Asian Equities Advance as Washington Nears Deal to End Record Shutdown

GLOBAL MOOD: Risk-on
Drivers: US Shutdown Vote, US Labour Market Weakness

Asian markets turned risk-on Wednesday, lifted by Wall Street gains and optimism over an imminent end to the US government shutdown. Progress on the funding bill spurred rotation into equities and cyclicals, though caution persisted over its short-term fiscal extension

TODAY’S WATCHLIST
 -India Oct CPI
 -Earnings: Ashok Leyland, Asian Paints, and Tata Steel

THE BIG STORY
Members of the House of Representatives returned to Washington on Tuesday after a 53-day recess to vote on a bill that could end the longest government shutdown in US history. Travel chaos underscored the urgency of the moment, with nearly 1,200 flights cancelled amid widespread staff shortages caused by the closure. The bill would extend funding through 30 January, potentially setting up another fiscal confrontation early next year while keeping the government on a path of mounting debt now approaching $38 trillion. The deal is expected to bring swift relief to unpaid federal workers, low-income families reliant on food assistance, and travellers stranded by flight disruptions, though normal operations may take days to resume.

Adding an unexpected twist, the legislation also includes a controversial clause permitting eight Republican senators to seek damages from the Justice Department over alleged privacy violations tied to the January 6, 2021 Capitol riot investigation. The Senate passed the measure on Monday, and House approval would pave the way for the shutdown’s long-awaited end.

Data Spotlight
US private employers cut an average of 11,250 jobs per week in the four weeks to October 25, according to ADP Research, highlighting a loss of momentum in hiring through the second half of the month. The data has taken on added importance amid the ongoing government shutdown, now in its second month, which has delayed official Labour Department releases. Reinforcing signs of weakness, Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported 153,074 job cuts in October, the highest for the month since 2003, as businesses continued cost-cutting amid softer demand.

Takeaway: Rising private-sector layoffs point to a slowing labour market, amplifying pressure on the Fed to consider near-term policy easing.

WHAT HAPPENED OVERNIGHT

• Dow hits record as cyclicals rally, tech lags
  • US stocks ended mixed Tuesday, with optimism over a potential shutdown deal boosting cyclical sectors.
  • The Dow hit a record high as MERCK, AMGEN, and JOHNSON & JOHNSON led gains.
  • Tech stocks underperformed after SOFTBANK sold its NVIDIA stake for $5.8 billion, dragging MICRON, ORACLE, and PALANTIR lower.
    

• US Treasury markets closed for Veterans Day

• US Dollar weakens on soft jobs data, rate-cut bets
  • The dollar index fell to 99.4, pressured by weak labour data and renewed expectations of a December Fed rate cut.
  • ADP data showed private employers cutting roughly 11,000 jobs weekly in late October.
  • Shutdown deal progress reduced safe-haven demand, reinforcing dollar softness.

• Crude oil rises on sanctions, shutdown optimism
  • Brent crude oil climbed 1.72% to $65.16, while WTI rose 1.51% to $61.04.
  • Fresh US sanctions on Russian oil and optimism over a US fiscal resolution supported prices and demand outlook.

Day’s Ledger

Economic Data

• India M3 & Reserve Money
• India Oct CPI Data
• OPEC Monthly Report 

Corporate Actions

• Jul-Sep Earnings: Ashok Leyland, Asian Paints, Cochin Shipyard, Hindustan Aeronautics, IRB Infrastructure, IRCTC, Indraprastha Gas, Info Edge, Prestige Estates, Tata Steel
• HG Infra to consider raising funds
• Himatsingka to consider raising funds

Policy Events

• Fed Barr Speech
• ECB Schnabel Speech
• ECB Guindos Speech
• BoE Pill Speech
• Fed Williams Speech                             
• Fed Paulson Speech
• Fed Bostic Speech
• Fed Miran Speech 
• Fed Waller Speech
• 
  
  

Tickers to Watch

• JSW STEEL may sell up to 50% stake in Bhushan Power to JFE Steel
• VODAFONE IDEA expects long-term AGR resolution after Supreme Court ruling
• TATA POWER to invest ₹250 billion in renewable projects by FY27
• PURAVANKARA to invest ₹70 billion in new housing projects across India
• WILMAR to acquire 13% stakes in India's AWL Agri for ₹46.50 billion
• ZYDUS LIFESCIENCES marks China entry with approval for antidepressant drug
• BAJAJ FINSERV consolidated net profit up 8% at ₹22.44 billion
• BIKAJI FOODS PAT up 13.5% to ₹77.7 cr, revenue of ₹8.30 billion
• EMCURE Q2 PAT up 25%, domestic and international biz drive 13% revenue rise 

Must Read

• US House returns to Washington for vote to end government shutdown
• India, US likely to seal fair trade deal soon as talks near consensus
• GST rate cuts to propel Indian economy to 7.4% growth in FY26: NIPFP
• Sale of immovable property not 'service', outside scope of service tax: SC
• Net direct tax collection rises 7% to ₹12.92 trillion between April-Nov
• It’s Going to Be Really Hard to Work Out How Much the Shutdown Hurt the Economy
• G7 foreign ministers meet in Canada amid tensions over trade, defence, wars
  
• US aircraft carrier moves into Latin America region, escalating Venezuela tensions 

See you tomorrow with another edition of The Morning Edge.

Have a great trading day

A Just Energy Transition Needs Circular Finance

Arvind Mayaram writes, what if sustainability wasn’t about spending more—but circulating smarter?

India’s energy transition isn’t just about clean power. It’s about who benefits, who pays, and how long each rupee lasts. Circular finance flips the script: instead of locking capital in long-gestation projects, it regenerates it—through refinancing, reinvestment, and monetization. It’s not just a financial model; it’s a blueprint for equity, scale, and ecological discipline.