The Strait of Hormuz on Edge and India’s Fiscal Reckoning

With Iran at war and Hormuz under threat, energy, fertiliser and fiscal risks are rising fast. Geopolitics is now embedded in price.

Yield Scribe

March 3, 2026 at 12:43 PM IST

Pavel Muravev/iStock.com

Week in Numbers: Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

The biggest surprise about India’s new GDP series released this week was that it did not throw up any surprises.

Datametricx

February 28, 2026 at 1:13 PM IST

iStock.com

Base Year Revision Lifts India’s 2025-26 GDP Growth to 7.6%

With 2022–23 as the new base year, India’s revised GDP series estimates 2025-26 growth at 7.6%, enhances data coverage and methodology, and smoothens earlier volatility in the growth trajectory.

BasisPoint Insight

February 27, 2026 at 12:18 PM IST

iStocks/AlexLMX

New GDP Series May Recast Growth, Deficit Math

The new GDP series could alter fiscal deficit calculations and shape expectations from monetary policy.

BasisPoint Groupthink

February 26, 2026 at 3:38 PM IST

iStock.com

Government Addresses Borrowing Concerns with Fresh Bilateral Switches

BasisPoint Insight

February 13, 2026 at 11:00 AM IST

Budget 2026

Budget as Trade Policy: A Practical Roadmap for Global Integration

The Budget links tax, customs, and services reforms to the India–EU FTA, showing how domestic policy is being reshaped to support long-term trade integration.

Students of Madras School of Economics, Chennai

February 4, 2026 at 3:41 PM IST

PIB

Budget 2026

Budget Arithmetic Leaves Bonds on Edge

India’s 2026–27 fiscal arithmetic offered little comfort to bond investors, with higher borrowing, sticky interest costs and no clear backstop for supply pressures.

Yield Scribe

February 1, 2026 at 2:02 PM IST

RBI

Budget 2026

India Budget Not Much of a Surprise

A debt-led fiscal anchor, steady capex push and cautious tax math left Budget 2026-27 predictable, credible and largely devoid of surprises.

Madhavi Arora

February 1, 2026 at 1:43 PM IST

Budget 2026

India’s Deficit Promise Was Kept by Cutting Where It Hurts

The Centre met its deficit promise not through revenue strength, but by cutting transfers and development spend, shifting stress to states.

Rajesh Mahapatra

February 1, 2026 at 11:53 AM IST

File Photo

Budget 2026

India budget leaves sovereign credit profile broadly unchanged: Moody’s

BasisPoint Insight

February 1, 2026 at 10:03 AM IST

Week in Numbers: Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

December data showed a sharp improvement in industrial output and fiscal metrics, indicating a firmer economy and improving government finances.

Datametricx

January 31, 2026 at 1:02 PM IST

Istock.com

Week in Numbers: Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

The high-frequency indicators pointed to an improvement in economic activity at the start of the year, suggesting stronger momentum in January.

Datametricx

January 24, 2026 at 11:25 AM IST

istock.com

Opinion

Budget Unlikely to Offer any Succour to Capital Markets

Despite a ₹50-trillion market-cap wipeout, fiscal constraints, weak tax buoyancy and currency pressures leave little room for the Budget 2026 to offer direct relief to capital markets.

Chokkalingam G

January 24, 2026 at 6:38 AM IST

iStock.com

Budget 2026

India’s Bond Market Will Test the RBI in 2026-27

Nearly ₹30 trillion in bond supply and fragile demand mean yields will remain high in 2026–27 unless the RBI steps in as the buyer of last resort.

Yield Scribe

January 20, 2026 at 7:02 AM IST

Finance Ministry

Budget 2026

State Finances are India’s New Macroeconomic Frontier

India’s fiscal story can no longer be read through the Union Budget alone. State borrowing and spending now shape growth, interest rates and macroeconomic stability.

Duvvuri Subbarao

January 20, 2026 at 3:30 AM IST

Budget 2026

Budget’s Bond Test Lies in Solving the States’ Borrowing Problem

With ₹30.5 trillion of bond supply looming, would it make more sense for the federal government to borrow on behalf of states?

Yield Scribe

January 17, 2026 at 8:26 AM IST

istock

Are Central Banks Enabling Unsustainable Government Deficits?

Recent developments suggest that the US Federal Reserve's bond purchases are no longer just a "monetary operation," but an essential component of the US government's fiscal financing. The sooner that the Fed and other similarly situated central banks recognise the trap they have created for themselves, the better.

Raghuram Rajan

January 12, 2026 at 1:50 PM IST

Via WikiCommons

Beyond the Fiscal Target: Aligning Fiscal Discipline with Growth

With nominal growth easing and revenues under pressure, Budget 2026-27 will test if fiscal consolidation can remain credible without squeezing growth-critical capex.

Shilpashree Venkatesh

January 6, 2026 at 6:51 AM IST

Finance Ministry

Week in Numbers: Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

India’s industrial output grew at the fastest pace in 25 months in November, even as manufacturing PMI fell to the lowest level in 24 months.

Datametricx

January 3, 2026 at 10:34 AM IST

istock.com

Government Seeks Parliament Approval to Spend Net Additional ₹415 Billion in FY26

BasisPoint Insight

December 1, 2025 at 9:35 AM IST

Week in Numbers: Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

The RBI has a nice problem to have – a booming economy and record-low inflation. This may make the MPC’s policy decision a tighter call and keep markets on tenterhooks.

Datametricx

November 29, 2025 at 1:07 PM IST

iStock.com

Bihar’s Election Windfall Pushes States Deeper into Fiscal Populism

Bihar’s landmark election result has reinforced a model of cash-driven welfare politics that now shapes fiscal outcomes across many Indian states, with the 3% deficit limit.

BasisPoint Insight

November 16, 2025 at 12:35 PM IST

Fiscal Calm Masks Fragile Math Built on Windfalls and Deflators

India may meet its 4.4% deficit goal this year, but only through one-off gains and statistical cushions that leave its fiscal base exposed.

BasisPoint Groupthink

November 13, 2025 at 12:36 PM IST

Finance Ministry

Week in Numbers: Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

India’s industrial growth more than doubled in the July-September quarter, but remained well below the expansion signalled by the PMI.

Datametricx

November 1, 2025 at 7:57 AM IST

Optical Illusion in Public Capex

The public investment surge this year appears impressive, but much of its strength comes from accounting adjustments and base effects rather than new capital creation

Madhavi Arora

October 9, 2025 at 6:48 AM IST

iStcoks/mgstudyo

Week in Numbers – Tracking India’s Economic Pulse

Not withstanding the government’s confidence, the fiscal situation appears under pressure due to income tax cuts in the Budget and GST rationalisation.

Datametricx

October 6, 2025 at 11:56 AM IST

iStock.com

Briefing

Currencies Under Siege as Fiscal Dominance Takes Hold

When fiscal dominance weakens central banks, the first casualty is often currency stability. The rupee’s path today echoes the struggles of the yen and yuan.

V Thiagarajan

September 26, 2025 at 6:56 AM IST

iStock/Pla2na

State Bond Glut is Breaking Monetary Transmission

Excess supply of state government bonds is distorting markets, widening spreads, and choking the Reserve Bank’s monetary transmission.

Yield Scribe

September 3, 2025 at 7:40 AM IST

India’s Bond Market Faces Harsh Reality as Fiscal Pressures Mount

GST rationalisation gives growth a fiscal lifeline but deepens deficit fears, leaving India’s bond market trapped in a “higher for longer” yield cycle.

Yield Scribe

August 19, 2025 at 4:00 AM IST

iStock.com

S&P Upgrade Should Open a Window for Structural Reforms

India’s S&P upgrade to BBB boosts confidence. The real gain will come if it’s used to spur investment, jobs, and trade resilience.

Dhananjay Sinha

August 14, 2025 at 4:34 PM IST

iStock.com

India Paid a Growth Price to Win a Ratings Prize

India’s fiscal discipline won a ratings upgrade and lowered capital costs. Now it must use that space to shield growth from global headwinds.

Kalyan Ram

August 14, 2025 at 3:20 PM IST

Finance Ministry

Fiscal Puritanism Is India’s Bet On Sovereign Strength

India’s quiet fiscal restraint is more than prudence. It is a strategic choice to secure cheaper capital, improve ratings, and achieve long-term growth.

BasisPoint Groupthink

July 11, 2025 at 4:35 AM IST

RBI

India’s April–May Fiscal Deficit Narrows Sharply on RBI Windfall, Higher Revenues

BasisPoint Insight

June 30, 2025 at 12:32 PM IST

Capex Heavy Lifting Again Left For The Fag End

The government has to spend ₹2.61 trillion in February-March to meet its revised capex target for 2024-25

BasisPoint Insight

March 2, 2025 at 7:56 AM IST

The Bureau