Week in Numbers: Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

India’s merchandise exports surged 19.4% year-on-year to $38.13 billion in November, the fastest pace in 41 months. Part of the increase reflected a low base effect, as exports had contracted in the corresponding month in the previous two years.

Surprisingly, export growth was driven by a sharp rise in shipments to the US despite the 50% tariffs on Indian goods. India’s merchandise exports to the US rose 22.6% year-on-year to $6.98 billion in November. One factor behind this jump appears to be higher exports of smart phones assembled in India. According to commerce ministry data, India’s smart phone exports to the US trebled to $10.78 billion during April-October from $3.60 billion a year earlier. Smartphones are exempt from US reciprocal tariffs.

Imports contracted 1.9% to $62.66 billion in November, sharply narrowing the trade deficit. The deficit fell to $24.53 billion from $41.69 billion in October and $31.92 billion a year earlier.

Imports from the United Arab Emirates, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq declined in November, while imports from the US rose 38.3%, indicating a possible shift in source of crude oil and gas imports. The overall decline in imports was largely due to a sharp fall in gold imports, which dropped 59.2% year-on-year to $4.02 billion.

Wholesale price inflation rose to -0.32% in November from -1.21% a month earlier, marking the second consecutive month of deflation. The year-on-year decline was driven mainly by lower prices for food and fuel. However, prices of both categories rose sequentially during the month. The wholesale price index increased 0.7% month-on-month, the sharpest sequential rise in 13 months.

Core wholesale inflation remained unchanged at 1.5%. With base effects turning unfavourable, wholesale price inflation is likely to return to positive territory in December.

Growth in private-sector activity moderated across manufacturing and services. The HSBC Flash India Manufacturing PMI fell to a two-year low of 55.7 in December from 56.6 in November, reflecting slower growth in output, new orders, employment, stock purchases, and export orders. The Flash Services PMI eased to 59.1 from 59.8, pulling the Flash Composite Index down to a 10-month low of 58.9. Despite the slowdown, all three indices remained well above their long-term averages.

After contracting for two consecutive months, coal production rose 2.1% year-on-year to 92.68 million tonnes in November. Coal despatches, however, declined for a third consecutive month, falling 0.2% to 85.62 million tonnes. Demand has been weighed down by softer thermal power generation, higher renewable output and lower seasonal demand. Coal despatches to the power sector declined 4.1% to 66.83 million tonnes.

 

India’s unemployment rate fell to an eight-month low of 4.7% in November from 5.2% in October. Youth unemployment (ages 15-29) eased to 14.1%, while urban youth unemployment declined to 17.8%. The labour force participation rate for those aged 15 and above rose to a seven-month high of 55.8% from 55.4%.

External commercial borrowings by Indian companies fell sharply to $2.21 billion in October from $2.80 billion in September and $5.50 billion a year earlier. Agratas Energy Storage Solutions was the largest borrower with a $525 million loan, followed by Sammaan Capital at $450 million and Adani Solar Energy at $242.5 million.

Overseas direct investment by Indians declined 31% year-on-year to $2.04 billion in November. Outward investments in October stood at $3.68 billion. Equity investments rose 10% to $978 million, while loans fell 70% to $286 million and guarantees declined 30% to $772 million.

India’s foreign exchange reserves rose $1.69 billion week-on-week to $688.95 billion as of December 12. Foreign currency assets increased $907 million to $557.79 billion, while gold reserves rose $757 million to $107.74 billion. Despite continued RBI intervention, reserves have risen $20.62 billion so far in 2025-26, reflecting the gains in gold valuation.

 

Reserve money growth accelerated to 1.6% year-on-year as of December 12 from 0.8% a week earlier, driven by a rise in currency in circulation.

Government grain stocks remained at record highs. Rice stocks in the Central pool stood at 31.19 million tonnes as of December 1, the highest ever for the period. Total rice stocks, including unmilled paddy, were also at a record 57.57 million tonnes. Wheat stocks rose 29% year-on-year to 29.14 million tonnes, the highest in four years for December 1. Total grain stocks, including unmilled paddy, stood at record 86.71 million tonnes.

Although November rainfall was markedly deficient, post-monsoon season rainfall remained well above normal due to heavy showers in October. As of December 18, cumulative rainfall stood at 133.1 mm, 16% above the long-period average of 115.0 mm. Rainfall was 49% above normal in October but 47% below normal so far in November.

Reservoir storage recorded its sharpest week-on-week decline in 33 weeks as rainfall eased and rabi sowing gathered pace. As of December 18, 166 reservoirs held 151.45 billion cubic metres of water, down 3.77 billion cubic metres from the previous week. Storage levels were 7% higher than a year ago and 22% above the 10-year average.

Supported by early rains and healthy reservoir levels, rabi acreage remained higher. As of December 12, the area under rabi crops stood at 53.68 million hectares, up 4.7% year-on-year. Wheat acreage rose 6.6% to 27.57 million hectares, while pulses and oilseeds increased 1.6% to 11.71 million hectares and 3.1% to 8.98 million hectares, respectively.

Coming up

• Dec 22 – Index of Eight Core Industries for November
• Dec 28 – Index of Industrial Production for November
• Dec 31 – Government finances for Apr-Nov
• Jan 7   – First advance estimate of GDP for FY26 

Tailpiece
Oil marketing companies achieved 20% ethanol blending with petrol in November, meeting the target for the second consecutive month.