Asia Opens Firmer; RBI Policy, Putin’s India Visit in Focus 

GLOBAL MOOD: Cautiously Risk-On
Drivers: Rising Fed rate-cut Hopes, US–Ukraine–Russia Talks, Mixed US Data

Asian markets are trending higher, with Japan’s Nikkei and Topix advancing strongly as investors lean into Fed rate-cut optimism and improved risk appetite following Wall Street’s rebound. Despite geopolitical uncertainty around the US–Russia–Ukraine peace negotiations, markets are taking comfort in expectations of a Fed cut next week and a series of stabilising US data points.

Sentiment is positive but not euphoric as investors balance easier policy expectations with geopolitical risks and mixed economic readings.

TODAY’S WATCHLIST
 - Putin’s India Visit
 - RBI MPC Policy Meet Outcome 

THE BIG STORY
Europe’s top leaders have privately expressed deep scepticism about Washington’s latest push to broker a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia, according to a confidential call cited by Spiegel. French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz warned that elements of US proposal risk undermining Ukraine’s security, while Germany’s Friedrich Merz cautioned President Volodymyr Zelenskiy that US negotiators may be “playing games” and urged vigilance in the coming days.

The concerns surfaced just as Russian President Vladimir Putin said his five-hour talks with US envoys were “necessary and useful,” but stressed that several American proposals remain unacceptable to the Kremlin. Putin’s remarks came ahead of his visit to New Delhi and follow a round of difficult discussions in Moscow involving Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff and adviser Jared Kushner.

Negotiations now shift to Miami, where Witkoff and Kushner are expected to meet Ukrainian negotiator Rustem Umerov on Thursday as part of President Donald Trump’s accelerated effort to end the nearly four-year conflict. Despite renewed momentum, bridging the gap between Kyiv’s security demands and Russia’s territorial ambitions remains highly uncertain, fuelling fears in Europe that Ukraine could face pressure to concede ground without firm guarantees.

Data Spotlight
US jobless claims fell sharply last week, offering reassurance after earlier private-sector surveys had hinted at labour-market deterioration. Initial claims dropped by 27,000 to 191,000, the lowest since September 2022 and far below expectations of 220,000. Unadjusted claims plunged by nearly 50,000, with the largest declines seen in California, Texas, New York, Washington state and Florida.

At the same time, new orders for US manufactured goods rose 0.2% in September 2025, easing from a downwardly revised 1.3% gain in August and undershooting market expectations. Transportation equipment continued to support growth, with modest rebounds in vehicles and another strong surge in defence aircraft orders.

Takeaway: Labour-market data delivered a surprisingly strong signal, easing fears of a sharp slowdown, while factory orders showed mixed momentum with selective areas of strength. Together, the indicators suggest the economy is cooling but not yet cracking.

WHAT HAPPENED OVERNIGHT

• US stocks rebound as risk appetite improves
  • US stocks ended near unchanged Thursday as investors awaited next week’s Fed decision.
  • Mixed labour data kept markets pricing a 25 bps cut.
  • Technology sector underperformed, with Intel declining by 7.5%, Amazon by 1.4%, Apple by 1.2%, and Alphabet by 0.7%.
  • Meta gained 3.4% following reports of cost reductions in its metaverse division.
  • Salesforce rose by 3.7% and Dollar General increased by 14%, delivering positive performance amid stable Treasury yields and mixed corporate developments.

• US Treasury yields hold above 4%
  • The 10-year US Treasury yield stood at 4.08% on Thursday, reversing the prior session’s dip.
  • Weak labour data; ADP payroll decline, Challenger job cuts up 25% YoY strengthened expectations of a 25 basis points Fed rate cut next week.
  • Yields stayed elevated as concerns linger that sticky inflation may limit the Fed’s ability to cut rates multiple times in 2026.

• US Dollar steadies ahead of Fed cut
  • The Dollar index rose 0.1% to 99.02, hovering near a five-week low of 98.765.
  • Traders are pricing 90% odds of a 25 basis points Fed rate cut next week, keeping the dollar under pressure.
  • The dollar remains down 9% for the year, with investors awaiting signals on the Fed’s policy path beyond December.

• Crude oil prices edges higher on Fed cut hopes
  • Brent crude prices rose 0.94% to $63.26, supported by expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut rates next week, improving demand sentiment.
  • WTI gained 1.22% to $59.67, extending the rebound in crude markets.
  • Stalled Ukraine peace talks reduced expectations of any near-term deal that could restore Russian oil flows, limiting downside pressure. 

Day’s Ledger

ECONOMIC DATA

• US Fed Balance Sheet
• Euro GDP Growth Rate
• India FX Reserves  

CORPORATE ACTIONS

• Integrated Ind board to mull pref share issue
• Welcure Drug board to mull rights issue
• Bhakti Gems board to mull fund raising  

POLICY EVENTS

• India RBI Interest Rate Decision 
• ECB Lane Speech 

TICKERS TO WATCH

• INDIGO CEO admits service lapses as airline battles flight disruptions
• ASG EYE HOSPITAL to invest ₹20 billion, scale to 600-700 centres
• British American Tobacco plans to offload stake in India's ITC HOTELS
• BIOCON board to weigh BBL stake buyout, fundraising options on December 6
• AIRTEL-Nokia partnership to help developers create new revenue streams 

MUST READ

• The Cockroach Warning and the Garbage Lending
• Rupee Dilemma: The Case for Strategic Silence
• Why Wealthiest States Are Lagging in Digital Payments Revolution
• RBI Must Avoid June’s Missteps as Stance and Signals Take Centre Stage
• Why Rare Earths Now Sit at the Fault Line of US–China Power Politics
• Govt denies report of new $2-billion India-Russia nuclear submarine lease
• India's UPI to be accepted in Cambodia under NPCI-ACLEDA partnership
• Rupee fall lifts hedging; exporters hold off amid negative MTM positions
• Fitch lifts FY26 growth forecast to 7.4% on stronger consumer demand
• BofA sees Nifty at 29,000 in 2026 as earnings drive market returns
• Key Japan Officials Would Go Along With a BOJ December Rate Hike

See you tomorrow with another edition of The Morning Edge.

Have a great trading day

Ukraine, NATO and the Limits of Power: Is the West Facing a Strategic Climbdown?

Is the Ukraine war quietly morphing into a Western recalibration rather than a pathway to peace?

Ata Hasnain writes, as exhaustion sets in on all sides, old red lines re-emerge, diplomacy looks transactional, and strategic silence speaks louder than sanctions. For India, the lesson may lie in balance—not in backing, blaming, or boasting, but in watching power shift beneath the surface.