Equity Momentum Softens as Investors Await US Data and Reassess Valuations

Indian equities eased on Tuesday, breaking a six-day winning streak as investors turned cautious ahead of key US data that could influence expectations for a December Fed rate cut. Most sectors traded softer with metals, realty, consumer goods, mid-caps and tech under pressure while banking names and select media and PSU stocks held relatively firm. Adding a structural tailwind, Morgan Stanley raised its bull-case Sensex target to 107,000 by December 2026, citing expectations of a positive growth surprise and room for a market re-rating; its base-case level of 95,000 assumes continued macro stability, fiscal consolidation, stronger private investment and benign oil prices.

Top Movers of the Day
Billionbrains Garage Ventures, the parent of Groww, extended its post-listing rally for a fourth straight session, surging 11.4% to a fresh record high of ₹194. Momentum was equally strong in Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers, which has turned into a surprise outperformer up 56% in 12 sessions and now trading 92% above its IPO price.

Bharti Airtel hit a new peak of ₹2,159, rising 2%, following S&P Global Ratings’ upgrade of the telecom major to BBB. The stock has climbed 8% in seven sessions and is now 17% above its early-October low, supported by expectations of sustained deleveraging and a stable three-player market structure.

AU Small Finance Bank also touched a record high of ₹929, gaining 2% on strong volumes. The stock continues to benefit from RBI’s in-principle approval for its transition to a Universal Bank the first such approval in more than a decade.

GMR group companies saw heavy buying interest, with GMR Airports jumping 7% to a multi-year high of ₹104.80 amid a nine-fold spike in volumes. The stock has gained 10% in two days, buoyed by the company’s first profit before tax in over three years, reporting ₹1.03 billion in Q2FY26 against losses in previous quarters.

WeWork India Management gained 3.75% to ₹637 after a foreign brokerage-initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a ₹790 target, signalling nearly 24% upside. The brokerage highlighted WeWork India’s position as the country’s largest flexible workspace operator and expects the flex-space segment growing at a 17% CAGR to support annual additions of 15,000–20,000 seats over the next three years.

Futures & Options
Nifty November 2025 futures closed at 25,933.90, trading at a 23.85-point premium to the Nifty’s cash close of 25,910.05, which fell 0.40% on the day. Market volatility increased, with India VIX up 2.60% to 12.10 before expiry. HDFC Bank, Infosys, and Reliance Industries led stock futures activity ahead of the November 25, 2025, contract expiry.

Bonds
Indian government bonds traded in a narrow band on Tuesday as markets awaited fresh state borrowing and clarity on the RBI’s bond purchase trajectory. The 10-year yield eased to 6.5258%, down from 6.5435% on Monday, reflecting cautious positioning. States raised ₹13.6 billion via their latest securities auction, adding to this week’s supply and keeping yield movements contained.

Forex
The rupee ended virtually unchanged on Tuesday, closing at 88.6050 per US dollar, as modest portfolio inflows and intermittent dollar sales by state-run banks helped offset pressure from weak global equities and softer regional currencies. Flows were mixed through the session, but official dollar selling helped steady the currency and limit any meaningful depreciation.

Crypto
Crypto markets remained under heavy pressure as Bitcoin briefly slipped below $90,000 for the first time in seven months, extending its decline to 28% from the October all-time high. The downturn has been driven by uncertainty over US rate-cut prospects, weakness in global equities and profit-taking by large holders. While BTC has recovered slightly to $90,883.94, sentiment remains fragile, with the token still down 5% in 24 hours and trading in a volatile $89,300–$95,928 range.

US Stock Futures
US stock futures weakened on Tuesday as the S&P 500 extended its three-day losing streak, with concerns over stretched AI valuations dragging Nvidia and Oracle lower once again. Dow futures fell 0.3%, while S&P 500 futures slipped 0.4%, reflecting a cautious tone as investors reassess tech-led momentum. Focus shifts to key earnings reports from Home Depot today, with Lowe’s, Target, and Nvidia following Wednesday, offering new insight into consumer strength and the overall economy.

US Treasury Notes
The 10-year US Treasury yield stood at 4.106% in the European trade, down 2.5 bps on the day but still about 16 bps above its October low. Markets now await Thursday’s delayed September jobs report, though shutdown-related data issues may complicate the Fed’s assessment.

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