QUICK SNAPSHOT
Global Sentiment:  Risk-on 
Factors: US-China Trade Talks Optimism

TODAY’S WATCHLIST

• Jan-Mar Earnings: Hindustan Unilever, Nestle India, Axis Bank
• US weekly jobless claims data

THE BIG STORY
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent acknowledged Wednesday that the current 145% US tariffs on Chinese goods and 125% Chinese retaliatory duties are unsustainable, marking the first tangible sign of potential de-escalation in the month-long trade war between the economic superpowers. While ruling out unilateral reductions, Bessent characterized the existing tariffs as "the equivalent of an embargo" that serves neither nation's interest. These comments that sparked a market rally amid speculation of eventual negotiations. Behind the scenes, the White House is reportedly prepared to discuss slashing Chinese import tariffs by more than half to 50% as part of a negotiated settlement, though officials stress any reduction would require reciprocal concessions from Beijing. 

The cautiously optimistic tone from Washington, following weeks of heightened tensions, contributed to the rise in risk assets, with the S&P 500 recording its largest gain in three weeks. However, substantial obstacles persist: no formal negotiations are scheduled, and both parties maintain their firm initial positions, with China asserting that the United States must take the first step towards tariff relief.

Data
New single-family home sales in the US exceeded expectations in March, rising 7.4% month-on-month to an annualised rate of 724,000 units - the strongest pace since September 2024. The February figure was revised down slightly to 674,000 units from the initial estimate of 676,000. Economists had projected sales of just 680,000 units, making the March outperformance particularly notable. On a yearly basis, sales were up 6.0%, suggesting some resilience in housing demand. However, analysts caution that persistent economic uncertainty and volatile mortgage rates may challenge the sustainability of this recovery in coming months. The data comes as the housing market shows tentative signs of stabilisation after last year's downturn.

WHAT HAPPENED OVERNIGHT
US stocks rallied Wednesday as renewed optimism over US-China trade talks and Trump's assurance that he won't fire Fed Chair Powell boosted sentiment, though gains narrowed by the close. Tesla jumped 5.3% despite a 71% profit plunge after Musk pledged to focus on operations.

Benchmark 10-year US Treasury yields dipped to 4.385%, and 30-year yields fell to 4.83%. Markets eased recent trade-policy concerns, but the bond rally slightly faded after strong March home sales data. Citadel’s Kenneth Griffin warned the Trump administration to safeguard Treasury creditworthiness amid policy volatility.  The US dollar strengthened across the board on Wednesday, gaining ground against the major currencies, after signal from the Trump administration suggested a potential softening in the ongoing trade standoff with China.

Brent crude oil prices fell around 2% on Wednesday after reports emerged that OPEC+ may consider fast-tracking its output hikes at the group's upcoming June meeting, raising concerns about a potential supply surge. 

Day’s Ledger

Economic Data

• US weekly jobless claims data
• US March existing home sales data
• US March core durable goods orders

Corporate Actions

• Jan-Mar Earnings: Hindustan Unilever, Nestle India, Axis Bank, SBI Cards and Payment Services, ACC, Accelya Solutions  India, Adani Energy Solutions, Cyient, Indbank Merchant Banking Services, SBI Life Insurance Company, Sterling and Wilson Renewable Energy, Elecon Engineering Company, Indian Energy Exchange, Kirloskar Pneumatic Company, Laurus Labs, Macrotech Developers, L&T Technology Services, MphasiS, NELCO, Prime Securities, Shanthi Gears, Supreme Industries, Tanla Platforms, Persistent Systems, Tech Mahindra, Aavas Financiers, Sumeet Industries.
• Bannari Amman Spinning Mills board to consider fund raising
• Devyani International board to consider fund raising
  

Policy Events

• ECB's Lane speaks
• IMF and World Bank spring meetings  

 TICKERS

• 360 ONE WAM Jan-Mar net profit rises 2.9%, FY25 profit jumps 26.2%
• Adani Green unit inks PPA with UP Power Corp. for 1.25 GW storage capacity
• Bajaj Housing Finance Jan-Mar profit jumps 54% on strong NII, AUM growth
• Bharat Petroleum forms JV with GPS Renewables for compressed biogas plants
• Biocon to raise up to ₹45 billion through equity or debt instruments
• LTIMindtree reports muted earnings for March quarter, misses analyst expectations
• NBCC India bags orders worth ₹646.7 million
• Tata Consumer Jan-Mar net profit jumps 59% on strong branded sales, beats estimates
• Tata Teleservices Maharashtra Jan-Mar loss narrows, FY25 loss widens

MUST READ

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• Goldman Sachs revises banking sector outlook, expects 10-12% credit growth, better profitability
• IMF warns of 'intensified' risks to public finances amid US trade war
• India suspends Indus Waters Treaty, closes Wagah-Attari border, cancels visas
• Trump's cabinet ready to reassert power as Musk steps back