Abheek Barua

Abheek Barua

Abheek, an independent economist and ex-Chief Economist at HDFC Bank, provides deep insights into financial markets and policy trends.

India’s External Strength Masks a Growing Vulnerability Problem

Budget 2026

Strong reserves give India comfort today, but frequent geopolitical and tech shocks risk steadily eroding its external resilience.

Abheek Barua

January 20, 2026 at 6:31 AM IST

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Screengrab from "RBI Unlocked: Beyond the Rupee" series (JioHotstar)

Rupee Depreciation: How Much More?

India’s recent rupee depreciation is not a typical bout of capital flight but reflects deeper unease among global investors despite strong headline growth. Questions around earnings visibility, data credibility, and the limits of India’s exchange-rate management are now converging on the currency.

Abheek Barua

January 6, 2026 at 7:30 AM IST

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Through the Glass Darkly: Listing The Known Unknowns

As global risks mount, from volatility in the Russian oil supply to uncertainty over the future of the Fed chair, are we adequately prepared for the coming economic shocks?

Abheek Barua

July 23, 2025 at 10:02 AM IST

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Federal Reserve

RBI’s New Dharma: Bold Cuts, Balanced Stance

Monetary Policy

With its bold cuts in repo rate and CRR, and the shift in stance, the RBI has tried to play its role in pushing growth but has a contingency plan, should things go wrong. 

Abheek Barua

June 6, 2025 at 9:49 AM IST

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RBI

Apple, Trump, And The Real Cost Of Making Things

Trump’s push to bring Apple’s factories home challenges India’s China+1 dream. But productivity, not wages, may be the real battleground.

Abheek Barua

May 21, 2025 at 6:22 AM IST

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RBI’s ‘Stance’ Is Still Standing; But Should It Be Retired For Good? 

The RBI clings to its ambiguous stance on monetary policy. In a world demanding clarity, is it still useful, or merely an obstacle to transparency? 

Abheek Barua

May 8, 2025 at 1:32 AM IST

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RBI Chooses Growth Over Inflation As Tariff War Clouds Intensify

Monetary Policy

The RBI’s shift to an accommodative stance signals a growth-first approach, but its crisis response still feels too mild for the storm brewing.

Abheek Barua

April 9, 2025 at 7:46 AM IST

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Anurag Vijay/CC

Reciprocal Tariffs: Brace For Impact

Monetary Policy

Should the RBI and indeed all central banks see the current situation as primarily an inflation problem or a growth problem?

Abheek Barua

April 4, 2025 at 7:44 AM IST

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Goodbye, Mr Greenback?

For long, the status of the dollar has given the US the “exorbitant privilege” of being unconstrained by its external balances.

Abheek Barua

March 24, 2025 at 3:12 AM IST

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Rupee At A Crossroads: Stability, Competitiveness, And The Fragility Of Reserves

India’s reserves are built on capital inflows rather than trade surplus, making them vulnerable to sudden exits.

Abheek Barua

February 16, 2025 at 3:41 PM IST

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Can The RBI Afford To Cut Rates?

Markets expect a rate cut, but can the RBI risk it amid global tariff wars, rising inflation, and currency pressures?

Abheek Barua

February 4, 2025 at 7:46 AM IST

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Budget May Have To Reset India’s Growth Engine From Investment To Consumption

It is pointless to debate whether the current slowdown is cyclical or structural; what matters is finding a way forward. The Budget 2025-26 will have to navigate a complex economic landscape where growth momentum has faltered just when it was expected to pick up. 

Abheek Barua

January 30, 2025 at 9:44 AM IST

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The Bureau

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