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Ajay Srivastava, founder of Global Trade Research Initiative, is an ex-Indian Trade Service officer with expertise in WTO and FTA negotiations.
September 22, 2026 at 3:37 PM IST
A claim that India exported petroleum products worth $91.8 million to Russia through Egypt needs closer examination.
The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, or CREA, a Helsinki HQ research Group, in its report August 2026—Monthly Analysis of Russian Fossil Fuel Exports and Sanctions, says Russia imported petroleum products worth €114 million in August. It estimates that India supplied 70%—€79.8 million, or about $91.8 million.
CREA says the fuel left Nayara Energy’s Vadinar refinery, was transferred between ships in the Damietta Lightering Zone off Egypt, and was finally unloaded at Russia’s Arctic port of Beloe More.
India’s official trade data do not show petroleum exports of this size directly to Russia. Product-level data for August are not yet available, so GTRI made an estimate using July’s product share.
India exported goods worth $391 million to Russia in July 2026. Petroleum products accounted for just 0.7%, or $2.7 million. Total exports to Russia rose to $401 million in August. If petroleum products retained their July share, their estimated value would be only $2.8 million—barely 3% of CREA’s $91.8 million estimate.
India’s exports to Egypt tell a different story. Petroleum products accounted for 37.1% of India’s exports to Egypt in July, worth $172.7 million. India’s total exports to Egypt reached $811 million in August. At the same 37.1% share, petroleum exports would be worth about $300.9 million—more than three times the amount CREA says reached Russia.
The data make an indirect route through Egypt possible, but do not prove that the $91.8 million cargo was intended for Russia when it left India. That would require evidence connecting the Vadinar refinery, original buyer and invoice, ship-to-ship transfer at Damietta, ownership of the cargo at every stage, and final unloading at Beloe More.
If the fuel was sold and delivered to an Egyptian buyer, with Egypt declared as its destination, India’s commercial and customs responsibility ended there. Any later resale or diversion was the buyer’s decision. The position would differ only if the Egyptian route was planned from the beginning to hide Russia as the true destination.
Vessel movements alone cannot establish the full commercial chain. Moreover, Russia is not under UN trade sanctions. Restrictions imposed by the US, EU and others do not automatically bind India.
CREA is an independent research organisation headquartered in Helsinki, Finland, that tracks global energy flows, air pollution and sanctions on Russian fossil-fuel trade.
But its focus on shipments worth less than $100 million appears disproportionate when global oil trade runs into hundreds of billions of dollars. The claim deserves scrutiny, not sensationalism.
India’s exports of Petroleum Products to Russia
· April 2025-March2026-$9.7 mn
· April-July 2026-$6.5 mn
· July 2026-$2.7 mn
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Estimating India’s Petroleum Product Exports to Russia-$ Million |
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|
Period |
Petroleum Products |
Total Exports |
Share of Petroleum Products in total exports (%) |
|
April 2025-March2026 |
9.7 |
4494 |
0.2 |
|
April-July 2026 |
6.5 |
1635 |
0.4 |
|
July 2026 |
2.7 |
391 |
0.7 |
|
Aug 2026-announced |
Not announced |
401 |
|
|
Aug 2026-Estimated |
2.8 |
|
Assuming Share of petroleum products in Aug 2026 remains same as in July 2026 |
|
Estimating India’s Petroleum Product Exports to Egypt-US$ Million |
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|
Period |
Petroleum Products |
Total Exports |
Share of Petroleum Products in total exports (%) |
|
July 2026 |
172.7 |
466 |
37.1 |
|
Aug 2026-announced |
Not announced |
811 |
|
|
Aug 2026-Estimated |
300.6 |
|
Assuming Share of petroleum products in Aug 2026 remains same as in July 2026 |