Asia Stocks Edge Higher Despite Iran's Denial of Hormuz Talks

Here’s your quick read to start the day: a chatty, no-fuss look at overnight moves, the big story, what’s on the docket, and the tickers you need to watch.

Kagenmi

istock.com

By Nandinee Keluskar

August 10, 2026 at 2:08 AM IST

Global Mood: Cautiously Risk-on
Drivers: Hormuz Deal Stalls on Iran Demands, Houthis Hit Aramco, Odesa Port Struck

Asia-Pacific markets opened higher on Monday despite a setback to hopes for a Strait of Hormuz deal, after Iran denied engaging in direct negotiations with the US over reopening the waterway. Japan's Nikkei 225 added 0.54%, and the Topix edged marginally higher, while South Korea's Kospi gained 0.53% and the Kosdaq advanced 1.48%. Australia's ASX 200 was 0.54% higher.

WTI crude rose 1% to just above $79 a barrel after Iran's denial dimmed optimism that had built following Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's comments last week suggesting a deal was imminent. President Trump added to the uncertainty, telling Axios the US was "only semi-negotiating" with Iran and wanted to keep economic pressure on Tehran, keeping the outlook for the critical shipping lane firmly unresolved.

THE BIG STORY
Iran moved the goalposts on a Hormuz reopening Sunday, saying an agreement with Oman on new shipping lanes was in its "final stages" but conditioning any reopening on a list of US concessions including compensation for war damage, an end to sanctions and military threats, release of frozen assets, and a halt to aggression against its regional allies. Trump said the US was "low-keying it" and only "semi-negotiating" with Tehran, watching Iran's economy deteriorate under blockade and inflation. The gap between the two sides' conditions remains wide, with the US insisting any deal must restore passage "without impediments" and no Iranian oversight while Iran insists on sovereign control. Meanwhile, the UAE reported Iran struck a vessel affiliated with its state oil company ADNOC in Hormuz, underscoring that the strait remains an active conflict zone even as diplomacy inches forward.

The Houthis struck Saudi Aramco's Jazan refinery — a 400,000 bpd facility — with a drone on Sunday, two days after Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan signed a trilateral defence pact intended as collective deterrence against regional aggression. The fire was extinguished with no injuries, but the attack on one of Riyadh's key refining assets, combined with a simultaneous strike on the port of Mocha killing seven people, underlines the widening energy infrastructure risk in the region even as peace talks continue. In Ukraine, Russia struck Odesa's seaport and power facilities in a broad overnight assault across ten regions, while Kharkiv's apartment block was hit, killing three, as Zelenskiy accused Moscow of targeting global food security by systematically attacking Ukraine's primary agricultural export hub.

Data Spotlight
The US economy unexpectedly shed 23,000 jobs in July, sharply missing forecasts of an 80,000 gain and following a downwardly revised 20,000 increase in June. Local government education declined by 50,000 and retail trade fell 19,000, while prior months were revised down by a combined 103,000. Healthcare was the sole bright spot, adding 22,000 jobs.

China's annual inflation rate eased to 0.5% in July, a six-month low and below forecasts of 0.8%, as food prices fell for a fourth consecutive month and non-food inflation slowed. Transport costs rose just 0.4% after a government fuel price cut and easing West Asia supply disruptions, while core inflation edged down to 0.9%. Monthly consumer prices fell 0.1%, defying expectations of a 0.2% gain.

Takeaway: A shock US jobs loss and mounting downward revisions signal a meaningful deterioration in the labour market, materially strengthening the case for the Federal Reserve to hold rates steady or consider easing. Meanwhile, China's slipping inflation and falling consumer prices reinforce deflationary demand pressures, pointing to diverging monetary policy pressures across the world's two largest economies.

WHAT HAPPENED OVERNIGHT

US stocks rally to record highs as weak jobs report eases Fed rate hike fears

The S&P 500 gained 0.62% to a record close, Nasdaq rose 1.30%, and the Dow added 0.28%, with all three indexes posting their biggest weekly gains since mid-April.
For the week, the S&P 500 gained 3.58%, Nasdaq rose 5.19%, and the Dow climbed 2.96%, as strong earnings and easing oil prices drove sentiment.
September Fed hike odds dropped to 44% from 55% the prior session and 67% a week ago, as the weak payrolls data shifted the policy calculus toward a potential hold.
April-June earnings season remains strong, with 85.1% of 436 reporting S&P 500 companies beating estimates, well above the 68% historical average.

US Dollar holds near 99.6 after sharp Friday decline on weak jobs data and fading Fed hike bets

July nonfarm payrolls fell 23,000, with steep downward revisions to prior months signalling a broader labour market deterioration, pushing September hike odds to 44% from 67% a week ago.
Iran denied holding direct talks with the US despite Washington claiming a deal was imminent, while Tehran maintained demands for an end to the naval blockade, sanctions relief, and war damage compensation before agreeing to any agreement.
Key inflation data due this week is the next focus for further clues on the Fed's policy path.

US Treasury yields edge higher as markets weigh inflation data and Fed policy signals

The 10-year yield rose 2 bps to 4.67%, reversing a portion of last week's decline driven by the soft July jobs report.
Yields remain 38 bps above year-ago levels, reflecting the cumulative repricing of Fed expectations since the West Asia conflict began stoking inflation.
Key inflation data due this week is expected to provide fresh direction on whether the Fed will proceed with a September rate hike, currently priced at 44% odds.
The modest yield rise came despite Iran's continued denial of direct US talks and Tehran's demands for sanctions relief and war damage compensation before agreeing to any deal.

Oil rises 1% on Friday but posts weekly loss of over 8% amid Hormuz deal uncertainty

Brent settled at $83.55/bbl, up 1.3%, and WTI at $78.18, up 1.15%, though both benchmarks lost more than 7-8% for the week as deal optimism and setbacks drove a volatile roller-coaster in sentiment.
Iran is seeking transit fees of 5-7% of cargo value, Oman is proposing 3%, while Washington wants no fees at all, with the fee dispute emerging as a key sticking point alongside US sanctions and restrictive insurance clauses.
Iran and Oman have agreed on a shipping route through the strait, but it remains unclear whether the US will accept terms that effectively give Iran control over the waterway.
Analysts noted the proposed deal in its current form is politically unacceptable for Trump domestically, with SEB Research's Schieldrop saying he would face heavy political criticism if he agreed to Iran's terms.
Iranian parliament's review of a bill to ban US and Israeli vessels from Hormuz added further uncertainty, as did signals that hostilities between Iran and the US are not yet over.
Drone attacks reduced CPC oil loadings in July by a fifth, adding another front to the multi-theatre supply disruption narrative.
The longer the supply disruption persists, the faster the world's commercial reserves are being drawn down, analysts warned.

Day’s Ledger*

Economic Data

Japan July Economy Watchers Current Index

Corporate Actions

Earnings: AstraZeneca Pharma India, Ballarpur Industries, Bharat Forge, Bombay Dyeing & Mfg Company, Bosch, Hindustan Copper, KEC International, Vodafone Idea, Wockhardt, Zee Entertainment Enterprises

Policy

German Buba Monthly Report

Tickers to Watch

DELHIVERY net profit declined 65% y/y to ₹0.32 billion from ₹0.91 billion, while revenue from operations grew 28% to ₹29.31 billion from ₹22.94 billion.
EVEREADY INDUSTRIES net profit rose 23.3% y/y to ₹0.37 billion in the April-June quarter, while revenue from operations increased 9% to ₹4.08 billion.
NLC INDIA consolidated net profit declined 39.3% y/y to ₹4.84 billion from ₹7.98 billion, while revenue from operations rose 23.3% to ₹47.17 billion from ₹38.26 billion in the year-ago quarter.
NTPC GREEN ENERGY subsidiary NTPC Green Energy emerged as the successful bidder for 200 MW/800 MWh of standalone BESS projects in West Bengal at a discovered tariff of ₹4.35 lakh per MW per month.
OIL INDIA standalone net profit rose to ₹28.70 billion in the April-June quarter from ₹17.90 billion in the March quarter, supported by higher crude oil and natural gas revenues and stronger operating profitability.
OLA ELECTRIC MOBILITY net loss narrowed to ₹3.36 billion in the April-June quarter from ₹4.26 billion in the year-ago quarter, despite a sharp decline in revenue and a sequential improvement in vehicle registrations.
POWER FINANCE CORPORATION net profit rose 2.1% y/y to ₹70.12 billion from ₹68.66 billion for the April-June quarter.
TITAN COMPANY consolidated net profit rose 65% y/y to ₹16.99 billion from ₹10.30 billion, ahead of the CNBC-TV18 poll estimate of ₹12.67 billion, while revenue grew 24.3% to ₹181.01 billion but missed the ₹197 billion estimate.
VEDANTA ALUMINIUM METAL subsidiary Bharat Aluminium Company has been declared the preferred bidder for the Karlapat Bauxite Block in Odisha following an auction conducted by the state Directorate of Mines and Geology.

Must Read

(*Compiled from various media sources)

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