Week in Numbers: Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

With GST rate cuts coming into effect and a significant statistical base effect in play, India’s inflation indicators are likely to move toward deflation in October.

Datametricx

October 18, 2025 at 12:45 PM IST

istock.com/natbits

Reliance Turns Bottled Water Into Its Next Big Disruption

Reliance launches Campa Sure with sharp pricing and massive reach, squeezing rivals, as ₹15 a litre resets bottled water economics across India.

Krishnadevan V

October 17, 2025 at 6:32 AM IST

iStock.com

MPC Keeps Powder Dry as Rate-Cut Debate Heats Up

With inflation at record lows and growth softening, most MPC members now see room for another rate cut this cycle. Yet, they prefer to wait.

BasisPoint Insight

October 15, 2025 at 2:32 PM IST

Juvaida Khatun/Istock

The Illusion of Balance: Why Centrism Can’t Lead India

India’s future won’t be shaped by the safety of the middle but by the strength of conviction. It needs moral clarity, not centrism, to guide its democracy.

Srinath Sridharan

October 15, 2025 at 7:45 AM IST

iStock.com

Too Much Paper, Too Little Appetite: State Bond Strains Persist

BasisPoint Insight

October 14, 2025 at 4:50 AM IST

Opinion

Is Strategic Disinvestment the Next Frontier in Economic Reform?

Following the GST 2.0, the government should aggressively pursue strategic divestment in PSUs to strengthen its finances and enhance shareholder value.

Nilanjan Banik

October 14, 2025 at 3:11 AM IST

iStock.com

Week in Numbers – Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

There are early signs that the GST rate cuts are beginning to filter through the system. E-way bills in September and automobile sales during the Navaratri week indicate a promising start.

Datametricx

October 12, 2025 at 2:17 PM IST

Optical Illusion in Public Capex

The public investment surge this year appears impressive, but much of its strength comes from accounting adjustments and base effects rather than new capital creation

Madhavi Arora

October 9, 2025 at 6:48 AM IST

iStcoks/mgstudyo

Week in Numbers – Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

Not withstanding the government’s confidence, the fiscal situation appears under pressure due to income tax cuts in the Budget and GST rationalisation.

Datametricx

October 6, 2025 at 11:56 AM IST

iStock.com

India’s Growth Story Meets Its Consumption Wall

Tax breaks lift demand for now, but slowing income, weak investment, and US tariffs threaten to sap India’s growth momentum.

Shilpashree Venkatesh

October 4, 2025 at 12:54 PM IST

iStock.com

Monetary Policy

Review of MPC Decision: What Does it Mean to be Forward-Looking?

Is it forward-looking to let policy be decided by base effects, rather than encouraging the anchoring of inflation expectations at the target?

Ashima Goyal

October 1, 2025 at 5:26 PM IST

WRAP

Partly Monetary Policy, Largely Credit Policy

RBI holds repo rate at 5.5% but turns back to credit policy playbook, spurring lending while leaving December wide open for rate cuts.

BasisPoint Groupthink

October 1, 2025 at 12:22 PM IST

Poonam Gupta's tweet

Monetary Policy

RBI Reopens the Door to Accommodation

By keeping the repo unchanged yet signalling policy space, RBI corrects June’s misstep and restores credibility to its accommodative posture.

Kalyan Ram

October 1, 2025 at 8:31 AM IST

Screengrab

Monetary Policy

RBI Reopens Rate Door, December Cut Alive

RBI held repo at 5.5%, stance neutral. Malhotra kept powder dry, with inflation benign and growth risks making December a live meeting.

BasisPoint Insight

October 1, 2025 at 5:16 AM IST

Screengrab from a RBI Press Conference

Monetary Policy Should Look Beyond Repo Rate Cut

RBI’s 100 bps repo cut has lowered EMIs for existing borrowers, but new loans remain costlier. Liquidity gaps, sticky deposits, and high bond yields stall full transmission.

K. Srinivasa Rao

September 26, 2025 at 11:12 AM IST

Bajaj Auto Rolls Out Festive Offers on Motorcycles Under 350 cc

BasisPoint Insight

September 24, 2025 at 6:43 AM IST

Monetary Policy

India’s Wage Malaise Leaves RBI Little Room to Hide

With inflation subdued and nominal growth slipping, structural reforms and monetary easing must work together. The October policy is a test of intent.

Yield Scribe

September 23, 2025 at 6:42 AM IST

iStock.com

Smartphones to Pharma, India’s Key Exports to US Take a Hit

Some tariff-free products are collapsing despite facing zero duties, while several highly-taxed sectors are showing surprising resilience

Ajay Srivastava

September 22, 2025 at 3:39 PM IST

iStock.com/wsfurlan

India’s Households Signal Fragile Revival, Rural Tilt

Disinflation and policy support have created space, but without robust income growth the festive-season boost may fall short.

Dhananjay Sinha

September 16, 2025 at 7:53 AM IST

iStock.com

GST Shake-Up Leaves Auto Dealers Stranded With Dead Credits

The withdrawal of the compensation cess has stranded about ₹25 billion of input tax credits across the automobile trade. Here is the legal position and possible remedies.

Manuj Sabharwal

September 15, 2025 at 9:29 AM IST

iStock.com

Week in Numbers – Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

With retail inflation trending below projections, GST rate cuts, potential Fed easing, and US tariffs weighing on India’s growth, the window for an RBI rate cut in December may be opening.

Datametricx

September 15, 2025 at 4:27 AM IST

iStock.com

Trump’s Queen of Hearts Tariffs

Trump’s tariffs may sting, but India channels Ali’s art—floating lightly and stinging sharply when the timing is right.

Michael Debabrata Patra

September 15, 2025 at 3:21 AM IST

Via WikiCommons

Bihar 2025

Tight Race; Voter Turnout, Last Minute Swings Remain Key

Vote Vibe's Bihar Survey: Jan Suraj may be the decider in knife-edge contests—like LJP was in 2020, when its votes exceeded winning margins in 73 of 243 seats.

Amitabh Tiwari

September 12, 2025 at 12:35 PM IST

iStock.com

Can India's Consumption Engine Outrun Trump's Trade Shock?

India is betting that tax relief will keep consumption strong even as tariffs squeeze exports. But policy follow-through may be the key.

Alok Kumar Mishra

Iti Vyas

September 11, 2025 at 8:39 AM IST

IStock/RealPictures

Moody’s: GST Reforms to Lift Consumption, Strain Revenues but Won’t Derail Fiscal Consolidation

BasisPoint Insight

September 11, 2025 at 7:06 AM IST

GST Exemptions, Nil Rates and Other Smoke and Mirrors

GST relief looks big on paper, but gaps in input credit and energy taxes mean consumers will see less benefit than portrayed.

TK Arun

September 9, 2025 at 8:13 AM IST

iStock.com

What the GST Rate Cuts Cannot Cure

Can lower GST rates push India’s consumption story forward, or will structural problems like flat wages, joblessness, and shrinking savings blunt the impact?

Rajesh Mahapatra

September 8, 2025 at 1:44 PM IST

iStock.com

Week in Numbers – Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

The GST reforms, slowdown in tax collections and the likely sops to protect the export sector from the US tariffs are likely to put pressure on government finances this year.

Datametricx

September 8, 2025 at 9:48 AM IST

Finance Ministry

Trying to be a “Good Economist” in the Times of US Tariffs

Can tariffs be judged only by their visible impact? Bastiat’s wisdom suggests otherwise: true economists look beyond first effects to hidden costs, shifts, and long-term risks.

Vijay Chauhan

September 8, 2025 at 7:20 AM IST

White House/Via WikiCommons

Ban It, Bill It

By outlawing online money gaming but taxing it at 40%, India turns prohibition into revenue collection and blurs the line between morality and money.

Krishnadevan V

September 5, 2025 at 2:58 PM IST

iStock.com

GST Overhaul Seen Adding 0.7-0.8% to GDP this Year

BasisPoint Insight

September 5, 2025 at 11:07 AM IST

The Unfinished Business of GST 2.0: EoDB

GST 2.0 has rationalised rates, but unless processes are simplified and mindsets modernised, the promise of genuine ease of doing business will remain elusive.

Srinath Sridharan

September 4, 2025 at 4:30 PM IST

iStock.com

GST 2.0 Shifts India’s Growth Strategy from Highways to Homes

India’s tax overhaul tilts growth strategy back towards households, but the bet on demand revival must not crowd out investment.

Madhavi Arora

September 4, 2025 at 3:13 PM IST

iStocks/triloks

India Hopes GST Rate Cuts Might Have Just Triggered Its Biggest Consumer Boom

India's GST overhaul delivers massive stimulus at ₹480 billion cost, hoping to bolster consumption.

Krishnadevan V

September 4, 2025 at 2:03 PM IST

iStock.com

Opposition’s Silence, Centre’s Smirk

GST Council drama fizzled as opposition states fell silent, leaving the Centre to claim consensus and race ahead with tax reforms.

North (Un)Block

September 4, 2025 at 7:04 AM IST

Finance Ministry

GST Reset Seeks Equity and Growth Amid Fiscal Knot

India’s GST overhaul shifts the burden from households to luxury and sin goods, but revenue losses raise questions over fiscal sustainability.

Dhananjay Sinha

September 4, 2025 at 3:26 AM IST

Finance Ministry

Nominal Weakness Tells the Real Story for RBI

Headline GDP growth flatters to deceive. Weak nominal expansion and tariff shocks mean the RBI must maintain an easing bias.

BasisPoint Insight

September 1, 2025 at 7:12 AM IST

iStock.com

GST Reset May Leave States Largely Unscathed

Revenue fears from GST slab cuts seem overdone. With the compensation cess as a cushion, states face only a modest and manageable impact.

Datametricx

August 29, 2025 at 7:10 AM IST

gstcouncil.gov.in

GST Reboot Risks Fiscal Strain More Than it Promises Growth

India’s proposed GST rejig is being billed as a Diwali bonanza. The risk is that it leaves state finances stretched without delivering a real consumption boost.

N. Srinivasa Rao

August 23, 2025 at 6:59 AM IST

iStock.com

Independence Day, Interrupted by GST

What happens when Independence Day collides with tax reform? For reporters, a holiday turned into GST Day as North Block dropped its surprise two-rate blueprint.

North (Un)Block

August 21, 2025 at 8:53 AM IST

iStock.com

GST Reboot to Test Promise vs Reality

Prime Minister’s promise of a GST reboot has lifted markets, but the risks of patchy passthroughs, state resistance and fiscal strains could blunt the festive cheer.

Rajesh Mahapatra

August 19, 2025 at 6:22 PM IST

istock.com/natbits

GST Rate Cuts and Simplification Must Go Hand in Hand

GST reform promises direct cost relief for manufacturers, while exports stand to gain from fixing inverted duty structures and quicker credit pass-through.

Nilanjan Banik

August 17, 2025 at 9:12 AM IST

IStock.com/paulprescott72

GST Reset Faces Revenue and State Test

The Centre’s bold push for a two-slab GST by Diwali promises relief for households and MSMEs, but consensus with states and revenue arithmetic will be the real test.

Najib Shah

August 17, 2025 at 6:17 AM IST

iStock.com

Rules 2.0: Rethinking Compliance to Build Trust and Inclusion in India’s Economy

In India, compliance often feels like control, not trust. If ease of doing business is truly the goal, why aren’t these bureaucratic obstacles being dismantled?

Srinath Sridharan

August 16, 2025 at 7:11 AM IST

iStock.com

Centre Proposes Two-Slab GST, Lower Taxes on Essentials in Reform Push

The Centre’s proposal will now move to the Group of Ministers constituted by the GST Council, where an agreement will hinge on the state governments’ comfort with the potential revenue impacts of lower rates.

BasisPoint Insight

August 15, 2025 at 9:19 AM IST

iStock.com

GST Rate Cuts Can Lift Demand, But Fiscal Balancing Will Be Key

Cutting GST rates on essentials could spark a broader demand revival than past schemes, but fiscal space and state consensus will decide success.

Dhananjay Sinha

August 15, 2025 at 8:08 AM IST

istock.com/natbits

Modi Links Self-Reliance Push to Tariff Threat, Unveils Jobs, Tax Reforms

Modi unveils jobs, GST relief, and major security, energy, and tech plans, framing them as a tariff-proofing Swadeshi push.

BasisPoint Insight

August 15, 2025 at 4:34 AM IST

Screengrab (PIB)

Interview

PM Adviser Sanyal Bats for Process Reforms, Plays Down Trump’s Jibes

Sanjeev Sanyal says India’s growth is intact, urges process reforms, and calls TCS layoffs part of healthy tech churn.

Krishnadevan V

August 7, 2025 at 7:20 AM IST

Wrong Messaging When the State Comes for Anna‑data on the Footpath

Broadening the net should mean including those with real capacity, rather than chasing the smallest trader with penalties built on data alone. Reform must begin by trusting citizens, while still asking the better-off to pay their share.

Srinath Sridharan

Anand Venkatanarayanan

August 1, 2025 at 7:24 AM IST

iStock.com

RBI Steps in With ₹500 Billion VRR as Call Rate Hits Corridor Ceiling

BasisPoint Insight

July 23, 2025 at 8:01 AM IST

India’s Recovery Plan Is Missing Its Fiscal Half

While the RBI has acted to support growth, the Finance Ministry’s virtual silence since the Budget leaves policy looking oddly one-handed.

Dhananjay Sinha

Kalyan Ram

July 20, 2025 at 6:52 AM IST

India Can’t End Corruption, But It Can End Its Celebration

The fight against corruption must go beyond tracing its origins to stop its public celebrations. Only when illicit wealth is harder to flaunt will its social currency collapse.

Srinath Sridharan

Anil Kariwala

July 11, 2025 at 3:52 AM IST

iStock.com

Monetary Transmission Is Both Alive And Dead Like Schrödinger’s Cat

Liquidity is plentiful, rates are low, yet credit growth is muted. Monetary transmission in India remains a paradox that defies easy solutions.

Yield Scribe

July 7, 2025 at 5:13 AM IST

iStock.com

Monsoon Mask Fails to Hide India’s Industrial Demand Weakness

June’s industrial slump goes beyond weather disruptions, exposing deeper cracks in consumer demand that policymakers cannot ignore.

BasisPoint Groupthink

July 2, 2025 at 12:55 PM IST

iStock.com

Is India’s Demographic Dividend Turning Into A Liability?

India’s demographic edge could become an economic burden without urgent policy coherence, private sector trust, and focus on real job creation.

Sanjay Mansabdar

June 21, 2025 at 5:39 AM IST

Mubarakansari/Via Wikicommons

Lower Fuel Prices Matter More Than Rate Cuts In Boosting Vehicle Sales

BasisPoint Insight

June 13, 2025 at 8:08 AM IST

Interview

India’s Fiscal Fault Lines Risk Derailing Viksit Bharat Vision: Subbarao

The former RBI Governor warns that weak state finances, freebies, and Centre–state rifts could upend India’s journey to becoming a truly developed economy.

Kalyan Ram

June 6, 2025 at 3:30 AM IST

GST Surge Doesn’t Mean India’s Growth Is Real

Robust tax collections are masking a more fragile consumption economy. The strength in GST collections reflects pro-cyclical fiscal tightening and an elevated tax burden on households, rather than productivity gains or higher income.

Dhananjay Sinha

June 3, 2025 at 7:46 AM IST

Economic Activity Holds Up Despite Turbulence; Consumption Softens

GST collections and export growth remained robust in April, but high-frequency indicators point to weakening rural demand. Inflation print strengthens the case for more rate cuts.

BasisPoint Groupthink

May 16, 2025 at 1:34 PM IST

IStock.com/paulprescott72

GST Collections Cross ₹2 Trillion, Led by March Momentum

GST revenue surged to a record ₹2.367 trillion in April, supported by March’s spike in e-way bills and strong inter-state trade flows.

BasisPoint Insight

May 2, 2025 at 10:26 AM IST

istock.com/natbits

India’s Federal Compact Needs Trust, Not Just Transactions

India's federalism is at a crossroads. True collaboration between the Centre and states must be built on trust and shared responsibility, not just convenience.

Srinath Sridharan

April 25, 2025 at 12:16 PM IST

File Photo

Navigating the GST Landscape: Fixing Pain Points, Charting A Way Forward

Despite years of tweaks, India’s GST regime still stumbles on rate muddles, compliance woes and refund delays. A proper fix needs political will.

Najib Shah

Rajesh Mahapatra

April 14, 2025 at 5:16 AM IST

istock.com/natbits

GST 2.0: Next Steps For India's Tax System

With GST at a critical juncture, the Council must push key reforms to sustain revenue, simplify compliance, and drive India's growth ambitions.

N. Srinivasa Rao

March 13, 2025 at 11:45 AM IST

istock.com/natbits

Explainer

Why Is The Indian Finance Minister Hinting At A GST Reduction Now?

India's GST rethink comes amid economic headwinds. Will a tax cut be enough to counter slowing demand and US tariffs? A deeper look.

Alok Kumar Mishra

March 11, 2025 at 6:13 AM IST

GST Rate Rationalisation: A Delicate Dance Between Reform and Revenue

As GST rate rationalisation is discussed, the complexities of exemptions, revenue impact, and the future of tax reform take centre stage.

Najib Shah

March 11, 2025 at 4:17 AM IST

PIB

The Bureau

Oil Surge Rekindles Inflation Worries; Investors Await Trump–Xi Diplomacy

India’s Processed Potato Exports Surge as Asia’s Snack Demand Booms

When Infrastructure Kills the Vibe, Ambition Turns Up the Volume

Green crackers, Sahara-SEBI, Digital Arrest, Asian Paints, and more

CoinDCX Raises Again — Is India’s Crypto Winter Finally Thawing?

India’s Exports to US Fall 20% in September as Trump Tariffs Bite: GTRI

MPC Keeps Powder Dry as Rate-Cut Debate Heats Up

Mission Pulses: Does It Pack The Protein Punch India Needs?

Jallikattu: Tamil Nadu’s Ancient Bull-Taming Tradition