Kharif Crop Prospects Satisfactory Overall, Risks from Excess Rainfall Remain

As the southwest monsoon has commenced its withdrawal, it is time to assess its performance and examine the harvest prospects of key crops. The good news is that, as forecast by the IMD, the country has received above-normal rainfall. Between June 1 and September 28, the country received 930 mm of rainfall, 8% above normal. 

While east and northeast India (mainly Bihar and Assam) suffered a 20% rainfall deficit, the other three regions - northwest (mainly Punjab and Rajasthan) 28%, central India 14%, and the southern peninsula 11% - had a surplus. 

It is important to note that the total seasonal rainfall is not as critical as its temporal and spatial distribution, which are crucial for agriculture. From that perspective, August and September witnessed excessive precipitation in some parts of the country (Punjab, Maharashtra, Karnataka, and Rajasthan), which reportedly inflicted crop damage. 

Although reports of adverse impacts on paddy and pulses are already in public domain, a comprehensive assessment is still ongoing. Anecdotal evidence suggests that, in addition to crop losses, excessive rains have also affected crop quality.            

Below is an assessment of the likely harvest size of key Kharif crops. Forecast production numbers are presented as ranges, based on planted area as of September 19.  

Rice
The production target for the season is 123 million tonnes, with a normal planted area (5-year average) of 40.3 million hectares. This season, the planted area was 43.8 million hectares, higher than last year’s 43.0 million hectares. The rice crop is estimated at 123-125 million tonnes, slightly above 121.8 million tonnes in 2024. Rice stocks in the country remain well above the buffer norm, and export restrictions are no longer in place.   

Maize
The production target for the season is 26 million tonnes. At 9.5 million hectares, maize has witnessed a marked expansion in planted area (8.8 million hectares last year), driven by higher demand for ethanol production under the government’s biofuel blending programme. The maize harvest is expected at 26-27 million tonnes, higher than last year’s 24.8 million tonnes. 

Pulses
This group of protein-rich legumes has faced challenges. The production target was reduced from 9.5 million tonnes in 2024 to 8.0 million tonnes this season. The planted area has also declined by 1 million hectares to 11.9 million hectares, as growers shifted to more remunerative crops, such as maize. Despite adequate early rains, excessive precipitation in August in parts of Maharashtra and Karnataka damaged crops. Output is expected at 6.7-7.0 million tonnes. To augment availability and contain rise in prices, free imports of pigeon pea (tur/arhar) and black matpe (urad) are allowed until March 2026.

Oilseeds
In addition to the two key Kharif oilseeds, soybean and groundnut, small quantities of sesamum, nigerseed, sunflowerseed and castorseed are also cultivated. Soybean area is down by 600,000 hectares to 12 million hectares, while groundnut area is marginally lower at 4.7 million hectares. Given satisfactory rainfall over the soybean belt (Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha in Maharashtra, and parts of Rajasthan), yields are expected to be reasonable. Harvest size is likely to be in the 12.0-12.5 million tonnes range, falling well short of the 16.2 million tonnes target. It is widely recognised that the government’s 2024 estimate of 15.2 million tonnes was overstated by 15-20%. Soybean production is therefore expected to be flat compared to last year.

For groundnut, Gujarat—the main producing state—received excellent rainfall, boosting yields. The groundnut crop is expected at 11-12 million tonnes, higher than the production target of 10.5 million tonnes and above last year’s 10.4 million tonnes.

Cotton
The multipurpose crop (fibre, food, and feed) has been losing acreage over the last three years. This season, the planted area has fallen to 11 million hectares (last year: 11.3 million hectares and 5-year average: 12.9 million hectares). Excessive rainfall in key cotton-growing regions (Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, and Punjab), combined with pest infestations, has caused crop loss. The government cut the production target from 35 million bales (1 bale=170 kg) last year to 33.5 million bales this year. However, actual harvest size is expected at 29.5-30.5 million bales, below the target and slightly lower than last year’s 30.7 million bales. Crop quality is also likely to be compromised. India has now become a net importer of raw cotton, with free imports allowed till December 31, 2025, and imports forecast at 3.5-4.0 million bales in 2025-26.

Sugarcane
Planted area has been expanding steadily and stands at 5.9 million hectares this year (sugar year 2025-26), up from last year’s 5.8 million hectares and 5-year average of 5.2 million hectares. Against a production target of 469 million tonnes and 2024’s actual production of 450 million tonnes, cane output is projected at 440-460 million tonnes due to excessive rainfall in Maharashtra and Karnataka. After allowing for cane diversion for ethanol, sugar production for 2025-26 is likely around 30 million tonnes, slightly lower than last year.  

Even by late September, rains continue in the southern and western parts of the country. This may cause additional damage and delay in final assessment.   

On the positive side, continuing rains are expected to improve soil moisture for Rabi planting (major crops: wheat, rapeseed/mustard, chana/chickpea), which is scheduled to begin in late October. Reservoir storage levels are satisfactory and higher than last year.  

Given the combination of Kharif production prospects, public stocks of wheat and rice, and liberal import policy (pulses, edible oil, cotton), the risk to food inflation is tilted to the downside.

If Rabi prospects also turn out to be satisfactory, food prices may remain consumer-friendly. 

The weather, however, remains the wild card. 

(Note: Except for the forecast of Kharif 2025 crop production, which is the author’s proprietary research, all data—acreage, rainfall, and production targets—are official government numbers.)