Selected Tag: Dhananjay Sinha
Selected Tag: Dhananjay Sinha
Dhananjay Sinha

Dhananjay Sinha

Dhananjay Sinha, CEO and Co-Head of Institutional Equities at Systematix Group, has over 25 years of experience in macroeconomics, strategy, and equity research. A prolific writer, Dhananjay is known for his data-driven views on markets, sectors, and cycles.

India Inc’s H2 Optimism Meets Relentless Data Headwinds

Analysts expect a sharp revival, but earnings, demand indicators and trade dynamics continue to signal caution in an economy still struggling for momentum.

Dhananjay Sinha

November 21, 2025 at 7:59 AM IST

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Global Fragmentation Demands New Thinking in Delhi

India’s response to global fragmentation must move beyond fiscal comfort and self-reliance slogans to tackle its chronic private-investment inertia.

Dhananjay Sinha

November 3, 2025 at 8:50 AM IST

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Finance Ministry

RBI’s External Confidence Masks India’s Domestic Weakness

India’s policy resilience is impressive, but ignoring faltering domestic engines like jobs, demand, and savings could prove costly.

Dhananjay Sinha

October 30, 2025 at 12:59 PM IST

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Gold’s Glow Can’t Revive India’s Spending

Surging gold prices have inflated household wealth on paper, yet the wealth effect remains mostly notional as weak incomes and high debt restrain spending.

Dhananjay Sinha

October 27, 2025 at 9:41 AM IST

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Monetary Policy

RBI’s Insulated Optimism Jars with Ground Reality

The central bank’s upbeat narrative of resilience overlooks stagnant earnings, weak credit demand, and intensifying global risks.

Dhananjay Sinha

October 1, 2025 at 11:39 AM IST

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How Post-COVID Tailwinds Triggered H-1B Pushback; Is Macro Reset the Answer?

The post-pandemic export surge drew US fire on visas. With services under pressure, India’s answer cannot be piecemeal—it must be a macro-level reset.

Dhananjay Sinha

September 21, 2025 at 3:28 PM IST

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India’s Households Signal Fragile Revival, Rural Tilt

Disinflation and policy support have created space, but without robust income growth the festive-season boost may fall short.

Dhananjay Sinha

September 16, 2025 at 7:53 AM IST

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GST Reset Seeks Equity and Growth Amid Fiscal Knot

India’s GST overhaul shifts the burden from households to luxury and sin goods, but revenue losses raise questions over fiscal sustainability.

Dhananjay Sinha

September 4, 2025 at 3:26 AM IST

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Finance Ministry

Tariffs, Stimulus and Stalled Earnings Weigh on India’s Markets

India’s markets face a rough ride as tariff wars collide with weak demand, policy trade-offs and fragile corporate performance.

Dhananjay Sinha

August 25, 2025 at 3:31 AM IST

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GST Rate Cuts Can Lift Demand, But Fiscal Balancing Will Be Key

Cutting GST rates on essentials could spark a broader demand revival than past schemes, but fiscal space and state consensus will decide success.

Dhananjay Sinha

August 15, 2025 at 8:08 AM IST

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S&P Upgrade Should Open a Window for Structural Reforms

India’s S&P upgrade to BBB boosts confidence. The real gain will come if it’s used to spur investment, jobs, and trade resilience.

Dhananjay Sinha

August 14, 2025 at 4:34 PM IST

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Monetary Policy

RBI’s Growth Hopes Mask Limits of Policy Easing

The RBI’s optimism on growth belies structural weaknesses and hints that the impact of front-loaded rate cuts may already be waning.

Dhananjay Sinha

August 6, 2025 at 2:14 PM IST

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Poonam Gupta

Trump’s Stridency Pushes India Into Tougher Trade Terrain

India’s optimism for a soft landing on US tariffs may prove misplaced as oil, defence and BRICS politics deepen fault lines in talks with Washington.

Dhananjay Sinha

July 31, 2025 at 5:12 PM IST

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White House

TCS Job Cuts

TCS Trims Fat as AI Shift Forces Rethink of India’s IT Growth Story

TCS’s 12,200 job cuts spotlight AI upheaval, margin strain and fading labour-cost advantages reshaping India’s IT services model.

Dhananjay Sinha

July 30, 2025 at 3:47 AM IST

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India’s Recovery Plan Is Missing Its Fiscal Half

While the RBI has acted to support growth, the Finance Ministry’s virtual silence since the Budget leaves policy looking oddly one-handed.

Dhananjay Sinha

Kalyan Ram

July 20, 2025 at 6:52 AM IST

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Tariffs and Earnings Slowdown Threaten India’s Market Rally

Relief rally is losing steam as Trump tariffs, slowing profits, and weak policy space cast a shadow over India’s market valuations.

Dhananjay Sinha

July 15, 2025 at 2:42 AM IST

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China’s REM Squeeze Threatens India’s Auto Sector Revival

A looming rare earth magnet shortage could stall India’s EV dreams, reshape supply chains and test the push for manufacturing self-reliance.

Dhananjay Sinha

July 9, 2025 at 9:50 AM IST

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India’s Inequality Narrative Collapses Under Economic Realities

Government claims of world-leading equality are misleading, masking rising income gaps, stagnant wages, and economic backsliding.

Dhananjay Sinha

July 9, 2025 at 3:41 AM IST

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Employment Incentive Scheme Faces Limits Of Supply-Side Approach

India’s ₹1 trillion Employment Linked Incentive Scheme banks on supply-side subsidies to address rising urban joblessness.

Dhananjay Sinha

July 1, 2025 at 5:06 PM IST

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Why The Current Demand Recovery Rings Hollow 

Rural wage gains and urban spending suggest recovery, but weak incomes, falling agri prices, and policy drag limit real momentum. 

Dhananjay Sinha

June 18, 2025 at 6:24 AM IST

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Monetary Policy

RBI Frontloads Hyper Accommodation

The RBI’s frontloaded stimulus lifts markets, but its ability to revive growth is constrained by weak income, tepid investment, and global drag.

Dhananjay Sinha

June 6, 2025 at 10:38 AM IST

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GST Surge Doesn’t Mean India’s Growth Is Real

Robust tax collections are masking a more fragile consumption economy. The strength in GST collections reflects pro-cyclical fiscal tightening and an elevated tax burden on households, rather than productivity gains or higher income.

Dhananjay Sinha

June 3, 2025 at 7:46 AM IST

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India’s GDP Numbers Look Good—Too Good To Trust

The January–March data is stronger than expected, but deeper fault lines remain in consumption, private investment, and household incomes.

Dhananjay Sinha

June 1, 2025 at 12:58 PM IST

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Buffer Reboot

Higher RBI Dividend Payout Now Comes With Stricter Framework

RBI’s recalibration of its risk buffer signals a shift from rigid rules to responsive resilience—putting prudence ahead of payouts in a world of rising uncertainty.

Dhananjay Sinha

May 25, 2025 at 4:11 AM IST

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Record RBI Dividend Payouts Are A Short-Term Fix With Long-Term Risks

Another likely record dividend to the Centre may offer fiscal relief, but could undermine monetary stability and currency management in an uncertain global climate.

Dhananjay Sinha

May 22, 2025 at 4:02 AM IST

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Easing Trade Anxiety Sparks A Recovery, But Can It Last? 

Indian equities have rebounded on easing trade and geopolitical tensions, but slowing global growth and high valuations raise doubts over the future strength.

Dhananjay Sinha

May 14, 2025 at 3:39 AM IST

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Private Capex Is Faltering, And Global Fragmentation May Be To Blame

India’s first forward-looking capex survey shows a sharp fall in 2025-26 plans, exposing demand worries and rising global trade uncertainty.

Dhananjay Sinha

April 30, 2025 at 5:26 AM IST

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India’s Consumption Story Rings Hollow Amid Income Fragility

Headline growth masks an unsettling truth: weak income growth is eroding the base of India’s consumption pyramid, raising questions on sustainability.

Dhananjay Sinha

April 28, 2025 at 7:20 AM IST

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Core Issue With India’s Inflation Isn’t Going Away

India’s headline inflation may have cooled, but seasonal effects mask the stickier rise in core prices—leaving RBI’s policy pivot on shaky ground.

Dhananjay Sinha

April 16, 2025 at 4:58 PM IST

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Trump’s Tactical Retreat May Deepen the Tariff Trap

The US President’s 90-day tariff climb-down masks a sharper focus on China, but his multifront trade war risks pushing America deeper into a bind.

Dhananjay Sinha

April 14, 2025 at 4:47 AM IST

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Monetary Policy

RBI’s Optimism Hinges On Questionable Insular Assumptions

Despite warning of trade risks, the central bank proceeds as if India’s economy exists in a vacuum

Dhananjay Sinha

April 9, 2025 at 1:54 PM IST

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Trump’s Tariff Shock Revives Mercantilism, Endangers Global Trade

Trump’s tariff blitz may hit India harder than expected, choking trade, compressing earnings, and testing the limits of domestic policy.

Dhananjay Sinha

April 4, 2025 at 6:36 AM IST

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Backhanded Nationalisation of VI, A Survival Jetpack Or A Transformational Pivot?

India’s quiet takeover of Vodafone Idea won’t fix telecom’s structural rot. Without deep reform, this rescue may just delay the inevitable.

Dhananjay Sinha

April 2, 2025 at 4:01 AM IST

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Gravity-defying GDP flouting the gravitating curve spread?

There is something amiss here; either the GDP numbers are out of whack, or the yield curve has lost its predictive mojo!

Dhananjay Sinha

April 1, 2025 at 5:21 AM IST

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Earnings Recovery May Stall Under The Weight Of Fiscal Fatigue

Market hopes for an earnings revival rest on shaky ground as fiscal drag, weak job creation and tepid wage growth tighten the income squeeze.

Dhananjay Sinha

March 29, 2025 at 8:27 AM IST

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India’s Consumption Comeback Story Is Built On Shaky Ground

Official GDP data suggests a surge in household demand. A closer look at wage trends and sentiment reveals that the rebound may be mostly a mirage.

Dhananjay Sinha

March 28, 2025 at 6:16 AM IST

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Ruralisation Accelerates As Farm Growth Masks Falling Income

India's rural economy faces rising job stress as farm GVA surges but wages stagnate. A policy reset is crucial to prevent prolonged economic strain.

Dhananjay Sinha

March 12, 2025 at 1:26 PM IST

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Interview: Reality Of Trump's Economic Promises: A Closer Look with Dhananjay Sinha

Rajesh Mahapatra

Dhananjay Sinha

March 11, 2025 at 4:27 PM IST

A Volatile Path To A Post-Meltdown Rebound

A rebound in the Indian equity market is certain, but the road to recovery is unlikely to be steady amid deeper macroeconomic pressures. 

Dhananjay Sinha

March 5, 2025 at 7:05 PM IST

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Behind India’s Third Quarter GDP Glow Lies A Widening Data Credibility Gap

India’s GDP revisions bank on robust consumption, but weak corporate sales, output & imports expose a widening data disconnect.

Dhananjay Sinha

March 3, 2025 at 7:26 AM IST

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RBI

Policy Flip On NBFC Rules Adds To Confounding Incrementalism

The rollback of NBFC lending curbs exposes deeper anxieties over rupee stability and structural economic frailties.

Dhananjay Sinha

February 28, 2025 at 4:13 AM IST

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Is RBI Navigating With An Outmoded Compass?

Persistent inflation, structural economic shifts, and misaligned policy rates suggest the RBI’s outdated framework risks deepening India’s imbalances.

Dhananjay Sinha

February 20, 2025 at 6:10 AM IST

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Markets Aren’t Buying The Growth Narrative

Markets remain skeptical despite the push from the Budget and the RBI’s policy measures. Growth projections appear unrealistic, corporate earnings continue to underwhelm, and rate cut decisions seem inconsistent.

Dhananjay Sinha

February 13, 2025 at 3:00 AM IST

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RBI

Monetary Policy

Will RBI’s Acquiescence To Rate-Cut Demand Work?

India’s growth revival deserves structural policy redressal rather than counter-cyclical monetary easing.

Dhananjay Sinha

February 7, 2025 at 1:02 PM IST

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Budget Has A Hint Of Consumption Impetus But Overwhelming Fiscal Drag

The Union Budget attempts to address the concerns of rising household income distress, but the fiscal math is overly optimistic on the revenue side and cautious on spending. The fiscal knot may persist into 2025-2026, which may lead to continued reductions in capital outlays. With total expenditure falling short of projected nominal GDP growth in 2025-2026, the glide path implies ongoing fiscal drag. The impact of the income tax rebate amounts to just 0.5% of household consumption.

Dhananjay Sinha

February 1, 2025 at 1:18 PM IST

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Does The Budget Have The Bandwidth To Resurrect Growth? 

India’s macroeconomic outlook is constrained by sluggish corporate profits, weak private capex, and declining household incomes, raising concerns ahead of the 2025-26 Budget. Despite efforts to pivot towards employment-linked incentives, fiscal tightening and high public debt could limit the government's ability to drive growth.

Dhananjay Sinha

January 30, 2025 at 9:11 AM IST

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PIB

The Bureau

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