SBI Research sees RBI rate hikes in Oct, Dec on oil, CPI risks

BasisPoint Insight

September 12, 2026 at 10:52 AM IST

Masterclass with Michael Patra

How the RBI Manages Liquidity, From the LAF Corridor to Sterilisation and Beyond

Michael Patra explains how the RBI manages liquidity, from sterilisation and CRR operations to forecasting and the LAF corridor’s role in transmission.

Michael Debabrata Patra

August 28, 2026 at 3:06 AM IST

RBI’s Inflation Test Is Moving From Food and Fuel to the Wider Economy

As food prices push retail inflation above target, the RBI holds steady on rates, wagering that commodity shocks won't trigger wage-setting behaviour.

Sagari Gupta

August 14, 2026 at 7:20 AM IST

Istock.com

OIS Curve Prices in Rate Hike by December on Persistent West Asia Worries

Srijita Bose

Nandinee Keluskar

July 24, 2026 at 8:25 AM IST

RBI’s Capital Flows Strategy Faces Risks in a Rising Rate World

By relying on capital inflows and intervention instead of rate hikes, the RBI may be postponing inflation and currency pressures rather than resolving them.

Smita Roy Trivedi

Abhiman Das

June 23, 2026 at 5:58 AM IST

iStock.com

Monetary Policy

RBI Defends the Framework, Not the Rupee

The RBI chose capital-flow measures over rate action, reinforcing the principle that inflation and growth, not the exchange rate, remain monetary policy's primary mandate.

BasisPoint Groupthink

June 5, 2026 at 6:08 AM IST

istock.com

RBI Holds Rates, Keeps Neutral Stance as Inflation Risks Rise

The central bank raised its inflation forecast and lowered its GDP projection as policymakers assessed the impact of higher energy prices, supply-chain disruptions and monsoon-related risks.

BasisPoint Insight

June 5, 2026 at 5:30 AM IST

Istock.com

RBI Holds Rates, Keeps Neutral Stance as Inflation Risks Rise

The Monetary Policy Committee kept the repo rate unchanged at 5.25%, retaining its neutral policy stance.

BasisPoint Insight

June 5, 2026 at 4:44 AM IST

istock.com

Monetary Policy

RBI Expected to Hold Rates, Focus Turns to Inflation and the Rupee

The RBI is expected to keep rates unchanged, but rising oil prices, a weak rupee and inflation risks could shift focus towards future policy tightening.

Team BasisPoint

June 3, 2026 at 6:22 AM IST

istock.com

Monetary Policy

Calm Policy, Stormy Skies

A prolonged pause is expected through 2026-27, but the bias has shifted. What once hinted at easing now suggests the next move is more likely a hike than a cut.

Shubhada Rao, Vivek Kumar, and Yuvika Singhal

April 10, 2026 at 2:06 AM IST

iStock.com

MPC Review

RBI Minutes Show Neutral Is No Longer Tactical

Neutral is no longer a pause before easing. February’s minutes recast it as a strategy, with April’s data reset pivotal.

BasisPoint Groupthink

February 22, 2026 at 11:24 AM IST

Poonam Gupta/LinkedIn

New CPI Base Year Improves Confidence for Bold Policy Initiatives

Revised weights, softer underlying inflation and corridor liquidity dynamics suggest room for calibrated action in April, subject to incoming data.

Barendra Kumar Bhoi

February 17, 2026 at 3:31 AM IST

iStock.com

MPC Review

Liquidity Signals Keep Transmission in Focus

RBI held rates steady, but without fresh liquidity measures, bond yields hardened, funding spreads remained wide, and transmission risks took centre stage.

Shailendra Jhingan

February 6, 2026 at 12:25 PM IST

Poonam Gupta/LinkedIn

MPC Review

RBI Signals the End of Easing as Markets Begin to Question Comfort

Policy stability risks being mistaken for financial stability. The easing cycle may have ended, but the adjustment it triggered is far from complete.

Dhananjay Sinha

February 6, 2026 at 10:53 AM IST

MPC Review

Malhotra Signals Rates to Stay Low for Prolonger Period, Leaves Further Cuts to MPC

BasisPoint Insight

February 6, 2026 at 8:51 AM IST

MPC Review

RBI’s Easiest Decision May Be to Do Nothing

RBI likely to hold rates steady as growth holds firm and risks shift offshore

K. Srinivasa Rao

February 5, 2026 at 3:13 AM IST

MPC Review

RBI’s Rate-Cut Problem Is Not the Cut — It Is the Plumbing

India’s rate cuts are failing to move bond yields because the liquidity plumbing is broken, forcing markets to follow overnight rates rather than RBI signals.

D. Tripati Rao and Ritesh Gupta

February 4, 2026 at 6:43 AM IST

MPC Moves Signal the Arrival of a Post-Cycle Policy Regime

Below-target disinflation, a structural liquidity pivot, and the RBI’s sharp separation of stance from liquidity signal a new level of complexity that requires a post-cycle reading.

Kalyan Ram

December 10, 2025 at 7:01 AM IST

Monetary Policy

MPC Signals Maturity as Policy Counters Shocks with Confidence

India’s MPC breaks from old precautionary playbooks, using countercyclical policy and clearer signalling to steady growth, inflation and financial stability.

Ashima Goyal

December 8, 2025 at 3:30 AM IST

RBI Tweets

Monetary Policy

RBI’s Dovish Turn Clouds the Story of India’s Goldilocks Economy

Accommodative push contrasts with claims of strong growth and benign inflation

Dhananjay Sinha

December 5, 2025 at 3:27 PM IST

iStock.com

Malhotra’s RBI: Between Freedom and Friction

Malhotra completes his first year at the RBI next month. His tenure so far reveals a governor intent on pushing boundaries, loosening rules, and learning where freedom ends and systemic risk begins.

R. Gurumurthy

November 17, 2025 at 6:11 AM IST

RBI

Tale of Two Reports and the Inflation of Words

The RBI–SBI plagiarism spat turned research into theatre, proving that even economists now crave trending status.

R. Gurumurthy

October 26, 2025 at 5:05 AM IST

RBI Sitting on 100 bps of Policy Space

If inflation stays near 2.5% and growth around 6.7%, the Taylor rule implies nearly 100 basis points of policy space for the RBI to cut rates.

Barendra Kumar Bhoi

October 24, 2025 at 8:43 AM IST

WRAP

Partly Monetary Policy, Largely Credit Policy

RBI holds repo rate at 5.5% but turns back to credit policy playbook, spurring lending while leaving December wide open for rate cuts.

BasisPoint Groupthink

October 1, 2025 at 12:22 PM IST

Poonam Gupta's tweet

Monetary Policy

Is the Hunt for a Terminal Repo Rate a Distraction?

Markets may be too eager to bottom-fish for a terminal repo rate. In today’s fluid context, flexibility could matter more than fixation.

Kalyan Ram

October 1, 2025 at 9:34 AM IST

iStock.com

Monetary Policy

RBI Reopens Rate Door, December Cut Alive

RBI held repo at 5.5%, stance neutral. Malhotra kept powder dry, with inflation benign and growth risks making December a live meeting.

BasisPoint Insight

October 1, 2025 at 5:16 AM IST

Screengrab from a RBI Press Conference

Monetary Policy

No Matter What MPC Does, RBI Communication has to do Some Heavy Lifting

RBI’s biggest challenge is not what it does on rates, but how it explains the why, why not and what next to markets and the wider economy.

Mint Owl

September 30, 2025 at 12:34 PM IST

RBI

Why Credit Growth Remains Tepid in India

Healthy balance sheets can’t offset muted demand as higher real rates and global headwinds weigh on investment appetite.

Rudra Sensarma

August 30, 2025 at 5:35 AM IST

File Photo

The Bureau

Read the full text of BRICS New Delhi Declaration

SBI Research sees RBI rate hikes in Oct, Dec on oil, CPI risks

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BRICS Payment Push: Local Currencies, Not a Common Currency

Shifting RBI Signals Sap Gilt Trading; August Turnover Drops 20%

Poll: India August CPI Seen At 4.8%; inflation pressures broaden

India’s GDP Data Puzzle: Pronab Sen on Deflators, Revisions and Trust

The Foster Mother of Lodhi Garden