a textbook response to a supply shock, but the Iran conflict is testing the limits of clean policy rules.

BasisPoint Groupthink

April 22, 2026 at 3:04 PM IST

linkedin.com/Poonam Gupta

RBI Reframes Signals from Capital Flows

RBI messaging is split between cyclical optimism and structural detachment, reframing the way markets interpret FPI outflows amid stronger FDI and steady fundamentals.

BasisPoint Groupthink

April 14, 2026 at 8:12 AM IST

Risk Signals, Not Reassurance from RBI’s GDP, CPI Projections

Monetary Policy

RBI’s latest projections acknowledge a harder macro trade-off, with external shocks reviving inflation risks and forcing policy into a more conditional, risk-managed stance.

BasisPoint Groupthink

April 8, 2026 at 10:43 AM IST

iStock.com

War Breaks the Policy Cycle

Monetary Policy

The April MPC ends the disinflation-led easing phase, pushing the RBI into a supply-shock regime where inflation risks rise even as growth weakens.

BasisPoint Groupthink

April 8, 2026 at 9:02 AM IST

linkedin.com/Poonam Gupta

The Bureau

RBI Says TOP Price Pressure Continuing in July

Seoul Opens the Tightening Cycle

RBI REER improves to 91.26 in June, against multi-year lows in May

Trump Threatens Iran With Eye-for-an-Eye Response

CJP Stir Disrupts Parliament, Wangchuk Sets Condition to End Fast

Oil Shock, Bank Sell-Off Push Nifty Below 24,000 as Rupee Nears Record Low

Trump Threatens 100-200% Tariffs on Generic Drug Imports After 2-Year Duty-Free Period

AI Rally Lifts Asia, but Geopolitical Risks Keep Sentiment Fragile

The Foster Mother of Lodhi Garden

Shyam Sundar Sharma