US House Advances Bill to End Record Shutdown, Bostic to Retire

GLOBAL MOOD: Risk-on
Drivers: US Shutdown Progress, Fed Bostic Retirement

Asian markets opened risk-on on Thursday, buoyed by optimism that the US government shutdown is close to ending after the House advanced a funding bill. The prospect of restored federal operations and resumed economic data releases lifted sentiment across global markets. Meanwhile, Fed-related developments including Raphael Bostic’s retirement announcement and growing speculation over future leadership changes kept traders attentive to potential policy shifts.

TODAY’S WATCHLIST
 - US CPI Data
 - Hero Motocorp Earnings

THE BIG STORY
The House of Representatives took a major step toward ending the longest US government shutdown in history on Wednesday, narrowly voting 213–209 to advance a stopgap funding bill that would restore food assistance, pay federal employees, and revive air-traffic operations crippled by the closure. The vote, largely along party lines, reflected President Trump’s influence in keeping Republicans unified despite opposition from Democrats, who remain frustrated that the deal failed to secure an extension of federal health insurance subsidies. A final vote is expected soon, paving the way for the reopening of government services that have been shuttered since 1 October.

In a separate development, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic announced he will retire at the end of his term on 28 February 2026, marking an unexpected exit amid the White House’s efforts to reshape the Federal Reserve’s leadership.

Data Spotlight
US crude oil inventories rose by 1.3 million barrels in the week ending 12 November 2025, following a 6.5 million-barrel build the previous week and missing expectations for a 1.7-million-barrel draw. It marked the second straight weekly build, reinforcing concerns about near-term oversupply and weighing on sentiment in the energy complex.

In Asia, Japan’s producer prices climbed 2.7% year-on-year in October, slightly easing from 2.8% in September but remaining above market forecasts of 2.5%. Cost pressures persisted across key sectors, including non-ferrous metals, food, and machinery, while declines continued in chemicals and iron and steel. On a monthly basis, prices rose 0.4%, just shy of the 0.5% consensus, marking a second consecutive monthly increase.

Takeaway: Rising US crude inventories signal persistent oversupply, while Japan’s firm producer prices highlight ongoing cost inflation, keeping regional monetary policy settings under watch.

WHAT HAPPENED OVERNIGHT

• Dow extends record run on shutdown optimism
  • US Stocks rallied on Wednesday, with the Dow climbing to a fresh record high as optimism grew that the shutdown impasse will end this week.
  • The S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted modest gains, reflecting a rotation into defensives and cyclicals.
  • Health care led the advance, with Eli Lilly and AbbVie buoyed by steady earnings momentum.
  • Financials outperformed as Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and American Express attracted strong inflows.

• US Treasury yields drop as rate-cut bets build
  • US Treasury yields fell on Wednesday, pushing yields lower as traders priced in additional Fed rate cuts following soft labour data and dovish signals from policymakers.
  • Investors reacted to ADP data showing private employers shedding jobs in late October, reinforcing signs of a slowing labour market.
  • Comments from Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, who announced plans to retire in February, added to the dovish tone as markets anticipated a potentially more rate-friendly successor backed by the White House.

• US Dollar firms as traders eye data flood post-reopening
  • The dollar edged higher on Wednesday as markets assessed how a potential reopening of the government and the resumption of official data could shape the Fed’s policy path.
  • The dollar index rose 0.08% to 99.52, while the euro inched up 0.05% to $1.1586.
  • Traders positioned cautiously ahead of a wave of pending US economic releases expected once the shutdown formally ends.

• Crude oil prices slides as OPEC forecasts balanced supply by 2026
  • Brent crude prices tumbled over $2 a barrel on Wednesday after OPEC’s latest report projected that global supply and demand would balance by 2026, reversing earlier forecasts of a deficit.
  • Brent crude dropped 3.76% to $62.71 a barrel, while WTI fell 4.18% to $58.49.
  • The report signalled a softer long-term outlook for prices, weighing on sentiment after recent gains.

Day’s Ledger

Economic Data

• Japan Oct PPI
• UK Sep Balance of Trade 
• UK Oct GDP
• ECB Economic Bulletin 
• ECB Industrial Output 
• US Oct CPI 

Corporate Actions

• Jul-Sep Earnings: Alkem Laboratories, Apollo Tyres, Bharat Dynamics, Eicher Motors, GMR Airports, Hero Motocorp, Jubilant Foodworks, Muthoot Finance, Page Industries, Samvardhana Motherson, Vishal Mega, Voltas

Policy Events

• ECB Buch Speech
• Fed Hammack Speech                       
  
  

Tickers to Watch

• ASHOK LEYLAND Q2 profit hits record ₹8.20 billion, plans ₹100 billion battery unit
• TATA STEEL net profit jumps 272% in Q2 on higher sales, cost control
• ASIAN PAINTS Q2 results: Net profit jumps 43% to ₹9.93 billion, dividend declared
• IRB INFRA Q2 results: Net profit rises 41% to ₹1.41 billion, revenue grows 11%
• HAL Q2FY26 results: Net profit up 10.5% at ₹16.69 billion, revenue rises 11%
• SPICEJET Q2 loss widens 36% on rupee fall, grounded planes, restrictions
• BIOCON debt restructuring to reduce interest costs by ₹3 billion by FY27
• ONGC's lower realisations, slow production ramp-up keep brokerages cautious
• NTPC to foray into coal gasification with 5-10 MT annual production goal
• CAMS launches AI tool to help mutual funds analyse regulations in real time

Must Read

• Retail Inflation Hits Record Low in Current Series, To Test RBI’s Statement on Space For Rate Cut
• Centre reviews initiatives to strengthen nursing education, governance
• Trump on H-1B visa: US doesn't have enough talent, needs foreign workers
• India's next Budget must balance fiscal discipline with growth push
• Cabinet calls Delhi blast a terror act, reiterates zero tolerance policy
• Cabinet clears ₹45,060 cr schemes to aid exporters, MSMEs hit by US tariffs
• India to be the world's largest driver of energy-demand growth by 2035
• US Shutdown Nears End as Senate Passes Deal, House Readies Vote
• Atlanta Fed’s Bostic to Retire When Term Ends in February

See you tomorrow with another edition of The Morning Edge.

Have a great trading day

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