With six months left for the “semi-final” to the 2029 Lok Sabha elections, real politicking has started in the crucial state of Uttar Pradesh. After losing to SP+ in the 2024 general elections, the BJP is now trying to woo the SC community as it faces the anti-incumbency factor after being in power for 10 years.

The SP+, on its part, is strategising to hold onto the support it received from the SC community, and benefit from the expected further decline in BSP’s support base. While the BSP is battling an existential crisis, Chandrasekhar Azad’s ASP is aiming to tap youth voters of the community.

The SC community accounts for 21% of the state population. Jatavs, the community that Mayawati hails from, account for 54% of this population. Jatavs are followed by Pasis (16%) and Dhobis (6%). Pasis, Dhobis, Koris, Khatiks, Dhanuks and other SCs are called non-Jatavs, and account for 46% of the Dalit population. Dalits have been loyal backers of the late Kanshi Ram, and later the Mayawati-led Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) both in state and general elections.

However, a section of Dalits, especially the non-Jatavs, have veered towards the BJP over the years. The BJP accused Mayawati of favouring her ‘jaati’ in positions within the party and in cornering most reservation in jobs and schemes benefits, which worked on the ground. They moved to SP+ in 2024 on the "constitution in danger" narrative.

Jatav SC (12%) — historically BSP's core base

• BSP's hold has been steadily eroding: From 87% in the 2017 state elections to 65% in 2022, and then down to 44% in 2024 in the Lok Sabha polls. The party has lost more than half its 2017 support among Jatavs in seven years, though it still leads this group as party chief Mayawati hails from this community. 
• BJP+ tripled its share: From 8% in 2017 to 21% in 2022 and then 24% in 2024, showing a gradual but real inroad into a community once seen as BSP's most loyal vote bank.
• SP+ made the sharpest jump, especially in 2024 in the wake of the “samvidhan khatre mein hai” campaign: from 4% to 10% and then to 25%. This is the standout shift — SP nearly caught up with BJP+ among Jatavs by 2024.
• BSP is still ahead, but is no longer dominant; the Jatav vote is fragmenting three ways, with SP+ gaining the most momentum recently. 
• In the 2027 state elections, the key question is, will BSP be able to hold onto this only support segment left, or will it move towards BJP or SP?

 Voting pattern of SC in UP (Source: CSDS)

 

Non-Jatav SC (9%) — traditionally more contested

• BJP+ rose, then fell: 32% in 2017 to 41% in 2022 and 29% in 2024, suggesting a peak in 2022 followed by a pullback in 2024. BJP’s success in UP from 2014 to 2022 is on account of its social engineering formula wherein it created an umbrella coalition of upper caste, Non-Yadav OBCs and Non-Jatav SCs. It exploited the differences between Yadavs and Non-Yadavs, Jatavs and non-Jatavs. 
• SP+ shows a dramatic surge: From 13% in 2017 to 27% in 2022 and 56% in 2024. This is the most striking trend in the whole table — SP+ effectively captured a majority of the Non-Jatav SC vote by 2024 riding on the “samvidhan khatre mein hai” narrative. 
• The Non-Jatav SC vote moved from BSP to BJP, and then to SP+INC (INDIA bloc). Due to this transfer from BJP to SP+, the INDIA bloc dealt a big blow to the incumbent in UP, winning 43/80 seats which ultimately led to the BJP tally falling to 240 at the national level. 
• BSP collapse: From 44% in 2017 to 27% in 2022 to 15% in 2024, losing roughly two-thirds of its 2017 support.
• Non-Jatav SC voters swung heavily toward SP+ in 2024, largely at the expense of both BSP and BJP+. It is now crucial for BJP+ to get back this vote in its fold to continue its winning streak in the 2027 election. The "constitution in danger” narrative has now weakened, and the SP+ alliance is looking for a new narrative.

The Cross-Cutting Pattern
In both groups, BSP is on a consistent downward trajectory across all three elections — this is the clearest trend in the data. SP+ is the biggest beneficiary of the BSP's decline, especially among Non-Jatav SCs, where it appears to have consolidated a large anti-BJP/anti-BSP coalition by 2024. BJP+ gained ground among Jatavs, but lost ground among Non-Jatavs between 2022 and 2024 — an uneven trajectory depending on sub-caste.

Seat-Wise Jatav Influence
The overwhelming majority of seats (254) have a Jatav population under 10%, and another 126 have 10–20%. Only 23 seats have the Jatav population above 20%, and just one seat exceeds 40%. The community's direct electoral leverage is concentrated in around 150 seats, which have a Jatav population higher than state average of 12%. 

The 2027 Battle
Samajwadi Party (SP) National President Akhilesh Yadav officially unveiled a new navy-blue dress code for its student wing, the Samajwadi Chhatra Sabha. Members will wear navy-blue T-shirts paired with blue jeans and the party's traditional red cap. The choice of the colour blue is a strategic political move in Uttar Pradesh. It signals alignment with the legacy of Dr B.R. Ambedkar, and the Bahujan movement as part of the party's broader "PDA" (Pichhde, Dalit, Alpsankhyak) outreach strategy.

On the other hand, its alliance partner Congress is raking up the alleged insult of National President Mallikarjun Kharge in BJP-ruled Uttarakhand. The SP+ combine is banking on its PDA formula, while the BJP is trying to woo the SC community through welfare schemes.

An interesting battle on the cards in UP.