What’s Behind the Rebound in Indian Exports to the US — and Is It Sustainable?

India’s exports to the US fell 20.7% from $8.8 billion in May to $7.0 billion in November. The decline was much sharper earlier in the year: exports dropped 37.7% from May to September, hitting a low of $5.5 billion. From that trough, exports partly recovered by 27.3% between September and November, indicating a rebound after a steep mid-year fall.

Thus, India’s exports to the US followed a two-phase pattern in 2025, falling sharply from May to September before recovering partially by November.

The fall-and-recovery pattern is visible in 85% of India’s November exports across most product categories. These include electronics (smartphones), gems and jewellery, machinery, vehicles and auto components, pharmaceuticals, textiles and garments, carpets, mineral fuels, organic chemicals, plastics, rubber articles, fish, dairy products, and edible fruits and nuts.

Electronics drove both the plunge and the rebound. Exports of smartphones —India’s single largest export—fell from $2.29 billion in May to $884.6 million in September, then recovered to $1.8 billion in November. That bounce was substantial, but November still sat 21.4 % below May.

The adjustment was far more dramatic in gems and jewellery, a category that can swing sharply with demand and pricing. Exports plunged from $500.2 million in May to $202.8 million in September, before surging back to $406.2 million in November—a powerful rebound that nevertheless left exports about 19% below May.

A similar pattern played out in Machinery and mechanical appliances where exports eased from $621.8 million in May to $516.8 million in September, then nearly returned to peak levels at $614.6 million in November, ending only about 1% below May—one of the closest recoveries in the data.

Vehicles and auto components were weaker: exports declined from $234.9 million in May to $185.6 million in September and barely improved to $188.6 million in November, leaving the segment nearly 20% below May.

Pharmaceutical products, where attract no reciprocal tariffs in the USA, also followed the same arc. Shipments dipped from $745.5 million in May to $628.3 million in September, then rose to $669.2 million in November, still about 10% under May.

Textiles and garments showed widespread stress, consistent with pressure on discretionary consumer spending and intense price competition. Knitted apparel fell from $263.5 million in May to $159.9 million in September, then recovered to $177.5 million in November, still 33% below May.

Non-knitted apparel dropped even harder—from $252.0 million in May to $126.7 million in September—before rebounding to $180.9 million in November, leaving it 28% below May.

Several textile input and home-furnishing categories also remained materially lower: carpets and floor coverings slid from $105.6 million in May to $71.2 million in September, then improved to $86.5 million in November (still 18% below May). The steepest hit came in industrial and coated textile fabrics, which collapsed from $24.2 million in May to $5.0 million in September and recovered only to $6.9 million in November, remaining nearly 72% below May.

Commodity-linked and intermediate manufacturing segments also reflected the two-step pattern, but with differing intensity.

Mineral fuels and oils fell moderately despite being tariff exempt—from $291.5 million in May to $251.5 million in September—before rising to $274.3 million in November, still about 6% below May.

Organic chemicals eased from $244.3 million to $188.9 million and then climbed back to $224.8 million, ending 8% below May.

Others were far weaker: miscellaneous chemical products dropped from $160.6 million in May to $82.2 million in September, recovering to $108.3 million in November, still 33% below May; and plastics slid from $156.1 million to $87.6 million, inching up to $95.2 million, leaving exports 39% below May. Rubber and rubber articles fell from $95.9 million to $51.0 million, then recovered to $62.4 million, still 35% below May.

In food and agriculture, the declines were sharp and the recoveries partial. Fish and crustaceans dropped from $223.3 million in May to $113.1 million in September, rebounding to $143.7 million in November, still 36% below May.

Dairy produce fell from $24.4 million to $10.0 million, then rose to $15.3 million, still 37% under May.

Several farm and processed-food lines showed persistent weakness: edible fruits and nuts remained 56% below May even after a small recovery (from $9.0 million to $3.6 million to $4.0 million), while animal and vegetable fats and oils were still 66% below May (from $27.0 million to $4.6 million to $9.2 million).

Why the Rebound

India’s exports fell more sharply during the low-tariff phase and then recovered partially under the higher-tariff regime. This pattern is unusual.

Exports fell between May and September even though tariffs were relatively low—10% in May, June and July, 10% from August 1–6, 25% from August 7–27, and only 50% from August 28–31. September, the first full month under the 50% tariff, marked the low point. Yet exports partly recovered between September and November, even though the 50% tariff remained in place throughout that period.

The drop between May and September likely reflected the shock and uncertainty created by impending tariff hikes, which led buyers to delay orders and run down inventories. Once the higher tariffs became certain, exporters and US buyers began adjusting—absorbing part of the cost, renegotiating prices, and shifting toward less-affected or hard-to-substitute products.

In sectors such as electronics and machinery, supply-chain realignments and inventory restocking ahead of the US holiday season also supported shipments. The rebound after September therefore reflects adjustment to a tougher tariff regime, not relief, and remains fragile, driven by short-term coping strategies rather than a lasting improvement.

Data Source- DGCI&S, USITC DataWeb (U.S. Trade & Tariff Data) and private websites

Also read: India’s China Trade: Volatile Exports, Rising Import Dependence