India’s US Exports Rebound After Four Consecutive Months of Decline

India’s October trade data released today brought good news amid ongoing pressure from US tariffs. India’s exports to the US climbed to $6.3 billion in October, a 14.5% rebound from $5.5 billion in September and the first monthly rise since May despite the 50% tariff.

Although October exports of $6.3 billion are 8.6% lower than the $6.9 billion recorded in October 2024, the month-on-month rise from September is a welcome improvement.

Product-wise data for US for October are not yet available, but tariff-exempt sectors such as smartphones and pharmaceuticals may have performed better—though this remains only a tentative assumption.

Despite the October rebound, India’s shipments to the US have dropped nearly 28.4% between May and October, erasing more than $2.5 billion in monthly export value.

October was the second full month in which most Indian goods have faced Washington’s 50% tariff. 

The slide began after May 2025, when exports last grew—rising 4.8% to $8.8 billion. They then fell steadily: down 5.7% in June to $8.3 billion, 3.6% in July to $8.0 billion, 13.8% in August to $6.9 billion, and a sharp 20.3% in September, before recovering in October.

Country wise Performance — October 2025 vs October 2024
India’s export performance in October 2025 was sharply uneven across top 20 markets. 
Only five of the twenty tracked destinations recorded year-on-year growth. The strongest gains came from Spain (+43.43%), driven largely by higher petroleum product shipments, and China (+42.35%). More modest increases were seen in Hong Kong (+6.00%), Brazil (+3.54%), and Belgium (+2.22%).

The remaining fifteen markets posted declines, highlighting broad external weakness. Exports fell to the United States (–8.58%) and UAE (–10.17%), while several destinations saw far sharper drops: Singapore (–54.85%), Australia (–52.42%), Italy (–27.66%), UK (–27.16%), and the Netherlands (–22.75%). Shipments also contracted to Malaysia (–22.68%), Korea (–16.43%), Germany (–15.14%), France (–14.28%), Bangladesh (–14.10%), Nepal (–12.64%), South Africa (–7.54%), and Saudi Arabia (–1.12%).

Globally, India’s exports declined by 11.8%. Overall, India saw growth in just five markets and declines in fifteen, reflecting a patchy and fragile export landscape. 

Surge in Gold and Silver Imports 
India’s merchandise imports rose 16.5% in October 2025 to $73.2 billion, driven largely by a sharp spike in precious metals. 

Gold imports jumped 188.2% to $14.7 billion, and silver imports rose 528.7% to $2.7 billion from a year earlier. 

The surge is notable because India’s gems and jewellery exports fell 29.5% in October, indicating that most of the gold and silver inflows are feeding domestic demand rather than export production.

India’s Month-wise Exports to the US