India Aug-Sep Rainfall Likely Below Normal as El Niño Strengthens

BasisPoint Insight

July 31, 2026 at 1:21 PM IST

Week in Numbers: Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

India's inflation measures rose in June, with retail inflation climbing above the RBI's 4% target for the first time in 17 months. Renewed hostilities in West Asia and the prospect of deficient monsoon rainfall point to further upside risks to inflation in the months ahead.

Datametricx

July 18, 2026 at 11:15 AM IST

istock.com

Week in Numbers: Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

India's economic indicators sent mixed signals in June, with strong growth in automobile sales and power generation contrasting with weak fuel consumption, delayed kharif sowing, and continued mutual fund outflows.

Datametricx

July 11, 2026 at 11:43 AM IST

istocks.com

El Nino Once Again Exposes Gaps in Irrigation Strategy

India needs to focus on a long-term irrigation and crop strategy at both the centre and state level if it needs to break the cycle of being held hostage to the monsoon each year.

Sharmila Kantha

July 7, 2026 at 6:27 AM IST

istock.com

India’s Water Crisis Is the Price of Years of Policy Neglect

India's water crisis did not begin with this year's weak monsoon. It is the result of years of treating water as an abundant resource.

G. Chandrashekhar

July 3, 2026 at 6:45 AM IST

istock.com

Week in Numbers: Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

High-frequency indicators pointed to a significant slowdown in growth in May. However, with the ceasefire between the US and Iran holding and energy prices easing, growth is likely to improve in the coming months.

Datametricx

June 28, 2026 at 12:23 PM IST

istock.com

Weak Monsoon has an Inflation Bias

Rainfall deficits push food prices up more sharply than rainfall surpluses bring them down

Shubhada Rao, Vivek Kumar, and Yuvika Singhal

June 23, 2026 at 4:00 AM IST

Istock.com

Week in Numbers: Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

India’s WPI inflation and merchandise trade deficit remained elevated in May as the conflict in West Asia pushed up energy prices. Both are likely to ease if the ceasefire between the US and Iran holds and energy prices remain contained.

Datametricx

June 20, 2026 at 11:27 AM IST

istock.com

Weak Monsoon Threat Raises Prospect of Wider Policy Intervention

A deficient monsoon poses risks to kharif output and food inflation, potentially requiring policymakers to deploy a mix of trade, fiscal, administrative and monetary measures.

G. Chandrashekhar

June 19, 2026 at 9:39 AM IST

Istock.com

El Nino May Lower Harvest; But Won’t Compromise Food Security

The southwest monsoon may be deficient, but significant procurement in the past has ensured that India has adequate supply of foodgrain for her population.so

G. Chandrashekhar

June 4, 2026 at 9:27 AM IST

Istock.com

Crop Output Targets For 2026-27 Are Out, But Are They Realistic?

The government’s crop production targets seem to have ignored ground realities such as the looming El Nino, the West Asia unrest and a monsoon at 90% of the LPA.

G. Chandrashekhar

June 3, 2026 at 5:23 AM IST

istock.com

Govt Approves MSP for Kharif Season, Raises Support Price for Paddy by ₹72/100 kg

Government raises MSP for paddy and other Kharif crops for 2026-27, with sharp hikes in sunflower, cotton and pulses to support farm incomes.

BasisPoint Insight

May 13, 2026 at 11:07 AM IST

iStock.com

Economic Review Flags Supply Risks as India Faces a Harder Inflation Test

The latest economic review signals resilience, but supply disruptions may soon test growth, inflation, and policy tools in ways that demand management cannot offset.

BasisPoint Groupthink

April 30, 2026 at 6:12 AM IST

Istock.com

El Nino Tests Kharif and India’s Farm Economy

A weak monsoon threat amid El Nino risks could hit Kharif output, widen import dependence and strain rural incomes, testing policy preparedness.

G. Chandrashekhar

April 29, 2026 at 9:00 AM IST

iStock.com

Rural India’s Twin Shock Tests Policy Resilience

A weak monsoon and rising input costs risk squeezing rural incomes, lifting inflation, and complicating policy trade-offs in 2026.

Dhananjay Sinha

April 13, 2026 at 3:04 AM IST

iStock.com

Towards Smarter, Greener, Indigenous Fertilisers

With global supply chains increasingly fragile, fertiliser security has become central to India’s food security. Reducing import dependence through more sustainable and efficient nutrient use must be a priority.

G. Chandrashekhar

April 6, 2026 at 11:55 AM IST

WikiCommons

India’s Rabi Crop Estimates May Be Too Optimistic

The government’s second advance estimates project record wheat and mustard output, yet heat stress, weak rainfall, and yield math suggest caution.

G. Chandrashekhar

March 16, 2026 at 2:50 AM IST

iStocks/branex

Week in Numbers: Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

Retail inflation rose marginally in February. However, the war in West Asia, the resulting disruption in global trade channels, and higher crude oil prices could push up domestic inflation in the coming months.

Datametricx

March 14, 2026 at 11:43 AM IST

iStock.com

Twin Risks of War and Weather Threaten Indian Economy

A widening West Asian conflict and a looming El Niño are creating a dangerous mix for the Indian economy, as higher energy costs and weather-hit crops could push inflation up and complicate growth prospects.

G. Chandrashekhar

March 11, 2026 at 9:03 AM IST

WikiCommons

Monetary Policy

Goodbye Inflation, See You in Next Cycle

The RBI’s rate cut reflects the end of an inflation cycle that began in 2022 and collapsed spectacularly in 2025.

BasisPoint Groupthink

December 5, 2025 at 8:00 AM IST

Chronic Delays in Kharif Estimates Are Fuel for Market Volatility

Repeated delays in releasing Kharif production estimates are stoking needless speculation, weakening market confidence and undermining policy credibility.

G. Chandrashekhar

November 17, 2025 at 9:36 AM IST

iStock.com

Prune the List of Major Oilseeds and Sharpen Policy Focus

India needs a rethink on its oilseed strategy, with four of the nine “major” oilseeds no longer meriting MSP support. A sharper focus on crops like sunflower could cut import dependence and boost self-reliance.

G. Chandrashekhar

November 7, 2025 at 11:47 AM IST

Istock.com/bdspn

Week in Numbers: Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

India’s industrial growth more than doubled in the July-September quarter, but remained well below the expansion signalled by the PMI.

Datametricx

November 1, 2025 at 7:57 AM IST

Week in Numbers – Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

There are early signs that the GST rate cuts are beginning to filter through the system. E-way bills in September and automobile sales during the Navaratri week indicate a promising start.

Datametricx

October 12, 2025 at 2:17 PM IST

Week in Numbers – Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

Not withstanding the government’s confidence, the fiscal situation appears under pressure due to income tax cuts in the Budget and GST rationalisation.

Datametricx

October 6, 2025 at 11:56 AM IST

iStock.com

Monetary Policy

RBI Reopens the Door to Accommodation

By keeping the repo unchanged yet signalling policy space, RBI corrects June’s misstep and restores credibility to its accommodative posture.

Kalyan Ram

October 1, 2025 at 8:31 AM IST

Screengrab

Monetary Policy

RBI Reopens Rate Door, December Cut Alive

RBI held repo at 5.5%, stance neutral. Malhotra kept powder dry, with inflation benign and growth risks making December a live meeting.

BasisPoint Insight

October 1, 2025 at 5:16 AM IST

Screengrab from a RBI Press Conference

Week in Numbers – Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

The sharp jump in core sector output in August has raised hopes of stronger industrial growth during the month, following a string of anaemic readings.

Datametricx

September 29, 2025 at 7:15 AM IST

Via WikiCommons

Week in Numbers – Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

Despite a sharp rebound in income tax collections last month, concerns remain about meeting this year’s ambitious direct tax target.

Datametricx

September 22, 2025 at 9:58 AM IST

Finance Ministry

Week in Numbers – Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

With retail inflation trending below projections, GST rate cuts, potential Fed easing, and US tariffs weighing on India’s growth, the window for an RBI rate cut in December may be opening.

Datametricx

September 15, 2025 at 4:27 AM IST

iStock.com

Week in Numbers – Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

The GST reforms, slowdown in tax collections and the likely sops to protect the export sector from the US tariffs are likely to put pressure on government finances this year.

Datametricx

September 8, 2025 at 9:48 AM IST

Finance Ministry

Week in Numbers – Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

The divergence between Indian PMIs and hard data has rarely been wider, with the two indicators pointing in opposite ends.

BasisPoint Insight

August 25, 2025 at 11:42 AM IST

iStock.com

The Bureau

Asian Markets Extend Rally as Falling Oil Prices Lift Sentiment

Week in Numbers: Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

HSBC’s $6.1 Billion Leap Redraws India’s FCNR(B) Deposit Map

Govt Says No Review of STT Structure; F&O Volumes Rise Despite Budget Tax Hike

India Manufacturing PMI Eases to Near Five-Year Low in July as Domestic Demand Softens

Asian Markets Slide as Investors Question West Asia Truce

Indian Banks Mobilise $40.82 Billion So Far Under RBI Forex Swap Facility

Bloomberg Defers Decision on India’s Inclusion in Global Aggregate Index

The Foster Mother of Lodhi Garden