Risk-Off Mood in Asia Ahead of Heavy US Data Week

GLOBAL MOOD: Cautiously Risk-off
Drivers: Japan GDP, Fed Hawkish Signals, US Inflation Concerns

Asian markets adopted a cautious, mildly risk-off tone as investors awaited a wave of US data and clarity on the Fed’s next steps. Japan stock indices edged lower after Japan’s economy contracted for the first time in six quarters.

TODAY’S WATCHLIST
 - India Trade Data
 - US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index
 - FOMC Member Williams and Kashkari Speaks 

THE BIG STORY
Newly released financial disclosures show that President Donald Trump purchased at least $82 million in corporate and municipal bonds between late August and early October, with the maximum potential value of those transactions exceeding $337 million. The filings, released under the Ethics in Government Act, list over 175 separate purchases across sectors that have benefited from his administration’s policy agenda, including areas tied to financial deregulation. Most of the assets were municipal and public-agency-linked bonds, raising fresh questions about presidential financial activity during an election-sensitive period.

Meanwhile, Federal Reserve officials continued to signal firm resistance to expectations of a December rate cut. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, speaking Friday, reiterated that she would oppose lowering rates again unless inflation showed clear and convincing progress toward the 2% target. Logan warned that price pressures remain too high and too persistent, and that only "modestly restrictive" policy is appropriate for now. Although she is not a voter until next year, her stance adds to a growing chorus of Fed voices urging caution after the October rate cut, stressing that the labour market’s cooling has so far been only gradual. 

Data Spotlight US energy firms injected 45 billion cubic feet of natural gas into storage in the week ending 7 November, topping expectations for a 34 bcf build. Total inventories rose to 3,960 bcf, leaving stocks 0.2% below last year’s level but 4.5% above the five-year average, signalling comfortable supply ahead of winter.

In Europe, the Eurozone economy expanded at a steady pace in Q3, while the region’s trade surplus widened sharply. The Eurozone surplus rose to €19.4 billion in September from €12.9 billion a year earlier, driven by a 7.7% rise in exports versus a 5.3% increase in imports. In the broader EU, the surplus climbed to €16.3 billion, supported by stronger machinery & vehicles, chemicals, and food & drink shipments. Export gains were strongest to the US, the UK, and Switzerland while exports to China fell 2.5%. Imports increased across key sectors, including machinery & vehicles, chemicals, and food & drink.

Takeaway: Strong US gas injections keep inventories well supplied, while rising Eurozone trade surpluses highlight resilient external demand despite mixed global conditions.

WHAT HAPPENED OVERNIGHT

• US stocks mixed as tech rebounds, rate-cut bets ease
  • US stocks ended mixed as investors reassessed chances of a December Fed cut and awaited Nvidia’s earnings.
  • S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 closed higher; the Dow slipped on sector rotation.
  • Tech names bounced back, with Nvidia, Microsoft, Oracle, and Palantir up 1.1%–2.4%.
  • Fed officials signalled caution on further easing, keeping gains in check.

• US Treasury yields rise amid uncertainty on delayed data
  • The 10-year yield dipped near 4.1% early, then finished at 4.146%, up 3.5 bps.
  • Caution increased as markets awaited updated schedules for postponed economic releases.
  • Some data may not be published at all, according to the White House.

• US Dollar rebounds as traders rethink Fed trajectory
  • Dollar index fell to 99 intraday before rebounding to 99.26.
  • Policymakers questioned the case for another cut, citing inflation uncertainty and economic resilience.
  • Currency swings reflected anxiety over revised US data timelines.

• Crude oil jumps after Russian export disruption
  • Brent surged 2.19% to $64.39; WTI rose 2.39% to $60.09.
  • A Ukrainian drone strike on a Novorossiisk oil depot halted exports, driving supply-risk concerns.
  • Prices extended earlier gains as geopolitical tensions added a fresh catalyst.

Day’s Ledger

Economic Data

• India October Trade Balance Data
  
• EU Economic Forecasts
  
• US NY Empire State November Manufacturing Index
  
• Japan September Industrial Production

Corporate Actions

• Power Grid Corporation of India to consider fund raising

Policy Events

• ECB's De Guindos Speaks
• German Buba Mauderer Speaks       
• BoE MPC Member Mann
• FOMC Member Williams Speaks                                           
• ECB's Lane Speaks                                              
• FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks 

Tickers to Watch

• WEBSOL ENERGY SYSTEM signed an MoU with APEDB to build a 4 GW integrated solar cell and module plant in Andhra Pradesh.
  
• TRUALT BIOENERGY partnered with APEDB to set up a SAF facility in Andhra Pradesh with an investment of ₹22.5 billion.
  
• IRB INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPERS’ InvIT won NHAI’s TOT-17 Bundle; will pay an upfront concession fee of ₹92.7 billion for a 20-year revenue-linked period.
  
• ALEMBIC PHARMACEUTICALS received final USFDA approval for Diltiazem Hydrochloride tablets used for chronic stable angina.
  
• LUPIN cleared a USFDA Pre-Approval Inspection at its Nagpur Unit-1 facility with zero observations.
  
• KARNATAKA BANK appointed Raghavendra S Bhat as MD & CEO for one year starting November 16.
  
• MARUTI SUZUKI INDIA recalled 39,506 Grand Vitara units over potential inaccuracies in fuel indicator and warning light.
  
• OLA ELECTRIC MOBILITY began test rides of its 4680 Bharat Cell–powered S1 Pro+ (5.2 kWh) across flagship stores.

MUST READ

• SEBI Takes Its First Steps Toward Being What It Asks of Markets
  
• What Next for INDIA Bloc and MGB After Bihar Debacle?
  
• India’s Strategic Shift Toward Diversified Trade and Green Commitments
  
• The Energy Transition Is Achievable in Emerging Markets
  
• Swiss AT1 Ruling Reverberates in India
  
• Trump tariff rollback offers relief for Indian farmers
  
• As Fed hawks press their case, traders bet against December cut
  
• Trump Says He’d Back Bill to Sanction Russia’s Trading Partners
  
• How a BBC Documentary Triggered a $1 Billion Lawsuit Threat From President Trump
  
• How China Weaponized Soybeans in Trade Dispute With the US

See you tomorrow with another edition of The Morning Edge.

Have a great trading day

One door closes; another opens for India’s gem and jewellery sector

India’s gem and jewellery industry is staring at a tough new reality. The US’ steep 50% tariff on Indian jewellery imports has dealt a sharp blow to one of the country’s largest export engines, threatening jobs, competitiveness, and market share. Yet resilience is built into this sector’s long history — and that resilience is already visible.

In his latest BasisPoint Insight column, former RBI deputy governor Michael Patra traces how the industry is responding with agility, from front-loading US shipments to aggressively exploring new destinations across Mexico, the UAE, Canada, and Turkey.