Gold is on a relentless climb, hitting yet another record as investors rushes toward the safe-haven metal amid escalating trade tensions. Spot gold soared to $3,074.43 an ounce, its eighteenth all-time high this year, while US gold futures settled at $3,114.30. With bullion reporting for a fourth straight weekly gain, the rally underscores deepening market jitters ahead of President Donald Trump’s April 2 tariff announcement. While the policy reveal might shed light on the scope of new trade barriers, few expect it to calm the uncertainty that has gripped global markets—leaving gold as one of the few clear winners in a storm of economic volatility.

Data
The US consumer spending rose just 0.4% in February, falling short of expectations, while core inflation surged at its fastest pace in 13 months—raising concerns about downturn risks as trade tensions escalate. The University of Michigan's March survey amplified alarms, showing one-year inflation expectations spiking to 5.0%, the highest since November 2022, with five-year outlooks hitting 4.1%, a level not seen since February 1993. The price surge was broad-based: recreational goods, vehicles, clothing, and footwear all saw increases, while services costs jumped due to pricier housing, recreation, and financial services. With spending sluggish (downwardly revised to -0.3% in January) and inflation accelerating, the data paints a troubling picture of an economy caught between weak growth and stubborn price pressures—a combination that could complicate the Fed's policy path.

Markets
Overnight
US Stocks suffered their worst day in months on Friday as a toxic mix of weak economic data and inflation jitters—amplified by President Trump’s escalating tariffs—sparked a broad selloff. The S&P 500 tumbled 1.97% to 5,580.94, with tech giants leading the rout: Amazon plunged 4.3%, Microsoft dropped 3%, and Apple fell 2.7%. The Nasdaq cratered 2.70% to 17,322.99, while the Dow slid 1.69% to 41,583.90. The selloff reflects growing alarm that tariff-driven price pressures could collide with slowing growth that would leave the Fed with no easy policy options.

US treasuries yields fell sharply on Friday as investors priced in the economic damage from President Trump’s escalating tariffs, with the 10-year yield plunging 12 basis points to 4.249%—its biggest daily drop in weeks. Interest rate futures now reflect expectations for 66 basis points of Fed rate cuts this year, signalling growing conviction that trade tensions will force the central bank to act. With yields retreating across the curve, traders are clearly bracing for a slowdown—and betting the Fed will have no choice but to respond.

The US dollar weakened against major currencies as hotter-than-expected US inflation data intensified concerns over the potential impact of tariffs on the economy. The greenback fell 0.87% against the Japanese yen to 149.73, while the euro gained 0.29% to $1.0832, extending its recovery. The dollar also edged down 0.06% against the Swiss franc to 0.881 and weakened slightly against the Canadian dollar, trading at C$1.43 per dollar.

Brent crude oil prices ended flat on Friday as tightening global crude supplies offset concerns about demand impacts from new US tariffs. Brent crude futures dipped 0.5% to $73.63 a barrel, struggling for direction as traders weighed competing forces. While production cuts and inventory declines provided underlying support, fears that tariffs could slow economic growth and energy demand kept prices in check. 

Day’s Ledger

Economic Data:

• Chinese March Composite PMI Data
• US March Chicago PMI Data
• Japan February Industrial Production Data
• China March Caixin Manufacturing PMI
• Eurozone March CPI Data
• Eurozone February Unemployment Rate 
• US February Construction Spending Data
• US March S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 
• US March ISM Manufacturing PMI  
• US February JOLTS Job Openings Data

Corporate Actions:

• Mini Diamonds India board to discuss preferential issue of shares
• Galactico Corporate Services board to discuss scheme of arrangement
• Jetking Infotrain board to discuss preferential issue of shares

Policy:

• ECB President Lagarde Speaks  
• ECB's Lane Speaks

Tickers

• ADANI GREEN ENERGY's subsidiaries commission 480.1 MW power projects in Gujarat
• AMBUJA CEMENTS Board reappoints Ajay Kapur as managing director for two years
• BSE Ltd board has recommended the issue of two free shares for every one share held.
• HALDIRAMS announces agreement with Singapore investment major Temasek
• INTERGLOBE AVIATION, the parent company of IndiGo, has announced that it has received a penalty order ₹9.44 billion from the Income Tax Department for Assessment Year 2021-22.
• MANKIND PHARMA completes amalgamation of three subsidiaries
• NEWGEN SOFTWARE arm secures order worth $1.58 million
• WAAREE ENERGIES inaugurates 5.4 GW solar cell gigafactory facility in Chikhli, Gujarat

Must Read

• India-US trade deal: First tranche by Fall, but no relief yet on reciprocal tariffs
• Govt to convert Vodafone Idea's outstanding spectrum dues into equity shares worth ₹369.50 billion
• No change likely in DPDP rules on data storage, cross-border data transfers
• Japan to give crypto assets legal status as financial products, Nikkei says
• Will rise again': Byju Raveendran promises comeback and company relaunch
• M&E deal activity to gain pace in FY26
• Trump says he’s ‘very angry’ and ‘pissed off’ at Putin during an NBC News interview
• Trump won’t rule out seeking third term as president, says ‘there are methods’ for doing so
• South Korea, China, Japan agree to promote regional trade as Trump tariffs loom
• Australia’s Albanese Takes the Lead in Polls as Election Race Starts

Daily Mantra
There is only one corner of the universe you can be certain of improving, and that's your own self. - Aldous Huxley