RBI Raises GDP Growth Projections for Apr-Jun, Jul-Sep by 20 bps; Defers FY27 Outlook

The Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee has raised its forecast for GDP growth in the first two quarters of 2026-27 by 20 basis points each, but deferred the full-year projection as it awaits the release of a new GDP series by the statistics ministry later this month.

The monetary policy statement projected GDP growth at 6.9% for April-June and 7.0% for July-September, up from 6.7% and 6.8%, respectively. Risks to the growth outlook are evenly balanced.

Announcing the policy decision, RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said the central bank would provide a full-year growth projection in the April policy, after the new GDP series is released.

The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation is scheduled to issue a revised GDP series on February 27, with the base year revised to 2022-23 from 2021-12.

“Amidst heightened geo-political tensions and elevated uncertainty, the Indian economy is in a good spot with strong growth and low inflation,” Malhotra said.

High-frequency indicators point to a continuation of strong growth momentum in the October-December quarter and beyond. With the signing of a landmark trade deal with the European Union and a US trade agreement in sight, the momentum is likely to be sustained over a longer period, he said.

Economic activity is expected to remain resilient in 2026-27. Private consumption is projected to hold up, supported by steady rural demand amid improving agricultural activity and rural labour market conditions. A recovery in urban consumption is expected to strengthen further, aided by GST rationalisation and monetary easing.

“High capacity utilisation, accelerating bank credit, conducive financial conditions, and the government’s continued emphasis on infrastructure should give an impetus to investment activity,” Malhotra said.

The Indian economy remains on a steadily improving trajectory, with real GDP growth estimated at 7.4% in 2025-26, the governor said. The Economic Survey has projected GDP growth of 6.8-7.2% in 2026-27.

“On the growth front, economic activity remains resilient,” the monetary policy statement said.