The GDP Debate India Should Welcome and Sustain

The argument over India’s growth numbers is healthy because it has shifted attention from identity politics to jobs, investment and policy.

BasisPoint Groupthink

September 4, 2026 at 6:05 AM IST

iStcoks/mgstudyo

US’ Whipsaw Trade Policy Is Depressing Foreign Direct Investment

Tariffs can deter investment, but policy uncertainty does far more damage: new research finds unpredictable trade policy can hit FDI about three times harder.

Jonathan D. Ostry

September 4, 2026 at 3:42 AM IST

White House

Growth: A Number That Has Stopped Persuading

India’s 7.8% growth beat forecasts, but weak jobs, private investment, net FDI and a softer rupee raise questions over how durable and broad-based the expansion is.

Arvind Mayaram

September 2, 2026 at 4:27 AM IST

iStock.com

India’s $700 Billion Reserve Buffer Carries a Forward Discount

India’s reserves are back above $700 billion, but costly swaps and forward liabilities make part of the buffer less usable than it appears.

V Thiagarajan

August 26, 2026 at 1:36 AM IST

istock.com

India Back on Net FDI Inflow Path in June After a Blip in May

BasisPoint Insight

August 25, 2026 at 1:24 PM IST

Monetary Policy

Review of the MPC Decision: The Fine Print on Outperformance

Behind the policy pause, easing inflation, stronger external buffers and broader investment point to a more resilient economy.

Ashima Goyal

August 5, 2026 at 2:27 PM IST

Screengrab

Beyond Rankings: NITI Aayog’s Investment Friendliness Index

States are being ranked on how attractive a destination they are for investors and businesses alike and rather than see this as a competition, they would do well to learn from each other, adopt proven reforms, and avoid common hurdles.

Ishtiyaque Ahmed

August 4, 2026 at 7:41 AM IST

istock.com

RBI Has Bought Time; India Must Now Earn Its Dollars

The RBI has bought stability with borrowed dollars. India must use this costly reprieve to boost growth, raise exports, retain capital, and restore investor confidence.

Kalyan Ram

August 4, 2026 at 4:27 AM IST

iStock.com

India Relaxes E-commerce FDI Rules, Marks First Step Towards Inventory-Based Model

BasisPoint Insight

July 24, 2026 at 7:16 AM IST

UNCTAD Investment Report Lauds India FDI Rebound, Masks Fragility

World Investment Report 2026 highlights global shocks and domestic policy uncertainty as reasons for volatility in India FDI inflows.

Sharmila Kantha

July 21, 2026 at 5:21 AM IST

Istock.com

Week in Numbers: Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

High-frequency indicators pointed to a significant slowdown in growth in May. However, with the ceasefire between the US and Iran holding and energy prices easing, growth is likely to improve in the coming months.

Datametricx

June 28, 2026 at 12:23 PM IST

istock.com

India Should Discourage Excessive Investments in Equities

As money pours into equities, foreign investors cash out at lofty valuations, raising pressure on the rupee and creating wider economic risks.

Vivek Kaul

June 18, 2026 at 7:11 AM IST

istock.com

Not Every Oil Shock or Sharp Currency Move is 1991

Oil shocks always warrant vigilance, but this time around India’s external buffers, services export strength, and improved policy framework make 1991 analogies more distracting than useful.

BasisPoint Groupthink

June 16, 2026 at 2:27 AM IST

iStock.com

Why This Rupee Episode Is Different

The rupee’s decline is the mildest in decades. The bigger challenge is converting temporary inflows into lasting external stability.

Sameer Narang

June 15, 2026 at 4:55 AM IST

India’s Balance of Payments: Time for a New Paradigm

Foreign capital solved yesterday's problem. It may now be standing in the way of tomorrow's growth.

Jayanth R. Varma

June 15, 2026 at 3:36 AM IST

Istock.com

A Tale of Two Forces: Navigating India's Exogenous and Endogenous Factors

While India cannot do much for external factors, it is time the government takes a strong look at what reforms it can bring in to stabilise the economy and lead the next phase of growth.

Nilanjan Banik

June 10, 2026 at 10:54 AM IST

istock.com

Highlights Of India’s BoP For January-March 2025-26

BasisPoint Insight

June 8, 2026 at 1:14 PM IST

Beyond Signing FTAs: What India's Trade Strategy Needs Next

India is poised to operationalise multiple FTAs. But with low rates and industrial policy misaligned with trade objectives, agreements alone may not be enough.

Rochelle Prakash

Deep Pal

June 8, 2026 at 6:51 AM IST

Istock.com

India's Growth Puzzle Is Really About Capability

India's growth challenge may lie less in capital or demand and more in whether the economy is building capabilities to compete, innovate, and move up the value chain.

Arvind Mayaram

June 5, 2026 at 8:09 AM IST

Istock.com

India’s Low-Equilibrium Growth Trap is the Real Stagflation Risk

India’s growth story is increasingly at odds with household realities. Weak incomes, falling savings and stagnant private capex, not merely oil shocks, are the bigger risks.

Dhananjay Sinha

June 1, 2026 at 5:13 AM IST

istock.com

Opinion

The Costs of Governing India Through Election Cycles

The West Asia crisis has exposed vulnerabilities India ignored for years as electoral calculations repeatedly outweighed economic reform.

Avanti Bhati

May 29, 2026 at 6:32 AM IST

Istock.com

Week in Numbers: Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

Data released during the week showed that the Indian economy slowed amid the war in West Asia and the sharp rise in crude oil prices, though the moderation was not as severe as initially feared.

Datametricx

May 23, 2026 at 11:20 AM IST

Istock.com

How India’s 2015 Model BIT Hurt Investor Confidence

India risks appearing wary of the legal protections global investors rely on, just as external sector pressures demand durable foreign capital.

Arvind Mayaram

May 23, 2026 at 7:53 AM IST

iStock.com

Goldilocks to Locking in Gold: Misread Signals, Austerity and Market Reactions

A weakening rupee, volatile capital flows and policy mixed signals are reviving questions over India’s external resilience amid a fresh oil-driven macro shock.

Smita Roy Trivedi

Abhiman Das

May 15, 2026 at 12:58 PM IST

Istock.com

Gold, the Rupee and India’s External Sector Déjà Vu

As balance-of-payments pressures intensify and the rupee weakens, policymakers once again appear to be searching for the easiest pressure valve without paralysing the productive economy.

Arvind Mayaram

May 14, 2026 at 2:58 PM IST

iStock.com

India’s External Sector Needs a New Compact with Global Capital

India’s external-sector debate needs to evolve beyond the old binary of safe CAD thresholds while also avoiding overly rigid distinctions between good and bad capital.

Duvvuri Subbarao

May 11, 2026 at 2:57 AM IST

iStock.com

Op Sindoor and the Resetting of India’s Engagement with the West

Pakistan is protecting Anglo-Saxon interests in West Asia, for which it was created by the British Empire, and the US, in turn, is offering it security, while a Russia-India-China huddle promises greater multilateralism and sovereignty

Rajesh Ramachandran

May 7, 2026 at 7:32 AM IST

PMO

RBI Leans on FDI, Trade Deals as Rupee Tests Record Lows

As the rupee weakens and portfolio flows turn volatile, the RBI is doubling down on FDI and trade deals to anchor India’s external financing.

BasisPoint Groupthink

May 2, 2026 at 6:03 AM IST

iStock.com

India’s China Filter Isn’t an Opening, It’s a Calibration

India’s PN3 tweak unclogs global capital flows while keeping Chinese investment tightly controlled, signalling calibration rather than a policy thaw.

North (Un)Block

April 28, 2026 at 1:13 PM IST

PMO/Via WikiCommons

Week in Numbers: Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

Latest data paint a mixed picture of the impact of the West Asia conflict on the Indian economy. While core sector growth fell to a 19-month low in March, the composite PMI pointed to a sharp improvement in overall activity in April.

Datametricx

April 25, 2026 at 5:18 AM IST

iStock.com

RBI Reframes Signals from Capital Flows

RBI messaging is split between cyclical optimism and structural detachment, reframing the way markets interpret FPI outflows amid stronger FDI and steady fundamentals.

BasisPoint Groupthink

April 14, 2026 at 8:12 AM IST

Monetary Policy

Rupee Weakness Tests RBI, but Rate Action May Wait

External pressures are mounting, yet inflation dynamics and growth risks favour a wait-and-watch stance

Anubhuti Sahay

April 7, 2026 at 9:13 AM IST

Week in Numbers: Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

The war in West Asia is weighing on the Indian economy, with higher crude oil prices and trade route disruptions dampening economic activity.

Datametricx

March 28, 2026 at 12:30 PM IST

Screengrab from "RBI Unlocked: Beyond the Rupee" series (JioHotstar)

Press Note 3 Amendment Unlikely to Attract Significant Chinese FDI in Manufacturing

PN2 eases rules for minority Chinese-linked holdings, but geopolitics, supply-chain risks and weak evidence on technology transfer may still limit meaningful manufacturing FDI.

Sharmila Kantha

March 28, 2026 at 8:06 AM IST

Istock.com

Amending Press Note 3 Was the Easy Part

India has eased Press Note 3 rules, but investors need predictability. Without clear screening rules, faster approvals and transparency, capital may stay away.

Deep Pal

March 13, 2026 at 3:41 PM IST

iStock.com/Chinmayi Shroff

India’s Easing of Border FDI Curbs May Only Gradually Deepen Manufacturing

BasisPoint Insight

March 11, 2026 at 1:44 PM IST

India Eases Curbs on FDI from Neighbouring Countries, Balancing Security With Manufacturing Push

BasisPoint Insight

March 11, 2026 at 5:48 AM IST

Istock.com

Services Exports, Remittances Seen Keeping India’s CAD Sustainable in 2025-26: RBI

The RBI expects strong services exports and steady remittance inflows should keep India’s current account deficit sustainable in 2025-26, despite trade pressures and portfolio outflows.

BasisPoint Insight

February 6, 2026 at 6:27 AM IST

Week in Numbers: Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

The high-frequency indicators pointed to an improvement in economic activity at the start of the year, suggesting stronger momentum in January.

Datametricx

January 24, 2026 at 11:25 AM IST

istock.com

Week in Numbers: Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

Notwithstanding the robust growth reported in the latest GDP numbers, high-frequency indicators point to anaemic momentum in industrial activity.

Datametricx

December 27, 2025 at 11:39 AM IST

istock.com

Beyond the FDI ‘Collapse’: Why India Needs Better Narratives, Not Panic

A 96% drop in net FDI is real. Treating it as a verdict is the mistake. India’s challenge lies in reading capital cycles, not panicking over single data points.

Kirti Tarang Pande

December 16, 2025 at 7:08 AM IST

Istock.com

Week in Numbers: Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

The RBI has a nice problem to have – a booming economy and record-low inflation. This may make the MPC’s policy decision a tighter call and keep markets on tenterhooks.

Datametricx

November 29, 2025 at 1:07 PM IST

iStock.com

Interview

IMF Flags Rupee Regime as ‘Crawl-Like Peg’ as RBI Steps Up Intervention

IMF’s new tag on India’s exchange-rate regime raises fresh questions on RBI’s FX strategy as the rupee hits new lows, says veteran trader Venkat Thiagarajan.

Rajesh Mahapatra

November 28, 2025 at 8:18 AM IST

iStock.com

Yes, Open Up Ecommerce Inventory to FDI — Just for Export

A wedge has a thin edge for a reason. The export crisis sparked by Trump-era trade shocks is a chance for India to reform e-commerce—starting with allowing inventory for exports.

TK Arun

November 9, 2025 at 5:23 AM IST

iStock.com/MAGNIFIER

A Clear Choice: Open FDI Fully or Close the Door

India’s regulatory half-measures diminish investor confidence and stifle growth. It is time to choose decisively rather than muddle through ambiguity.

Srinath Sridharan

November 6, 2025 at 7:13 AM IST

Week in Numbers: Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

Early October data showed no significant boost in private-sector activity, even though the full impact of the GST rate cuts had taken effect.

Datametricx

October 25, 2025 at 2:28 AM IST

Indian Navy

Riding Giants: How India May Catch the Next Big FDI Swell

Trump’s tariffs may unleash a new FDI swell, with reforms, startups and geopolitics aligning as India readies to ride the next big wave.

Michael Debabrata Patra

October 15, 2025 at 3:34 AM IST

iStock.com

Week in Numbers – Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

The sharp jump in core sector output in August has raised hopes of stronger industrial growth during the month, following a string of anaemic readings.

Datametricx

September 29, 2025 at 7:15 AM IST

Via WikiCommons

India’s Outbound Investment Surge Signals Confidence, Not Flight

India Inc’s surge in overseas investment is less about an alternative to domestic investments than a strategic embrace of global markets, technology, and supply chains.

Sharmila Kantha

September 15, 2025 at 8:02 AM IST

ONGC Videsh

Week in Numbers – Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

India’s GDP growth in April-June surprises sharply on the upside, even as downside risks emerge from Trump’s punitive tariffs on India.

Datametricx

September 1, 2025 at 9:11 AM IST

iStcoks/mgstudyo

RBI Should Rethink Its FX Swap Playbook Amid Trump Tariff Threats

Ample liquidity tempts RBI to deliver on its $5 billion swap, but rising external risks call for preserving reserves and slowing forward unwinding.

BasisPoint Groupthink

July 31, 2025 at 3:44 AM IST

iStock.com

Foreign Money Cold on India’s Insurance Gamble

Government plans to sell stakes in state insurers face tepid global interest, with high taxes, fraud and mistrust clouding a $280 billion market.

Alpana Killawala

July 28, 2025 at 11:44 AM IST

IRDAI

India Faces Stronger External Headwinds As Global Risks Intensify

As the world economy cools and risks multiply, India’s growth story depends on reviving investment, supporting credit, and building resilience.

BasisPoint Insight

July 3, 2025 at 12:19 PM IST

Pavel Muravev/iStock.com

Interview

Tata Or Batata? Nilesh Shah Lays Out India’s Market Mindmap

From HFT to FDI, inflation myths to rupee truth, Nilesh Shah maps India’s market future—in metaphors only he can mint.

BasisPoint Insight

June 26, 2025 at 4:29 AM IST

AI Generated

Is India’s Demographic Dividend Turning Into A Liability?

India’s demographic edge could become an economic burden without urgent policy coherence, private sector trust, and focus on real job creation.

Sanjay Mansabdar

June 21, 2025 at 5:39 AM IST

Mubarakansari/Via Wikicommons

Digest

The Morning Edge: FDI Into Europe Falls To 9-Year Low As Investor Caution Grows

A newsletter designed to prepare you for the day, offering a concise summary of overnight developments and key events ahead that could influence your workday.

Richard Fargose

May 15, 2025 at 1:16 AM IST

iStock.com/Chinmayi Shroff

India Is Losing Its FDI Edge—And That Should Worry Policymakers

Net foreign direct investment has plunged to a 17-year low. Repatriations and investments abroad are rising, and global rankings are slipping.

BasisPoint Insight

May 2, 2025 at 8:00 AM IST

iStock.com/Chinmayi Shroff

The Bureau

India Auto Retail Sales Hit Record High in August as EV Offtake Surges

Asia Stocks Rise on Tech Rally Despite Fresh US-Iran Confrontation

Govt Defends GDP Data, Rejects Claims of Window Dressing

CCI Finds Debenture Trustees Enforced Fee Floor

RBI May Shift From VRRRs to Short-Term Tools as FX Swap Inflows Flood System

Total FCNR(B) Inflows Under RBI Swap Window $127 Bln, Nearly Half of It in Last 10 days

India’s GDP Data Puzzle: Pronab Sen on Deflators, Revisions and Trust

The Foster Mother of Lodhi Garden