India’s China Trade: Volatile Exports, Rising Import Dependence

India’s trade relationship with China has entered a phase of sharp contrasts. 

India’s exports to China jumped to $2.2 billion in November 2025, up 90% from a year earlier. For April–November, exports rose 33% to $12.2 billion from $9.2 billion last year.

The surge is driven by a narrow set of products. Naphtha is the biggest contributor, with exports up 512% in October and 172% over April–October to $1.4 billion, reflecting strong Chinese demand for petrochemical feedstocks.

Electronics showed unusually sharp spikes. Printed circuit board exports leapt to $296.5 million in October—an 8,577% year-on-year rise—while April–October shipments jumped over 2,000% to $418 million. Mobile phone component exports also rose 82% to $362 million, an unusual trend given India’s large imports of these items from China.

In contrast, iron ore exports continued to fall, down 1.2% in October and 30% over April–October, while shrimp exports posted only modest growth.

Overall, India’s export growth to China is not broad-based. It is concentrated mainly in naphtha and a few atypical electronics products, rather than across India’s traditional export basket.

India’s exports of its top three products to China—naphtha, iron ore and shrimps—show sharp year-to-year swings, underscoring that they are driven by Chinese demand than by any stable export strategy.

•          Naphtha exports rose from $1.83 billion in 2021-22 to $1.91 billion in 2022-23, but then fell sharply to about $1.26 billion in 2023-24 and remained flat in 2024-25.

•          Iron ore exports were even more volatile, plunging from $2.49 billion in 2021-22 to $1.40 billion in 2022-23, surging to $3.64 billion in 2023-24, and then dropping again to $1.89 billion in 2024-25.

•          Shrimp exports have been relatively steadier but still fluctuated, rising from $823 million in 2021-22 to $924 million in 2022-23 before easing to $798 million in 2023-24 and $773 million in 2024-25.

This uneven pattern shows that India’s key exports to China lack consistency and largely rise or fall with shifts in Chinese demand, prices and policy, rather than reflecting sustained market access or diversification.

Trade Deficit
India’s trade with China remains highly imbalanced, with weak exports, rising imports and a record trade deficit expected in 2025.

Exports fell from $23.0 billion in 2021 to $15.2 billion in 2022, stayed low at $14.5 billion in 2023, and edged up to $15.1 billion in 2024. In 2025, exports are estimated to improve to $17.5 billion, still well below earlier levels.

Imports have climbed much faster—from $87.7 billion in 2021 to $102.6 billion in 2022, $91.8 billion in 2023 and $109.6 billion in 2024—before surging to an estimated $123.5 billion in 2025. This has pushed India’s trade deficit with China from $64.7 billion in 2021 to $94.5 billion in 2024, and an expected $106 billion in 2025.

Chinese data shows an even wider gap, putting India’s 2025 exports at $19.1 billion, imports at $134.3 billion and the deficit at $115.2 billion, highlighting the deepening imbalance in bilateral trade.

India–China trade data show some gaps between China Customs and India’s DGCI&S figures, though both tell the same broad story.

In November 2025, China recorded India’s exports at $1.9 billion, while India reported $2.2 billion. For January–November, China data put India’s exports at $17.5 billion compared with India data showing India’s exports at $16.0 billion. On imports, China reported $11.1 billion in November and $123.1 billion for January–November, higher than India’s figures of $10.3 billion and $113.2 billion.

For full-year 2025, China’s data implies Indian exports of $19.1 billion and imports of $134.3 billion, while India’s data shows $17.5 billion of exports and $123.5 billion of imports.

Normally, import values are higher than export values because imports include freight and insurance (CIF), while exports are recorded on an FOB basis. On that logic, India reporting lower imports from China than China reports as exports is unusual, and may point to under-invoicing of imports to reduce customs duties—an issue that warrants investigation.

Key Imports
Nearly 80% of India’s imports from China are concentrated in just four product groups: electronics, machinery, organic chemicals and plastics.

During January–October 2025, India’s imports from China were dominated by electronics, which totalled $38 billion. This included imports of mobile phone components ($8.6 billion), integrated circuits ($6.2 billion), laptops ($4.5 billion), solar cells and modules ($3.0 billion), flat-panel displays ($2.6 billion), lithium-ion batteries ($2.3 billion) and memory chips ($1.8 billion).

Machinery imports followed at $25.9 billion, with transformers alone accounting for $2.1 billion, highlighting India’s dependence on Chinese capital goods for power and industrial projects.

Organic chemicals reached $11.5 billion, driven by antibiotics imports of $1.7 billion, underscoring China’s dominance in pharmaceutical intermediates.

Plastics imports stood at $6.3 billion, including $871 million of PVC resin, while steel and steel products amounted to $4.6 billion and medical and scientific equipment added $2.5 billion.

Together, these figures show that India’s import bill from China is anchored in electronics, machinery, chemicals and materials that are difficult to substitute quickly, explaining the persistence of a large bilateral trade deficit despite efforts to diversify supply chains.

Taken together, the data shows that India’s recent export gains to China are narrow, volatile and heavily dependent on shifts in Chinese demand, rather than on durable market access or a diversified export base.

Without a sustained strategy to expand competitive manufacturing, reduce import dependence in key sectors, and strengthen trade monitoring, short-term export spikes will do little to alter the fundamentally imbalanced nature of India–China trade. 

Also read: What’s Behind the Rebound in Indian Exports to the US — and Is It Sustainable?