Asian Equities Advance Amid Uncertainty; US Visa Policy Clouds Indian IT Outlook

GLOBAL MOOD: Risk-off
Drivers: Trump H-1B Visa Fees, Oil Supply Concerns

Asian equities opened higher, led by Japan’s Nikkei rebound after BOJ eased ETF sale fears. Gains were tempered by Fed uncertainty, weak US labor data, and Trump’s steep H-1B visa fee hike weighing on Indian IT stocks.

TODAY’S WATCHLIST
 - PBoC Loan Prime Rate
 - BoE Gov Bailey Speaks 

THE BIG STORY
Panic and confusion swept through tech companies and banks as workers on H-1B visas from India and China rushed to return to the US after President Donald Trumpimposed new visa fees. Companies sent urgent memos warning employees not to leave the country before the 12:01 a.m. US Eastern Time deadline on Sunday, creating widespread alarm. A White House official clarified that the order applied only to new visa applicants, not holders of existing visas or those seeking renewals, addressing some of the uncertainty.

The new $100,000 one-time fee per petition for H-1B visas goes into effect on Sunday and will not impact existing visa holders re-entering the US. White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt emphasised on X that this is not an annual fee, but a single charge applicable only to new petitions, further clarifying the scope of the policy.

Data Spotlight 
Foreign direct investment in China fell 12.7% year-on-year to ¥506.58 billion during the first eight months of 2025, reflecting global economic uncertainty. The manufacturing sector attracted CNY 129.03 billion, while services drew a larger share of ¥336.16 billion. High-tech industries remained standout, with total foreign investment of ¥148.28 billion. Within high tech, e-commerce services surged 169.2%, aerospace and equipment manufacturing rose 37.5%, chemical and pharmaceutical manufacturing grew 23.2%, and medical equipment and devices increased 19.2%. By source, Japanese investment jumped 58.9%, Swiss investment rose 37.2%, UK investment increased 24.5%, and Singapore contributed 1.8%.

Takeaway: While overall FDI in China declined, the sustained growth in high-tech sectors indicates that global investors continue to prioritise advanced industries despite broader economic uncertainties.

 WHAT HAPPENED OVERNIGHT

• US stocks extend rally on Fed rate cut, strong earnings
  • All three major indexes closed at record highs for the second consecutive day.
  • S&P 500 and Nasdaq notched their third straight weekly gain amid optimism over Fed’s first 2025 rate cut.
  • Apple rose 3.2% after J.P. Morgan raised its price target, while Palantir and Oracle also supported tech sector gains.
  • Trading volume reached its highest level since April, highlighting strong market participation.

• US Treasury yields rise amid Fed rate cut, economic optimism
  • Yield on the 10-year US Treasury rose 3 bps to 4.13%, the highest in two weeks.
  • Investors weighed the Fed’s first 2025 rate cut and updated economic outlook.
  • Chair Powell described the cut as “risk management” and cautioned that “there are no risk-free paths.”
  • Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari supported the rate cut and expects two more this year.

• US Dollar strengthens on Fed rate cut, gradual easing signals
  • The US dollar index rose 0.3% to 97.662, extending its rebound against major currencies.
  • Traders assessed the near-term outlook following the Fed’s rate cut earlier this week.
  • The Fed indicated a gradual approach to future easing, contributing to the US dollar's moderate movement.

• Crude oil prices fall on oversupply concerns
  • Brent crude oil 1.1% to $66.68 a barrel, while US WTI dropped 1.4% to $62.68 a barrel.
  • Oversupply fears and weakening demand outweighed expectations of increased consumption after the Fed’s rate cut.

Day’s Ledger

Corporate Actions

• TVS Holdings to consider bonus share issue
• Emkay Global Financial Services to consider fund raising
• Manba Finance to consider fund raising

Policy Events

• PBoC Loan Prime Rate
  
• German Buba Mauderer Speaks                                          
• BoE MPC Member Pill Speaks                                               
• FOMC Member Williams Speaks                                          
• ECB's Lane Speaks                                             
• German Buba President Nagel Speaks                                          
• BoC Senior Deputy Governor Rogers Speaks                                          
• German Buba Balz Speaks                                         
• BoE Gov Bailey Speaks 

Tickers to Watch

• AMBER ENTERPRISES’ subsidiary IL JIN acquired 100% stake in Israel-based ILJIN Holding.
• BRIGADE ENTERPRISES informed that Shruti Pai invested ₹1.26 billion in Brigade Twin Towers, Bengaluru.
• GARDEN REACH SHIPBUILDERS & ENGINEERS signed five MoUs for shipbuilding and infra; bagged $62.44 million hybrid vessel order from Germany.
• GODREJ CONSUMER infused $85 million into Mauritius Africa arm to deleverage balance sheet.
• HARIOM PIPE signed MoU with Maharashtra govt for $31.35 billion steel plant in Gadchiroli.
• HUDCO signed MoU with NBCC for development of commercial, institutional, and residential projects.
• LUPIN informed that US FDA closed inspection at Pune Biotech facility with four observations.
• NETWEB TECH received ₹4.5 billion order for Tyrone AI GPU Accelerated systems.
• OIL INDIA signed JV with Rajasthan utility to develop 1.2 GW solar and wind projects in state RE park.
• PNC INFRATECH secured Bihar bridge project worth ₹4.96 billion from state road body.
• POWER GRID won Madhya Pradesh inter-state transmission project under BOOT model.
• RAILTEL won offshore internet work order from DCI worth ₹180 million
• REDINGTON’s  subsidiary Arena signed $8 million device distribution pact with Vodafone Dagitim in Turkey.
• SHIPPING CORP. OF INDIA partnered with BPCL, HPCL, IOCL to jointly acquire and operate vessels for energy trade.
• SWAN DEFENCE signed MoU with Gujarat Maritime Board for ₹42.5 billion investment in Pipavav shipyard expansion.

 Must Read

• The $100,000 Question: How Trump's H-1B Fee Hike will Change the Future of Hiring
  
• India’s Remittance Lifeline Faces New Strains
• How Post-COVID Tailwinds Triggered H-1B Pushback; Is Macro Reset the Answer?
• UK, Canada and Australia announce formal recognition of Palestinian state
• Saudi-Pak pact reshapes region, and India must rethink power and strategy
• How 19th Century US Is Inspiring China’s Xi
• India Mulls Strategic Rare Earth Reserve
• Adani gets SEBI clean chit, but some Hindenburg allegations remain unanswered
  
• The UPI is upstaging the ATM. What does that say of the Indian economy?

See you tomorrow with another edition of The Morning Edge.

Have a great trading day.

Trump’s $100,000 H-1B Fee: Who Really Loses?

TK Arun WRITES, while Indian IT firms may only face short-term adjustments, the bigger casualty could be Indian students. With the American job market turning into “forbidden land” post-graduation, US admissions may no longer be worth the debt.

Could this finally reverse India’s brain drain?