India’s Exports to US Fall 20% in September as Trump Tariffs Bite: GTRI

BasisPoint Insight

October 15, 2025 at 4:26 PM IST

Riding Giants: How India May Catch the Next Big FDI Swell

Trump’s tariffs may unleash a new FDI swell, with reforms, startups and geopolitics aligning as India readies to ride the next big wave.

Michael Debabrata Patra

October 15, 2025 at 3:34 AM IST

iStock.com

India’s Growth Outlook Stays Resilient as IMF Flags Fragile Global Recovery

India leads among major economies as global momentum weakens amid tariff and trade uncertainty

BasisPoint Insight

October 14, 2025 at 3:05 PM IST

iStock.com

Opinion

Is Strategic Disinvestment the Next Frontier in Economic Reform?

Following the GST 2.0, the government should aggressively pursue strategic divestment in PSUs to strengthen its finances and enhance shareholder value.

Nilanjan Banik

October 14, 2025 at 3:11 AM IST

iStock.com

The Stain Theory of Investing

From tariffs to AI, every setback is being spun into a strategy. Investors should beware India’s growing stain premium before the rinse begins.

Krishnadevan V

October 6, 2025 at 8:36 AM IST

Amey Bane/iStockphoto.com

Tragicomix

Nobel Committee’s Trump Problem

From peace talks to bleach cures, Trump’s legacy baffles the Nobel Committee: too vast for one medal, inspiring a new prize for sheer unintended innovation.

R. Gurumurthy

October 4, 2025 at 7:13 AM IST

Export Monitor

Indian Exports May be More than Just Faltering

India’s exports have weakened across major markets. A temporary surge in shipments to the US provided some relief, but rising tariffs have added pressure on growth prospects.

Rajesh Mahapatra

October 4, 2025 at 6:45 AM IST

iStock.com/MAGNIFIER

Monetary Policy

Is the Hunt for a Terminal Repo Rate a Distraction?

Markets may be too eager to bottom-fish for a terminal repo rate. In today’s fluid context, flexibility could matter more than fixation.

Kalyan Ram

October 1, 2025 at 9:34 AM IST

iStock.com

Monetary Policy

RBI Reopens the Door to Accommodation

By keeping the repo unchanged yet signalling policy space, RBI corrects June’s misstep and restores credibility to its accommodative posture.

Kalyan Ram

October 1, 2025 at 8:31 AM IST

Screengrab

Trump's Beggar-the-Poor Remittance Tax

The Trump administration’s remittance tax is only the latest in a series of punitive US measures aimed at the developing world. More are surely to come.

Hippolyte Fofack

September 30, 2025 at 7:08 PM IST

Via WikiCommons

Monetary Policy

RBI Should Stay on Hold in October to Preserve Stability

With inflation subdued and growth resilient but external shocks looming, the RBI’s wisest move in October is to pause and preserve stability.

N. Srinivasa Rao

September 30, 2025 at 4:01 AM IST

Anurag Vijay/CC

Most Indian Pharma Exports May Escape US Tariff, But Uncertainty Clouds Branded Generics

US 100% tariff plan sparks confusion: if branded generics are treated as patented drugs, India is safe; if as branded imports, then some pharma exports face trouble.

Ajay Srivastava

September 26, 2025 at 7:56 AM IST

Istock.com/moussa81

Is IT Services Sector Set for Extended Period of Underperformance?

IT stocks lost their defensive edge, lagging Sensex with weak earnings, global headwinds and valuation drag; outlook stays cautious.

Chokkalingam G

September 23, 2025 at 9:23 AM IST

iStock.com/Kandarp Gupta

How Post-COVID Tailwinds Triggered H-1B Pushback; Is Macro Reset the Answer?

The post-pandemic export surge drew US fire on visas. With services under pressure, India’s answer cannot be piecemeal—it must be a macro-level reset.

Dhananjay Sinha

September 21, 2025 at 3:28 PM IST

iStock.com

US Tariffs and the Future of India’s MSME Sector

US tariffs may hurt, but a predictive analysis shows India's MSMEs can use diversification and technological to transform risk into resilience and triple exports by 2047.

Hemachandra Padhan

September 19, 2025 at 7:57 AM IST

iStock.com/triloks

Crushed Volatility: How SEBI’s Clampdown Risks Killing the Options Game

SEBI’s clampdown on arbitrageurs has exposed retail traders’ habits, crushed implied volatility, and raised a sobering question.

Sanjay Mansabdar

September 17, 2025 at 6:09 AM IST

iStock.com

India–US Talks: Breakthrough Unlikely Unless Trump Drops Extra 25% Tariffs

Making of a stalemate? India wants the 25% Russia-linked penalty dropped — but that won’t be easy for Washington, since it is already citing the tariff in its Supreme Court defence

Ajay Srivastava

September 16, 2025 at 3:47 PM IST

Trump’s Queen of Hearts Tariffs

Trump’s tariffs may sting, but India channels Ali’s art—floating lightly and stinging sharply when the timing is right.

Michael Debabrata Patra

September 15, 2025 at 3:21 AM IST

Via WikiCommons

Can India's Consumption Engine Outrun Trump's Trade Shock?

India is betting that tax relief will keep consumption strong even as tariffs squeeze exports. But policy follow-through may be the key.

Alok Kumar Mishra

Iti Vyas

September 11, 2025 at 8:39 AM IST

IStock/RealPictures

Global Trade Is Winning Trump's War On It

When it comes to tariffs, Trump’s bark has so far proven worse than his bite.

Daniel Gros

September 10, 2025 at 3:32 PM IST

iStock.com/MAGNIFIER

China's "Trump" Card

Xi used the SCO summit to pitch a sovereignty-first multipolar alternative to the Western-led order.

Ian Bremmer

September 10, 2025 at 3:12 PM IST

PMO

Why India Must File Amicus Brief in US Tariff Appeal

By remaining silent, India risks allowing Trump’s narrative to stand uncontested at the highest court in America.

Ajay Srivastava

September 10, 2025 at 10:07 AM IST

iStock.com

Preparing Indian Tech for Shifting US Tax Winds

Washington’s talk of a punitive levy on outsourcing may sound improbable, yet its impact would be immediate and profound for India’s technology sector.

Srinath Sridharan

September 10, 2025 at 7:07 AM IST

iStock.com/Kandarp Gupta

Trump Had to Blink, But What Next for India

Is India’s calm defiance of US tariffs a lesson in strategic patience, forcing Trump to soften his stance? Or the thaw is just the opening act in a tougher trade battle ahead?

Nilanjan Banik

September 9, 2025 at 10:41 AM IST

iStock.com/MAGNIFIER

India’s $10 Billion Textile Lifeline at Risk from Punitive US Tariffs

Trump’s tariff threats imperil India’s textile exports, endanger millions of jobs, and demand urgent domestic reform beyond stopgap incentives.

G. Chandrashekhar

September 9, 2025 at 8:18 AM IST

iStock.com

Trump Comes Calling with Trick or Treat, But Tweets Can’t Mend Fractures

The Trump-Modi camaraderie on social media may project warmth, but structural divergences and recent trade conflicts reveal its fragility.

Srinath Sridharan

September 8, 2025 at 10:41 AM IST

PIB

Trying to be a “Good Economist” in the Times of US Tariffs

Can tariffs be judged only by their visible impact? Bastiat’s wisdom suggests otherwise: true economists look beyond first effects to hidden costs, shifts, and long-term risks.

Vijay Chauhan

September 8, 2025 at 7:20 AM IST

White House/Via WikiCommons

Setting the Record Straight on Trump’s India Rant

While the US has a trade deficit of $45 billion with India, once all commercial earnings are counted, Washington runs a healthy $35–40 billion surplus.

Ajay Srivastava

September 2, 2025 at 6:15 AM IST

Gage Skidmore

The Morning Edge

Fed Debate, Tariff Jitters and Euro Data Shape Cautious Market Sentiment

Here’s your quick read to start the day: a chatty, no-fuss look at overnight moves, the big story, what’s on the docket, and the tickers you need to watch.

Richard Fargose

September 2, 2025 at 12:41 AM IST

Via WikiCommons

India’s Trade Playbook Exposed by Trump’s Tariff Shock

Trump’s fresh tariff blow exposes India’s risky over-dependence on key markets and imports, turning trade reliance into economic vulnerability.

G. Chandrashekhar

September 1, 2025 at 12:26 PM IST

White House

Nominal Weakness Tells the Real Story for RBI

Headline GDP growth flatters to deceive. Weak nominal expansion and tariff shocks mean the RBI must maintain an easing bias.

BasisPoint Insight

September 1, 2025 at 7:12 AM IST

iStock.com

The Global Economy Shrugged

Global growth has defied Trump’s sweeping tariffs, with households, firms, and markets adapting swiftly, leaving economists puzzled by the resilience.

Michael Debabrata Patra

September 1, 2025 at 5:35 AM IST

White House/Via WikiCommons

Why India Should Continue to Buy Oil from Russia

India’s Russian oil imports aren’t about cheap barrels—they’re about strategic autonomy. Stopping now could weaken India’s leverage between the US, China, and Russia.

TK Arun

August 30, 2025 at 9:20 AM IST

iStock.com

Setback for Trump Tariffs in US Court, Hope for Traders

The Supreme Court, expected to take up the case in the second half of October, will now decide whether Trump’s expansive reading of emergency power survives: GTRI

BasisPoint Insight

August 30, 2025 at 8:37 AM IST

Why India and China Will Struggle to Mend Relations

Despite new diplomatic gestures, can India and China truly reset ties when borders remain tense, Pakistan looms large, and trade imbalances keep mistrust alive?

Sanjay Pulipaka

August 30, 2025 at 5:03 AM IST

PMO

Indian Banks’ Capital Comfort to Face Twin Challenges

Can Indian banks sustain their capital strength once Basel’s Pillar-II and IND-AS 109 start demanding more?*

Rahul Ghosh

August 29, 2025 at 2:53 PM IST

Wladyslaw/ Via Wikicommon

Appeasing China Won't Help India Counter Trump

Past experience indicates that China is far more likely to exploit any hint of Indian weaknesses than act as a reliable partner.

Brahma Chellaney

August 29, 2025 at 1:33 PM IST

PMO/Via WikiCommons

India’s Economy Expands 7.8% in June Quarter, Highest in Five Quarters

India’s GDP grew 7.8% in April–June, the fastest in five quarters and above forecasts of 6.7–6.9%. Growth was led by services and investment, while mining and utilities remained weak.

BasisPoint Insight

August 29, 2025 at 12:07 PM IST

iStock.com

Which Sectors Will US Tariffs Hit Most and How to Brace for it

GTRI examines the scale and distribution of the impact across sectors, the potential GDP implications, and the strategic responses required.

Ajay Srivastava

August 26, 2025 at 4:17 PM IST

iStock.com/MAGNIFIER

Fitch Affirms India Rating Days After S&P Upgrade, Points to Tariff Risks

BasisPoint Insight

August 25, 2025 at 8:56 AM IST

Why India’s Trade Playbook Must Go Beyond Firefighting

As India faces a shifting US trade regime, the need for cushioning MSMEs and tackling non-tariff barriers immediately matters as much as shaping future trade rules.

Vijay Chauhan

August 25, 2025 at 6:55 AM IST

iStock.com

Tariffs, Stimulus and Stalled Earnings Weigh on India’s Markets

India’s markets face a rough ride as tariff wars collide with weak demand, policy trade-offs and fragile corporate performance.

Dhananjay Sinha

August 25, 2025 at 3:31 AM IST

Amey Bane/iStockphoto.com

Can India escape the middle-income trap?

India’s growth story is robust, yet escaping the middle-income trap will hinge on reforms, productivity gains and jobs for a swelling workforce.

Barendra Kumar Bhoi

Hemachandra Padhan

August 22, 2025 at 5:44 AM IST

iStock.com/Balaji Srinivasan

US, EU Framework Agreement on Trade and Lessons for India

New Delhi should push for similar carve-outs and flexibilities in CBAM and sustainability rules, especially to shield Indian SMEs and exporters from disproportionate costs.

Ajay Srivastava

August 22, 2025 at 4:55 AM IST

White House

A Stock-Market Crash Foretold

Why are US stocks soaring even as debt balloons, tariffs bite, and foreign investors lose faith in America’s fiscal credibility? Is Wall Street in denial, or bracing for the next big crash?

Desmond Lachman

August 21, 2025 at 12:58 PM IST

Damien VERRIER/iStock.com

Trump Should not TACO with India

Donald Trump’s tariff gambit may sting, but it has jolted India into delivering long-delayed reforms, underscoring resilience born of coercion.

Sangeeta Godbole

August 20, 2025 at 6:09 AM IST

Istock.com

Atmanirbhar Bharat: Between Slogan and Substance

Atmanirbhar Bharat has shown flashes of true resilience, yet risks sliding into protectionist déjà vu. India must decide if self-reliance means global ambition or insular retreat.

Duvvuri Subbarao

August 19, 2025 at 12:23 PM IST

iStock.com

India’s Bond Market Faces Harsh Reality as Fiscal Pressures Mount

GST rationalisation gives growth a fiscal lifeline but deepens deficit fears, leaving India’s bond market trapped in a “higher for longer” yield cycle.

Yield Scribe

August 19, 2025 at 4:00 AM IST

iStock.com

Trade Tangles Didn’t Take a Weekend Off

As India enjoyed a long weekend, Washington kept tightening the tariff screws, from steel to e-commerce, leaving partners scrambling for answers.

Vijay Chauhan

August 18, 2025 at 7:28 AM IST

Kremlin

The Many Winners of the Alaska Summit

At the Alaska Summit, Trump backed away from harsher Russia sanctions, aligning with Putin on lasting peace over ceasefire. This can shield India from bigger trade blows.

TK Arun

August 18, 2025 at 4:50 AM IST

Kremlin

GST Reset Faces Revenue and State Test

The Centre’s bold push for a two-slab GST by Diwali promises relief for households and MSMEs, but consensus with states and revenue arithmetic will be the real test.

Najib Shah

August 17, 2025 at 6:17 AM IST

iStock.com

Seven Possible Endgames for India in the US Tariff Standoff

India faces seven possible endgames in its tariff standoff with Washington. The right mix of negotiation and fortification could decide the long game.

Ajay Srivastava

August 15, 2025 at 10:02 AM IST

iStock.com

Modi Links Self-Reliance Push to Tariff Threat, Unveils Jobs, Tax Reforms

Modi unveils jobs, GST relief, and major security, energy, and tech plans, framing them as a tariff-proofing Swadeshi push.

BasisPoint Insight

August 15, 2025 at 4:34 AM IST

Screengrab (PIB)

The Morning Edge

US Budget Deficit Rises Nearly 20% Despite Tariff Revenue Boost

Here’s your quick read to start the day: a chatty, no-fuss look at overnight moves, the big story, what’s on the docket, and the tickers you need to watch.

Richard Fargose

August 13, 2025 at 1:38 AM IST

Sourav Mishra

Resist Tariff Pressure, But Do Reassess India’s Farm Competitiveness

Trump’s reciprocal tariffs are a shock test for Indian agriculture. India must defend its farm tariffs while using this moment to overhaul competitiveness and market access strategy.

K L Prasad

August 11, 2025 at 2:41 PM IST

Indo-US Relations and the Tariff War: Strategic Drift or Calculated Brinkmanship?

As global alignments shift and economic coercion replaces diplomacy, India faces a turbulent phase in its ties with the US

Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain (Retd)

August 10, 2025 at 11:53 AM IST

White House

India’s 1991 Moment, Phase Two: Trade Turbulence a Wake-Up Call

Trump’s tariff shock is no 1991 crisis, but it could be the trigger for deeper reforms in labour, land, and governance that India can no longer defer.

Kalyan Ram

August 7, 2025 at 9:36 AM IST

Istock.com

The Morning Edge

Trump Slaps India with 50% Tariff, Targets Foreign Chipmakers

Here’s your quick read to start the day: a chatty, no-fuss look at overnight moves, the big story, what’s on the docket, and the tickers you need to watch.

Richard Fargose

August 7, 2025 at 1:57 AM IST

White House

India Faces 25% More US Tariff for Russia Ties; GTRI Suggests Wait-and-Watch Approach

BasisPoint Insight

August 6, 2025 at 4:19 PM IST

Monetary Policy

RBI’s Growth Hopes Mask Limits of Policy Easing

The RBI’s optimism on growth belies structural weaknesses and hints that the impact of front-loaded rate cuts may already be waning.

Dhananjay Sinha

August 6, 2025 at 2:14 PM IST

Poonam Gupta

Sliding Rupee Turns Shock Absorber as US Tariffs Hit India

A weaker rupee cushions India’s exporters against Trump’s 25% tariffs, offering relief even as policy tools run thin.

Richard Fargose

August 5, 2025 at 3:30 PM IST

iStock/Pla2na

Trump Tariffs Have Entered the Test Arena. Here’s a Comeback Plan

India’s exports to the US may drop nearly 30% as steep tariffs bite across textiles, shrimp, jewellery and metals. Here’s a five-point action plan to mitigate the impact.

Ajay Srivastava

August 5, 2025 at 5:19 AM IST

Trump Tariffs: India Should Keep Calm and Carry On

It is best to introduce a cooling phase and get back to the negotiation table by striking a balance between the need for trade reforms and its economic and political sensitivities.

Vivek Kumar

August 5, 2025 at 5:16 AM IST

Govt Should Not Take Opposition’s Bait on Trump Tariffs, or Vocabulary

Trump’s tariffs and his choice of words may trigger loud politics, but the Indian government would be wiser to stay calm. Escalating tensions with Washington would not help at a time of fragile geopolitics.

Saibal Dasgupta

August 1, 2025 at 2:35 PM IST

Gage Skidmore/WikiCommons

Goods Tariffs are Manageable, But Services are India’s Real Risk

Trump’s goods tariffs will sting, but India’s real vulnerability lies in services – the sector that powers jobs, consumption and growth.

Chokkalingam G

August 1, 2025 at 4:22 AM IST

iStock.com/MAGNIFIER

Trump’s Stridency Pushes India Into Tougher Trade Terrain

India’s optimism for a soft landing on US tariffs may prove misplaced as oil, defence and BRICS politics deepen fault lines in talks with Washington.

Dhananjay Sinha

July 31, 2025 at 5:12 PM IST

White House

Why India Won’t Blink in the Face of US Trade Pressure

India’s restrained but resolute response to the US’s trade threats highlights its domestic resilience and its growing role in global value chains.

Sangeeta Godbole

July 31, 2025 at 4:15 PM IST

iStock.com

US Copper Tariffs May Hurt More Than Help; Limited Impact on India

US slaps 50% tariff on copper imports, aiming for security—but it may hurt US industry more than help. India sees limited impact.

BasisPoint Insight

July 31, 2025 at 9:34 AM IST

iStocks/sykono

India Must Turn Trump’s Tariff Blow into a Push for Manufacturing Reform

Trump’s new tariffs sting India’s exports, but the bigger fix lies at home in boosting manufacturing competitiveness and easing structural bottlenecks.

Nilanjan Banik

July 31, 2025 at 8:16 AM IST

iStock.com

Trump, Tariffs and the Timeless Tango of Greed

Trump’s tariffs reprise a centuries-old American habit — protectionism dressed as patriotism, ego wrapped as policy, and greed passing for strategy.

R. Gurumurthy

July 31, 2025 at 4:04 AM IST

White House

How Trump’s Tariff Tantrums Unfolded in 2025

Trump’s diplomacy by sledgehammer has a pattern: threaten, retreat, charm and repeat. His blunt message announcing tariffs on India followed the same imprint.

BasisPoint Insight

July 30, 2025 at 4:36 PM IST

White House

India Holds Its Ground as Others Bow to US Tariff Demands

The UK, EU, Japan, Indonesia and Vietnam secured tariff relief only after making sweeping concessions — zero tariffs on US farm goods, multi-billion-dollar investment pledges and large-scale purchases of oil, gas and arms.

BasisPoint Insight

July 30, 2025 at 3:33 PM IST

White House

‘Friend’ No More? Trump Hits India With Tariffs Over Russia, Trade Barriers

The US President said India would pay 25% tariff, plus a penalty, mainly for buying Russian oil and military equipment. He did not detail the scope of the extra levy.

BasisPoint Insight

July 30, 2025 at 12:46 PM IST

White House/Via WikiCommons

Powell Weighs Politics and Data as Trump Heat Clouds Fed’s Path

Political fire and mixed data frame this week’s Fed decision; Powell must hold the centre while keeping September easing firmly in play.

BasisPoint Groupthink

July 29, 2025 at 11:02 AM IST

White House

The Morning Edge

US-EU Trade Deal Sparks Risk-On Mood; Eyes Now on Central Banks

Here’s your quick read to start the day: a chatty, no-fuss look at overnight moves, the big story, what’s on the docket, and the tickers you need to watch.

Richard Fargose

July 28, 2025 at 1:56 AM IST

The White House

The Morning Edge

EU and US Edge Closer to 15% Tariff Deal as Brussels Readies Countermeasures

Here’s your quick read to start the day: a chatty, no-fuss look at overnight moves, the big story, what’s on the docket, and the tickers you need to watch.

Richard Fargose

July 24, 2025 at 1:47 AM IST

iStocks/querbeet

The Morning Edge

Trump Imposes 19% Tariff on Indonesia; EU Warns of Retaliation

A newsletter designed to prepare you for the day, offering a concise summary of overnight developments and key events ahead that could influence your workday.

Richard Fargose

July 16, 2025 at 1:22 AM IST

Tariffs and Earnings Slowdown Threaten India’s Market Rally

Relief rally is losing steam as Trump tariffs, slowing profits, and weak policy space cast a shadow over India’s market valuations.

Dhananjay Sinha

July 15, 2025 at 2:42 AM IST

iStock.com/ sreeyashlohiya

The Morning Edge

EU Warns of Retaliation as Trump Presses Fed, Tariff Tensions Rise

A newsletter designed to prepare you for the day, offering a concise summary of overnight developments and key events ahead that could influence your workday.

Richard Fargose

July 15, 2025 at 1:10 AM IST

iStock.com/MAGNIFIER

The Morning Edge

Trump Threatens New Tariffs on Mexico, EU as Fed Cautions Over Economic “Noise”

A newsletter designed to prepare you for the day, offering a concise summary of overnight developments and key events ahead that could influence your workday.

Richard Fargose

July 14, 2025 at 1:47 AM IST

Gage Skidmore

The Morning Edge

Trump Targets Canada with 35% Tariff; Bitcoin Surges to Record Highs

A newsletter designed to prepare you for the day, offering a concise summary of overnight developments and key events ahead that could influence your workday.

Richard Fargose

July 11, 2025 at 1:38 AM IST

The Morning Edge

Trump Slaps 50% Tariff on Copper, Targets Brazil

A newsletter designed to prepare you for the day, offering a concise summary of overnight developments and key events ahead that could influence your workday.

Richard Fargose

July 10, 2025 at 1:25 AM IST

The Morning Edge

Trump Clinches Tax Bill Win as Trade Deficit Widens and Global Tariff Letters Loom

A newsletter designed to prepare you for the day, offering a concise summary of overnight developments and key events ahead that could influence your workday.

Richard Fargose

July 4, 2025 at 1:25 AM IST

Trade Deal

Talks Enter Final Stretch, But India, US Hold Cards Close To The Chest

The July 8 deadline is significant. It marks the end of President Trump’s 90-day suspension of the “Liberation Day” country-specific tariffs, originally announced on April 2.

Ajay Srivastava

June 27, 2025 at 11:25 AM IST

White House

Promise The Moon, Then Blame The Stars

Cash-strapped states are hitting pause on promises. As expenses soar and income lags, India’s welfare politics faces a fiscal reckoning.

TK Arun

June 16, 2025 at 10:49 AM IST

AI Generated

Why Tariff Cuts On US Farm Goods Could Leave Scars

NITI Aayog’s paper suggests reducing tariffs on select US farm products. However, this could be a risky move, as tariffs locked in an FTA are difficult to raise later, even during global disruptions, price drops, or rural economic distress.

Ajay Srivastava

June 10, 2025 at 1:45 PM IST

AI generated

RBI Likely To Cut Rates Again As Inflation Benign, Trade Uncertainty Lingers

Most polls suggest the RBI may cut rates by 25 basis points for a third consecutive time on June 6.

BasisPoint Insight

June 4, 2025 at 9:43 AM IST

RBI Tweets

What Should be India’s Plan B as US Rejects Its Steel Tariff Challenge

India faces tough choices after the US rejected its WTO challenge on steel tariffs: pursue a legal fight, impose retaliatory duties, or seek a deal through ongoing FTA talks with Washington.

Ajay Srivastava

June 2, 2025 at 2:20 PM IST

India’s GDP Numbers Look Good—Too Good To Trust

The January–March data is stronger than expected, but deeper fault lines remain in consumption, private investment, and household incomes.

Dhananjay Sinha

June 1, 2025 at 12:58 PM IST

McKay Savage/Via Wikicommons

Trump’s Metal Cacophony: Indian Exporters May Face The Music

Trump doubles US steel, aluminium tariffs to 50%. Will India’s $4.56 bn metal exports take the hit or fight back? Retaliation looms as global trade tensions resurface.

Ajay Srivastava

June 1, 2025 at 8:31 AM IST

iStock.com

Trump’s Tariff Wall Crumbles Under Legal And Global Pressure

A federal court ruling undercuts Trump's tariff gambit, exposing legal overreach and prompting aggressive pushback from global trade partners.

Nilanjan Banik

May 29, 2025 at 2:06 PM IST

Why India Shouldn’t Rush To Seal Trade Deal With US

With Trump tariffs ruled illegal, India must reassess its strategy for trade talks and avoid one-sided concessions shaped by unlawful US pressure.

Ajay Srivastava

May 29, 2025 at 7:20 AM IST

Where Is US Economic Policy Taking Us?

As the US and others push the limits on debt and deficits, the bond vigilantes have been roused from their slumber. In the process, traditional US equity-bond-currency correlations have been undermined.

Mohamed A. El-Erian

May 28, 2025 at 4:29 AM IST

India Better Positioned Amid Global Trade Turbulence, Says Moody’s

India’s strong domestic economy and services sector help cushion it against US tariffs and global trade shocks.

BasisPoint Insight

May 21, 2025 at 4:01 AM IST

iStock.com/MAGNIFIER

US-China deal

Trump Touts Paper Victory; India’s Supply Chain Moment At Risk

While low-investment assembly operations may linger in India for now, deeper manufacturing—the kind that builds real industrial ecosystems—may stall or even return to China, says GTRI.

BasisPoint Insight

May 12, 2025 at 2:55 PM IST

Trump Tariff On Foreign Films: The Reel Trouble Has Just Begun

Trump’s latest plot twist is 100% tariff on foreign films, because nothing says ‘Made in America’ like economic chaos in Dolby Surround.

Vijay Chauhan

May 7, 2025 at 1:59 AM IST

Uncertainty, Not Inventory, Is Hurting The American Economy

There is more than just excessive imports behind the American economy's contraction in January–March. And it may be a portent.

TK Arun

May 6, 2025 at 7:40 AM IST

Becker1999/ Via Wiki Commons

Don’t Show The Other Cheek—India Must Push Back On US Trade Pressure

Trump dubbed India the “tariff king” first in 2019, then kept the crown insults coming in his second term. But there’s method to the madness: spin the story, steal a better bargain.

Ajay Srivastava

May 4, 2025 at 1:43 PM IST

Gage Skidmore/CC

Trump And The Triumph Of The Technolords

Yanis Varoufakis

May 1, 2025 at 5:18 AM IST

Chaos Theory, Entropy And The Financial System

While chaos theory explains the unpredictable behaviour of the markets, entropy suggests that the markets will ultimately reach a new equilibrium at a higher level of disorder.

R. Gurumurthy

April 30, 2025 at 6:16 AM IST

Seoane Prado/Via WikiCommons

Private Capex Is Faltering, And Global Fragmentation May Be To Blame

India’s first forward-looking capex survey shows a sharp fall in 2025-26 plans, exposing demand worries and rising global trade uncertainty.

Dhananjay Sinha

April 30, 2025 at 5:26 AM IST

iStock.com/Technical Bhadresh

Europe and China Must Unite Against Trump’s Trade Assault

Despite its economic costs, Trump’s global tariff war offers Europe a chance to establish itself as a mediator and defender of multilateralism in an increasingly multipolar world.

Marcel Fratzscher

April 27, 2025 at 4:29 AM IST

Becker1999/ Via Wiki Commons

India, US Very Close To Trade Deal, Says US Treasury Secretary

BasisPoint Insight

April 25, 2025 at 4:19 AM IST

Hedging the New Uncertainty

In today’s world, investors cannot rely only on level-one hedges. They need to consider what level of protection they need for level-two and level-three scenarios.

Dambisa Moyo

April 24, 2025 at 5:44 PM IST

iStock.com

For Export To US, Make In India Has To Truly Be Made In India

To benefit from US tariffs and boost exports, Indian firms must go beyond surface-level assembly and meet stringent Rules of Origin norms.

Ajay Srivastava

April 24, 2025 at 3:57 PM IST

India’s Tariff Capital Is Its Best Bargaining Chip Yet

India's high tariffs, long seen as a liability, may now be its strongest card in reshaping trade deals amid Trump's tariff offensive.

Vivek Johri

April 24, 2025 at 8:36 AM IST

Time for EU Bonds to Shine

There is a compelling case for capitalising on current opportunity to issue many more common bonds, and to roll over existing EU debt as it matures.

Philippe Legrain

April 23, 2025 at 4:14 AM IST

iStock.com/filmfoto

Offscript Weekly: Of Worlds Colliding & Worlds Expanding

Farewell in Rome, fireworks at Harvard, music in space—Offscript Weekly dives into a world brimming with conflict, irony, and cosmic lift-off.

Ranjana Chauhan

April 22, 2025 at 9:04 AM IST

RBI Can Undertake Unprecedented Interest Rate Easing – If It Wants To

With the convenient definitions of real rate and potential growth, the RBI can justify deeper rate cuts than anyone currently expects.

Basis Pundit

April 21, 2025 at 8:51 AM IST

India’s Bond Market Needs A Big Bang Reform Now

Trump’s tariff chaos has unsettled US bonds. India must seize this moment to reform its debt market and revive private infrastructure play.

TK Arun

April 19, 2025 at 6:18 AM IST

Can California Save Global Trade? The Ball Is In Courts’ Court

California challenges Trump in court, questioning the President’s power to impose tariffs without Congress—could this redefine executive authority?

Rajesh Mahapatra

April 17, 2025 at 10:55 AM IST

Becker1999/ Via Wiki Commons

The Real Cost Of Trump’s Tariff Theatrics

Behind Trump’s tariff drama lies a familiar pattern of politics over policy. Is it already destined to doom?

Manoj Rane

April 17, 2025 at 6:08 AM IST

Indian Small-Item Producers Can Get A Toehold In US, With Some Handholding

China doesn’t ship just smartphones and computers to the US. It exports nearly $150 billion worth of small goods every year. Many of these are also made in India.

Ajay Srivastava

April 16, 2025 at 10:50 AM IST

Can a Global Trade War Be Avoided?

Trump’s tariff pause offers a chance to avert global trade war. If the EU acts wisely, the damage could be contained—mainly to the US itself.

Daniel Gros

April 15, 2025 at 4:32 AM IST

Becker1999/ Via Wiki Commons

Volatility In US Markets Is Here To Stay

The spell of QE cast by the Fed is still being fuelled by leverage, foreign capital, and investor psychology.

Sandeep Kumar

April 14, 2025 at 12:48 PM IST

Damien VERRIER/iStock.com

Trump’s Tactical Retreat May Deepen the Tariff Trap

The US President’s 90-day tariff climb-down masks a sharper focus on China, but his multifront trade war risks pushing America deeper into a bind.

Dhananjay Sinha

April 14, 2025 at 4:47 AM IST

Don’t Fix Market Volatility; It’s A Feature, Not A Bug

Investors who obsess over the exact turning point miss the deeper truth: in uncertain times, success depends less on timing and more on temperament.

Krishnadevan V

April 14, 2025 at 3:45 AM IST

Opinion

Trump Tariffs Make Americans ‘Yippy’, And China Goes ‘Yippee’

The trade war helps China come out as the more stable, respectable and respectful superpower

TK Arun

April 11, 2025 at 2:05 PM IST

iStock.com/Rawf8

Moody’s Analytics Slashes India’s 2025 Growth Outlook by 30 Bps Amid External Headwinds

BasisPoint Insight

April 10, 2025 at 1:13 PM IST

Trump Pauses Reciprocal Tariff, Maintains Baseline At 10%; Trains Guns On China

The US has paused its harsh reciprocal tariffs for 90 days—except for China, now facing a steep 125% tariff. Markets responded with a sharp rally.

BasisPoint Insight

April 9, 2025 at 6:12 PM IST

Gage Skidmore

RBI’s Quiet Confidence Lets Markets Set The Rupee’s Course

As global currencies wobble under tariff pressures, the RBI is betting on India’s fundamentals to anchor the rupee—and avoiding panic interventions.

Richard Fargose

April 9, 2025 at 4:35 PM IST

Monetary Policy

RBI’s Optimism Hinges On Questionable Insular Assumptions

Despite warning of trade risks, the central bank proceeds as if India’s economy exists in a vacuum

Dhananjay Sinha

April 9, 2025 at 1:54 PM IST

India’s Soft Power Can’t Plug A Hard Trade Hole

Services exports and remittances have held up. That doesn't mean India is shielded from China’s export onslaught.

BasisPoint Groupthink

April 9, 2025 at 12:41 PM IST

iStock.com/MAGNIFIER

Monetary Policy

RBI Chooses Growth Over Inflation As Tariff War Clouds Intensify

The RBI’s shift to an accommodative stance signals a growth-first approach, but its crisis response still feels too mild for the storm brewing.

Abheek Barua

April 9, 2025 at 7:46 AM IST

Anurag Vijay/CC

Regulatory Dialectics And The Purpose Of Financial Regulation

Bank regulations meant to prevent bank failures often risk becoming counterproductive. The Titanic analogy might be apt—but it's the Eastland syndrome we should be worried about.

R. Gurumurthy

April 9, 2025 at 4:17 AM IST

Navigating The Trump Storm

The largest impact is likely to be on the US owing to its growing isolation from the rest of the global economy.

Michael Spence

April 8, 2025 at 4:59 PM IST

Tariffs Are Just A Symptom, Not the Real Story

Ray Dalio argues that markets are missing the deeper breakdowns behind today’s noisy trade headlines.

BasisPoint Insight

April 8, 2025 at 1:04 PM IST

Americans Can't Win From Trump's Trade War

The White House’s explanation of how it set the new tariff rates was based on unfounded premises and wrong assumptions.

Nancy Qian

April 8, 2025 at 3:18 AM IST

Global Trade Tensions Jolt Indian Equities, Trigger Sharpest Decline In 10 Months

BasisPoint Insight

April 7, 2025 at 10:41 AM IST

India Stares At $5.8 Billion Hit in 2025 From Trump Tariffs

GTRI's calculation is based on assessment of India’s existing export the US, the magnitude of tariff hikes, and the comparative tariffs faced by major competing countries.

BasisPoint Insight

April 7, 2025 at 10:30 AM IST

Monetary Policy

RBI Should Be The Front Soldier After Trump Trade Shock

A seismic tariff shock from the US on April 9 could hijack India’s economic prospects. While this requires a strategic government intervention for risk mitigation, the RBI must be the front soldier to safeguard growth.

Vivek Kumar

April 6, 2025 at 7:59 AM IST

Trump, Tariffs, And The Fate Of The Dollar

Free trade seems to be off the menu for both Republicans and Democrats. The reason for this bipartisan embrace concerns the global role of the dollar in promoting structural trade imbalances.

Mark Blyth

April 4, 2025 at 5:26 PM IST

What Drives Trump's Madness

One has to identify the specific bee in Trump’s bonnet that is driving his tariff offensive to fashion an effective policy response.

TK Arun

April 4, 2025 at 1:48 PM IST

Gage Skidmore

Monetary Policy

Reciprocal Tariffs: Brace For Impact

Should the RBI and indeed all central banks see the current situation as primarily an inflation problem or a growth problem?

Abheek Barua

April 4, 2025 at 7:44 AM IST

Trump’s Tariff Shock Revives Mercantilism, Endangers Global Trade

Trump’s tariff blitz may hit India harder than expected, choking trade, compressing earnings, and testing the limits of domestic policy.

Dhananjay Sinha

April 4, 2025 at 6:36 AM IST

Bilateralism Trumps Multilateralism As US Resets Trade Terms

Bilateral deals, particularly after an open invitation from US President Donald Trump, will create huge global uncertainty.

Sandeep Kumar

April 4, 2025 at 4:29 AM IST

India’s GDP and inflation set to fall after US tariff shock

BasisPoint Insight

April 4, 2025 at 3:39 AM IST

India’s Muted Response To US Tariffs Contrasts With Global Assertiveness

India’s restrained response to US tariffs contrasts with China’s assertive tone and EU warnings. New Delhi offers optics, not direction.

BasisPoint Groupthink

April 3, 2025 at 1:11 PM IST

Explainer

India Likely to Gain from Trump’s Tariff Overhaul

Trump’s new tariffs hit Asia hard—but India escapes the worst. A GTRI explainer shows how this could reboot Indian exports and supply chains.

Ajay Srivastava

April 3, 2025 at 4:20 AM IST

Trump Declares Trade Emergency, Slaps New Tariffs On All Imports

The move, which takes effect April 5, marks one of the most aggressive interventions in global commerce by any US president in modern times.

BasisPoint Insight

April 3, 2025 at 3:32 AM IST

India Singled Out In Trump’s Escalating Tariff crusade

A fresh round of US tariffs singles out India with 27% duties, reigniting tensions and leaving negotiations adrift amid growing trade friction.

BasisPoint Groupthink

April 3, 2025 at 2:45 AM IST

The Morning Edge: Global Markets Reel as Trump Unleashes "Worst-Case Scenario" Trade War

A newsletter designed to prepare you for the day, offering a concise summary of overnight developments and key events ahead that could influence your workday.

Richard Fargose

April 3, 2025 at 1:21 AM IST

Advance Ruling

Quest For Certainty In An Uncertain Trade Scenario

In view of anticipated greater uncertainty due to reciprocal tariff or bilateral trade agreement, it is expected that trade may opt for greater recourse to advance rulings.

Vijay Chauhan

April 2, 2025 at 7:16 AM IST

India Keeps Fingers Crossed Ahead Of Trump’s Reciprocal Tariffs

It's uncertain whether the tariffs would be implemented uniformly, applied separately to agricultural and industrial goods, or levied at a more granular level.

BasisPoint Groupthink

April 1, 2025 at 10:53 AM IST

Gage Skidmore/CC

US Trade Report Expects The Moon From India

India is not opposed to reform or global cooperation, but any engagement must be fair, reciprocal, and respect its sovereignty.

Ajay Srivastava

April 1, 2025 at 8:21 AM IST

Trump’s Latest Salvo May Be An Opportunity For Indian Automobile Sector

Trump’s latest tariffs may have limited impact on India’s automobile industry; New Delhi must look at it as an opportunity.

Ajay Srivastava

March 27, 2025 at 8:18 AM IST

Gage Skidmore

US-India Trade Talks: Tariffs, Tactics And The Ticking Clock

With an April 2 deadline looming, US and Indian trade negotiators race to strike a deal. Can they navigate tariffs, non-tariff barriers, and competing priorities to avoid a trade war?

Vijay Chauhan

March 27, 2025 at 7:17 AM IST

US May Demand More Than Its Pound Of Flesh In FTA Talks With India

Why getting an FTA ratified won’t be easy, and how its implementation could trigger Trump’s tariff tantrums in full force.

Ajay Srivastava

March 26, 2025 at 5:41 AM IST

Gage Skidmore/CC

Goodbye, Mr Greenback?

For long, the status of the dollar has given the US the “exorbitant privilege” of being unconstrained by its external balances.

Abheek Barua

March 24, 2025 at 3:12 AM IST

baona/iStock.com

Reciprocity Is Key To India’s Talks With EU On Medical Devices

The EU has zero customs duties, but market entry costs are significant because of its stringent regulatory framework.

Ajay Srivastava

March 20, 2025 at 5:06 AM IST

iStock.com/stefanamer

US Fed Holds Rates Steady Amid Economic Uncertainty, Maintains 2025 Rate Cut Forecast

The Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady for a second consecutive meeting as officials balanced concerns over slowing economic growth against the risk of persistent inflation.

Richard Fargose

March 20, 2025 at 12:49 AM IST

Explainer

Why Is The Indian Finance Minister Hinting At A GST Reduction Now?

India's GST rethink comes amid economic headwinds. Will a tax cut be enough to counter slowing demand and US tariffs? A deeper look.

Alok Kumar Mishra

March 11, 2025 at 6:13 AM IST

Nothing Should Be Off The Table, Not Even Withdrawing From US Trade Talks

US wants India to lower tariffs while protecting its own. New Delhi must push back with a fair, strategic trade deal—on its own terms.

Ajay Srivastava

March 8, 2025 at 4:51 AM IST

The Morning Edge: Trump Tariff, Canada-China retaliates

A newsletter designed to prepare you for the day, offering a concise summary of overnight developments and key events ahead that could influence your workday.

Richard Fargose

March 5, 2025 at 1:43 AM IST

Market Digest

Trump’s Tariff War Triggers Nifty 50’s Record Losing Streak

An end of the day recap of all that transpired in the Indian markets today, highlighting the major price movements and the factors driving them

Richard Fargose

March 4, 2025 at 1:29 PM IST

India’s Tariff Dilemma Under Trump 2.0 — Retaliate, Appease Or Pivot?

Trade wars rarely have heroes. With Trump targeting India’s tariffs, the smartest move may be neither fight nor flight — but patience.

Ajay Srivastava

March 2, 2025 at 2:57 PM IST

The Morning Edge: New Trump Tariff, Third-Quarter GDP, New SEBI Chief

A newsletter designed to prepare you for the day, offering a concise summary of overnight developments and key events ahead that could influence your workday.

Richard Fargose

February 28, 2025 at 1:48 AM IST

The Morning Edge -Trump Tariffs, FOMC Minutes

A newsletter designed to prepare you for the day, offering a concise summary of overnight developments and key events ahead that could influence your workday.

Richard Fargose

February 19, 2025 at 1:47 AM IST

How Trump’s Anti-Globalism Could Backfire

Trump's tariff-driven economic strategy clashes with America's reliance on foreign capital, risking a debt crisis if global investors pull back. Protectionism, market instability, and retaliatory policies could undermine Trump's promised economic revival.

Harold James

January 31, 2025 at 6:49 AM IST