Bihar 2025: Winds of Change or Continuity?

As Bihar gears up for another electoral showdown this year, the political landscape is showing signs of dramatic churn. A recent large-scale public opinion survey conducted by Vote Vibe, a political insights platform, reveals a state torn between discontent and cautious optimism with youth emerging as the principal agents of change.

The comprehensive study, based on thousands of responses across caste, age, and regional divides, captures the mood on governance, political trust, leadership preferences, and pressing voter issues.

Anti-Incumbency: A Rising Tide
One of the most striking findings is the depth of anti-incumbency sentiment directed at the NDA government led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar. Nearly 48.5% of respondents expressed strong dissatisfaction, while only 18.3% showed strong support. The rest remained neutral, reflecting a volatile electorate.

This dissatisfaction is sharply concentrated among the youth, especially those aged 25–34, of whom a staggering 55.5% hold anti-incumbent views. Conversely, voters aged 55 and above remain relatively more supportive of the incumbent. 

Caste dynamics further accentuate this divide: Muslims showed the highest anti-incumbency, while Upper Caste Hindus leaned more pro-NDA. 

MLA Discontent and Desire for Change
Majority voters (54.9%) do not wish to vote for the MLA if they run again for office, indicating widespread disillusionment with individual performance across constituencies. The youth were especially decisive, with nearly seven in ten (69.2%) voters aged 25–34 unwilling to vote for their current MLA again. This indicates we could have a high number of ticket denials across parties to neutralise local anti-incumbency.

Development and Job Creation: A Split Verdict
Voters were nearly evenly divided when asked which alliance they trust more to deliver on development, with 36.1% backing Mahagathbandhan, 35.4% NDA and 10% Jan Suraj. Jan Suraj, led by Prashant Kishor, continues to carve space among those disenchanted with both traditional alliances.

On job creation, the topmost issue, ‘Mahagathbandhan’ pulled ahead with 39.6%, while the NDA trailed at 32.3% with Tejaswi Yadav succeeding in taking credit for 500,000 job creation during his tenure as Deputy CM. 

Law & Order and Governance: A Mixed Bag
Nitish Kumar’s long-standing image as a law-and-order reformer appears to be under strain due to a spate of recent incidents. About 34.2% of voters say the situation has worsened, while 28.7% believe it has improved. Here too, social groups differ: Upper Caste Hindus and SCs are more approving, while Muslims and OBCs voice more concern, thus providing a lifetime opportunity to RJD to neutralise its stigma of Jungelraj. 

 
A Third of Respondents Don’t Want Nitish to be CM face of NDA
In a telling response, while around 1/4th respondents want BJP to declare Nitish as NDA’s CM face due to good work done by him, another 1/4th wish to continue with “sushashan babu” due to lack of viable options in BJP. Around a third, wish BJP to announce its own CM face, highlighting tensions within the alliance and issues pertaining to vote transfer with minimum leakages during elections. 

Who Should Lead? CM Face Preferences
Leadership perception plays a decisive role in Bihar’s politics. On this front: Tejashwi Yadav (RJD) leads with 32.1% support, followed by Nitish Kumar (JDU) with 25.0% and Prashant Kishor (Jan Suraj) at a notable 12.4%.

Interestingly, when BJP voters were asked if they wanted Nitish Kumar to continue as the NDA’s CM face, only 24.2% said yes on merit, while 33.7% strongly opposed his return. Another 23.1% saw it as a compromise due to lack of alternatives, underlining the BJP’s strategic dilemma and highlighting vote transfer issues.

While NDA, has a combined leadership with Chirag and Samrat Chaudhary also chipping in with 9% and 4% support, respectively, bringing their caste block support, MGB is largely relying solely on Tejaswi's . 

Electoral Issues and the Call to Move beyond Caste
Across the board, unemployment dominates as the top electoral concern (49.5%), particularly among the youth. Issues like law and order, price rise, and corruption also featured, but lagged significantly behind. 

In a revealing response, 81% of respondents said they wanted Bihar’s politics to move away from caste-driven calculations, suggesting a growing aspiration for merit and performance-based governance.

The Role of Jan Suraj: Third Front or Spoiler?
Jan Suraj is emerging as a credible third force, particularly among young voters and the politically undecided. While not yet in a position to form a government, its 10–14% support base gives it the power to disrupt traditional vote banks, potentially redrawing battleground lines in several seats in a hyper local election. It is helping NDA by splitting the opposition vote while helping MGB by amplifying the anti-incumbency. 

The Road Ahead: Competitive and Contentious
With public sentiment evenly divided and trust shifting in nuanced directions, Bihar is poised for one of its most competitive elections in recent memory. The electorate, especially younger voters, appears ready to rewrite old scripts. However, the road to power remains fragmented and how parties engage with unemployment, governance trust, and leadership clarity will define their fortunes.

Vote Vibe is a political insights platform that amplifies public voice through timely, data-driven reports on elections, governance, and political narratives. It believes democracy works better when voters are better heard.