Forward Guidance Fades, the Fed’s Reaction Function Takes Over

Warsh’s restrained Fed is shifting markets from policy promises to the reaction function – and making each meeting, and its minutes, matter more.

V Thiagarajan

July 13, 2026 at 4:01 AM IST

Federal Reserve

Market Wrap

Equities Slump as Renewed US-Iran Tensions Lift Oil; Bond Yields Jump

An end-of-day recap of all that transpired in the Indian markets, highlighting the major price movements and the factors driving them

Dehuti Jani

July 8, 2026 at 12:11 PM IST

The Central Banking Desk

Payrolls Cool the Fed Hike Case After Sintra

Daily insights on the decisions, signals and risks shaping central-bank policy across the world’s major economies.

BasisPoint Insight

July 3, 2026 at 10:33 AM IST

Federal Reserve

The Central Banking Desk

Fed Hike Case Moves to Payrolls Week

Daily insights on the decisions, signals and risks shaping central-bank policy across the world’s major economies.

BasisPoint Insight

June 29, 2026 at 12:28 PM IST

US Fed

The RBI has Delayed Tightening Without Abandoning it

Falling crude has eased pressure for rate hikes, but inflation risks persist, giving the RBI more time without changing its eventual policy path.

Nishat Anjum

Richard Fargose

June 26, 2026 at 5:20 AM IST

Linkedin/PoonamGupta

The Warsh Fed Less Talk, More Price Stability

Kevin Warsh's first Fed meeting signals a shift towards price stability, supply-side economics and fewer policy signals for markets.

Anuj Agarwal

June 25, 2026 at 6:23 AM IST

Wikimedia Commons

The Central Banking Desk

Fed Hike Case Faces PCE Test

Daily insights on the decisions, signals and risks shaping central-bank policy across the world’s major economies.

BasisPoint Insight

June 25, 2026 at 3:22 AM IST

US Federal Reserve

The Maestro, Warsh and the Dangerous Illusion of Forward Guidance

As Kevin Warsh questions forward guidance, Alan Greenspan’s legacy revives a central banking truth: credibility comes from honesty about uncertainty.

R. Gurumurthy

June 24, 2026 at 3:19 AM IST

US Fed

Market Wrap: Global Sell-Off Grips Markets; Sensex Drops Nearly 900 Points

An end-of-day recap of all that transpired in the Indian markets, highlighting the major price movements and the factors driving them

BasisPoint Insight

June 23, 2026 at 12:37 PM IST

istock.com

RBI’s Capital Flows Strategy Faces Risks in a Rising Rate World

By relying on capital inflows and intervention instead of rate hikes, the RBI may be postponing inflation and currency pressures rather than resolving them.

Smita Roy Trivedi

Abhiman Das

June 23, 2026 at 5:58 AM IST

iStock.com

Alan Greenspan (1926–2026): The Godfather of the Modern Bubble

Greenspan gave markets the Greenspan put: an invisible Fed safety net that soothed every sell-off, until the bubbles got too big to ignore.

Vivek Kaul

June 23, 2026 at 3:11 AM IST

US Fed

Travel well, Mr Greenspan

Daily insights on the decisions, signals and risks shaping central bank policy across the world’s major economies.

BasisPoint Insight

June 22, 2026 at 4:11 PM IST

US Fed

Former Fed chair Alan Greenspan Dies at 100

BasisPoint Insight

June 22, 2026 at 12:48 PM IST

Market wrap

Equities Rise on IT Rebound, Softer Oil; Rupee Snaps Winning Streak

An end-of-day recap of all that transpired in the Indian markets, highlighting the major price movements and the factors driving them

Dehuti Jani

June 22, 2026 at 11:41 AM IST

istock

Market Wrap

Equities, Rupee Gain for Fifth Straight Session on Lower Oil Prices

An end-of-day recap of all that transpired in the Indian markets, highlighting the major price movements and the factors driving them

Dehuti Jani

June 18, 2026 at 11:57 AM IST

When the Strongest Move Is Not to Move

As inflation risks collide with softer growth, the RBI's hold reflects a harder test of monetary policy: knowing when not to overreact.

Sparsh Chhabra

June 18, 2026 at 11:16 AM IST

The US-Iran Agreement Is a First Step

The US-Iran agreement has calmed markets. But can it withstand the political and economic challenges ahead?

Mohamed A. El-Erian

June 18, 2026 at 10:50 AM IST

Istock.com

Warsh’s Fed has Put Inflation Credibility Ahead of Market Comfort

The new Chair’s hawkish debut was less about an imminent rate rise than restoring discipline, credibility and uncertainty to US monetary policy.

BasisPoint Groupthink

June 18, 2026 at 3:56 AM IST

US Fed

The Central Banking Desk:

The Central Banking Desk: Warsh’s Fed Puts Hikes Back on the Table

Daily insights on the decisions, signals and risks shaping central-bank policy across the world’s major economies.

BasisPoint Insight

June 18, 2026 at 2:44 AM IST

Federal Reserve

The Morning Edge

Asian Markets Mixed as Hawkish Fed Offsets Relief From US-Iran Deal

Here’s your quick read to start the day: a chatty, no-fuss look at overnight moves, the big story, what’s on the docket, and the tickers you need to watch.

Richard Fargose

June 18, 2026 at 2:14 AM IST

Federal Reserve

Market Wrap: Equities Extend Four-Day Rally; Rupee Hits Six-Week High

An end-of-day recap of all that transpired in the Indian markets, highlighting the major price movements and the factors driving them

Dehuti Jani

June 17, 2026 at 12:09 PM IST

istock.com

The Fed Has Been Honest and Stupid

It would be easy—and a mistake—to blame the US Federal Reserve’s many blunders on corrupt bureaucrats or imagined conspiracies. The truth of the matter is that the central bank relies on an outdated regional map and lagging indicators that no longer tell the whole story, while battling macroeconomic blazes that politicians stoke.

Todd G. Buchholz

June 17, 2026 at 3:12 AM IST

Via WikiCommons

The Central Banking Desk:

The Central Banking Desk: Fed Gets Oil Reprieve Before Warsh’s First FOMC

Daily insights on the decisions, signals and risks shaping central-bank policy across the world’s major economies.

BasisPoint Insight

June 15, 2026 at 2:42 PM IST

Foreign Money Returns but Conviction Remains Short

Foreign investors have rushed back into government bonds after the latest policy measures, but their preference for shorter maturities suggests caution remains.

Nishat Anjum

June 9, 2026 at 2:42 PM IST

When Good News Turns Bad for Markets

A strong US jobs report rattled markets, exposing the tension between resilient growth, stubborn inflation, elevated rates and stretched AI valuations.

Dhananjay Sinha

June 8, 2026 at 6:06 AM IST

Istock.com

Masterclass with Michael Patra

Central Banking 101: Origins, Ideas and Institutions

After four decades at the RBI, Michael Patra enters classroom and traces how central banks evolved to safeguard trust, stability and confidence in this new Masterclass series.

Michael Debabrata Patra

May 25, 2026 at 7:41 AM IST

nibmindia.org

The Rupee Cannot Be Defended by RBI Alone

RBI can smooth rupee volatility, but lasting stability needs a coordinated fiscal, reform and external-sector response from the government.

Arvind Mayaram

May 25, 2026 at 7:00 AM IST

Market Wrap

Benchmarks End Flat as Oil Rebound Caps Gains

An end-of-day recap of all that transpired in the Indian markets, highlighting the major price movements and the factors driving them

Dehuti Jani

May 21, 2026 at 11:38 AM IST

iStock.com

Bank Indonesia Has Chosen Currency Defence Over Comfort

The rupiah’s slide left Bank Indonesia with shrinking room for patience. The 50-bp hike is as much about credibility as inflation.

BasisPoint Groupthink

May 20, 2026 at 12:49 PM IST

Istock.com

Private Credit’s Shadow Banking Boom Carries Familiar Risks

As private credit swells into a multi-trillion-dollar market, regulators may be underestimating the systemic risks lurking beneath its opaque structure.

Rahul Ghosh

May 19, 2026 at 6:13 AM IST

Istock.com

The Two-Year Yield Is Starting to Challenge the Fed

The two-year Treasury yield is beginning to price a world where the next Fed move may no longer be a cut.

V Thiagarajan

May 18, 2026 at 5:54 AM IST

Federal Reserve

Gold, the Rupee and India’s External Sector Déjà Vu

As balance-of-payments pressures intensify and the rupee weakens, policymakers once again appear to be searching for the easiest pressure valve without paralysing the productive economy.

Arvind Mayaram

May 14, 2026 at 2:58 PM IST

iStock.com

Turmoil at the Fed Won't End Anytime Soon

It may be tempting to regard US President Donald Trump’s attacks on the Federal Reserve as a personal vendetta against outgoing Chair Jerome Powell. But Trump’s hostility reflects a broader trend: the erosion of conservative support for independent central banks worldwide.

Nicolas Jabko

May 13, 2026 at 3:52 AM IST

White House

Market Wrap

Equities Rally as Oil Slumps on Hopes of US-Iran Peace Deal

An end-of-day recap of all that transpired in the Indian markets, highlighting the major price movements and the factors driving them

Dehuti Jani

May 6, 2026 at 11:33 AM IST

Kagenmi

Jerome Powell’s Finest Hour

Just as Winston Churchill is primarily remembered for facing down the Nazi onslaught in World War II, outgoing US Federal Reserve Jerome Powell is likely to be remembered for his courageous defense of the Fed’s independence against President Donald Trump’s attacks. Like Churchill, he will be forgiven his major policy errors.

Desmond Lachman

May 6, 2026 at 3:14 AM IST

Federal Reserve

Market Wrap

Equities Fall as Brent Crude Nears Four-Year High and Rupee Hits Record Low

An end-of-day recap of all that transpired in the Indian markets, highlighting the major price movements and the factors driving them

Dehuti Jani

April 30, 2026 at 11:45 AM IST

Powell, Power, and the Cost of Credibility

Jerome Powell’s restraint under sustained political pressure shows that central banking credibility is shaped as much by conduct as by policy.

R. Gurumurthy

April 30, 2026 at 10:26 AM IST

White House

The Morning Edge

Asian Markets Down as Oil Surge, FOMC Division Weighs on Sentiment

Here’s your quick read to start the day: a chatty, no-fuss look at overnight moves, the big story, what’s on the docket, and the tickers you need to watch.

Richard Fargose

Dehuti Jani

April 30, 2026 at 1:52 AM IST

Federal Reserve

Market Wrap

Benchmarks Rise on Earnings Boost Despite Oil Above $114

An end-of-day recap of all that transpired in the Indian markets, highlighting the major price movements and the factors driving them

Dehuti Jani

April 29, 2026 at 11:36 AM IST

iStock.com

The Morning Edge

Oil Surge and Policy Uncertainty Keep Asian Markets on Edge

Here’s your quick read to start the day: a chatty, no-fuss look at overnight moves, the big story, what’s on the docket, and the tickers you need to watch.

Richard Fargose

Dehuti Jani

April 29, 2026 at 2:03 AM IST

istocks

Market Wrap

Benchmarks Slip as Oil Above $110, RBI Norms Pressure Banks

An end-of-day recap of all that transpired in the Indian markets, highlighting the major price movements and the factors driving them

Dehuti Jani

April 28, 2026 at 11:53 AM IST

The Morning Edge

Asian Markets Drift Lower Ahead of BOJ Decision and Iran Developments

Here’s your quick read to start the day: a chatty, no-fuss look at overnight moves, the big story, what’s on the docket, and the tickers you need to watch.

Richard Fargose

Dehuti Jani

April 28, 2026 at 2:11 AM IST

iStock.com

Trump's Self-Defeating Attacks on the Fed

Instead of quietly winding down the meritless investigation of US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, the Trump administration has ramped it up, with prosecutors showing up unannounced at the Fed’s construction site. But the president's political charade will only delay the confirmation of Kevin Warsh as Powell’s successor.

Michael R. Strain

April 22, 2026 at 3:19 AM IST

White House

Market Wrap

Equities Hit Six-Week Highs as Banks Rally; US-Iran Talk Hopes Lift Sentiment

An end-of-day recap of all that transpired in the Indian markets, highlighting the major price movements and the factors driving them

Dehuti Jani

April 21, 2026 at 11:37 AM IST

Market Wrap

Equities Fall as Oil Breaches $100, West Asia Tensions Weigh

An end-of-day recap of all that transpired in the Indian markets, highlighting the major price movements and the factors driving them

Dehuti Jani

April 13, 2026 at 11:40 AM IST

RBI’s Crowded Messaging Risks Diluting Policy Signal

Bundled announcements blur the RBI’s policy signal. A separate financial stability policy and a tighter, single-voice format could restore clarity.

R. Gurumurthy

April 13, 2026 at 4:46 AM IST

Market Wrap

Benchmarks Recover Losses on Rupee Surge on RBI Measures

An end-of-day recap of all that transpired in the Indian markets, highlighting the major price movements and the factors driving them

Dehuti Jani

April 2, 2026 at 11:35 AM IST

iStock.com

Market Wrap

Rupee Hits Record Low, Equities Log Fifth Straight Weekly Loss

An end-of-day recap of all that transpired in the Indian markets, highlighting the major price movements and the factors driving them

Dehuti Jani

March 27, 2026 at 11:39 AM IST

The Morning Edge

Risk aversion returns as Middle East tensions cloud markets despite strike pause

Here’s your quick read to start the day: a chatty, no-fuss look at overnight moves, the big story, what’s on the docket, and the tickers you need to watch.

Richard Fargose

March 27, 2026 at 1:50 AM IST

White House

Be Wary of Gold Price Correction

Gold’s rally, inflated by a $700–1000 war risk premium, is colliding with rising yields, a stronger dollar and weak demand, raising the risk of a deeper correction.

G. Chandrashekhar

March 24, 2026 at 3:24 AM IST

iStock.com/rvimages

Market Wrap

Equities Post Worst Session Since June 2024 as HDFC Bank Rout, Oil Surge Combine

An end-of-day recap of all that transpired in the Indian markets, highlighting the major price movements and the factors driving them

Dehuti Jani

March 19, 2026 at 11:27 AM IST

The Morning Edge

Oil Above $100 and Fed Outlook Weigh on Asian Markets

Here’s your quick read to start the day: a chatty, no-fuss look at overnight moves, the big story, what’s on the docket, and the tickers you need to watch.

Richard Fargose

March 19, 2026 at 1:44 AM IST

Federal Reserve

A Proposal for Strengthening the RBI’s Market Operations

To keep the rupee stable in a volatile world, the RBI may need $1 trillion in reserves and smarter deployment of global dollar liquidity tools.

Michael Debabrata Patra

March 16, 2026 at 4:55 AM IST

What Will the Fed's "Warsh Era" Bring?

The next Federal Reserve chair will inherit an institution that, by any historical measure, is deeply fractured internally and lacks credibility externally. By strengthening the Fed’s analytical framework and establishing a "balance-sheet theory," Kevin Warsh can oversee the institution's return to excellence.

Mohamed A. El-Erian

February 26, 2026 at 11:48 AM IST

The Morning Edge

Asian Shares Gain on Tariff Ruling Relief, Uncertainty Persists

Here’s your quick read to start the day: a chatty, no-fuss look at overnight moves, the big story, what’s on the docket, and the tickers you need to watch.

Richard Fargose

February 23, 2026 at 1:28 AM IST

The Supreme Court of the United States

The Morning Edge

Asian Markets Mixed as Iran Tensions and Hawkish Fed Weigh on Sentiment

Here’s your quick read to start the day: a chatty, no-fuss look at overnight moves, the big story, what’s on the docket, and the tickers you need to watch.

Richard Fargose

February 20, 2026 at 1:33 AM IST

iStock.com

The Hidden Risks of Simplifying US Bank Supervision

he Federal Reserve has recently begun to overhaul its approach to bank oversight, raising the bar for enforcement and leaning more heavily on data-driven tools. These changes could impede regulators’ ability to identify emerging risks at a time when the US financial system faces hidden losses and structural weaknesses.

Amit Seru

February 13, 2026 at 3:28 PM IST

Via WikiCommons

Kevin Warsh's Dangerous Monetary Nostalgia

The next Fed chair seems to think that the large size of the central bank’s balance sheet reflects a discretionary policy choice which can and should be reversed. In reality, however, the Fed's balance sheet has become part of the financial system’s core infrastructure, and shrinking it would carry serious risks.

Lucrezia Reichlin

February 9, 2026 at 3:53 PM IST

Market Wrap

Equities Benchmarks Snap Three-Day Rally on Profit-Taking

An end-of-day recap of all that transpired in the Indian markets, highlighting the major price movements and the factors driving them

Dehuti Jani

February 5, 2026 at 11:45 AM IST

Briefing

The Imperatives of a Warsh Fed

Kevin Warsh’s Fed would not rewrite doctrine but would enforce imperatives: restore rate primacy, shrink the balance sheet, and let markets price risk again.

V Thiagarajan

February 5, 2026 at 2:48 AM IST

Scott Bessent Is in Denial – and the Bond Market Is Watching

Bessent has continued to choose loyalty to Trump’s reckless whims over any semblance of fiscal responsibility.

Desmond Lachman

January 23, 2026 at 10:31 AM IST

The US Department of the Treasury

Japan’s Bond Shock Isn’t a Crisis — But It May Be a Warning Shot

Japan’s bond shock isn’t a collapse, but a warning that fiscal credibility, safe assets and global rate stability can no longer be taken for granted.

R. Gurumurthy

January 21, 2026 at 3:29 PM IST

iStock.com

Navigating the Trump-Powell Feud

Even if the feud between the Trump administration and the Fed does not turn out to be catastrophic, the challenge is to transform it into something constructive.

Mohamed A. El-Erian

January 16, 2026 at 3:58 AM IST

White House

Are Central Banks Enabling Unsustainable Government Deficits?

Recent developments suggest that the US Federal Reserve's bond purchases are no longer just a "monetary operation," but an essential component of the US government's fiscal financing. The sooner that the Fed and other similarly situated central banks recognise the trap they have created for themselves, the better.

Raghuram Rajan

January 12, 2026 at 1:50 PM IST

Via WikiCommons

What the Fed Moment Reveals About America’s Malignant Normality

Why Trump was never the real anomaly, and how institutions, professionals, and elites slowly learned to treat democratic danger as routine.

R. Gurumurthy

January 12, 2026 at 8:24 AM IST

White House

Why Trump Has an Affordability Problem

As prices stay nearly 25% above pre-pandemic levels, Trump’s dismissal of affordability fears ignores tariffs, inflation psychology, and the everyday costs squeezing US households.

Michael R. Strain

December 26, 2025 at 3:42 AM IST

Kremlin

How the Fed Became a Lender of Immediate Resort

By acting as a lender of immediate resort, the Fed may have steadied markets, but it also left the underlying incentives unchanged, setting the stage for the next crisis and putting its independence under strain.

Amit Seru

December 25, 2025 at 6:01 AM IST

Federal Reserve

Market Wrap

Equities End Lower for Fourth Straight Session as Caution Prevails

An end-of-day recap of all that transpired in the Indian markets, highlighting the major price movements and the factors driving them

Dehuti Jani

December 18, 2025 at 11:36 AM IST

iStock.com

Market Wrap

Equities Extend Fed-Led Rebound; Auto Sales Hit Record November High

An end-of-day recap of all that transpired in the Indian markets, highlighting the major price movements and the factors driving them

Dehuti Jani

December 12, 2025 at 12:33 PM IST

Istock.com

Market Wrap

Sensex, Nifty Rebound After Fed Cut; Rupee Hits New Low

An end-of-day recap of all that transpired in the Indian markets, highlighting the major price movements and the factors driving them

Dehuti Jani

December 11, 2025 at 11:41 AM IST

Market Wrap

Equities Slip as Investors Await Fed Decision

An end-of-day recap of all that transpired in the Indian markets, highlighting the major price movements and the factors driving them.

Dehuti Jani

December 10, 2025 at 12:00 PM IST

US Federal Reserve

Market Wrap

Sensex, Nifty Extend Slide as Fed Uncertainty and Trade Deal Worries Weigh

An end-of-day recap of all that transpired in the Indian markets, highlighting the major price movements and the factors driving them

Dehuti Jani

December 9, 2025 at 11:39 AM IST

istock

Why India Keeps Paying the Psychological Price for the Fed’s Mixed Signals

India’s markets remain steady on fundamentals but still swing to every hint of Federal Reserve uncertainty, revealing how psychology now shapes price action.

Kirti Tarang Pande

December 7, 2025 at 5:35 AM IST

US Federal Reserve

Deregulation in an Age of Imperial Ambition

Washington’s push to unwind post-crisis safeguards signals a deeper shift: political ambition overtaking regulatory discipline. As US institutions dilute standards they once enforced globally, the credibility underpinning the rules-based order begins to erode, with worldwide consequences.

Srinath Sridharan

December 2, 2025 at 7:18 AM IST

Get Ready for an Overdue Fed Overhaul

A fractured Fed, unreliable data, and colliding goals have pushed policy into uncertainty. What matters now is not who votes—but whether the institution can evolve.

Mohamed A. El-Erian

November 29, 2025 at 7:49 AM IST

Federal Reserve

Market Wrap

Markets Retreat Amid Global Risk-Off Wave; Rupee Hits Record Low

An end-of-day recap of all that transpired in the Indian markets, highlighting the major price movements and the factors driving them.

Dehuti Jani

November 21, 2025 at 11:51 AM IST

Amey Bane/iStockphoto.com

Is Bessent Right About the Fed?

Did the Fed’s aggressive asset purchases inflate risky bubbles and blur its core mandate? A closer look at how unconventional policy may have compromised financial stability.

Willem H. Buiter

November 5, 2025 at 7:25 AM IST

The US Department of the Treasury

RBI’s Auction Rebuff Calms Bonds, but Upside Risks to Yields Remain

India’s central bank’s surprise rejection of bids in a seven-year bond sale soothed markets briefly, yet underlying demand-supply tensions remain entrenched.

Yield Scribe

November 2, 2025 at 3:13 PM IST

Cross-Currency

Fed Cuts, Powell Cautions; Xi, Trump Begin Bargain Talks

A quick take on global markets before the noise begins.

V Thiagarajan

October 30, 2025 at 4:45 AM IST

Fed Cuts Rates but Powell Signals Pause Ahead

The probability of another cut in December dropped sharply from over 90% a day earlier to below 70%, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.

BasisPoint Insight

October 30, 2025 at 1:55 AM IST

US Federal Reserve

Are Global Markets Truly Steady or Just Holding Their Breath?

Amid tight policies and global uncertainty, financial markets continue to function smoothly, reflecting resilience built through hard-earned lessons

Babuji K

October 28, 2025 at 7:20 AM IST

iStock.com

Cross-Currency

Trump-Xi Hopes Lift Mood as Markets Chase Ghosts of Past Truces

Cross-Currency is BasisPoint’s daily markets note by V. Thiagarajan, decoding global shifts through currencies and the moods that move them.

V Thiagarajan

October 28, 2025 at 5:36 AM IST

Federal Reserve

Interview

Calm Hands Steer India Through Policy Storms

Dr. Michael Patra’s new book reveals the inner theatre of India’s central banking—from crisis firefighting to quiet reforms.

Kalyan Ram

October 27, 2025 at 4:56 AM IST

Briefing

Fed Vs RBI: How They Differ in Monetary Policy, Rates, Inflation Targeting

Inside the Fed and RBI: Why Two Central Banks See Inflation and Growth Differently

Babuji K

October 11, 2025 at 4:44 AM IST

iStock.com

The Morning Edge - FOMC Minutes, Nikola

A newsletter designed to prepare you for the day, offering a concise summary of overnight developments and key events ahead that could influence your workday.

Richard Fargose

February 20, 2025 at 1:44 AM IST

The Morning Edge

A newsletter designed to prepare you for the day, offers a concise summary of overnight developments and key events that could influence your day

Richard Fargose

February 18, 2025 at 2:12 AM IST

The Bureau

India June CPI Highest Since December 2024 as Food Inflation Tops 5%

Trump says Hormuz open for non-Iranian ships, but for a fee

Equities Recover on IT Rally; Rupee Falls as Oil Rises

Asia Rises Despite Escalating US-Iran Conflict and Higher Oil Prices

Equity MF Inflows Revive in June; Debt Withdrawals Keep Overall Flows Negative

India–UK CETA: Mapping UK's Export Winners

Brent jumps above $76 as US strikes Iran, sanctions return

India’s Water Crisis Is the Price of Years of Policy Neglect

Flawed Design, Poor Planning Make Extreme Heat Conditions Worse For Indian Cities

The Foster Mother of Lodhi Garden

Shyam Sundar Sharma