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November 14, 2025 at 1:06 AM IST
GLOBAL MOOD: Risk-off
Drivers: Fed Pushback, US Shutdown Ends
Asia-Pacific markets slipped into a risk-off tone Friday, mirroring Wall Street losses as tech weakness persisted and doubts over a December Fed rate cut grew. Investors also awaited key China activity data after September’s unexpected drop in fixed-asset investment.
TODAY’S WATCHLIST
- India Trade Data
- Earnings: Oil India, Tata Motors PV
THE BIG STORY
President Donald Trumpsigned the government funding bill on Thursday, formally ending the record 43‑day US government shutdown. The move came hours after the House approved the measure in a 222–209 party‑line vote, following Senate passage earlier in the week. While the legislation restores operations across federal agencies and brings relief to unpaid workers and disrupted services, it also sets a new funding deadline of 30 January, signalling that lawmakers will soon resume negotiations to avoid another fiscal standoff.
At the same time, Federal Reserve officials continued to push back against expectations for further near‑term easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, previously supportive of cuts, called any policy decision “premature” this far ahead of the meeting. St Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem reiterated that there is limited room to ease, while Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack argued that policy should remain restrictive. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari added that inflation is still elevated even as parts of the labour market show strain.
Data Spotlight
US crude inventories surged by 6.41 million barrels in the week ending 7 November, the largest increase since late July and well above expectations for a 2-million-barrel rise. Stocks at the Cushing hub fell modestly by 0.35 million barrels, while gasoline and distillate inventories both declined, pointing to firmer refined fuel demand despite the headline crude build.
In Europe, Eurozone industrial production rose 0.2% month-on-month in September, rebounding slightly from a revised 1.1% decline in August but missing expectations of 0.7%. Gains in energy, capital goods, and intermediate goods were partially offset by weaker durable and non‑durable consumer goods. Among major economies, output increased in Italy, Germany, France, Spain, and the Netherlands, while Ireland recorded a steep 9.4% drop. On an annual basis, production grew 1.2%, below the 2.1% forecast.
Takeaway: A sharp US crude build reinforces oversupply risks, while soft Eurozone production highlights uneven industrial momentum heading into year‑end.
WHAT HAPPENED OVERNIGHT
- US stocks drop as AI selloff deepens
- Wall Street fell Thursday as expectations for near-term Fed easing weakened.
- AI majors — Nvidia, Broadcom, Oracle, Palantir — slid 3.6% to 6.5% amid profit-taking.
- Disney dropped 7.8% after mixed Q4 results.
- Odds of a December rate cut fell as Fed officials warned inflation remains sticky and shutdown-era data gaps complicate decision-making.
- Wall Street fell Thursday as expectations for near-term Fed easing weakened.
- US Treasury yields rise as rate-cut bets unwind
- Yields climbed as traders reduced expectations of a December cut and awaited delayed economic data.
- The 2-year yield rose 3.1 bps to 3.597% following hawkish Fed remarks.
- Officials flagged possible permanent distortions in October data due to the shutdown.
- US Treasury prices fell as markets reassessed inflation risks and divisions within the Fed.
- Yields climbed as traders reduced expectations of a December cut and awaited delayed economic data.
- US dollar slips as government reopens
- The dollar index eased to 99.19 as traders reassessed shutdown impacts on sentiment.
- Markets positioned cautiously ahead of a heavy data wave expected to clarify economic conditions.
- Reopening reduced safe-haven demand for the dollar.
- The dollar index eased to 99.19 as traders reassessed shutdown impacts on sentiment.
- Crude oil steady amid oversupply worries
- Brent edged up 0.5% to $63.01; WTI rose 0.3% to $58.69 after Wednesday’s sharp drop.
- Oversupply risks offset geopolitical concerns tied to new US sanctions on Russia’s Lukoil.
- Traders remained cautious as supply pressures persisted despite geopolitical support.
- Brent edged up 0.5% to $63.01; WTI rose 0.3% to $58.69 after Wednesday’s sharp drop.
Day’s Ledger
Economic Data
- India Oct WPI
- Euro Sep Balance of Trade
- India Bank Loan & Deposit Growth
- India FX Reserves
- India Oct Trade Data
- US PPI Data
Corporate Actions
- Jul-Sep Earnings: Exide Industries, Glenmark Pharma, MRF, Marico, Max Healthcare, Oil India, Siemens, Tata Motors PV
- ECB Lane Speech
- ECB Elderson Speech
Tickers to Watch
- TATA MOTORS Q2FY26 results: Swings to ₹8.67 billion, revenue up 6%
- JUBILANT FOODWORKS' Q2 net profit jumps 1.9 times on strong Domino's growth
- ALKEM LABS Q2 profit rises 11% on strong India, international sales
- LG ELECTRONICS Q2 net profit down 27.3% on margin pressures
- EICHER MOTORS Q2 results: Profit up 24%, posts record festive sales
- HERO MOTOCORP Q2FY26 results: Net profit rises 23.9% to ₹13.21 billion
- BOAT posts fivefold revenue growth to ₹31 billion, returns to profit in FY25
- THOMAS COOK INDIA eyes 50 million leisure travellers over next five years
- HERO FUTURE ENERGIES inks ₹300 billion MoU with Andhra for 4 GW renewables
- ONGC's KG basin crude output dips to 28K bpd; peak gas expected by mid-2026
- M&M, Manulife to set up life insurance JV with ₹36 billion investment
- RENEW to invest Rs 60,000 cr in Andhra in multiple green energy projects
- GODREJ delivers first human-rate L110 stage Vikas engine to Isro
Must Read
- Washington and Mumbai Align as SEC and SEBI Rethink Regulation
- Cabinet Approves Export Promotion Mission, But Funding and Rollout Challenges Loom
- The Educated Radical: How India’s Urban Terror Ecosystem is Evolving
- MoSPI to conduct migration survey from July 2026, seeks public views
- Sebi proposes IPO rule tweaks with lock-in fix, simpler disclosure format
- Govt releases draft Seeds Bill 2025, draws flak over farmers compensation
- DHL Group to invest €1 bn in India over CY26-30 for logistics expansion
- Third of Russian seaborne oil exports stuck amid US sanctions
- Bad loans in unsecured retail credit to peak in FY26, says S&P Global
- India imposes anti-dumping duty on Vietnam steel imports for 5 years
- The Secret Meeting That Ended the Shutdown
See you tomorrow with another edition of The Morning Edge.
Have a great trading day
India’s latest debate on inflation targeting misses a crucial point: the framework has worked, but only when it stays flexible.
Yes, inflation is lower on average since adoption—but periods of unnecessarily high real interest rates have also hurt growth. In an economy driven by supply shocks, rigidity can turn monetary consensus into groupthink. India doesn’t need to abandon inflation targeting—just adapt it to its own realities so stability doesn’t come at the cost of momentum.
Read Former MPC member Ashima Goyal’s column for BasisPoint: Inflation Targeting Needs Flexibility, Not Unanimity
