Sensex Hits 2-Year Low, Rupee Breaches 95 on West Asia War Concerns

An end-of-day recap of all that transpired in the Indian markets, highlighting the major price movements and the factors driving them

India stocks fall, rupee fall

By Dehuti Jani

Dehuti Jani is an experienced project manager who also works as an independent financial journalist.

March 30, 2026 at 11:45 AM IST

Indian equity benchmarks logged their biggest monthly slump since March 2020 on Monday, the last session of fiscal year 2026, as the intensifying West Asia war drove crude oil above $115 per barrel and deepened growth worries for the world's third-largest crude importer. The Nifty50 dropped 2.14% or 488.20 points to a near one-year low of 22,331.40, while the BSE Sensex shed 2.22% or 1,635.67 points to 71,947.55, its lowest close in over two years. The benchmarks have lost more than 11% each in March and are down 5.1% and 7.1% respectively for financial year 2026.

The rupee breached 95 per dollar for the first time, falling to a record low of 95.21, despite the Reserve Bank of India tightened banks' net open position caps on rupee forex exposure to $100 million per day, effective 10 April, in an attempt to curb exchange rate volatility. Bajaj Finance, Shriram Finance and State Bank of India were among the top Nifty 50 losers.

All 16 major sectors fell in March, with small-caps and mid-caps losing 10.2% and 10.9% respectively for the month, while on the day, the Nifty MidCap 100 and Nifty SmallCap 100 each declined approximately 2.68% and 2.66%. Nifty PSU Bank, Nifty Bank and Nifty Financial Services were the worst-performing sectoral indices, while Nifty Metal and Nifty Oil and Gas declined the least among peers, as rising crude prices continued to offer selective support to energy-linked names even as the broader market was engulfed in a historic selloff.

The Israeli military reported that Iran launched multiple waves of missiles at Israel on Monday, with an attack also launched from Yemen for only the second time since the conflict began, dramatically escalating the scope of hostilities.

Top Movers of the Day

Metal stocks surged after Iranian attacks on two West Asian producers raised the prospect of record metal prices, according to Bloomberg. National Aluminium jumped 6.11%, Hindalco gained 4.3%, Vedanta rose 3.66%, SAIL and Welspun Corp advanced over 2% each, and NMDC climbed over 1%.

Coal India bucked the market trend, gaining 3% from a flat open at ₹445.05 to an intraday high of ₹459.90, after Geojit upgraded the stock to a buy rating with an 11% upside target.

NTPC fell around 1% to ₹370, leading PSU stock losses on continued by broader market volatility, high crude oil price and geopolitical tensions.

Tata Steel declined around 1% to ~₹191, as metal stocks remained under pressure amid global uncertainty.

InterGlobe Aviation (IndiGo) fell nearly 4%, as aviation stocks reacted to elevated crude oil prices.

BPCL, IOC, and HPCL dropped 1-2%, extending weakness in oil marketing companies due to rising crude.

DLF declined around 3%, reflecting continued profit booking in real estate counters.

Dixon Technologies was in focus after its wholly owned subsidiary Dixon Display Technologies received approval under the Electronics Component Manufacturing Scheme for display module sub-assembly.

Sugar stocks significantly outperformed the broader market, with Dalmia Bharat Sugar & Industries surging 12% to ₹386.85 and Dwarikesh Sugar Industries climbing 11% to ₹46.66 on the NSE.

Tata Motors and Ashok Leyland remained under heavy pressure, with Tata Motors slipping 9% to ₹389.05 and Ashok Leyland skidding 5% to ₹155.50 on the BSE.

CMPDI made a subdued market debut on Monday after the Coal India subsidiary raised ₹18.42 billion through its IPO, with shares opening below expectations on Dalal Street.

Futures & Options
Nifty March 2026 futures closed at 22,330.10, a marginal discount of 1.30 points to the spot Nifty, which tanked 488.20 points or 2.14% to settle at 22,331.40 in the cash market on the final trading day of financial year 2026. The near-flat premium to spot reflected deeply cautious positioning, with traders showing little appetite to carry long exposure into the new financial year amid the unresolved West Asia conflict and a record low rupee. India VIX surged 4.04% to 27.89, its highest closing level since the onset of the crisis, signalling that near-term volatility expectations remain at extreme levels as the conflict showed no signs of resolution. HDFC Bank, Infosys and InterGlobe Aviation were the most actively traded stock futures contracts in the F&O segment on the NSE. The March 2026 contracts expired today.

The April future is trading at a premium of roughly 318 points over the spot price. The April monthly contract is scheduled to expire on Tuesday, 28 April 2026.

Bonds
The Indian government bond yields rose on Monday, with the benchmark 6.48% 2035 bond yield closing at 7.0345% from 6.9419% in the previous session, as the market posted its biggest quarterly yield rise in four years to close out financial year 2026. The benchmark yield surged 35 basis points in the January-March quarter, its sharpest quarterly rise since June 2022 when the Reserve Bank of India began its rate hiking cycle with an off-schedule move, as the West Asia war drove oil prices sharply higher and fuelled persistent inflation fears. Trading was choppy through the session on the final day of the fiscal year, with Indian markets set to remain closed on Tuesday for a local holiday.

Forex
The Indian rupee fell to a record low for a third consecutive session on Monday, breaching the 95 per dollar mark for the first time to hit 95.21. However, recover to end 94.83, down only 3 paise from the previous close, as the outlook for Asian currencies remained deeply weak amid the ongoing West Asia war. The RBI's tightening of banks' foreign exchange position caps provided only fleeting relief, with the structural pressures of elevated oil prices, sustained foreign portfolio outflows and deteriorating macroeconomic fundamentals continuing to overwhelm any near-term support measures.

Crypto
Crypto markets staged a modest recovery on Monday, with Bitcoin rising 2.1% to around $67,300 and Ethereum gaining 3.1% to $2,045, though both tokens remained range-bound in a broader bearish trend below key resistance level. Stronger gains were seen in the altcoin market, with Chiliz, FET and Optimism each notching advances of more than 6%, offering a pocket of outperformance even as the overall digital asset space continued to trade cautiously amid persistent geopolitical and macroeconomic headwinds.

US Stock Futures
US stock futures edged higher on Monday morning as Wall Street headed into an Easter-shortened trading week, with investors bracing for fresh economic data amid lingering consumer uncertainty. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose 0.3%, S&P 500 futures gained 0.4% and Nasdaq 100 futures advanced 0.3%, pointing to a modestly positive open as markets attempted to stabilise after weeks of geopolitical-driven volatility.

US Treasury Notes
Yields on US Treasury eased modestly on Monday, with the benchmark 10-year note yield falling roughly 4 basis points to 4.398% and the 30-year bond yield edging lower to approximately 4.97%, as a safe-haven bid emerged following reports of intensified conflict involving Iran and crude oil surging above $115 per barrel. Despite the morning's modest retreat, yields remain significantly higher than a month ago as traders continue to price out 2026 rate cuts in response to oil-driven inflationary risks, keeping the broader pressure on bond markets firmly intact.

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