Wheat Under Heat: Rising Temperatures Raise Harvest Concerns

As the upcoming wheat crop matures and approaches harvest over the next few weeks, rising daytime temperatures across several northern Indian states could increase the risk of yield losses.

The government has set a production target of 119 million tonnes for 2025–26. As of January 31, the area under wheat cultivation stood at 33.4 million hectares, slightly above the 32.8 million hectares recorded last year.

For 2024–25, the government's production estimate was 117.9 million tonnes, although private estimates place output nearly 10 percent lower. The big question is whether elevated daytime temperatures in the coming weeks will hurt yields and reduce the size of the upcoming harvest.

While the key wheat-producing states of Punjab and Haryana continue to experience favourable weather, concerns are growing in states such as Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, where daytime temperatures have recently exceeded the crop-friendly range of 21 to 22 degrees Celsius.

It is widely acknowledged that Indian wheat is at the edge of its heat tolerance. In at least three of the past six years, the crop has suffered from moisture and heat stress, leading to reduced production, tighter supplies and rising prices.

Inadequate winter rains and moisture stress in key wheat-growing regions have heightened concerns over the upcoming harvest. Between January 1 and February 4, India recorded a 31% rainfall deficit compared to the normal. The situation is especially severe in the East and Northeast, including Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, which saw an 88% shortfall. Central India—primarily Madhya Pradesh—faced a 76% deficit, while the Northwest, covering Punjab and Haryana, recorded a 10% shortfall. 

Wheat exports have been banned since May 2022. Recently, the government has started allowing the export of limited quantities of wheat flour in a regulated manner and is still considering whether to lift the ban on wheat shipments.

As of January 1, wheat stocks held by the Food Corporation of India stood at 27.5 million tonnes. After accounting for allocations to various welfare programs, the stock may decline to about 20 million tonnes by April 1.

If weather-related risks materialise, they could not only reduce yields and harvest size but also drive up open market prices and complicate procurement efforts.

The procurement price for 2025–26 has been fixed at ₹2,585 per quintal, and current market rates are hovering near that level. Any weather disruptions could push prices higher.

Traders, processors and retailers were subject to stock limits for the past four years. The restriction was recently lifted following industry representation and a perceived improvement in market fundamentals. However, this move may prove counterproductive if weather risks adversely affect the upcoming wheat harvest.

The possibility of an El Nino event in the second half of 2026 remains a significant uncertainty. Whether it will be mild or severe is yet to be seen. El Nino is associated with dry weather, which could hurt Kharif crop prospects, including rice, and potentially support further wheat price increases.

This is not meant to raise alarm or claim that the wheat crop will certainly suffer heat stress. Rather, it is a cautionary note to policymakers about the risks ahead. Monitoring temperatures in key wheat-growing regions will provide early warning signals. Being forewarned is being forearmed.