LOGIN
The Morning Edge

Markets Cheer US–China Accord, Yet Fed Split Leaves Investors Guarded

Here’s your quick read to start the day: a chatty, no-fuss look at overnight moves, the big story, what’s on the docket, and the tickers you need to watch.

Article related image

November 3, 2025 at 1:51 AM IST

GLOBAL MOOD: Risk-on
Drivers: US–China Trade Truce, US Fed Uncertainty,

Asian markets opened in a risk-on mood, supported by the US–China trade truce easing tariff and supply-chain fears, though gains remain tempered by Federal Reserve policy uncertainty and internal divisions on future rate cuts.

TODAY’S WATCHLIST
 - India Oct Manufacturing PMI
 - Earnings: Ambuja Cements, Bharti Airtel, Titan

THE BIG STORY
The White House unveiled details of the trade truce reached between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, marking a significant de-escalation in trade tensions. The agreement includes a reduction of US tariffs on Chinese goods from 57% to 47%, a one-year pause in Beijing’s rare earth export restrictions, and the resumption of Chinese purchases of key US agricultural products, including 12 million metric tons of soybeans this year and 25 million annually for the next three years. The deal also halts Washington’s plans to expand its tech export blacklist, while Beijing pauses new curbs on rare earth magnets vital to advanced manufacturing.

Meanwhile, a divide within the Federal Reserve widened following last week’s 25 basis point rate cut. Several regional Fed presidents including Dallas Fed’s Lorie Logan and Cleveland Fed’s Beth Hammack  voiced opposition to further easing, arguing that policy is now near neutral and inflation remains elevated. In contrast, Governor Christopher Waller backed more cuts to cushion a softening labour market. The internal rift highlights growing policy uncertainty as the Fed weighs economic risks amid a prolonged government shutdown and mixed signals on inflation.

Data Spotlight
The Chicago Business Barometer climbed to 43.8 in October from 40.6 in September, marking the softest contraction in three months and beating expectations of 42.3. The improvement was driven by a rebound in new orders and output, though employment fell to its lowest level since February, signalling persistent weakness in hiring.

Meanwhile, Euro area inflation eased to 2.1% in October, down from 2.2% in September and in line with forecasts, its closest approach to the ECB’s 2% target since 2021. The slowdown was broad-based, with food and energy prices moderating, suggesting that price pressures in the Eurozone are cooling steadily, giving the ECB room to maintain a steady policy stance.

Takeaway: The data signal tentative signs of stabilisation in US factory activity and easing inflation in Europe, bolstering hopes for a soft landing across major economies.

WHAT HAPPENED OVERNIGHT

  • US Stocks gains on Amazon surge, logs strong weekly and monthly streaks
    • US stocks ended higher on Friday, supported by Amazon’s upbeat earnings forecast.
    • The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow all posted weekly gains, marking their longest monthly winning streaks in years.
    • Amazon shares surged 9.6% to an all-time high after projecting quarterly sales above estimates, leading tech-driven market gains.
    • Broader sentiment was tempered by Fed caution on the pace of future rate cuts, limiting upside momentum.

  • US Treasury yields steady near three-week high after Fed signals cautious stance
    • The 10-year US Treasury yield held around 4.1% on Friday, pausing after a three-session rally to a three-week high.
    • Yields were supported by the Fed’s hawkish tone, despite this week’s 25bps rate cut.
    • Chair Powell emphasized that a December rate cut isn’t guaranteed, tempering market optimism.
    • Fed officials Schmid and Logan expressed reservations about further easing, citing inflation risks.

  • US Dollar climbs to 12-week high as Fed signals caution on further cuts
    • The dollar index rose for a third straight session to 99.8, near its highest since early August, and is set to end October up 1.8%.
    • Gains were driven by the Fed’s hawkish tone, after Chair Powell downplayed the likelihood of another rate cut in December.
    • The Trump–Xi meeting offered limited relief — the US agreed to lower tariffs, while China pledged action on fentanyl exports and soybean purchases.

  • Crude oil prices steady after volatile session amid Venezuela strike rumours
    • Brent crude oil prices settled up 0.11% at $65.07 per barrel, while WTI rose 0.68% to $60.98 per barrel.
    • Oil prices ended slightly higher on Friday after a whipsaw trading session driven by conflicting reports of potential US air strikes on Venezuela.
    • Prices initially spiked on reports of imminent military action, then retreated after President Trump denied the claims on social media.


Day’s Ledger

Economic Data

  • China Oct Caixin Manufacturing PMI
  • India Oct S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
  • US Oct ISM Manufacturing PMI 

Corporate Actions

  • Earnings: 3M India, Ajanta Pharma, Ambuja Cements, Aurionpro Solutions, Bharti Airtel, Bharti Hexacom, City Union Bank, JK Paper, Kirloskar Brothers, Power Grid Corporation of India, Sundaram Finance, Taj GVK Hotels & Resorts, TATA Consumer Products, Thangamayil Jewellery, Titan Company, Wockhardt,
  • ESAF Small Finance Bank to consider fund raising
  • Silly Monks Entertainment to consider fund raising
  • Ujaas Energy to consider fund raising

 Policy Events

  • FOMC Member Daly Speaks 

Tickers to Watch

  • BANK OF BARODA Jul-Sep profit down 8.2% to ₹48.09 billion; NII up 2.7% to ₹119.54 billion; provisions fall 47.2%; GNPA at 2.16%, NNPA at 0.57%.
  • PATANJALI FOODS Jul-Sep profit jumps 67.4% to ₹5.17 billion; revenue up 21% to ₹97.99 bn.
  • MARUTI SUZUKI INDIA October sales up 7% to 2.2 lakh units; domestic up 9.4%, exports down 5.6%.
    TATA MOTORS October PV domestic sales up 27% to 61,134 units; total PV including EVs up 26.6% and total CV sales rise 10% YoY to 37,530 units; domestic up 7% to 35,108 units.
  • M&M October total sales up 25.6% to 1.2 lakh units; PV domestic up 31%; 3-wheeler sales surge 30%, and tractor sales rise 13% to 73,660 units; domestic up 12%, exports up 41%.
  • EICHER MOTORS (ROYAL ENFIELD reports record festive sales at 2.49 lakh units; total sales up 13% to 1.24 lakh units.
  • TVS MOTOR October sales up 11% to 5.43 lakh units; two-wheelers up 10%; EVs up 11%; exports up 21%.
  • KOTAK MAHINDRA BANK: Shanti Ekambaram retires as Deputy MD and Director effective Oct 31.
  • TITAGARH RAIL SYSTEMS wins ₹24.81 billion Mumbai Metro Line-5 order from MMRDA.
  • ASTRA MICROWAVE PRODUCTS JV Astra Rafael bags ₹2.86 billion defence order for IAF communication systems.
  • ZEN TECHNOLOGIES secures two defence orders worth ₹2.89 bn for anti-drone system upgrades.
  • NCC bags additional ₹7.10 billion orders in October; adds to earlier ₹68.29 bn order.
  • NTPC GREEN ENERGY signs MoU with CtrlS Datacenters for 2 GW+ renewable RTC power projects.
  • AU SMALL FINANCE BANK deputy CEO Rajeev Yadav resigns effective Oct 31.
  • ZEE MEDIA CORPORATION CEO Karan Abhishek Singh resigns effective Oct 31.
  • HINDUSTAN UNILEVER receives ₹19.86 billion tax demand notice for FY 2020–21.

MUST READ

 

See you tomorrow with another edition of The Morning Edge.

 

Have a great trading day.


‘We Shall Overcome’: How the Women’s World Cup Triumph Mirrors India’s Spirit of Belief and Resilience


Read Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain's (Retd) writes, the Indian women’s cricket team’s recent semi-final triumph and Major DP Singh’s incredible journey from war injury to marathon glory are stories of belief, resilience, and collective strength.

These aren’t isolated moments of glory; they reflect a national character shaped by empathy, courage, and an enduring will to rise. In India, belief doesn’t just endure—it multiplies.

More From BasisPoint