India Cuts Monsoon Rain Forecast to 90%

India Meteorological Department cut its 2026 southwest monsoon rainfall forecast to 90% of the long-period average from 92% estimated in April, signalling below-normal rain during June-September and sharpening focus on food inflation, rural demand and reservoir levels.

IMD said there was an 84% probability of below-normal or deficient rainfall. It assigned a 60% probability to deficient rainfall and 24% to below-normal rainfall. The weather office said rainfall was likely to be below normal over central India, south peninsular India and northwest India. The monsoon core zone, which includes most rainfed agriculture areas, is also likely to receive below-normal rainfall. 
June rainfall is likely to be below normal at less than 92% of LPA, while above-normal maximum temperatures are expected over most parts of the country.

The forecast may increase market attention on food prices, sowing progress and rural consumption, especially as IMD said El Niño conditions are likely to develop during the monsoon season.