BasisPoint Groupthink

Groupthink is the House View of BasisPoint’s in-house columnists.

New GDP Series May Recast Growth, Deficit Math

The new GDP series could alter fiscal deficit calculations and shape expectations from monetary policy.

February 26, 2026 at 3:38 PM IST

iStock.com

RBI Minutes Show Neutral Is No Longer Tactical

MPC Review

Neutral is no longer a pause before easing. February’s minutes recast it as a strategy, with April’s data reset pivotal.

BasisPoint Groupthink

February 22, 2026 at 11:24 AM IST

Poonam Gupta/LinkedIn

India–US Trade Deal, the EU Trigger and the Limits of Celebration

The India–US trade deal offers tariff relief, not a clear win. India has conceded ground, gained breathing space, and must now wait for the fine print to determine the balance.

BasisPoint Groupthink

February 3, 2026 at 4:24 AM IST

White House

RBI’s Rate Cut Shows Rupee is No Obstacle to Easing

Monetary Policy

The MPC cut rates despite the rupee’s wobble, signalling what policy has long implied. The currency is simply not a factor in the RBI’s rate calculus.

BasisPoint Groupthink

December 5, 2025 at 2:12 PM IST

Goodbye Inflation, See You in Next Cycle

Monetary Policy

The RBI’s rate cut reflects the end of an inflation cycle that began in 2022 and collapsed spectacularly in 2025.

BasisPoint Groupthink

December 5, 2025 at 8:00 AM IST

RBI Cuts Rates, Reading Softness Beneath the 8.2% Shine

Monetary Policy

RBI cut rates despite 8.2% growth, signalling it sees early softening beneath the headline and is using rare disinflation space to steady momentum and cool yields.

BasisPoint Groupthink

December 5, 2025 at 5:17 AM IST

RBI Tweets

Rupee Dilemma: The Case for Strategic Silence

RBI’s reticence, even as the rupee slips past 90, has unsettled markets. But sometimes, saying more only compounds the problem.

BasisPoint Groupthink

December 4, 2025 at 4:30 AM IST

The Quarter When Nominal Growth Became the Real Signal

India’s latest GDP numbers reveal strong real activity but muted income generation. The narrow real–nominal gap reframes the entire growth narrative.

BasisPoint Groupthink

November 29, 2025 at 6:26 AM IST

Finance Ministry

Fiscal Calm Masks Fragile Math Built on Windfalls and Deflators

India may meet its 4.4% deficit goal this year, but only through one-off gains and statistical cushions that leave its fiscal base exposed.

BasisPoint Groupthink

November 13, 2025 at 12:36 PM IST

Finance Ministry

Indian Refiners Lose the Russian Cushion

Washington’s sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil threaten to upend India’s cost advantage in crude oil imports.

BasisPoint Groupthink

October 24, 2025 at 12:09 PM IST

iStock.com

MPC’s New Voice Speaks the Old Grammar of Caution

Monetary Policy

Indranil Bhattacharyya’s debut echoes the RBI’s old grammar of caution—clear in logic, yet padded with the rhetorical crutches it didn’t need.

BasisPoint Groupthink

October 17, 2025 at 1:19 PM IST

Partly Monetary Policy, Largely Credit Policy

WRAP

RBI holds repo rate at 5.5% but turns back to credit policy playbook, spurring lending while leaving December wide open for rate cuts.

BasisPoint Groupthink

October 1, 2025 at 12:22 PM IST

Poonam Gupta's tweet

Time for RBI to Recount, Reset

Monetary Policy

Beyond the rate call, the October review must recount what has been done, what was achieved, and set the compass for policy in the year ahead.

BasisPoint Groupthink

September 30, 2025 at 10:23 AM IST

iStock.com

Powell’s Quiet Win Against Trump’s Noise

Powell rallied colleagues for a cautious cut, resisting Trump’s pressure. His quiet resilience showed the Fed can still steer its own course.

BasisPoint Groupthink

September 18, 2025 at 2:28 AM IST

White House

Global Leaders Turn Modi’s 75th Birthday Into Diplomatic Spectacle

At 75, Modi’s birthday became a stage for diplomacy and spectacle, with tributes reflecting both his stature and India’s shifting place in the world.

BasisPoint Groupthink

September 17, 2025 at 2:11 PM IST

PIB

Why India’s Stock Markets are Poised for a Major Shift

SEBI reforms unlock mega IPOs and foreign capital with SWAGAT initiative, setting the stage for stable, long-term investments in India

BasisPoint Groupthink

September 13, 2025 at 11:27 AM IST

Jimmy vikas/cc

A New Approach in Trump’s War On Powell

Trump’s latest jab at Powell swaps brute force for reductio ad absurdum, arming his Fed critique with jokes, jargon, and a dash of intellectual flair.

BasisPoint Groupthink

September 10, 2025 at 2:08 AM IST

Cash Cows, Not Tech Leaders

Indian IT fattens shareholders with buybacks, but starves itself of ideas. Cash cows seldom become global tech pioneers.

BasisPoint Groupthink

September 9, 2025 at 6:08 AM IST

iStock.com

Eggheads, Not Cheerleaders

When institutional heads slip into boosterism, they stop being referees and start misleading the very investors they are meant to protect.

BasisPoint Groupthink

September 2, 2025 at 2:21 PM IST

iStock.com

Open Mouths, Open Markets, and RBI’s Signalling Gap

The RBI’s June gamble of frontloaded easing and a sudden neutral stance has backfired, raising borrowing costs. Governor Malhotra now needs both words and deeds.

BasisPoint Groupthink

August 27, 2025 at 6:45 AM IST

RBI

The Bureau

US Treasury Secretary Says Allowed India to Buy Russian Crude Oil for 30 Days

Asian Markets Slide as Oil Surge Deepens Risk-Off Mood

Auto Retail Sales Surge to Record February Levels, Led by Two-Wheelers and Tractors

Oil Shock Threatens Wider External Gap; FY27 CAD at 2% if Crude Averages $80: IDFC FIRST Bank

RBI Governor Sees Rates on Prolonged Pause or Lower for a “Long Time”: Economic Times

Trump Announces Killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Vows Continued Strikes in Iran

New GDP Data: Problem Fixed, Or Made Worse?

Learning to Shoot: I Tried to Fly Before I Could Walk