VoteVibe Exit Poll: NDA Set to Retain Bihar, But MGB Close Behind

The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is projected to emerge as the single largest alliance in the 2025 Bihar Assembly elections with a tally of 125-145 seats, according to the exit poll conducted by VoteVibe. The Mahagathbandhan (MGB) is expected to secure between 95 and 115 seats, while Jan Suraj may win one seat and Others around two.

Majority mark is 122 in Bihar. The lower end of VoteVibe for NDA is among the lowest in all exit polls, most of which predicted upwards of 130 seats for the ruling alliance. 

The poll has projected a vote share of 45.3% for the ruling NDA, compared to MGB’s 41.9% and Jan Suraj’s 5.2%. A significant gender divide underpins this edge: women voters favour the NDA by a wide 10.6-point margin.

Unemployment emerged as the single biggest issue, cited by 63.2% of voters and as high as 73.6% among the youth. CM preference mirrors the polarisation: Tejashwi Yadav leads overall with 35.2%, closely followed by Nitish Kumar at 33.4%, with Prashant Kishor a distant third at 9.3%. Nitish Kumar commands stronger support among women, while Tejashwi Yadav leads decisively among male and younger voters.

Chief Minister Nitish Kumar had got women support in last elections also due to rules prohibiting alcohol in the state. This is expected to have been consolidated further after his government’s 'Mukhyamantri Mahila Rozgar Yojana' led to transfer of ₹10,000 to the accounts of over 10 million women in the state.

Voting patterns remain deeply caste- and community-polarised. The NDA leads among General (64%), SC-ST (59.8%), and OBC/EBC (57.5%) groups, while MGB dominates among Muslims (79.1%) and Yadavs (74.5%). Jan Suraj shows consistent, albeit limited, appeal across segments and could act as a spoiler in tight contests.