India, the World’s Largest Silver Importer, Must not Ignore Processing

Silver delivered one of the sharpest commodity rallies of the year. After the US military operation in Venezuela, prices surged as investors rushed to safe-haven assets amid rising geopolitical risk.

In India, silver on the MCX climbed to ₹240,000–₹260,000 per kg in early January 2026, with current prices above ₹243,000 per kg. This marks an extraordinary jump from ₹80,000–₹85,000 per kg at the start of January 2025, meaning silver nearly tripled in rupee terms within a year—an unusual move for a metal long seen as abundant.

The demand increase was accompanied by a surge in imports. India’s silver imports rose to an estimated $9.2 billion in 2025.

Accounting for about 21.4% of global refined silver trade, India has emerged as a key pressure point in an intensifying global “silver war,” driven by industrial demand, green-energy ambitions, and geopolitical competition over supply chains.

This rally reflects not just investor sentiment, but a deeper structural shift in how silver is produced, traded, and consumed.

Global Trade
Global trade data underline that transformation. Over the past two decades, trade in silver ores and concentrates expanded from just $0.1 billion in 2000 to $6.27 billion in 2024. Trade in refined silver has grown even faster. Global commerce in silver bars, ingots, rods, wires, powders, and bullion jumped from $4.06 billion in 2000 to $31.42 billion in 2024. Few commodities show such sustained, broad-based growth across both raw materials and finished products.

The reason is silver’s unmatched versatility. It remains central to jewellery, silverware, and coins, especially in countries like India where cultural demand is deeply embedded. But its strategic importance now comes overwhelmingly from industry. Silver has the highest electrical and thermal conductivity of any metal, making it indispensable for electronics, circuit boards, connectors, batteries, and automotive systems.

Its role in green energy is particularly transformative. Silver is a critical input in solar photovoltaic cells, where it is used as a conductive paste to improve efficiency. Solar energy already accounts for roughly 15% of global silver demand, and that share is rising rapidly as renewable capacity expands. In medicine and healthcare, silver’s antibacterial properties are used in wound dressings, medical-device coatings, catheters, surgical instruments, water purification systems, and pharmaceutical compounds. Silver is no longer just precious; it has become infrastructural.

Persistent Deficits
Demand is rising sharply, and persistently. Global consumption has exceeded supply for several years, creating annual deficits of 200–250 million ounces. Mine output has remained largely flat, while industrial demand has surged. Today, 55–60% of global silver demand is industrial, driven by electronics, solar power, electric vehicles, defense equipment, and medical technologies.

Financial forces add another layer. With gold trading above $2,000 an ounce, investors have increasingly turned to silver as a cheaper hedge, boosting demand for ETFs, bars, and coins, particularly across Asia. At the same time, geopolitical fragmentation and the growing weaponisation of currencies have led some central banks and sovereign investors to reassess silver’s strategic role alongside gold. With limited new mining capacity and rapidly expanding technological uses, silver is increasingly viewed as a metal tied directly to future industrial and energy dominance.

Policy actions are amplifying these pressures. China has tightened export controls, shifting silver exports to a licence-based system from January 1, 2026. Under the new rules, only approved firms can export silver, and each shipment requires government authorisation, replacing the older quota regime. While this is not an outright export ban, it has heightened global supply concerns and injected new volatility into prices—especially given China’s central role in silver processing.

The Mystery of Missing Silver
Perhaps the most troubling signal comes from global trade statistics themselves. In 2024, recorded global exports of silver ores and concentrates were just $2.7 billion, while global imports totalled $6.3 billion. Roughly 90% of these imports were accounted for by China. The gap between reported exports and imports is too large to be explained by timing or accounting issues alone.

This mismatch points to under-reported or opaque transactions, potentially involving a small group of supplier countries routing silver ore sales in ways designed to avoid sanctions or scrutiny. Unlike gold, silver supply chains remain far less transparent—a vulnerability that is becoming strategic as competition intensifies.

India’s Consumption Power
India sits at the centre of this shifting landscape as the world’s largest importer of refined silver. The country does not trade in silver ores and concentrates but is a major buyer of silver bars and rods. In 2024-25, India exported just $478.4 million of silver products while importing $4.83 billion, underscoring its deep import dependence.

That dependence surged in 2025. Imports jumped to $2.7 billion in October alone, up 529% year-on-year, followed by $1.1 billion in November, a 126% increase. Cumulatively, imports reached $8.5 billion during January–November 2025 and are estimated at $9.2 billion for the full year, about 44% higher than in 2024. During April–October 2025, India imported $5.94 billion worth of silver, with supplies heavily concentrated: Hong Kong (38.4%) and the U.K. (31.7%) accounted for about 70% of total imports.

China Processes, India Consumes
The global division of labour is stark. China is the world’s dominant processor, importing around $5.6 billion of silver ores and concentrates out of a global total of $6.3 billion. It refines this metal domestically and exports higher-value silver embedded in electronics, medical devices, and solar panels. India, by contrast, imported about $6.4 billion of refined silver in 2024—21.4% of global trade, making it the world’s largest consumer of finished silver rather than a processor. India must learn to process silver from ore stage for domestic value addition

India should recognise silver as a critical industrial and energy-transition metal, not merely a precious commodity, and integrate it into its minerals and clean-energy strategy. This requires securing long-term supply through overseas mining partnerships and encouraging domestic refining and recycling capacity to reduce dependence on imported finished silver, and diversifying import sources beyond a few trading hubs. In a fragmenting global order, securing silver is becoming as important as securing energy. India’s policy framework must reflect that shift.