After Indonesia and Vietnam, Is India Next in Line for a Bad Deal?

India must proceed with extreme caution in negotiating any trade deal with the United States, given Trump administration’s current approach, Global Trade Research Initiative said in a note. 

US President Donald Trump’s unilateral declarations, such as claiming a “done deal” with Indonesia and saying India is “working along the same line”, often preempt actual negotiations. 

This was evident in the Vietnam case, where Trump announced a 20% tariff on Vietnamese goods as part of a supposed deal, while Vietnamese officials clarified they had only agreed to 11%. 

To avoid similar misrepresentation, India must insist on a jointly issued, written statement before acknowledging any agreement, GTRI President Ajay Srivastava said. 

Verbal assurances or informal understandings, especially those announced on social media—are no substitute for formal, verified commitments.

Moreover, Trump’s claim that the US will get full access to the Indonesian market at zero tariffs, while Indonesian exports will face a 19% duty in the US, raises red flags. If India were to accept such a lopsided arrangement, it could expose its domestic sectors especially dairy and agriculture to duty-free US goods while gaining little in return, said GTRI. 

A bad deal, especially one that removes India’s tariffs without reciprocal benefits, could be worse than no deal at all, it said. 

India must therefore negotiate transparently, guard against one-sided outcomes, and not succumb to pressure for quick, symbolic agreements that compromise long-term economic interests, said Ajay Srivastava.