Week in Numbers: Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

The latest retail inflation and current account deficit data were positive surprises despite the war in West Asia.

Datametricx

June 13, 2026 at 11:19 AM IST

istock.com

India May Inflation Stays Below 4%; Food Inflation Rises to 4.78%

BasisPoint Insight

June 12, 2026 at 12:23 PM IST

Monetary Policy's New Catch-22

With consumer inflation appearing repressed despite mounting price pressures, the RBI's decision to prioritise capital inflows over rate hikes carries growing risks.

Rupa Rege Nitsure

June 8, 2026 at 5:26 AM IST

Istock.com

Monetary Policy

RBI MPC raises India FY27 CPI inflation forecast to 5.1% from 4.6% earlier

The Monetary Policy Committee raised its forecast due to higher crude oil prices. Global supply chain disruptions, commodity price shocks, uncertainty over distribution of southwest monsoon, and El Niño conditions also pose upside risks, it said.

BasisPoint Insight

June 5, 2026 at 6:29 AM IST

istock.com

Monetary Policy

Risk-Reward Trade-Off Favours a Hawkish Hold by RBI MPC

RBI may hold rates, but rupee pressure, crude risks and Taylor-rule arithmetic argue for a more hawkish policy tone.

Abhishek Upadhyay

June 2, 2026 at 3:04 AM IST

Monetary Policy

The RBI's June Dilemma: Credibility Without the Hike

The macro backdrop has deteriorated materially since April. But the case for a June rate hike is weaker than the market noise suggests.

Radhika Piplani

May 29, 2026 at 12:08 PM IST

Monetary Policy

Will RBI Bite the Bullet or Kick the Can Down the Road, Again?

As inflation risks mount and the rupee weakens, questions grow over whether the RBI delayed policy action despite warning signals.

Abhiman Das

Smita Roy Trivedi

May 27, 2026 at 7:52 AM IST

istock.com

Fuel Prices Raised Fourth Time This Month; Petrol, Diesel Up nearly ₹7.5/Litre Since May 15

With the latest revision, petrol prices in Delhi have risen cumulatively by ₹7.35 per litre and diesel by ₹7.53 per litre since May 15..

BasisPoint Insight

May 25, 2026 at 1:41 AM IST

iStock.com

Fuel Prices Raised Again by 90 Paise/Litre Amid Higher Global Crude Costs

Petrol and diesel prices rose again after last week’s hike as OMCs continued passing on higher global crude and freight costs to consumers.

BasisPoint Insight

May 19, 2026 at 1:28 AM IST

iStock.com

Week in Numbers: Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

WPI inflation soared in April, reflecting the impact of the war in West Asia on prices. CPI inflation, however, remains well below as the government has allowed only limited pass-through of price increases.

Datametricx

May 16, 2026 at 12:03 PM IST

istocks/imaginima

Fuel Price Revision Triggers Reassessment of FY27 CPI Trajectory: Economists

India’s fuel price hike may push 2026-2027 inflation above RBI estimates, with economists warning of broader spillovers across sectors.

BasisPoint Insight

May 15, 2026 at 4:07 PM IST

India’s April CPI Inflation Rises to 3.48%, Food Prices Continue to Drive Upward Pressure

BasisPoint Insight

May 12, 2026 at 11:48 AM IST

India's GCC Moment: Turning Global Turbulence Into Advantage

As war and energy shocks darken the global outlook, India’s global capability centres could emerge as the country’s most resilient economic buffer.

Nilanjan Banik

May 12, 2026 at 7:12 AM IST

Istock.com

RBI’s Gupta Flags Possible Tweaks to Inflation Framework at 2031 Review

BasisPoint Insight

May 5, 2026 at 1:05 PM IST

Week in Numbers: Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

High-frequency data suggest that the Indian economy has slowed in March due to the war in West Asia, though less than feared.

Datametricx

May 3, 2026 at 5:41 AM IST

Istock.com

March CPI Rises to 3.40%, Highest in 12 Months as Food Prices Firm Up

BasisPoint Insight

April 13, 2026 at 11:54 AM IST

Monetary Policy

Uncertainty Begets Monetary Policy Uncertainty

As geopolitical shocks cloud the outlook, the RBI leans on caution, keeping policy steady for now, while keeping options open.

Mridul Saggar

April 9, 2026 at 11:55 AM IST

iStock.com

Monetary Policy

Staying on Pause May Be the Optimal Policy Response to a Supply-Shock

With uncertainty elevated, RBI’s optimal response is to stay on pause and ensure ample liquidity, while fiscal policy takes the lead in cushioning supply shocks and rising energy costs.

Gaura Sen Gupta

April 9, 2026 at 11:18 AM IST

Monetary Policy

Not Out of the Woods Yet

If inflation becomes broad based, policy choices become harder. Credibility considerations emerge even if headline inflation remains below the upper tolerance limit

Dhiraj Nim

April 9, 2026 at 9:49 AM IST

linkedin.com/Poonam Gupta

Monetary Policy

RBI Stays on Hold, but Signals Flexibility in a Shifting Risk Landscape

A ceasefire eased the backdrop, but RBI’s message was clear: policy stays flexible, FX steps are temporary, and risks to growth and inflation remain live.

Aastha Gudwani

April 8, 2026 at 1:03 PM IST

Monetary Policy

RBI Holds Repo Rate at 5.25% Amid Global Uncertainty: Key Policy Takeaways

BasisPoint Insight

April 8, 2026 at 5:56 AM IST

Juvaida Khatun/Istock

Monetary Policy

Rupee Weakness Tests RBI, but Rate Action May Wait

External pressures are mounting, yet inflation dynamics and growth risks favour a wait-and-watch stance

Anubhuti Sahay

April 7, 2026 at 9:13 AM IST

Oil Shock From Iran Conflict May Test RBI’s Policy Comfort

A surge in crude prices and rupee weakness could complicate the RBI’s benign inflation outlook if the West Asia conflict proves prolonged.

Richard Fargose

March 13, 2026 at 2:26 AM IST

Poonam Gupta/LinkedIn

India’s Retail Inflation Rises to 3.21% in February as Food Prices Edge Higher

BasisPoint Insight

March 12, 2026 at 12:17 PM IST

iStock.com

Week in Numbers: Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

The biggest surprise about India’s new GDP series released this week was that it did not throw up any surprises.

Datametricx

February 28, 2026 at 1:13 PM IST

iStock.com

MPC Review

MPC Opts for Patience as Data Revisions Loom, Trade Deals Lift Growth Outlook

BasisPoint Insight

February 20, 2026 at 1:26 PM IST

Juvaida Khatun/Istock

BofA Lowers FY27 CPI Forecast as New Series Shows No Major Trend Shift

BasisPoint Insight

February 19, 2026 at 9:13 AM IST

New CPI Base Year Improves Confidence for Bold Policy Initiatives

Revised weights, softer underlying inflation and corridor liquidity dynamics suggest room for calibrated action in April, subject to incoming data.

Barendra Kumar Bhoi

February 17, 2026 at 3:31 AM IST

iStock.com

The Morning Edge

Asian markets steady as softer US inflation tempers volatility

Here’s your quick read to start the day: a chatty, no-fuss look at overnight moves, the big story, what’s on the docket, and the tickers you need to watch.

Richard Fargose

February 16, 2026 at 1:36 AM IST

US Federal Reserve

Week in Numbers: Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

New CPI series suggests that underlying inflation may be softer than previously assumed, even as headline print remains broadly similar with the old series.

Datametricx

February 14, 2026 at 10:43 AM IST

Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation

India’s January Inflation 2.75% Under New Series Versus 1.33% in December Under Old Series

BasisPoint Insight

February 12, 2026 at 11:49 AM IST

MPC Review

RBI Raises Inflation Projections Marginally for Apr-Sep; Defers FY27 Forecast to April

RBI has nudged up near-term inflation projections on higher precious metal prices, while deferring FY27 forecasts to April pending the new CPI series, maintaining a broadly benign outlook.

BasisPoint Insight

February 6, 2026 at 6:27 AM IST

Week in Numbers: Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

December data showed a sharp improvement in industrial output and fiscal metrics, indicating a firmer economy and improving government finances.

Datametricx

January 31, 2026 at 1:02 PM IST

Istock.com

Economic Survey: Pivots, Paradoxes, and Policy Questions

A selective reading of the Survey’s sharper propositions—on exports, manufacturing, institutional capacity, and the paradox of strong macro numbers in a fragmented global order.

Yuvika Singhal

January 30, 2026 at 6:27 AM IST

PIB

New CPI Weights May Lift Headline Inflation by 20–30 bps on Average: SBI Research

BasisPoint Insight

January 29, 2026 at 3:24 PM IST

Week in Numbers: Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

Retail inflation edged up but stayed well below the RBI’s tolerance band, while automobile sales recorded their strongest growth in years.

Datametricx

January 17, 2026 at 12:54 PM IST

istock.com/natbits

December CPI Rises to 1.33% as Food Deflation Narrows; Quarter Print Above RBI Forecast

BasisPoint Insight

January 12, 2026 at 11:31 AM IST

iStock.com

New CPI Series to Smooth Inflation Swings, Keeping 2026 Price Pressures Largely in Check

India’s new CPI series with a 2024 base is set to smooth food-driven volatility, keeping 2026 inflation pressures contained. With core inflation stable and costs muted, price signals should become clearer for monetary policy.

BasisPoint Insight

January 9, 2026 at 11:00 AM IST

The Morning Edge

Asia Slides as Tech Selloff and Geopolitics Drive Risk-Off Mood

Here’s your quick read to start the day: a chatty, no-fuss look at overnight moves, the big story, what’s on the docket, and the tickers you need to watch.

Richard Fargose

December 18, 2025 at 1:39 AM IST

European Central Bank

Monetary Policy

Goodbye Inflation, See You in Next Cycle

The RBI’s rate cut reflects the end of an inflation cycle that began in 2022 and collapsed spectacularly in 2025.

BasisPoint Groupthink

December 5, 2025 at 8:00 AM IST

Base-Year Syndrome in India’s Real GDP Growth

High real GDP and low inflation reflect more statistical noise than economic strength. Outdated base years distort India’s growth picture and complicate policy choices.

Barendra Kumar Bhoi

December 3, 2025 at 2:45 AM IST

McKay Savage/Via Wikicommons

Monetary Policy

A Rate Cut Now Could Strengthen India’s Growth Cushion

With inflation at historic lows and growth surprising on the upside, the RBI may opt for a calibrated repo rate cut to protect India’s global position.

K. Srinivasa Rao

December 1, 2025 at 7:02 AM IST

Monetary Policy

Inflation Targeting Needs Flexibility, Not Unanimity

When monetary consensus turns to groupthink, inflation targeting risks losing its flexibility—and its purpose.

Ashima Goyal

November 13, 2025 at 2:35 AM IST

Retail Inflation Hits Record Low in Current Series, To Test RBI’s Statement on Space For Rate Cut

BasisPoint Insight

November 12, 2025 at 12:25 PM IST

Tentative Cut Likely Again; RBI May Prioritise Liquidity, Transmission

The RBI may cut rates again in April, but the focus will be on liquidity infusion and stronger pressure on banks to transmit cumulative cuts effectively.

BasisPoint Groupthink

March 20, 2025 at 6:59 AM IST

RBI

CPI Inflation Slips In Below RBI Target, Core Slips Out

February inflation fell below the RBI’s target. With growth in focus, another rate cut in April looks increasingly likely.

BasisPoint Insight

March 12, 2025 at 12:44 PM IST

Retail Inflation Eases Below RBI's Target As Vegetable Prices Cool Down

BasisPoint Insight

March 12, 2025 at 10:48 AM IST

The Bureau

Why India Should Delay Deeper Trade Ties With US

India May Inflation Stays Below 4%; Food Inflation Rises to 4.78%

Benchmarks Post Best Session in Two Months on US-Iran Peace Hopes

Oil Slides, Equities Jump on Optimism Over US-Iran Peace Accord

Highlights Of India’s BoP For January-March 2025-26

Foreign Money Returns but Conviction Remains Short

Services Cushion India’s BoP as Trade Gap, FPI Outflows Bite

Flawed Design, Poor Planning Make Extreme Heat Conditions Worse For Indian Cities

Learning to Shoot: I Tried to Fly Before I Could Walk