Que Sera, Sera, And The Art Of Unwinding

Dear Insighters,

There are times when only a "que sera, sera” approach can put anxieties to rest. These are uncertain times, and markets are feeling it. Asked about the recent market meltdown, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman quipped:

“It is like asking if the world will be calm, if wars will end, if the Red Sea will be safer, or if there will be no sea pirates. Can anyone comment on it?”

A question for a question often makes for a good answer. Does it, though?

It is best to settle for whatever-will-be-will-be.

Must take each day as it comes, as indeed “the future's not ours to see”. 

The global stage is keeping markets on tenterhooks - tariff hostilities, ceasefire yo-yos, and unprecedented diplomatic flare-ups. The home front is also fraught with challenges—relentless freefall in equities wiping out $1 trillion in market cap over six months, dwindling consumption demand, an accounting blunder admission from a major private lender, and an intensifying North-South political battle that now extends beyond the rupee symbol row.

While chaos is the order of the day, an extended weekend unwind was a welcome break. Hope Holi’s colours worked their magic, and you’re ready to sip lemonade made from the lemons thrown at you.

Rural Stress And Macro Concerns
India’s rural economy is under strain, as Dhananjay Sinha highlights. Between 2015-16 and 2023-24, real farm sector growth averaged 4.9% annually, while real wages for farm workers barely grew at 0.8%. A widening rural income crisis calls for a policy reset.
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Beyond rural distress, the broader economy faces dwindling consumption demand, inflationary pressures, and export headwinds. In the midst of these concerns, Sitharaman’s remark on GST rationalisation came as a rare silver lining. A tax cut may be on the cards, but what does it mean for the economy? Alok Kumar Mishra warns that while lower GST rates might offer temporary relief, prolonged revenue shortfalls could trigger inflationary pressures if the government resorts to borrowing.
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The complicated GST rate structure remains a persistent challenge. Former CBIC chairman Najib Shah underscores the difficulty in balancing rate slabs and multiple exemptions. Past committees have recommended piecemeal reductions, but a comprehensive fix remains elusive.
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Markets And Banking 
Maharashtra’s annual budget bets on infrastructure spending to spur growth, projecting every rupee spent could boost economic output by ₹2.5-₹3.5. The real test lies in translating policy pronouncements into tangible outcomes while maintaining fiscal discipline, writes Debashis Acharya.
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IndusInd Bank shook the financial sector this week, revealing a ₹15.3 billion hit from FX derivative discrepancies. The stock tanked 27%, rattling investors. Devina Mehra summed up the mood: “I am a nervous investor in banks.” The RBI stepped in over the weekend, reassuring markets that IndusInd remains financially stable and well-capitalised.
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Investor nerves extend beyond IndusInd. The Nifty PSU Bank index has fallen 28% from its 52-week high, with individual public sector banks down 30-40%. But with valuations near historical turnaround levels and a ₹179 trillion credit base supporting growth, some see an opportunity for a wealth-creation cycle. Chokkalingam G makes the case for selectively stocking up.
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Meanwhile, India’s bond market remains shackled by conservative regulations. Omkar Ghaisas argues that easing trading restrictions and boosting foreign participation could improve liquidity and price discovery.
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The derivatives market is facing a reckoning. Volumes have plunged as SEBI’s regulatory tightening raises concerns over market efficiency. Sunil Goel warns that excessive intervention risks pushing trading activity offshore.
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The impact of overregulation is explored further by R. Gurumurthy, who cautions against “iatrogenesis” in financial markets—where excessive policy interventions do more harm than good.
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Into The Wild
Regulatory memory is crucial for stability, yet SEBI’s website lacks speeches by former chief Madhabi Puri Buch. Krishnadevan V argues that institutional memory is vital for policy continuity and transparency.
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After a chaotic week in markets, sometimes the best escape is into the wild - literally. Shivaram Subramaniam and Kalyan Ram take you deep into Uttarakhand’s forests, where a missing tigress has left her cubs searching for answers… much like investors in today’s markets.
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The coming weeks will no doubt bring more turbulence, more uncertainty, and more stories that demand insight and clarity. Until then, stay informed, stay ahead, and--like the markets--keep moving forward.

More on all these and much more next week. Stay in touch – for Insight and Clarity.

Ranjana Chauhan