The RBI’s Familiar Dilemma Returns as Its Liquidity Cushion Wears Thin

The RBI’s dollar inflow measures bought some relief, but rising oil prices and a shrinking cash surplus along with rising bond yields are reviving difficult policy trade-offs

Yashveer Singh

October 22, 2026 at 6:56 AM IST

Nirmala Sitharaman, Retail Investors and the Great Indian Wealth Transfer

Are India’s retail investors powering a great wealth transfer, giving FIIs and promoters an easy exit at rich valuations while also adding pressure on the rupee?

Vivek Kaul

October 21, 2026 at 3:07 AM IST

PIB

Does RBI Need to Mount an Interest Rate Defence of Rupee, Again?

Forward foreign exchange market implied interest rates are already at punitive levels, curbing the need for an MSF hike to tackle rupee speculation; MPC could consider a 50 bps hike in December meeting to ensure real policy rates do not turn negative as inflation picks up to close to 6%

Abhishek Upadhyay

October 19, 2026 at 3:19 AM IST

istock.com

Restoring Monetary Balance: The Case for Calibrated Tightening

October policy action reflects a forward-looking response to widening inflation, unfinished cost pass-through and a narrowing real-rate cushion.

Sparsh Chhabra

October 16, 2026 at 7:22 AM IST

istock.com

RBI’s Liquidity Lever Could Deliver More Tightening Without a Sharp Repo Hike

As surplus liquidity drains, SBI Research sees scope for an interim MSF rate hike to tighten funding conditions before a December repo-rate increase.

Richard Fargose

October 16, 2026 at 5:30 AM IST

istock.com

RBI Tightens Rupee NDF Rules, Extends 20% Cash FX Risk Reserve to Banks' Hedges

BasisPoint Insight

October 13, 2026 at 4:05 AM IST

iStock.com

RBI’s FX Barricades Expose the Limits of Borrowed Stability

The RBI’s $143 billion swap mobilisation has failed to ease rupee pressure. Fresh currency controls reveal the limits of debt-funded reserves

Dhananjay Sinha

October 13, 2026 at 2:27 AM IST

istock.com

MPC Review

A Terminal Repo Rate of 6% Should Be Enough, for Now

A 6% terminal rate may suffice if core inflation is contained, but surplus liquidity and the risk of cost pass-through complicate the RBI’s task.

Sameer Narang

October 7, 2026 at 12:59 PM IST

MPC Review

A Pragmatic Hike With a Hawkish Tail

With price pressures broadening and growth holding up, attention turns to liquidity and expectations. How will oil, the rupee and global yields shape the decisions still to come?

Radhika Piplani

October 7, 2026 at 11:43 AM IST

RBI

MPC Review

RBI Rate Hike Cycle Starts; How Far Can It Go?

Inflation pressures are rising and resilient growth provides the RBI with the space to respond. However, the path ahead remains conditional.

Sakshi Gupta

October 7, 2026 at 9:56 AM IST

Istock.com

RBI to Use Appropriate Mix of Liquidity Tools, Align WACR with Repo Rate

BasisPoint Insight

October 7, 2026 at 5:19 AM IST

MPC Preview

RBI Needs More Than a Rate Hike to Tighten Policy

A 25-basis-point hike needs calibrated liquidity absorption to work, with flexible tools taking priority and CRR only as a temporary last resort.

Kanika Pasricha*

October 6, 2026 at 3:57 AM IST

istock.com

In Conversation

One Rate Hike, Two Views on the RBI MPC’s Next Move

Gaura Sen Gupta and Dhiraj Nim quiz each other on how far the RBI should raise rates, drain liquidity, and follow the Fed as inflation risks build.

BasisPoint Insight

October 6, 2026 at 3:22 AM IST

Dhiraj Nim and Gaura Sen Gupta

The Cost That Falls Either Way: How India Should Deploy Its Liquidity Surplus

India’s FCNR-driven liquidity surplus leaves the RBI deciding where sterilisation costs should fall, even as banks face growing incentives to move excess reserves into credit.

Anil Katia

October 1, 2026 at 9:16 AM IST

istock.com

The Twin Liquidity Deficits and India’s Equity Market

India’s secondary market is under stress as investors are choosing short-term gains in IPOs over long-term investments in listed stocks.

Chokkalingam G

October 1, 2026 at 9:13 AM IST

Istock.com

Bond Markets Enter the MPC With More Than the Next Rate Hike at Stake

Carry losses, divergent rate expectations and supply pressures leave bond investors weighing more than the next repo move ahead of the MPC.

Yield Scribe

September 30, 2026 at 3:17 AM IST

Screengrab

Masterclass with Michael Patra

The Pipes: Monetary Policy Transmission

Setting the repo rate is only the start. Michael Patra explains how monetary policy reaches the economy, and what gets lost along the way.

Michael Debabrata Patra

September 25, 2026 at 3:32 AM IST

iStock.com

Tokenisation Can Fix Bond Plumbing. It Cannot Create Liquidity

SEBI's Demat 2.0 pilot can modernise how corporate bonds settle, but deeper markets will depend on broader participation, price discovery and risk-taking capital.

Amit Sinha

September 23, 2026 at 5:00 AM IST

iStock.com

After the Swap Window: Managing What the Rupee Rescue Has Left Behind

Record reserves have not lifted the rupee, and the RBI's FCNR(B) window has left a liquidity surplus and a repayment schedule to be managed. Emergency windows should run on rules fixed before they open.

Arvind Mayaram

September 21, 2026 at 5:47 AM IST

iStock.com

Why ALM, Not Just NIM, Matters for the Future of Bank Profitability

NIM is the only visible outcome of a bank’s ALM strategy. As lending rates evolve, transparent pricing and risk management will shape sustainable margins.

K. Srinivasa Rao

September 15, 2026 at 6:05 AM IST

Highlights of RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra's comments in an interview

Team BasisPoint

September 11, 2026 at 12:55 PM IST

RBI to Sell ₹1 trillion of gilts in September as liquidity absorption shifts to OMO

BasisPoint Insight

September 11, 2026 at 12:48 PM IST

Liquidity Anchors CP, CD Yields, but Grip Weakens; Ball in RBI’s Court

CD and CP yields have fallen sharply since June as surplus cash flooded the banking system. The rally is now losing steam, but here’s why three-month rates are still unlikely to top 6.00%-6.25%.

Dehuti Jani

September 10, 2026 at 7:26 AM IST

iStock.com

Shifting RBI Signals Sap Gilt Trading; August Turnover Drops 20%

Government bond turnover fell 20% in August despite heavy fresh supply. Tighter spreads suggest liquidity was available. Conviction was not

Nishat Anjum

September 10, 2026 at 6:37 AM IST

Istock.com

CRR Hike May be RBI’S Cleanest Option to Drain Liquidity – I-Sec PD

ICICI Securities PD says a 1 percentage point CRR hike with short-end OMO sales may be RBI’s cleanest way to drain the FCNR-driven liquidity surge.

BasisPoint Insight

September 5, 2026 at 7:51 AM IST

istock.com

RBI Should Allow Early Exit to Make Its Term VRRR Auctions Effective

Giving banks a controlled exit option could turn poorly subscribed term VRRRs into a more effective instrument for absorbing surplus liquidity.

Richard Fargose

September 3, 2026 at 12:56 PM IST

RBI May Shift From VRRRs to Short-Term Tools as FX Swap Inflows Flood System

Record FCNR inflows have left the RBI with a new problem: how to drain a ₹9.70 trillion liquidity surplus without signalling tighter policy.

Richard Fargose

September 3, 2026 at 10:08 AM IST

istock.com

The Burden of a Successful FCNR Scheme

Record FCNR inflows strengthen India’s external buffer, but leave the RBI with a liquidity, currency and balance-sheet burden.

Yield Scribe

September 3, 2026 at 8:53 AM IST

istock.com

The Missing Variables Distorting India’s Economic Policy Diagnosis

India’s financial data are extensive, but policy can still miss the economy beneath the aggregates when trade credit, payment behaviour and import distortions remain invisible.

BL Chandak

September 2, 2026 at 3:50 AM IST

iStock.com/triloks

Should Bank Supervision be Procyclical in Terms of Its Rigour?

Bank supervision cannot ease in good times, because calm conditions can conceal risks, leverage and complacency behind the next financial crisis.

Rabi N. Mishra

August 28, 2026 at 3:38 AM IST

iStock.com

RBI faces a liquidity test as surplus swells; temporary tools may offer best response: IDFC FIRST Bank

BasisPoint Insight

August 28, 2026 at 3:35 AM IST

Masterclass with Michael Patra

How the RBI Manages Liquidity, From the LAF Corridor to Sterilisation and Beyond

Michael Patra explains how the RBI manages liquidity, from sterilisation and CRR operations to forecasting and the LAF corridor’s role in transmission.

Michael Debabrata Patra

August 28, 2026 at 3:06 AM IST

India’s Bond Markets Must Let the Data Speak Louder Than RBI Guidance

Inflation, surplus liquidity, rupee weakness, and crude oil now point towards higher rates. Bond markets should trust the data, not RBI guidance.

Yield Scribe

August 21, 2026 at 2:51 AM IST

istock.com

RBI’s Abrupt FCNR(B) Exit Sends Conflicting Signals to Rupee Markets

RBI’s abrupt FCNR(B) closure could cap liquidity and reserve gains, while exposing why record inflows have failed to strengthen the Indian rupee.

Apoorva Javadekar

August 19, 2026 at 4:01 AM IST

Masterclass with Michael Patra

The Plumbing in the Monetary Policy Architecture

Michael Patra explains the plumbing of monetary policy, tracing how RBI liquidity management transmits the MPC’s repo rate through banks and money markets.

Michael Debabrata Patra

August 17, 2026 at 3:23 AM IST

iStock.com

FCNR Liquidity Boost May Prove Transitory

FCNR inflows could lift core liquidity sharply by September, but currency leakage, bond maturities and forward unwinds may reverse much of it by March.

Yield Scribe

August 10, 2026 at 2:27 AM IST

Istock.com

RBI Reopens Door For Urban Cooperative Bank Licences After 22-Year Freeze

BasisPoint Insight

August 5, 2026 at 6:26 AM IST

India's Currency Paradox Has an Overlooked Link to Chinese Imports

Despite a world-class digital payment system, high-value currency continues to rise. The missing explanation may lie not in the payment system, but in India's trade with China.

BL Chandak

July 9, 2026 at 5:28 AM IST

istock.com

India's Fiscal Stress Predated the West Asia Shock

India's rupee and bonds weakened before the US-Iran crisis, signalling investor concern over debt, state deficits and RBI support, not oil alone.

Apoorva Javadekar

July 1, 2026 at 5:26 AM IST

IStock.com

Central-Bank Balance Sheets: Ballast or Buoyancy?

A central bank’s balance sheet is more than an accounting record. Its structure shapes growth, credibility, capital flows and policy power.

V Thiagarajan

June 24, 2026 at 3:48 AM IST

iStock.com

Has The Market Overpriced India's Rate Risk?

Markets may have mistaken a funding and BoP problem for an interest-rate problem. RBI's latest measures could ease pressure on OIS, yields and the rupee.

Yield Scribe

June 9, 2026 at 7:46 AM IST

iStock.com

Monetary Policy

FX Firewall Buys the RBI Time

The rupee no longer needs rescuing through rates, but inflation may still require 50-75 bps of tightening in the months ahead.

Shailendra Jhingan

June 5, 2026 at 2:06 PM IST

linkedin.com/Poonam Gupta

Monetary Policy

RBI Expected to Hold Rates, Focus Turns to Inflation and the Rupee

The RBI is expected to keep rates unchanged, but rising oil prices, a weak rupee and inflation risks could shift focus towards future policy tightening.

Team BasisPoint

June 3, 2026 at 6:22 AM IST

istock.com

Opinion

RBI Balance Sheet Shows a Tighter Government Embrace

RBI’s record surplus points to a deeper shift, with its balance sheet increasingly tied to government debt and fiscal expectations.

R. Gurumurthy

June 1, 2026 at 12:04 PM IST

Monetary Policy

The RBI's June Dilemma: Credibility Without the Hike

The macro backdrop has deteriorated materially since April. But the case for a June rate hike is weaker than the market noise suggests.

Radhika Piplani

May 29, 2026 at 12:08 PM IST

Masterclass with Michael Patra

Central Banking 101: Origins, Ideas and Institutions

After four decades at the RBI, Michael Patra enters classroom and traces how central banks evolved to safeguard trust, stability and confidence in this new Masterclass series.

Michael Debabrata Patra

May 25, 2026 at 7:41 AM IST

nibmindia.org

RBI Dividend: The Lifeline for the Centre and Markets

RBI’s record dividend will ease liquidity for now, but cash leakage and dollar sales mean durable OMO purchases may need to resume later in 2026-27.

Gaura Sen Gupta

May 23, 2026 at 12:30 PM IST

Money Market Signals Fear of RBI Tightening Amid Oil Risk

Rates in money markets indicate that dealers are reacting not merely to liquidity conditions, but to expectations around the future policy path.

BasisPoint Insight

May 22, 2026 at 8:31 AM IST

Opinion

Rupee Near 100: When Currency Weakness Reflects a Trust Deficit

The rupee’s slide reflects fading confidence in India’s monetary credibility, fiscal discipline and the RBI’s ability to anchor investor trust.

V Thiagarajan

May 21, 2026 at 3:14 AM IST

iStock.com

Bank Indonesia Has Chosen Currency Defence Over Comfort

The rupiah’s slide left Bank Indonesia with shrinking room for patience. The 50-bp hike is as much about credibility as inflation.

Basis View

May 20, 2026 at 12:49 PM IST

Istock.com

RBI Announces $5 Billion Swap To Inject Liquidity

BasisPoint Insight

May 20, 2026 at 12:31 PM IST

The RBI’s Overnight Triumph and India’s Term Market Problem

RBI may have largely stabilised overnight rates, but fragmented term funding markets continue to weaken monetary transmission across India’s broader financial system.

R. Gurumurthy

May 18, 2026 at 3:53 AM IST

Oil Firms’ Borrowing Surge May Become Bond Market’s Next Stress Test

Elevated crude prices and delayed fuel price revisions may push OMCs into aggressive bond and CP borrowings, tightening liquidity conditions.

Venkatakrishnan Srinivasan

May 12, 2026 at 3:48 AM IST

iStock.com

RBI Surplus Transfer Windfall to Support Liquidity, Fiscal Math in FY27: IDFC FIRST Bank

BasisPoint Insight

May 8, 2026 at 6:20 AM IST

When an India Bull Turns Underweight

A long-standing supporter of India is stepping back, not because the story has broken, but because the world that sustained it is being repriced.

Krishnadevan V

May 4, 2026 at 9:13 AM IST

iStock.com

India’s Bond Yields May Drift to 7.25% as Pressures Build

Comfortable liquidity masks rising risks. Supply, fiscal slippage and term premia could push the 10-year yield towards 7.25% in 2026–27.

Yield Scribe

May 4, 2026 at 4:03 AM IST

iStock.com

Policy Denial Meets OIS Pricing in India’s Inflation Reality

Markets price tightening even as policy resists fuel pass-through. This gap risks unanchored inflation expectations and strains fiscal and FX stability.

Yield Scribe

April 30, 2026 at 8:24 AM IST

Capital Turns Selective, Credibility Becomes Policy

As global capital grows more selective, India must prioritise policy credibility, predictability, and coordination to sustain inflows.

V Thiagarajan

April 24, 2026 at 5:45 AM IST

RBI’s Crowded Messaging Risks Diluting Policy Signal

Bundled announcements blur the RBI’s policy signal. A separate financial stability policy and a tighter, single-voice format could restore clarity.

R. Gurumurthy

April 13, 2026 at 4:46 AM IST

Monetary Policy

Term Money, Vague Intent

RBI’s move to open the term money market widens access, but its effectiveness will depend on design and regulatory clarity aligning with its objectives.

R. Gurumurthy

April 10, 2026 at 3:27 AM IST

iStock.com

Stress Testing Must Evolve to Match a Fluid Shock Environment

A financial system where risks continuously shift demands a new approach to stress testing, one that anticipates vulnerabilities rather than merely measuring them.

Anupam Sonal

April 10, 2026 at 2:08 AM IST

Wladyslaw Sojka/Via Wikicommons

Monetary Policy

RBI MPC Dials Down Market Anxiety; Retains Policy Flexibility

Even as war disruptions may have peaked, uncertainty on supply shocks and their second-round impact remains high, making any knee-jerk policy action potentially counterproductive.

Upasna Bhardwaj

April 9, 2026 at 8:49 AM IST

RBI Balance Sheet Shifts As FX Share Falls To A Decade Low

A decade of RBI data shows a quiet but consequential shift in balance sheet composition, with gold and domestic securities gaining ground on FX assets.

Abhishek Dey

April 7, 2026 at 5:28 AM IST

Screengrab from "RBI Unlocked: Beyond the Rupee" series (JioHotstar)

When the Culture Turns: Supervising the Risks That Hide in Plain Sight

Culture shapes how risk is lived, not just managed. Supervisors who ignore it miss the deepest root cause of institutional failure and misconduct.

Rabi N. Mishra

April 2, 2026 at 10:14 AM IST

Wladyslaw/ Via Wikicommon

India’s Liquidity Cycle May Not Be Driven by Policy Alone

RBI policy isn’t the only driver of liquidity. Data suggests sharp swings in state government cash balances may also influence India’s banking system liquidity cycle.

Abhishek Dey

April 1, 2026 at 5:07 AM IST

Safeguarding Financial Stability amidst the West Asia Crisis

A framework for regulators and institutions to manage multi-channel shocks, combining liquidity support, sharper supervision and stronger internal risk discipline without distorting markets.

Anupam Sonal

March 30, 2026 at 10:01 AM IST

Shock Rules, Not Shock Responses

Lagarde’s three principles recast shock response as risk management. For the RBI, the task shifts to containing spillovers, not just inflation.

Basis View

March 26, 2026 at 5:13 AM IST

Via WikiCommons

RBI’s FX Strategy Shifts as Oil Shock Tests External Stability

A prolonged West Asia shock may widen external deficits and strain capital flows, forcing the RBI to prioritise FX reserve preservation over currency defence

Gaura Sen Gupta

March 25, 2026 at 2:02 PM IST

When Prices Don’t Adjust, the Currency Does

When yields and prices are restrained, the currency absorbs the shock. India’s adjustment is happening, just not where it is acknowledged.

R. Gurumurthy

March 23, 2026 at 8:11 AM IST

Why Using RBI’s Contingency Reserves Is No Longer Heresy

Given current conditions, there is scope for using contingency reserves, doing away with capital gains, and reducing the size of government borrowing to send signals to external capital waiting to see countries with stability and growth.

R. Gurumurthy

March 18, 2026 at 12:23 PM IST

RBI Is Now the Bond Market’s Buyer of First Resort

The ₹1 trillion of screen-based OMOs and ₹8.58 trillion of total net buying show the RBI is inside the bond market, not outside, even as yields remain unyielding.

Richard Fargose

March 18, 2026 at 6:06 AM IST

West Asia Shock Tests RBI’s Growth-First Playbook

A dual oil supply and price shock may lift inflation and strain growth, forcing the RBI to rely on liquidity and signalling to keep conditions supportive.

Gaura Sen Gupta

March 18, 2026 at 5:47 AM IST

istocks/imaginima

The Comfort of Stability, The Cost of Silence

India’s bond market looks stable, but heavy RBI support and captive demand may be weakening price signals, distorting risk, and dulling its role as the system’s benchmark.

R. Gurumurthy

March 17, 2026 at 10:30 AM IST

iStock.com

When Geopolitics Enters the Bank’s Risk Ledger

Rising credit costs, slower deposits, and geopolitical shocks are converging. Banks must detect borrower stress early before risks reach balance sheets.

K. Srinivasa Rao

March 12, 2026 at 4:40 AM IST

India’s Bond Market Puzzle: The Missing Market Makers

India’s bond market lacks depth because trading remains thin. Unless natural players like the banks take a larger role in government and corporate debt, liquidity and benchmarks will remain weak.

Rahul Ghosh

March 6, 2026 at 7:47 AM IST

iStock.com

Why Central Banks Intervene and Why the FX Rate Matters for the RBI

Capital flows now dominate currency markets, forcing central banks to intervene. This essay explains why exchange rates matter for the RBI’s stability mandate.

Michael Debabrata Patra

March 5, 2026 at 6:28 AM IST

iStock.com

Supervising the System: RBI’s Quiet Governance Reset

As finance turns digital and interlinked, the RBI is redesigning supervision by shifting from balance-sheet checks to ecosystem-wide governance architecture.

Abhishek Dey

March 5, 2026 at 5:23 AM IST

Borrowing Without Bruising the Curve in 2026-27

Supply discipline, SDL restraint and liquidity calibration will determine whether ₹16 trillion sails smoothly or strains duration again.

Yield Scribe

March 2, 2026 at 3:27 AM IST

Finance Ministry

India’s Liquidity Surplus Masks a Structural Shortage?

India’s liquidity looks ample on paper, but thin reserve buffers and weak deposit elasticity reveal a deeper structural strain.

Kalyan Ram

February 18, 2026 at 12:32 PM IST

New CPI Base Year Improves Confidence for Bold Policy Initiatives

Revised weights, softer underlying inflation and corridor liquidity dynamics suggest room for calibrated action in April, subject to incoming data.

Barendra Kumar Bhoi

February 17, 2026 at 3:31 AM IST

iStock.com

India’s Next Growth Phase Needs Regulatory Courage

With banks strong and inflation anchored, India’s risk is not fragility but comfort. Governing success will demand pre-emptive discipline.

Anupam Sonal

February 16, 2026 at 7:14 AM IST

Will Total Return Swaps Rescue India’s Corporate Bond Market?

RBI’s TRS framework promises synthetic liquidity in corporate bonds, but without deeper cash markets, derivatives may amplify fragility, not depth.

R. Gurumurthy

February 16, 2026 at 3:25 AM IST

iStock.com

Bond Market Mood Turns as Inflation Reset Cools Yields

Lower January core CPI numbers in the new series, reduced gross borrowing, and softer global yields pause the selloff, though heavy supply keeps the bears around.

Yield Scribe

February 16, 2026 at 2:22 AM IST

Bond Market-Making Needs Capital, Not Just Mandates

India wants market makers to revive corporate bond trading. Even gilts never got meaningful liquidity from mandates. Without risk capital, market-making will remain rhetoric.

R. Gurumurthy

February 12, 2026 at 7:22 AM IST

PIB

RBI Seen Managing Frictional Liquidity via VRR, VRRR: I-Sec PD

BasisPoint Insight

February 9, 2026 at 6:44 AM IST

MPC Review

Monetary Policy, Liquidity, and the Road Hereafter

Despite ample liquidity and 125-bps easing, monetary transmission stayed uneven. Bonds reflected supply fears, policy uncertainty, and muted demand.

Shubhada Rao, Vivek Kumar, and Yuvika Singhal

February 7, 2026 at 1:51 PM IST

Time to Take a SIP of Deposits

As household savings shift to equities, Indian banks face a silent funding squeeze. Reimagining deposits through SIP-style CDs could restore stability.

Prakash Balakrishnan & Ganga Narayan Rath

February 6, 2026 at 3:22 PM IST

iStock.com

MPC Review

Liquidity Signals Keep Transmission in Focus

RBI held rates steady, but without fresh liquidity measures, bond yields hardened, funding spreads remained wide, and transmission risks took centre stage.

Shailendra Jhingan

February 6, 2026 at 12:25 PM IST

Poonam Gupta/LinkedIn

MPC Review

RBI Signals the End of Easing as Markets Begin to Question Comfort

Policy stability risks being mistaken for financial stability. The easing cycle may have ended, but the adjustment it triggered is far from complete.

Dhananjay Sinha

February 6, 2026 at 10:53 AM IST

MPC Review

RBI and the Bond Market Are Living in Parallel Worlds

Bond yields now reflect supply pressures, not policy signals. Until that changes, the RBI and bond markets will continue to operate in parallel worlds.

Kalyan Ram

February 6, 2026 at 10:37 AM IST

iStock.com

MPC Review

Why the RBI Chose Optionality Over Precision

With inflation benign and borrowing risks rising, the RBI opted for flexibility over flourish, signalling support without locking itself into specifics.

Kalyan Ram

February 6, 2026 at 6:29 AM IST

Opinion

Malhotra’s RBI Needs Moral Suasion to Repair Policy Transmission?

The RBI’s challenge may not lie in policy intent or available tools. The difficulty appears to be that decisions are not consistently producing the intended market response.

Mint Owl

February 5, 2026 at 1:58 PM IST

MPC Review

Solving RBI’s Liquidity Conundrum

RBI’s record liquidity infusion in 2025-26 has failed to ease conditions as dollar sales, cash leakage and fiscal hoarding drain surplus.

Gaura Sen Gupta

February 5, 2026 at 6:09 AM IST

iStock.com

MPC Review

Liquidity Is Plenty, Confidence Is Scarce

Despite deep easing and ample liquidity, markets signal stress. Transmission has stalled, making confidence, not rates, the binding constraint.

Madhavi Arora

February 5, 2026 at 5:29 AM IST

Juvaida Khatun/Istock

MPC Review

RBI’s Easiest Decision May Be to Do Nothing

RBI likely to hold rates steady as growth holds firm and risks shift offshore

K. Srinivasa Rao

February 5, 2026 at 3:13 AM IST

MPC Review

RBI’s Rate-Cut Problem Is Not the Cut — It Is the Plumbing

India’s rate cuts are failing to move bond yields because the liquidity plumbing is broken, forcing markets to follow overnight rates rather than RBI signals.

D. Tripati Rao and Ritesh Gupta

February 4, 2026 at 6:43 AM IST

US Tariff Reset May Cut India’s Effective Trade Burden to Low Teens - BofA

BasisPoint Insight

February 3, 2026 at 11:54 AM IST

Budget 2026

Budget Arithmetic Leaves Bonds on Edge

India’s 2026–27 fiscal arithmetic offered little comfort to bond investors, with higher borrowing, sticky interest costs and no clear backstop for supply pressures.

Yield Scribe

February 1, 2026 at 2:02 PM IST

RBI

Cautious Optimism for Credit in 2026-27, but Rate Relief Remains Elusive: India Ratings

BasisPoint Insight

January 21, 2026 at 11:32 AM IST

Briefing

Why the RBI Uses Buy-Sell FX Swaps and What They Really Mean

RBI’s buy-sell FX swaps are read as rupee signals. They are not. An explainer on why swaps manage liquidity and hedging, not the exchange rate.

V Thiagarajan

January 14, 2026 at 4:24 AM IST

India’s Bond Yields Are Rising for a Reason, and It Isn’t the Centre

India’s fiscal optics look tidy, but swelling state borrowings are distorting bond yields, overwhelming demand and blunting the RBI’s liquidity toolkit.

Yield Scribe

January 6, 2026 at 3:37 AM IST

iStock.com

How the Fed Became a Lender of Immediate Resort

By acting as a lender of immediate resort, the Fed may have steadied markets, but it also left the underlying incentives unchanged, setting the stage for the next crisis and putting its independence under strain.

Amit Seru

December 25, 2025 at 6:01 AM IST

Federal Reserve

Risk Sensitive Banking: Strength, Scale and Stability Beyond 2026

Strong balance sheets give banks room to grow, but tighter liquidity, sharper risk norms and new capital rules will test how sustainably that growth is delivered.

K. Srinivasa Rao

December 24, 2025 at 6:10 AM IST

A Decade of Rupee Depreciation: Why This Time Was Different

The rupee’s 2015–25 slide looks dramatic in headline terms, but unlike past episodes it unfolded gradually, supported by services exports, reserves and RBI’s volatility management.

Babuji K

December 22, 2025 at 5:23 AM IST

India’s Bond Market Is No Longer Listening to the RBI

Rate cuts, benign inflation and strong growth optics should have eased yields. The bond market’s refusal to comply is a warning of deeper structural fault lines.

Madhavi Arora

December 18, 2025 at 6:05 AM IST

MPC Moves Signal the Arrival of a Post-Cycle Policy Regime

Below-target disinflation, a structural liquidity pivot, and the RBI’s sharp separation of stance from liquidity signal a new level of complexity that requires a post-cycle reading.

Kalyan Ram

December 10, 2025 at 7:01 AM IST

Monetary Policy

December Cut for Inflation, a February Cut for Growth

India’s December cut signalled entrenched disinflation, yet weakening growth may force another move in February as liquidity and demand slip.

Yield Scribe

December 8, 2025 at 2:34 AM IST

Monetary Policy

RBI’s Dovish Turn Clouds the Story of India’s Goldilocks Economy

Accommodative push contrasts with claims of strong growth and benign inflation

Dhananjay Sinha

December 5, 2025 at 3:27 PM IST

iStock.com

Monetary Policy

RBI’s Rate Cut Shows Rupee is No Obstacle to Easing

The MPC cut rates despite the rupee’s wobble, signalling what policy has long implied. The currency is simply not a factor in the RBI’s rate calculus.

Basis View

December 5, 2025 at 2:12 PM IST

Opinion

Malhotra Keeps Rate Cuts in Play, but Will He Move Again?

Governor Malhotra kept the easing cycle alive on Friday, yet his real objective may be to extract transmission rather than commit to another cut.

Kalyan Ram

December 5, 2025 at 11:06 AM IST

Poonam Gupta

MPC Review

Policy Reflects Growth Concerns

Repo cut and liquidity infusion signalled the RBI’s deeper worry that growth momentum is softening despite strong headline numbers.

Rupa Rege Nitsure

December 5, 2025 at 8:48 AM IST

Monetary Policy

RBI Must Avoid June’s Missteps as Stance and Signals Take Centre Stage

The RBI’s December review must prioritise clear signalling and avoid June’s mistakes.

Richard Fargose

December 4, 2025 at 5:28 AM IST

RBI Tweets

Rupee Dilemma: The Case for Strategic Silence

RBI’s reticence, even as the rupee slips past 90, has unsettled markets. But sometimes, saying more only compounds the problem.

Basis View

December 4, 2025 at 4:30 AM IST

Monetary Policy

Why OMOs Matter in This MPC

In a cycle where the headlines flatter to deceive, the liquidity stance, even more than the repo rate action, will do the heavy lifting.

Madhavi Arora

December 1, 2025 at 9:26 AM IST

Monetary Policy

A Rate Cut Now Could Strengthen India’s Growth Cushion

With inflation at historic lows and growth surprising on the upside, the RBI may opt for a calibrated repo rate cut to protect India’s global position.

K. Srinivasa Rao

December 1, 2025 at 7:02 AM IST

RBI Trade Relief Measures Timely, Targeted With a Clear Sunset Window

The RBI’s trade relief package shows an institution relying on hard-earned crisis lessons to offer temporary support without loosening discipline.

Mint Owl

November 19, 2025 at 11:05 AM IST

Malhotra’s RBI: Between Freedom and Friction

Malhotra completes his first year at the RBI next month. His tenure so far reveals a governor intent on pushing boundaries, loosening rules, and learning where freedom ends and systemic risk begins.

R. Gurumurthy

November 17, 2025 at 6:11 AM IST

RBI

Monetary Policy

Inflation Targeting Needs Flexibility, Not Unanimity

When monetary consensus turns to groupthink, inflation targeting risks losing its flexibility—and its purpose.

Ashima Goyal

November 13, 2025 at 2:35 AM IST

RBI’s Auction Rebuff Calms Bonds, but Upside Risks to Yields Remain

India’s central bank’s surprise rejection of bids in a seven-year bond sale soothed markets briefly, yet underlying demand-supply tensions remain entrenched.

Yield Scribe

November 2, 2025 at 3:13 PM IST

Opinion

Gold’s Rational Resilience in an Irrational World

For central banks, gold is not a relic of history but a rational hedge against the politics for & of money, the fragility of debt, and the unpredictability of power.

Srinath Sridharan

October 12, 2025 at 3:33 PM IST

Screengrab from "RBI Unlocked: Beyond the Rupee" series (JioHotstar)

Centre Primes States With Early Cash Before Festivals

New Delhi’s advance tax devolution gives states more firepower, but risks widening bond spreads and straining its own balance sheet.

BasisPoint Insight

October 3, 2025 at 12:28 PM IST

iStock.com

Monetary Policy

Review of MPC Decision: What Does it Mean to be Forward-Looking?

Is it forward-looking to let policy be decided by base effects, rather than encouraging the anchoring of inflation expectations at the target?

Ashima Goyal

October 1, 2025 at 5:26 PM IST

Monetary Policy

No Matter What MPC Does, RBI Communication has to do Some Heavy Lifting

RBI’s biggest challenge is not what it does on rates, but how it explains the why, why not and what next to markets and the wider economy.

Mint Owl

September 30, 2025 at 12:34 PM IST

RBI

Why RBI Must Define CRR as a Legitimate LoLR Tool

RBI must define CRR as a true Lender-of-Last-Resort tool to provide banks with assured liquidity support during crises.

Karan Mehrishi

September 30, 2025 at 10:56 AM IST

Monetary Policy

Time for RBI to Recount, Reset

Beyond the rate call, the October review must recount what has been done, what was achieved, and set the compass for policy in the year ahead.

Basis View

September 30, 2025 at 10:23 AM IST

iStock.com

Why Liquidity Could Be the Next Big Breakthrough for India’s AIF Market

India’s AIF market has soared in scale, but illiquidity holds it back. A secondary market could be the breakthrough to unlock trust, access and capital.

Omkar Ghaisas

September 11, 2025 at 8:16 AM IST

iStock.com

State Bond Glut is Breaking Monetary Transmission

Excess supply of state government bonds is distorting markets, widening spreads, and choking the Reserve Bank’s monetary transmission.

Yield Scribe

September 3, 2025 at 7:40 AM IST

Book Review

God Laughs, Markets Listen, and the Reddyisms that Still Resonate

From wit and ambiguity to humility and integrity, YV Reddy’s new book shows why values matter more than plans in an uncertain world.

Kalyan Ram

August 31, 2025 at 4:45 AM IST

Open Mouths, Open Markets, and RBI’s Signalling Gap

The RBI’s June gamble of frontloaded easing and a sudden neutral stance has backfired, raising borrowing costs. Governor Malhotra now needs both words and deeds.

Basis View

August 27, 2025 at 6:45 AM IST

RBI

India’s Banks Need a New Business Model Before Liquidity Risks Bite Harder

Deposit growth is slowing, liquidity risks are rising, and RBI rules are shifting. India’s banks must rewire their business models before the next shock.

K. Srinivasa Rao

August 14, 2025 at 7:30 AM IST

iStock.com/lakshmiprasad S

The RBI’s Curious Attachment to a Benchmark That Hardly Trades

The RBI’s liquidity panel sticks with WACR as its policy anchor, even though the market it reflects is shrinking fast. Reform? Or regulatory nostalgia?

R. Gurumurthy

August 8, 2025 at 6:43 AM IST

Monetary Policy

RBI’s Growth Hopes Mask Limits of Policy Easing

The RBI’s optimism on growth belies structural weaknesses and hints that the impact of front-loaded rate cuts may already be waning.

Dhananjay Sinha

August 6, 2025 at 2:14 PM IST

Poonam Gupta

Monetary Policy

RBI Panel Recommends Retaining Weighted Average Call Rate as Policy Anchor

RBI’s internal group recommends retaining the weighted average call rate as the policy anchor, citing its strong correlation with money market rates and effective signal transmission.

BasisPoint Insight

August 6, 2025 at 7:15 AM IST

RBI Expected to Pause, but Weak Data Opens Door to Further Cuts

The MPC is expected to hold rates steady, but easing bias remains amid low inflation, moderating growth, and risks from US tariffs.

BasisPoint Insight

August 4, 2025 at 12:13 PM IST

Monetary Policy

RBI Unlikely to Cut Repo Rate as Focus Turns to Credit Transmission

With inflation cooling and liquidity ample, RBI is set to hold rates and wait for credit transmission before fresh policy moves.

K. Srinivasa Rao

August 4, 2025 at 3:44 AM IST

RBI Steps in With ₹500 Billion VRR as Call Rate Hits Corridor Ceiling

BasisPoint Insight

July 23, 2025 at 8:01 AM IST

India’s Recovery Plan Is Missing Its Fiscal Half

While the RBI has acted to support growth, the Finance Ministry’s virtual silence since the Budget leaves policy looking oddly one-handed.

Dhananjay Sinha

Kalyan Ram

July 20, 2025 at 6:52 AM IST

Monetary Transmission Is Both Alive And Dead Like Schrödinger’s Cat

Liquidity is plentiful, rates are low, yet credit growth is muted. Monetary transmission in India remains a paradox that defies easy solutions.

Yield Scribe

July 7, 2025 at 5:13 AM IST

iStock.com

Interview

Tata Or Batata? Nilesh Shah Lays Out India’s Market Mindmap

From HFT to FDI, inflation myths to rupee truth, Nilesh Shah maps India’s market future—in metaphors only he can mint.

BasisPoint Insight

June 26, 2025 at 4:29 AM IST

AI Generated

MPC Minutes Reveal Wobbly Logic Behind the Stance Shift

The June MPC minutes show a committee leaning hard into caution, but its reasoning for abandoning the accommodative stance reveals some puzzling dissonance.

Basis View

June 21, 2025 at 4:23 AM IST

Poonam Gupta

Surplus Transfer: Windfall For Government, Balancing Act For RBI

By transferring a record surplus to the central government and a larger chunk to the risk buffers, the RBI has balanced between supporting fiscal needs and preserving policy credibility.

R. Gurumurthy

June 9, 2025 at 11:19 AM IST

Anurag Vijay/CC

RBI’s Abrupt Policy Shift Risks Undermining Its Own Credibility

Markets do not fear rate cuts or hikes. They fear a central bank that shifts stance and floods the system with liquidity before the economy is ready.

Kalyan Ram

June 6, 2025 at 3:09 PM IST

Screengrab from RBI Press Conference

RBI Pushes For Better Rate Transmission, But Structural Frictions Persist

RBI steps up easing with rate and CRR cuts, but uneven liquidity, sticky bank rates, and cautious lending slow real transmission to the economy.

Richard Fargose

June 6, 2025 at 2:49 PM IST

Photo by Patrick Hendry on Unsplash

Monetary Intent And Content Matter, Not Just The Mic

Authority and influence in central banking are earned through judgement, not decibels.

Srinath Sridharan

June 6, 2025 at 12:47 PM IST

Monetary Policy

RBI Frontloads Hyper Accommodation

The RBI’s frontloaded stimulus lifts markets, but its ability to revive growth is constrained by weak income, tepid investment, and global drag.

Dhananjay Sinha

June 6, 2025 at 10:38 AM IST

iStock.com

Monetary Policy

RBI’s New Dharma: Bold Cuts, Balanced Stance

With its bold cuts in repo rate and CRR, and the shift in stance, the RBI has tried to play its role in pushing growth but has a contingency plan, should things go wrong.

Abheek Barua

June 6, 2025 at 9:49 AM IST

RBI

No Mic For Deputy Governor Gupta In RBI’s Monetary Opera

India’s newest monetary policymaker sat silent through a blockbuster policy. Poonam Gupta’s RBI debut came and went, with barely a word.

Basis View

June 6, 2025 at 8:13 AM IST

Screengrab of RBI press conference

Monetary Policy

Operation Frontload: RBI Fires All Weapons, Then Calls For Peace

RBI unleashed a surprise rate-and-liquidity barrage, then changed stance to neutral. Was this pre-emption, or a response to unseen threats?

Basis View

June 6, 2025 at 7:26 AM IST

PIB

Record RBI Dividend Payouts Are A Short-Term Fix With Long-Term Risks

Another likely record dividend to the Centre may offer fiscal relief, but could undermine monetary stability and currency management in an uncertain global climate.

Dhananjay Sinha

May 22, 2025 at 4:02 AM IST

iStock.com

LAF@25: SDF – From A Corridor To A Comfort Zone

Part 2 of our LAF@25 series explores how the Standing Deposit Facility may be steering India’s liquidity corridor towards a de facto floor regime.

R. Gurumurthy

May 20, 2025 at 3:37 AM IST

RBI Need Not Rush To 5% As Liquidity Does The Heavy-Lifting

The RBI has uncoupled its stance from liquidity. That may make aggressive rate cuts less likely, even if monetary conditions stay easy.

Basis View

May 19, 2025 at 5:56 AM IST

RBI Tweets

LAF@25: The Shifting Core Of India’s Monetary Operations

As the RBI’s Liquidity Adjustment Facility turns 25, this three-part series traces its evolution, limitations, and future as a monetary policy mainstay.

R. Gurumurthy

May 19, 2025 at 5:11 AM IST

iStock.com

LAF, SDF, MSF - Gupta’s Learning Curve Begins With ABCs Of WACR Vs SORR

The new RBI deputy governor takes charge amid a fluid framework and the push to convert surplus liquidity into transmission. It is more than the alphabet soup of acronyms that confronts her.

Basis View

May 3, 2025 at 4:25 AM IST

Liquidity: Sterilisation, Caution, Or Doubling Down?

FX book chickens come home to roost in 2025-26, and the RBI’s liquidity injections may need to grow even larger to avoid a fresh policy transmission hiccup.

Vivek Kumar

May 1, 2025 at 3:49 AM IST

Is the RBI’s Liquidity Blitz a Signal of Deeper Economic Strain?

An outsized bond purchase plan and aggressive liquidity support hint at a more serious undercurrent: faltering money supply, weak credit momentum, and growth worries.

Basis View

April 28, 2025 at 4:15 PM IST

Monetary Policy

RBI Must Resist Calls To Reopen The Fixed Rate Repo Window

Calls to revive the fixed repo window are gaining ground. The RBI must resist — or risk undoing a decade of hard-won liquidity discipline.

Basis Pundit

April 7, 2025 at 2:44 PM IST

Rupee Steadies As RBI Fires On All Fronts To Calm FX And Liquidity

The rupee’s slide reversed as RBI stepped in with dollar sales, swap deals, and liquidity tools to restore calm without chasing a fixed exchange rate.

Manoj Rane

April 4, 2025 at 3:38 PM IST

Anurag Vijay/CC

RBI Sharpens Liquidity Playbook With April OMOs to Anchor Yields, Transmission

Bond purchases continue even as liquidity turns surplus, reinforcing RBI's push for smooth rate transmission and economic support.

Richard Fargose

April 2, 2025 at 2:23 AM IST

RBI's Rate Cut Fails To Ease Market Rates Amid Tight Liquidity Grip

Despite easing inflation and a long-awaited rate cut, tight liquidity and weak transmission have kept market rates stubbornly high under RBI’s watch.

Manoj Rane

March 28, 2025 at 5:32 AM IST

Indian Banking System Liquidity Set To Shift From Scarcity To Surplus, Says QuantEco

BasisPoint Insight

March 19, 2025 at 8:59 AM IST

RBI’s Liquidity Blind Spot: Growth Needs A Clearer Policy

The Reserve Bank of India’s liquidity strategy has unsettled markets and heightened economic risks. A decisive shift is needed to safeguard growth just as inflation appears contained.

G. Mahalingam

March 18, 2025 at 6:56 AM IST

Anurag Vijay/CC

RBI Liquidity: Rectitude, Discretion And King Canute

RBI must maintain core liquidity surplus at 0.5%-1.0% of NDTL in FY26 to ensure credit flow. Durable tools over repo reliance key to stability.

Vivek Kumar

March 8, 2025 at 7:22 AM IST

Anurag Vijay/CC

Basis Shorts

October 22

RBI Minutes Sound Less Hawkish Than Policy, but Market Holds On To Rate Hike Bets

ICICI Readjusts Welcome Mat

From ₹11 Trillion to ₹5 Billion in 45 Days

The Cost of Caution at the RBI

October 21

RBI’s Pre-emptive Hike and the Inflation Divide

MPC Minutes: Are the MPC and Its Policy Back to Speaking the Same Language?

MPC Minutes: Why the Cost of Waiting for Clearer Inflation Evidence Has Risen

RBI Drains Liquidity, Then Rejects the Price Tag

Jio’s IPO Is Covered, but Institutions Still Carry the Book

The Bureau

Asian Stocks Mixed as Meta Beats, Tesla Slides; US Futures Retreat

Rubio’s Venezuelan Oil Proposal: Issues India Must Resolve Before Committing

India Core Industries Growth Accelerates to 7.9% in September

Highlights of Comments by MPC Members at October 5-7 Policy Meeting

Navratri auto sales fall 6.52% on year to 1.12 mln units; EV sales rise 26.78%, says FADA

YES Bank AT-1 Bonds, Cancer Drug Pricing, Google-Adani Data Centre & More

India Can Grow at 7% — But Reforms Must Go Deeper