March CPI Rises to 3.40%, Highest in 12 Months as Food Prices Firm Up

BasisPoint Insight

April 13, 2026 at 11:54 AM IST

Monetary Policy

Uncertainty Begets Monetary Policy Uncertainty

As geopolitical shocks cloud the outlook, the RBI leans on caution, keeping policy steady for now, while keeping options open.

Mridul Saggar

April 9, 2026 at 11:55 AM IST

iStock.com

Monetary Policy

Staying on Pause May Be the Optimal Policy Response to a Supply-Shock

With uncertainty elevated, RBI’s optimal response is to stay on pause and ensure ample liquidity, while fiscal policy takes the lead in cushioning supply shocks and rising energy costs.

Gaura Sen Gupta

April 9, 2026 at 11:18 AM IST

Monetary Policy

Not Out of the Woods Yet

If inflation becomes broad based, policy choices become harder. Credibility considerations emerge even if headline inflation remains below the upper tolerance limit

Dhiraj Nim

April 9, 2026 at 9:49 AM IST

linkedin.com/Poonam Gupta

Monetary Policy

RBI Stays on Hold, but Signals Flexibility in a Shifting Risk Landscape

A ceasefire eased the backdrop, but RBI’s message was clear: policy stays flexible, FX steps are temporary, and risks to growth and inflation remain live.

Aastha Gudwani

April 8, 2026 at 1:03 PM IST

Monetary Policy

RBI Holds Repo Rate at 5.25% Amid Global Uncertainty: Key Policy Takeaways

BasisPoint Insight

April 8, 2026 at 5:56 AM IST

Juvaida Khatun/Istock

Monetary Policy

Rupee Weakness Tests RBI, but Rate Action May Wait

External pressures are mounting, yet inflation dynamics and growth risks favour a wait-and-watch stance

Anubhuti Sahay

April 7, 2026 at 9:13 AM IST

Oil Shock From Iran Conflict May Test RBI’s Policy Comfort

A surge in crude prices and rupee weakness could complicate the RBI’s benign inflation outlook if the West Asia conflict proves prolonged.

Richard Fargose

March 13, 2026 at 2:26 AM IST

Poonam Gupta/LinkedIn

India’s Retail Inflation Rises to 3.21% in February as Food Prices Edge Higher

BasisPoint Insight

March 12, 2026 at 12:17 PM IST

iStock.com

Week in Numbers: Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

The biggest surprise about India’s new GDP series released this week was that it did not throw up any surprises.

Datametricx

February 28, 2026 at 1:13 PM IST

iStock.com

MPC Review

MPC Opts for Patience as Data Revisions Loom, Trade Deals Lift Growth Outlook

BasisPoint Insight

February 20, 2026 at 1:26 PM IST

Juvaida Khatun/Istock

BofA Lowers FY27 CPI Forecast as New Series Shows No Major Trend Shift

BasisPoint Insight

February 19, 2026 at 9:13 AM IST

New CPI Base Year Improves Confidence for Bold Policy Initiatives

Revised weights, softer underlying inflation and corridor liquidity dynamics suggest room for calibrated action in April, subject to incoming data.

Barendra Kumar Bhoi

February 17, 2026 at 3:31 AM IST

iStock.com

The Morning Edge

Asian markets steady as softer US inflation tempers volatility

Here’s your quick read to start the day: a chatty, no-fuss look at overnight moves, the big story, what’s on the docket, and the tickers you need to watch.

Richard Fargose

February 16, 2026 at 1:36 AM IST

US Federal Reserve

Week in Numbers: Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

New CPI series suggests that underlying inflation may be softer than previously assumed, even as headline print remains broadly similar with the old series.

Datametricx

February 14, 2026 at 10:43 AM IST

Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation

India’s January Inflation 2.75% Under New Series Versus 1.33% in December Under Old Series

BasisPoint Insight

February 12, 2026 at 11:49 AM IST

MPC Review

RBI Raises Inflation Projections Marginally for Apr-Sep; Defers FY27 Forecast to April

RBI has nudged up near-term inflation projections on higher precious metal prices, while deferring FY27 forecasts to April pending the new CPI series, maintaining a broadly benign outlook.

BasisPoint Insight

February 6, 2026 at 6:27 AM IST

Week in Numbers: Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

December data showed a sharp improvement in industrial output and fiscal metrics, indicating a firmer economy and improving government finances.

Datametricx

January 31, 2026 at 1:02 PM IST

Istock.com

Economic Survey: Pivots, Paradoxes, and Policy Questions

A selective reading of the Survey’s sharper propositions—on exports, manufacturing, institutional capacity, and the paradox of strong macro numbers in a fragmented global order.

Yuvika Singhal

January 30, 2026 at 6:27 AM IST

PIB

New CPI Weights May Lift Headline Inflation by 20–30 bps on Average: SBI Research

BasisPoint Insight

January 29, 2026 at 3:24 PM IST

Week in Numbers: Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

Retail inflation edged up but stayed well below the RBI’s tolerance band, while automobile sales recorded their strongest growth in years.

Datametricx

January 17, 2026 at 12:54 PM IST

istock.com/natbits

December CPI Rises to 1.33% as Food Deflation Narrows; Quarter Print Above RBI Forecast

BasisPoint Insight

January 12, 2026 at 11:31 AM IST

iStock.com

New CPI Series to Smooth Inflation Swings, Keeping 2026 Price Pressures Largely in Check

India’s new CPI series with a 2024 base is set to smooth food-driven volatility, keeping 2026 inflation pressures contained. With core inflation stable and costs muted, price signals should become clearer for monetary policy.

BasisPoint Insight

January 9, 2026 at 11:00 AM IST

The Morning Edge

Asia Slides as Tech Selloff and Geopolitics Drive Risk-Off Mood

Here’s your quick read to start the day: a chatty, no-fuss look at overnight moves, the big story, what’s on the docket, and the tickers you need to watch.

Richard Fargose

December 18, 2025 at 1:39 AM IST

European Central Bank

Monetary Policy

Goodbye Inflation, See You in Next Cycle

The RBI’s rate cut reflects the end of an inflation cycle that began in 2022 and collapsed spectacularly in 2025.

BasisPoint Groupthink

December 5, 2025 at 8:00 AM IST

Base-Year Syndrome in India’s Real GDP Growth

High real GDP and low inflation reflect more statistical noise than economic strength. Outdated base years distort India’s growth picture and complicate policy choices.

Barendra Kumar Bhoi

December 3, 2025 at 2:45 AM IST

McKay Savage/Via Wikicommons

Monetary Policy

A Rate Cut Now Could Strengthen India’s Growth Cushion

With inflation at historic lows and growth surprising on the upside, the RBI may opt for a calibrated repo rate cut to protect India’s global position.

K. Srinivasa Rao

December 1, 2025 at 7:02 AM IST

Monetary Policy

Inflation Targeting Needs Flexibility, Not Unanimity

When monetary consensus turns to groupthink, inflation targeting risks losing its flexibility—and its purpose.

Ashima Goyal

November 13, 2025 at 2:35 AM IST

Retail Inflation Hits Record Low in Current Series, To Test RBI’s Statement on Space For Rate Cut

BasisPoint Insight

November 12, 2025 at 12:25 PM IST

Tentative Cut Likely Again; RBI May Prioritise Liquidity, Transmission

The RBI may cut rates again in April, but the focus will be on liquidity infusion and stronger pressure on banks to transmit cumulative cuts effectively.

BasisPoint Groupthink

March 20, 2025 at 6:59 AM IST

RBI

CPI Inflation Slips In Below RBI Target, Core Slips Out

February inflation fell below the RBI’s target. With growth in focus, another rate cut in April looks increasingly likely.

BasisPoint Insight

March 12, 2025 at 12:44 PM IST

Retail Inflation Eases Below RBI's Target As Vegetable Prices Cool Down

BasisPoint Insight

March 12, 2025 at 10:48 AM IST

The Bureau

UAE to Exit OPEC, Citing Strategic Shift in Energy Policy

Asian Markets Drift Lower Ahead of BOJ Decision and Iran Developments

India–New Zealand FTA: Services & Mobility May Outweigh Goods Bargain

India’s Textile and Garment Exports Slip in Real Terms

Brent Crude Above $106 as Hormuz Tensions Cloud Global Supply Outlook

US Tariff Refund: India’s $12 Billion Gain Hinges on Case-to-Case Negotiations

RBI Bulletin Warns of Risks to Inflation from Second-Round Effects of West Asia Conflict

NSE Moves Closer to IPO as SEBI Settlement Panel Finalises Penalty in Co-Location Case: Reports

Deficient Monsoon, Iran War: A Double Shock to India’s Rural Economy

Learning to Shoot: I Tried to Fly Before I Could Walk