Russia Now Supplies More Than Half of India’s Crude-Oil Imports, Says GTRI

Russia is estimated to have supplied more than half of India’s crude-oil imports in July, further increasing New Delhi’s dependence on Moscow at a time when proposed US sanctions legislation threatens additional tariffs on countries buying Russian energy, according to the Global Trade Research Initiative.

Russia’s share of India’s crude imports rose to an estimated 52% in July from 48.6% in June, GTRI said in a report. The share has risen sharply from about 15% in 2022 and 30.3% in 2025-26.

The growing dependence would make it difficult for India to substantially reduce purchases from Russia at short notice if the proposed US sanctions legislation is enacted and applied to India, GTRI said.

The US legislation could allow additional tariffs of up to 100% on countries that continue purchasing Russian energy, potentially forcing India to weigh the cost of reducing Russian crude purchases against the impact of higher US tariffs on its exports.

GTRI said replacing a supplier that now accounts for more than half of India's imported crude would be difficult, expensive and potentially disruptive, as alternative suppliers may not immediately be able to provide comparable volumes or similarly favourable commercial terms.

A rapid reduction in Russian crude purchases could raise India's import bill, disrupt refinery operations, widen the trade deficit and add to domestic inflation, while increasing the country's exposure to supply disruptions in West Asia, the research group said.

July Figure an Estimate

The July share is an estimate because detailed country- and product-wise trade data are currently available only through June, GTRI said.

India imported $14.8 billion of crude globally in June, of which $7.2 billion came from Russia, giving Moscow a share of 48.6%.

For July, the government has reported total imports from Russia of $8.9 billion but has not yet provided a product-wise breakup. Crude accounted for about 82% of India's imports from Russia in June. Applying the same proportion to July gives estimated Russian crude purchases of about $7.3 billion, according to GTRI.

India has also disclosed only the combined value of crude and petroleum-product imports for July. Crude accounted for 76.3% of that category in June. Applying that ratio to July suggests total crude imports of around $14 billion, implying that Russia accounted for roughly 52%, GTRI said.

The estimates will need to be updated once detailed July trade data become available, it said.

Gulf Share Falls

India's oil-supply mix has changed sharply over the past four years.

Russia's share rose from around 15% in 2022 to 30.3% in 2025-26, before climbing to 48.6% in June and an estimated 52% in July.

At the same time, the combined share of Gulf suppliers fell from more than 55% in 2022 to below 30% in June 2026, according to GTRI.

The research group said the Iran war and associated supply-chain disruptions had accelerated the shift, making Russian crude increasingly important to India's energy security.

GTRI founder Ajay Srivastava said India should continue purchasing Russian oil as long as it remains commercially attractive and complies with applicable rules.

“American tariff threats should not determine India's energy policy,” GTRI said, arguing that differences with Washington should be addressed through negotiations rather than concessions that increase India's energy costs and reduce its strategic autonomy.