Emkay sees private insurers driving steady 2025–26 growth despite moderation

Emkay Global Financial Services expects India’s life insurance industry to post 10–11% growth in retail annualised premium equivalent in 2025–26, with private life insurers outpacing the industry at 13–14%. Life Insurance Corporation of India is likely to deliver more modest growth of 4–5%.

Recent data already point to moderation. In January 2026, retail annualised premium equivalent growth slowed to around 9% on year, compared with double-digit momentum seen earlier in the fiscal year. Private insurers grew about 7% on year, while Life Insurance Corporation of India reported a sharper 15% rise, largely aided by a favourable base following weak performance in the corresponding month a year ago.

For April–January, retail annualised premium equivalent growth for the industry stands close to 10%, led by private insurers at about 12%, while Life Insurance Corporation of India has lagged with growth of roughly 3%.

Emkay notes that this divergence underscores an ongoing shift in market dynamics. Private insurers continue to benefit from stronger distribution, product innovation, and a higher share of regular premium products, while LIC’s scale results in periodic spurts in reported numbers rather than sustained momentum.

Within the private sector, performance has been uneven. Axis Max Life Insurance has emerged as a standout, recording robust double-digit retail annualised premium equivalent growth, while Tata AIA Life Insurance has also delivered healthy expansion. Larger incumbents such as SBI Life Insurance have seen more muted growth on a high base, and HDFC Life Insurance reported a temporary decline in January, reflecting product mix adjustments rather than structural weakness.

Another notable trend is the divergence between retail and group businesses. Group annualised premium equivalent grew sharply in January, driven largely by Life Insurance Corporation of India, lifting overall industry annualised premium equivalent growth to around 13% year-on-year. Emkay remains cautious in extrapolating this momentum, noting that group business is inherently volatile and less indicative of underlying franchise strength than retail premiums.

Emkay expects 2025–26 overall growth to be shaped by steady demand for protection and savings products, gradual improvement in persistency, and continued emphasis on regular premium offerings. The industry’s headline growth may appear moderate compared with recent peaks, yet the underlying shift toward private insurers gaining share remains intact. LIC’s growth is likely to stay constrained by its large base and slower pivot toward higher-margin products, while private players are positioned to compound faster, reinforcing their role as the primary growth engine for India’s life insurance sector.