OIS Curve Prices in Rate Hike by December on Persistent West Asia Worries

Srijita Bose

Nandinee Keluskar

July 24, 2026 at 8:25 AM IST

El Nino Once Again Exposes Gaps in Irrigation Strategy

India needs to focus on a long-term irrigation and crop strategy at both the centre and state level if it needs to break the cycle of being held hostage to the monsoon each year.

Sharmila Kantha

July 7, 2026 at 6:27 AM IST

istock.com

Rupee Nears Another Goldilocks Phase as External Risks Recede

Falling crude prices, stronger capital inflows and RBI measures are easing pressure on the rupee, setting the stage for a more stable USD/INR outlook.

Gaura Sen Gupta

June 30, 2026 at 5:58 AM IST

istock.com

Between Certainty and Chaos Lies the Business of Being Human

As policymakers, businesses and markets navigate an increasingly fragmented world, every difficult choice becomes a lesson in trust, resilience and uncertainty.

Phynix

June 29, 2026 at 5:26 AM IST

US Fed

Week in Numbers: Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

High-frequency indicators pointed to a significant slowdown in growth in May. However, with the ceasefire between the US and Iran holding and energy prices easing, growth is likely to improve in the coming months.

Datametricx

June 28, 2026 at 12:23 PM IST

istock.com

Monetary Policy's New Catch-22

With consumer inflation appearing repressed despite mounting price pressures, the RBI's decision to prioritise capital inflows over rate hikes carries growing risks.

Rupa Rege Nitsure

June 8, 2026 at 5:26 AM IST

Istock.com

RBI Holds Rates, Keeps Neutral Stance as Inflation Risks Rise

The central bank raised its inflation forecast and lowered its GDP projection as policymakers assessed the impact of higher energy prices, supply-chain disruptions and monsoon-related risks.

BasisPoint Insight

June 5, 2026 at 5:30 AM IST

Istock.com

Week in Numbers: Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

The Indian economy appears to be bracing for another setback, with the weather bureau projecting southwest monsoon rainfall in 2026 at 90% of the long-period average, the lowest since 2015.

Datametricx

May 30, 2026 at 10:42 AM IST

India’s Monsoon Risk is Really an Inflation and Rural Demand Test

Below-normal rain, El Niño and heatwaves could turn India’s monsoon into a test of food inflation, crop resilience and rural demand.

Sakshi Gupta

May 30, 2026 at 5:54 AM IST

iStock.com

Economic Review Flags Supply Risks as India Faces a Harder Inflation Test

The latest economic review signals resilience, but supply disruptions may soon test growth, inflation, and policy tools in ways that demand management cannot offset.

BasisPoint Groupthink

April 30, 2026 at 6:12 AM IST

Istock.com

El Nino Tests Kharif and India’s Farm Economy

A weak monsoon threat amid El Nino risks could hit Kharif output, widen import dependence and strain rural incomes, testing policy preparedness.

G. Chandrashekhar

April 29, 2026 at 9:00 AM IST

iStock.com

Voltas Blue Star Best Geared to Outperform in an El Niño Year

El Niño-led heat and a weak monsoon set up a demand upcycle, with Voltas and Blue Star positioned to gain share as pricing power holds and margins expand from a low base

Dhananjay Sinha

April 28, 2026 at 9:18 AM IST

iStock.com

Deferred Fuel Price Reset Could Reprice India’s Inflation Path

Post-election fuel hikes risk setting off a staggered inflation cycle, with delayed pass-through, margin stress and tighter policy trade-offs.

Dhananjay Sinha

April 23, 2026 at 5:16 AM IST

iStock.com

IMD Sees Below-Normal Monsoon Rains for 2026; Rainfall Likely at 92% of Average

BasisPoint Insight

April 13, 2026 at 12:26 PM IST

Rural India’s Twin Shock Tests Policy Resilience

A weak monsoon and rising input costs risk squeezing rural incomes, lifting inflation, and complicating policy trade-offs in 2026.

Dhananjay Sinha

April 13, 2026 at 3:04 AM IST

iStock.com

Week in Numbers: Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

High-frequency indicators in December pointed to some improvement in urban demand, even as rural demand continued to outpace it.

Datametricx

January 10, 2026 at 12:46 PM IST

Istock.com

Week in Numbers: Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

Notwithstanding the robust growth reported in the latest GDP numbers, high-frequency indicators point to anaemic momentum in industrial activity.

Datametricx

December 27, 2025 at 11:39 AM IST

istock.com

Week in Numbers: Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

India’s merchandise exports declined in October, as expected, but the weakness extended beyond the impact of US import tariffs.

Datametricx

November 22, 2025 at 8:16 AM IST

iStock.com

Week in Numbers: Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

Early data suggest a sharp uptick in demand in October following GST rate cuts — but can it last? E-way bills suggest otherwise.

Datametricx

November 8, 2025 at 8:33 AM IST

istocks.com

Week in Numbers: Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

India’s industrial growth more than doubled in the July-September quarter, but remained well below the expansion signalled by the PMI.

Datametricx

November 1, 2025 at 7:57 AM IST

Week in Numbers: Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

Early October data showed no significant boost in private-sector activity, even though the full impact of the GST rate cuts had taken effect.

Datametricx

October 25, 2025 at 2:28 AM IST

Indian Navy

Week in Numbers: Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

With GST rate cuts coming into effect and a significant statistical base effect in play, India’s inflation indicators are likely to move toward deflation in October.

Datametricx

October 18, 2025 at 12:45 PM IST

istock.com/natbits

Week in Numbers – Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

There are early signs that the GST rate cuts are beginning to filter through the system. E-way bills in September and automobile sales during the Navaratri week indicate a promising start.

Datametricx

October 12, 2025 at 2:17 PM IST

Briefing

Fed Vs RBI: How They Differ in Monetary Policy, Rates, Inflation Targeting

Inside the Fed and RBI: Why Two Central Banks See Inflation and Growth Differently

Babuji K

October 11, 2025 at 4:44 AM IST

iStock.com

Week in Numbers – Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

Not withstanding the government’s confidence, the fiscal situation appears under pressure due to income tax cuts in the Budget and GST rationalisation.

Datametricx

October 6, 2025 at 11:56 AM IST

iStock.com

Kharif Crop Prospects Satisfactory Overall, Risks from Excess Rainfall Remain

It is important to note that the total seasonal rainfall is not as critical as its temporal and spatial distribution, which are crucial for agriculture.

G. Chandrashekhar

September 29, 2025 at 1:15 PM IST

iStock.com

Week in Numbers – Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

The sharp jump in core sector output in August has raised hopes of stronger industrial growth during the month, following a string of anaemic readings.

Datametricx

September 29, 2025 at 7:15 AM IST

Via WikiCommons

Week in Numbers – Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

Despite a sharp rebound in income tax collections last month, concerns remain about meeting this year’s ambitious direct tax target.

Datametricx

September 22, 2025 at 9:58 AM IST

Finance Ministry

Week in Numbers – Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

With retail inflation trending below projections, GST rate cuts, potential Fed easing, and US tariffs weighing on India’s growth, the window for an RBI rate cut in December may be opening.

Datametricx

September 15, 2025 at 4:27 AM IST

iStock.com

Week in Numbers – Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

The GST reforms, slowdown in tax collections and the likely sops to protect the export sector from the US tariffs are likely to put pressure on government finances this year.

Datametricx

September 8, 2025 at 9:48 AM IST

Finance Ministry

Week in Numbers – Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

The divergence between Indian PMIs and hard data has rarely been wider, with the two indicators pointing in opposite ends.

BasisPoint Insight

August 25, 2025 at 11:42 AM IST

iStock.com

Monetary Policy

RBI’s Growth Hopes Mask Limits of Policy Easing

The RBI’s optimism on growth belies structural weaknesses and hints that the impact of front-loaded rate cuts may already be waning.

Dhananjay Sinha

August 6, 2025 at 2:14 PM IST

Poonam Gupta

India’s Recovery Plan Is Missing Its Fiscal Half

While the RBI has acted to support growth, the Finance Ministry’s virtual silence since the Budget leaves policy looking oddly one-handed.

Dhananjay Sinha

Kalyan Ram

July 20, 2025 at 6:52 AM IST

Govt Gets Pragmatic About Crop Production, Lower Aim For Kharif 2025-26

Pulses, oilseeds, and cotton crops have struggled with production challenges over the past few years, with harvests falling short of targets and leading to supply shortages.

G. Chandrashekhar

July 3, 2025 at 12:49 PM IST

iStock.com

Monsoon Mask Fails to Hide India’s Industrial Demand Weakness

June’s industrial slump goes beyond weather disruptions, exposing deeper cracks in consumer demand that policymakers cannot ignore.

BasisPoint Groupthink

July 2, 2025 at 12:55 PM IST

iStock.com

Early Monsoon Tempers Output, But Macro Signals Turn Upbeat

The early onset of the monsoon has brightened agricultural prospects and improved the inflation outlook, even as it appears to have weighed on industrial growth. Other sectors have shown resilience, and early indicators from June point to a recovery.

BasisPoint Groupthink

June 27, 2025 at 3:01 PM IST

istocks/ABHISHEK KUMAR SAH

The Monsoon’s Early Promise Is Not Yet A Policy Comfort

Monsoon’s early onset lifted hopes for growth and inflation, but its pause may call for policy caution as rainfall deficits widen.

BasisPoint Groupthink

June 10, 2025 at 9:43 AM IST

iStock.com

Predictability Of Weather Has Reduced

IMD’s Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra With Rajesh Mahapatra

Rajesh Mahapatra

June 3, 2025 at 6:55 AM IST

Offscript Weekly: Skies That Roar, Stories That Soothe

A week of wild weather, economic milestones, global rollercoasters, AI avatars in boardrooms – anchored by a quiet and bright Heart Lamp from Karnataka.

Ranjana Chauhan

May 27, 2025 at 1:13 PM IST

iStock.com

Early Onset No Guarantee For A Good Monsoon

Monsoon’s early arrival has raised hopes of a strong season. But history shows that an early onset is no assurance of normal rainfall—2009 being a stark reminder.

BasisPoint Groupthink

May 26, 2025 at 11:42 AM IST

iStock.com

IMD Sees Southwest Monsoon Rains At 105% Of Normal in 2025

BasisPoint Insight

April 15, 2025 at 10:27 AM IST

IMD’s Monsoon Forecasts: Feeling Under The Weather

IMD’s monsoon forecasts miss the mark most of the time. Can India’s economy weather unreliable predictions?

BasisPoint Groupthink

April 5, 2025 at 11:28 AM IST

iStock.com/AROYBARMAN

The Bureau

Oil Volatility Lifts Bond Yields; Equities Extend Gains, Rupee Steady

Split vote exposes growing inflation divide as Fed holds rates

DGFT's Restriction on Import of PVC Resin Will Raise Cost

Singapore Tightens, Indonesia Faces a Test

RBI Governor says FCNR(B) Inflow $32 Billion Since June Measures; Gilt Inflows Top $7 Billion: Report

US Reduces Tariff on India to 10%, Replaces Section 122 Tariffs with Permanent Forced-Labour Duties

India Relaxes E-commerce FDI Rules, Marks First Step Towards Inventory-Based Model

OIS Curve Prices in Rate Hike by December on Persistent West Asia Worries

The Foster Mother of Lodhi Garden